Livdoc44

Keep in mind the US elections are over a year away,and any policies that would harm Ukraine would take another 3 months or so to have any serious effects on their conduct of the war. Having said that I believe Trump getting back in office is a dangerous thing, but Ukraine still has a decent amount of time before any significant change in US policy can do damage. 

Engineers: *also* bad at graphic design

Whoa, there buddy.
Both my wife and I are lifelong runners. She once described my legs to someone else as dangerously sexy. The same can be said of her. Even today at age 68, she has the legs of a 30 year old. (I'm 66 and we both still run). Last week I was halfway through a 5 mile run, passed a lady on the sidewalk, as I moved out into the street to pass her (I don't like brushing past people as they seldom here you coming and you can scare them half to death by saying "On your left"). Got about 50 feet past her, hopped back on the sidewalk, and she yells out "Great legs!!!"  
Still got it. 🙂
So, engineers CAN be sexy. Even retired ones.
Funny thing was I was right near my turnaround point so I got to run back past her face-to-face this time. She did not seem embarrassed in the least, just smiled and waved. 
Dave
PS - Our first date was a lunchtime run. We worked at adjacent companies. I ran to her front gate, we went for a nice run down by Long Island Sound, and chatted a lot along the way. Very public, so very safe. 

There was a popular joke during communism about a worker in a sewing machine factory, who was stealing parts from work and bringing them home to build a sewing machine for himself. Except he could not, because every time he tried to put the parts together he came up with a machine gun.
It was funny because it was true -there is a factory in Radom where they used to manufacture literally both weapons and sewing machines

The plot twists in the story of Wagner are just hilariously bad writing... 
 

👍 Lets hope it is fkn gone for good now, especially the rail-line.

First photo of allegedle strike on the bridge.

Russian navigation service of Kavkaz port (oppose to Kerch) warns all vessels in Kerch strait about mass attack
 
But Russian officials since some time has refuted explosions were on the bridge
 

Vlad Vexler has a recent take on this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UNmL4vhBAGA
His main points are that the drone strikes:
-provide a meaningful boost to Ukrainian morale by showing that Russia is at least getting a taste of their own medicine
-interfere with the Kremlin narrative that the war is not getting out of control
-make it harder for Putin to maintain a drawn out or frozen war, i.e. if Russia manages to freeze the war, Ukraine can intensify their strikes on Russia instead
 
 

From a biological/naturalistic point of view (since we’re going there) I think you can boil it down even further into a question of resources, whether physical (food, water, money, etc.), emotional (in large part linked to nutrition/food and other physical resources) or intellectual (knowledge and understanding or cultural substitutes for understanding, e.g. dogma).  And then even these resource types can be reduced to a question of energy (e.g. rational thinking being energy-intensive, well-fed people being able to ‘afford’ it, etc.).
The more basal parts of our brain ensure that, when we don’t have the energy or resources to support complex rationalisations and investment in the greater good, we revert to angry/fearful/aggressive states which at least work to ensure the individual’s survival, perhaps alongside immediate family and a few others.
When we do have the resources required to ensure that survival and comfort are not in doubt (or, at large scale and in a democracy, when enough of us do), we start to invest in relative luxuries like longer term thinking/actions and the greater good.  And when we do that we make slow, very irregular progress towards greater overall well-being.
 
Work to eliminate all types of poverty and watch humanity thrive. Trivial, no?

It is because of who we were…middle of the food chain.  Prey animals are driven by fear because it is necessary programming to survive.  We were right in the middle until we figured out how to 1) leverage energy, 2) communicate, and 3) lie to each other and ourselves.  Our big juicy brains allowed us to do this at an evolutionary escape velocity rate.
Good/bad, altruistic/selfish have no real scientific meaning - an eagle swooping in to kill another animal is not being anything morally, it is simply surviving.  We built social frameworks that allowed us to create social metrics such as good and evil…which are basically metrics of relative behaviours.  We are in fact both and will leverage them based on context.  In frames of certainty and safety we will act altruistically and “good”.  Pump in enough uncertainty and fear and we will start to eat each other in a surprisingly short period of time - see Hurricane Katrina.
People want to believe we are good because their sky-god or whatever made us that way but in reality “being good or evil” is an artificial set of conditions.  The role of government is to sustain frameworks of order and certainty so we stay within a “good” frame.
War is a collision of two or more social frameworks that creates a completely new environment along with a new set of social metrics.  “Being good” is killing other people.  Being good is committing suicide to save others so they can kill other people.  Being evil is to not kill other people and run away, or kill the wrong people.  War is also a state of massive uncertainty so we often see devolution happen very quickly.  Of course that is what military machines are all about - sustaining violence through order in a massive environment of fear and uncertainty.
 

For a different perspective:

If the USA invaded Mexcio to enact regime change and instead suffered a string of embarrassing defeats, lost an aircraft carrier, was forced to rely heavily on Blackwater only for them to attempt a coup and had lost it's military reputation along with international influence, narrative control and huge numbers of men and military hardware...

I don't think anyone would think the US was winning because they were squatting in the northern half of Chihuahua. They've still lost, incurring significant all-spectrum damage in the process.

Of course, Mexico might be unable to regain it's international borders and a frozen conflict might develop... but that isn't going to make the US less crippled and Mexico less undefeated.

I just found out Tikhiy, the hero who shot and killed 7 Russian Scum storming their position on the road of life to Bakhmut in this unbelievable GoPro video has lost his life, together with Zheka. Both from the Da Vinci Wolves of Honor Group.


 

This war is far from over. I think Ukraine has a hard task ahead of them. But, I also believe they will regain all their lost territory.

Old Dutch army video about crossing tank ditches:
Thread about tank ditches and how to make them:
Same thread but unrolled for non-twitterers:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1684859272276967428.html
 

Sorry, I'm not sure the whole thing had been posted already. I remember seeing only the end of it.
Anyway, this situation is 100% accurately simulated by CM (I know, I tried too often): rush your IFV with 'fast' into an enemy position, dismount and then die.
, di

The Chieftain's comments and some slides from "the conference on armored vehicle design" he attended. Some big hitters presenting
surprisingly interesting and informative video. Also on Ukraine-related matters:
some top-pick screenshots (Especially Ukraine related):
Ukrainian colonel presentation (some comment picks):
- Ukraine replacing lots of donated equipment antennas with anti-jam variants
- Old tanks like T-55 ext. have their place and are effective at what they do
- Ukraine battle management system is a combination of "Delta" a browser-based battle management system similar to US systems in combination with Discord servers.


 

Of course!
That is why we can't give Ukraine Javelins, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
Oh but that is why we can't give Ukraine HIMARS, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
Anyway, this is definitely why we can't give Ukraine tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.
But it definitely is why we can't give Ukraine proper air defense systems, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
This time though, this is why we can't give Ukraine Western tanks and IFVs, because Russia said it will nuke us. But wait, they didn't.
It is however most definitely why we can't give Ukraine long range missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.
And of course we can't give Ukraine the cluster ammo, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do. But wait, they didn't.
But this time. This time for sure! This time we can't help in any other way, whether it's the grain deal (also known as "Russia manufacturing famine in the third world", something Russia does for fun every once in a while) of jet fighters or more missiles, because Russia said it will nuke us if we do!
...
I took a tram in the city the other day, and saw a teenage girl with Ukraine pin on her backpack. She was wearing a glove over the stump where her right hand should be, and had some black cloth covering part of her thigh where something took out bunch of flesh. World doesn't need more of these.
But keep coming up with reasons why Russians should be left alone murdering and crippling more and more Ukrainians. Keep calling looking for solutions "bloodlust". I'm sure it's easy and fun thing to do. I wouldn't be able to look myself in the eyes, if I did, but you do you.

- In response to the current back and forth on the forum here -
With regards to certain enemy capabilities which we spend oh so much time discussing, I do not worry about it, though I respect it. It can be managed.  Personally, I (and many of my colleagues) are readier than ever to finally get into the fight and help win this. Everyday I wake up waiting for them to do something stupid and finally give NATO a clear, unambiguous, reason to intervene directly in this war. That’s the solider in me - - it hard to see all of our (combined) power not being used when everyday Ukrainians have to bear the burden alone (at least physically). That doesn’t sit right with me, never did. 
 
All of this to say I get it, it’s hard to watch this from the sidelines, whatever the reasons for that up to now. Still I read, learn about, and appreciate the challenges of leading the combined West through this crisis, with all of the diverse perspectives that it comes with. 
 
I trust the Alliance, and I trust the Ukrainian General Staff. I have my own opinions on what I would risk, which is more than current, but that isn't up to me. In the end, we are all on the same side here, let’s remember how important that is, even when it gets testy. 
 
 

I recall, when doing research for CM Cold War, I stumbled on a US Pentagon estimate that they expected to lose some 30% of their ground attack aircraft within the first two weeks of a 'hot' war. What would follow those losses I assume would have likely resembled current aircraft use over Ukraine today. Look back to reports on this thread of the staggering losses of Russian aircraft and crews over Ukraine the first third of the war. Each lost SU-27 cost approx $30 million USD. Overflying enemy airspace is an expensive proposition. And that was before Patriot showed up. I'm reminded of horrific US helicopter losses over Vietnam in the 1960s. After your 5,000th helicopter got shot down you might want to rethink your 'combined arms' theories.

I guess my problem with the whole “combined arms is their problem” narrative is that it misses the overall trend lines.  The RA was noted at the beginning of this war as failing to properly conduct combined arms.  This was a little odd as the Soviets essentially invented combined arms at scale and the RA was constructed around combined arms doctrine and concepts.  But we all agreed that “Russia Sux, LOLZ” and watched war porn streams with glee while yammering for “more Leopards!!”.
Now the UA on the offensive is also “failing to coordinate combined arms at scale” after extensive equipping and training by western forces.  So to my mind either two completely separate militaries coming at the problem have both mystically failed to grasp and execute the essentials of combined arms. Or there is something fundamentally changing about the concept of combined arms itself.
As to armchair quarter backing the UA in mid operations, well sure anyone with a podcast and a half decent academic background can nitpick.  It is called friction and it has always been in every war, forever.  Why?  Because human systems are filled with nasty human agency and perception, and error.  To point to a slow operational offensive “because units missed timelines” is weak and amateur analysis.  The biggest problem with trying to get professional assessments is that those able to do them are in the game and not going to speak publicly about what is actually going on.  What that means is that the calculus of this war remains opaque until the thing is over for a few years and we can get access to what actually happened - “How Did This Thing Get Hot?” thread coming hopefully soon.
The rest is academics and pundits trying to promote a bunch of angles.  We heard the same stuff at Bakhmut, Kherson and in the early days.  The fundamental questions are more along the lines of “can the UA translate corrode to breakout without air power as we knew it?”  “Has Defensive Primacy actually happened (again)?” “What the hell is happening with mass?” 
This is not pro-Ukrainian copium either.  The reality may be simply that offensive operations in this war do not work anymore.  We could be looking at the beginning of a frozen conflict line a la Korea.  But why offensive operations may not work is not because a UA unit had their map upside down anymore than when the RA stopped using their tanks as tanks and made VBIEDs out of them.
That all said, my own assessment is that this still feels like shaping.  I nice little feel up before heading to paradise.  It lasted for at least two months at Kherson.  I suspect we have the rest of the summer with this weird Grade 9 gym dancing until something gives and the UA drops the hammer and goes for it.  In fact we have not seen a full scale formation offensive yet - as has been noted - the reason is more likely because conditions have not been set.  Now another big question is “are the UA shaping or leg humping?”  Well given the C4ISR differences between the two forces my money is still on operational shaping, but we will have to wait and see.

The question facing military professionals everywhere out of this war are:
- "What is unique to this war?"
- "What is universal to all future wars?"
We had a whole thread going on the General Forum on development of warfare over the 19th century and I believe modern militaries are facing a similar conundrum.
"How would NATO do in this war?"  Well it depends which side we are going to be.  As Ukraine against Russia we would likely have seen a shorter sharper war but the costs would have been a serious shock to the western world. [note: let's not get dragged into another nuclear equation discussion, we can just put that one to the side]  We are talking likely tens of thousands of casualties and a lot of expensive kit lost.  Why?
- Air superiority.  I do not know what this means in a modern context.  A2AD capability is rapidly becoming distributed and highly portable.  We may have been able to gain air superiority over 20,000 feet but below that we would have been taking serious losses as there is not such thing as SEAD for MANPADs basically everywhere.  Modern MANPADs and IADs can operate independently all over the battlefield.  Further they can deny airspaces at much higher altitudes and higher ranges.  Why?  Because while we were stonking Iraq, Libya, Serbia and a bunch of dirt farmers in Afghanistan competing states were taking notes and investing heavily in the tech.  Take away our air supremacy and the western way of warfare is immediately in trouble.  And, shocker, places like Iran really don't like us and do not want to be invaded.
Below 20,000 feet it is the freakin wild west right now.  I do not care how many lasers we strap on every tank, IFV or truck.  I do not care how much EM is pumped into space - birds f#ucked up for the next 20 years.  Unmanned systems are 1) cheap, 2) highly effective and 3) everywhere.  Whether they are doing ISR or strike they have changed the fabric of warfare between about 3 to 20,000 feet...and they are just getting started.  Air superiority below 20,000 feet does not exist as a concept right now.  Hell we lost it below 2000 feet in Iraq to freakin ISIL, who were basically the lowest bar one can get with respect to conventional warfare.   If we were fighting the RA the UAS problem would be extremely costly...as in freakin nations pulling out after losing too many people, costly.  Can anyone imagine if the Taliban got their hands on this tech and started dropping old cluster munitions right on our heads back in the COPs and FOBs?  I slept for weeks about 200m from a 50,000 gallon fuel bladder that was resting under an open sky ...let that sink in.
So what?  Well "wither goest Air Superiority" is one of the biggest questions of this war, and as you can see it is a multi-dimensional one.
- C4ISR.  Russia does not have a world class C4ISR architecture.  But even with what they do have the principle of "making them go dark" to establish C4ISR superiority - far more important in this day and age then any domain superiority - is also in question.  With everything being a sensor hooked into crazy comms and networks - hell with hotspotting everything can be a node in a comms network.  So I am not even sure how to make an opponent go dark anymore (see unmanned).  I am sure we got people working on it but the fact that an even poorly armed opponent can see me tens of kms out makes me nervous.  Worse, they can see my logistics train as well.  The fact they can record all this and stream it all over the planet in real time turns really concerns me.  A half decent opponent would be broadcasting every screw up and horror show, which makes sustainment of national will a big problem.
- PGM.  Artillery, ATGM...insert whatever nightmare comes next.  No one is ready to face this.  I cannot begin to imagine trying to do an obstacle crossing when my opponent can hit me at 3-4kms with an 80% success rate with ATGM.  "Oh that is ok, we have APS"...fantastic, right up until someone comes up with workarounds like sub-munitions or EFP.  And even if we do magically put bubble wrap around ourselves, nothing on earth can stop artillery round that can land directly on my head.  Oh and this is while I am still trying to deal with old stuff like mines, and new stuff like UAS.
All of that  adds up to some very disconcerting calculus.  As in "is combined arms dead as we know it?" type of calculus (someone is going to try and answer this, someone always does...just don't bother.  I do not post my mil quals for some very good reasons but trust me when I say no one has this figured out yet).
Now here is the punchline: this is all if we were fighting Russia.  I, frankly, am far less concerned about fighting Russia - now more than ever.  I am very worried about fighting Ukraine.  If we get stuck on the wrong side of a proxy war and our opponent is armed with C4ISR, PGM and A2AD like Ukraine is right now, we are in very serious trouble. 
"Well we just won't fight those wars."  Ya, that is not how it works.  We don't get to choose the wars we decide to fight, gawd that is a post-Cold War perception that needs to die, and fast.  This is the nightmare scenario and I do not know if you guys have been paying attention but we kinda been doing a lot of expeditionary operations in all sort of places to push the brand.  What happens when Chinese space based ISR start lighting us up?  We wind up in a hybrid fight with the other side armed with HJ-12s?
I do not know.  This is a big reason when [insert talking head] says "Ukraine needs to do this"  "We need to give them that"...and the war will be over in a week.  My advice is to stop listening.  No one in the west has been in a war like this since Korea and the freakin needle has moved miles since Korea.  I say this without hyperbole, we are going to be spending the rest of this century trying to figure this all out as things like UGVs start coming online.  Tell your (grand) kids to get into the sciences of killing because it is a major growth industry.  For now, the best we can do is watch and learn.  Both the UA and RA are feeling their way through a war unlike any we have seen before.   

An interesting and educational video recently released by Veritasium on fireworks illustrates the impact of confining an explosive quite nicely (see around 6-8 minutes and the 12:34)
 

I'm reading a book I found in my local library which contains citations from letters home, stories from soldiers and quite a few poems as well. This book is surprisingly good and I'll buy it when I've read this copy from the library.
https://i.ibb.co/G2h40SC/Screenshot-20230716-205839-Firefox.jpg
Among the poems is one written by a man named Charles Pritchard Clayton which I think could have been written by a Ukrainian serving on the front today if any of them writes poems.

Dedication Before Battle

Legions of better men than I
Have died that freedom I might have
Shall I, because I dare not die,
Condemn my son to be a slave?

My life is forfeit to the past,
No favour will I ask or give.
But, steeled in purpose to the last,
Gladly to die if freedom live.

To be straight with you, as I reflex on this point, and not to be obtuse, I understand it depends in full on whether they are right or acute.

Really courageous one by the way ! He is a medic if I remember rigth.