fireship4

Mark Galleoti read out the relevant law in an episode of 'In Moscow's Shadow's', and IIRC, he made the point that it says such structures are illegal if they act against the state.
 
Either you are mixing your metaphors or I will avoid Polish cheese.  Perhaps it could ferment some ideas, or curdle some suspicions

Follow up…ok, I think I have got the only solution that makes any sense: Putin and Prig are in love but cannot admit it to each other or themselves.  Only a rom-com scenario makes any sense in what we have seen - hear me out (and yes I am sober as I type this) 
Prig and Putin have known each other for years - him a working class ex-con trying to go straight, Putin a golden haired princess who is so lonely at the top.  They have been sharing stolen glances and smiles for years but neither has the courage…their worlds are too far apart.  Prig is desperate to get Putin to really see him, instead of a boom box outside in the rain he rolls up to Moscow with T90s and MLRS.  It was a romantic gesture of the highest order.  A demonstration of power and masculinity while being vulnerable at the same time.
Putin, like a sexy fox, flees to St Petersburg to hold up with a couple girlfriends…he can’t cope with all this - it is too much too fast.  He is into Prig but the man is both intoxicating and terrifying.  Putin throws out threats but he really does not mean them, inside his heart is pounding - should he?  He mustn’t.  He is so confused right now.  Should he call in airstrikes or run out on the M4 into his man’s arms?
Prig is wailing into the night with an electric guitar (and AD systems), he is in love so hard it hurts.  He bashes out With or Without You by U2…Russia holds it breath, the two star crossed lovers both in love and hate at the same time.  They resent each other for making that love into something that threatens to consume them both.  Finally Lushenko, a girlfriend to both from way back I the day talks them both off the ledge - “you are both love struck fools, stop now before you say something you cannot take back!”
Prig realizes it first.  Putin is a fox to be lured and must feel in control.  Prig has come on too strong.  He dials it back, goes back to the dorm and tells all the guys “he totally scored” but inside he is tortured by the waiting game.  
Putin has fooled himself that he is back in charge but deep inside knows it is too late.  He says strong words but everyone at work knows the truth - FFS would they just do it already.  Their love is self-destructive and wholly doomed but neither can look away - it is a storm that must happen….to be continued.

Just for arguments' sake. Could this stranger than strange day have underlying motives like these..
 
Putin and Prigozjin have been friends all along and still are. Never any real danger for either!
Prigozjin told his friend Putin that he wants to leave Ukraine (because he knows his "superior" Wagnerarmy is being massacered and if he stays he loses everything) and needs a way out.
Lukashenko is considered by both to be a growing liability and needs someone close by as a guard against roque behaviour. Wagner in Belorussia gives also more pressure on Ukraine.
Any diversion from the almost endless bad news producing Ukranian-fiasco is welcome. Any diversion.
In order to reveal where possible adversaries are, creating a very confusing scenario where people will (have to) show where their loyalties lie, can do the trick. (Stalin was very good at that.) Those who support a "mutinous situation" will be registered, and dealt with later on.
As long as it will be clear who the final victor is (Putin), a "threatening" situation is not bad in the long run, because the people will remember that Putin still wins, even in very difficult situations.
Test the loyalty, willingness and capabilities of the Army in case of a coup, without it being a real coup.
Be as Machiavellian as can be in order to "divide and conquer". Show fake weakness, trick, deceive, maskerade, lie. Be silent where people expect you to speak, do nothing where people expect you to act decisively. Make as much chaos as possible, because in the end that will benefit you.
Winning in Ukraine? Stop NATO from growing? Restoring Russia's Greatness?
Who cares? There is only one thing that matters, and that is staying in power.
 
 

Couldn't resist:
Also, fascinating to see at least one voice on Twitter insist that the MoD will win because it has more soldiers, more tanks, more etc than Wagner. Seriously? Have people not been paying attention to the last year and a half?

Also also, looks like Wagner is going on all in and upgrading from mutinty to coup:
 

RU Nat joke about that video of old farts chat
The Hero of Russia in the company of several other Heroes of Russia in an attempt to find two Heroes of Russia chats with two deputies of Heroes of Russia, who are also Heroes of Russia.

Current RU liberals joke:
What is going now? Bald [guy] from Brazzers went against Brazzers 

We are at HQ. 7:30 in the morning. Under [our] control military object of Rostov including airfield, airplanes that [are supposed] take off for combat work are taking off normally [implies they do not block these airplanes], no problems, medical airplanes take off normally, no problems. All we did we took control so assault avitaion [helicopters] do not strike us but UKR only. Main HQ-main point of troops control works normally, there is no problems at all, not a signle officer is taken from his duties. So, when they say to you that PMC Wagner disrupted the work [of HQ] and because of that something at front lines collapsed - [no] something collapsed at frontline not because of that. When we came here we again confirmed [discovered confirmation] a lot of new [things] [he clearly misspoke, it supposed to be - a lot of old thing]. A lot of territory is lost, a 3-4 times more [RU] soldiers dead than it is reported to higher ups [implies Putin], and what is reported is 10 times les than they say on TV [clearly misspoke again], medical losses [losses from all causes] in some days up to 1000 men per day. This is KIA, WIA, MIA + refusniks who refuse not because they are cowards but because see no other exit from situation. There is no ammo, there is no control . Chief of General Staff ran away from here as soon as he heard that we were approaching the building [let a woman pass greeted armed man who I believe is RU soldier not Wagnerite. The soldier impolitely turns away, Pri slightly humiliated turn to camera]

it is the same video. Here are main points
Evkurov and Alekseyv are old farts who decide nothings Prig - they shoot at us, we down them and will down everybody you would send because you are hitting civilians. You just destroyed a bus with civilians. you have no conscience [looks like they talk about RU helicopter attacks. Everybody is calm, MOD guys are calm and curious] Evkurov [a bit confused] - it is first time i hear it and [inaudible - some thing like let us..interupted as Prig turns toward Alekseyev] Alekseyev [in hilariously theatrical way] - I am not going to talk to you! Prig [slightly confused and humiliated old man turn to Evkurov] We were talking using You [plural - respectable form] why we started using You [singular - not respectable form]. Why do you talk to me using You [singular]?  Evkurov [confused] Nobody talk [to you] like that. I say do not generalize. Do you talk [to me] using You [plural] Prig - Yes, I talk to you using You [plural] Evkurov - so if we say [inaudible] Prig nodes. Evkurov - Let's think what we should do Prig - One more time, we came here to get [saying a bit theatrical] a chief of general staff and Shoigu. While they are not here...  Alekseyev [theatrically joking] take/grab them [like saying they, people of RU MOD, do not need these two, so Prig is free to take them]  Prig - While they are not here, we stay here and [continue to] block Rostov Evkurov [absolutely calmly, softly and politely but bit confused]- then I would like to ask you to get your troops out [inaudible] Prig - No! No way. Guys will stay here.  Evkurov - We also from this point of view... Prig - We do interrupt you from controlling the troops [in the field] Evkurov - Yes, certainly you should not interrupt anybody from controlling the troops [inaudible] Prig [calmly] Guys are dying because you are pushing them to be meat  Evkurov pickups ringing phone while saying to Prig - This is a question... Prig - This is not rhetorical question, because you are pushing them to be meet... no ammo, no thinking, without any plans   Evkurov to phone - hallo, yes [listens a bit, then looks confused and cancels the call - looks like some jornos called him] Alekseyev [calmly] - the biggest thing that upsets me most [inaudible something like you give Kiev something to celebrate with champaign] Prig - Nothing to worry about Evkurov [calmly drinks hot tea as if they are at old farts gathering] Prig - party at Kiev with champaign happens when you abandon Izum, Lyman and everything else. That's when party at Kiev happens for a whole week. And we are not running away from anywhere [Says man who ran away from Bakhmut]. Tha't why we came here to stop the shame of the country we live in. This is first [I  wanted to say] Evkurov [a bit ashamed] - [iaudible] are you were at [or ours something] Prig - Certainly, Yes, for this we Evkurov - [iaudible] why questions [could be to us] Prig [getting agitated] - listen one more time, if we would talk in normal tone, we would not come here on tanks Somebody behind camera - [iaudible something about shells - you promised us shells] Evkurov - [iaudible something like - you think Shoigy and Gerasimov to blame?] Prig [satisfied] - Yes, absolutely right. We save Russia The whole performance remind me old farts from last coupe (GKCHP) in 1991. The old farts pretending they know what they are doing and serving as cover for Yetsin rise. 
 

🤣🤣🤣
 
 

Also some very interesting, if not yet confirmed info from the Belarus:
 

Cripes, I take off into the bush for a couple  months and look what happens!
Well, cue up some vintage RU doomer rock, circa 1991. Plus ca change....
1. Big, if true....
 2.  Voronezh....
 
(Bellingcat, I think, so reliable?)

More details on what Biden said at a campaign event earlier this week. I'll paste in the parts in some way related to Ukraine:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/06/19/remarks-by-president-biden-at-a-campaign-reception-atherton-ca/
 
 
 

I would strongly recommend reading it, just depraved **** occurring to civilians, POWs in Russian custody.

Burn the orcs, burn every last one of them.

Regarding the morale of the Russian army, here is an unverified interview with a Russian officer that I still feel is credible. The interview (or rather phone conversation) is a reaction from an officer to a previous piece that included statements from other RU officers who criticized Putin's speech during meetings with RU Nat reporters.
It is lengthy, but I believe it is necessary to transcribe it in its whole in order to convey an impression of the real RU army morale and mentality now. 
 

As you know, yesterday during a visit of African delegation of seven presidents, Russians conducted combined missile strike on Kyiv. During this strike delegation was in Bucha and sat in the shelter. 
Interesting how Russian propaganda and media several times changes shoes in flight
Air raid alarm in Ukraine - Russian TGs:
Mass attack. Combo of cruise and ballistic missiles, if we will trust to monitoring channels. I think, that today is the same day, when we decided that no more visitors to Ukriane! 
  
Suddenly, they find out this is African "peace initiative" delegation, which next day will meet Putin. Rhetoric  changes itself - this is staged attack to show Africans how Russians are bad and what they are murderers!

Very stupd statement of SAR press-secreter only fed the flame of Russian conspiracy. This guy was very surprised, that during or after air raid on the steets of Kyiv there are many people and he didn't heard any explosions

Today's official Russian MoD statement issued by RIA Novosti: "In Friday Russian Federation has conducted a strike at one of decision making center of AFU with precision long range maritime- and aerial-based weapons. The objectives are completed, the target was hit"

UKR AD report
6 Kalibrs, 6 Kinzhals were shot down (96th AD brigade thr best!) on approaches to Kyiv. We heard only several sistant explosions. Though, interesting, that weren't reports aboput MiG-31K take off, Kinzhal carriers. There were several photos of missile trails in Brinask oblast raising from the ground, so maybe it could be Iskander-M, but if Russian MoD now says about "aerial-based missiles", so this were Kinzhals, because no Tu-95 were in the air in this time  
Alas, fragments of missiles destroyed three private houses in Vyshhorod district (north from Kyiv) and fell down on small truck on the road. Seven civilains were injured.
 

 

Yes, but in a current war against a peer enemy can you even hope to shape the environment to the extent that a breaching vehicle is reasonably safe, with so many threats able to reliably kill a tank? Or do you have to have say a 20 of those hugely expensive monsters breaching side to side to have a hope than a few will live long enough to deliver a lane? We are not going to see the second variant in Zaporozhe, that's for sure
 
PS As a side note, the inevitably sad fate of "The Solitary Breacher" struck me as very romantic and waiting for its Wordsworth.  Something along the lines: "Will no one tell me why it burns?/Perhaps the engine covers glow/due to some well-aimed PGMs/ or bomb, delivered from a drone"

Russia should do everyone a favour and use the threat of civil war as an excuse to pull everyone out.  Before it isn't an excuse.

Russia should do everyone a favour and use the threat of civil war as an excuse to pull everyone out.  Before it isn't an excuse.

Russia should do everyone a favour and use the threat of civil war as an excuse to pull everyone out.  Before it isn't an excuse.

Russia should do everyone a favour and use the threat of civil war as an excuse to pull everyone out.  Before it isn't an excuse.

We know for a fact that some od the Dutch F-16s have been undergoing additional maintenance/ upgrades since late 2022. It might very well be that Uncle Sam could send something really really modern (just keeping the F-16 myth alive would be worth it). If some airframes would come with the SABRs, the overall picture would change dramatically, and not to VVS advantage.
 

They are not comparable. On paper Aegis is supposed to have far better performance. See the pic below. Patriot PAC3 is a terminal phase interceptor with very short window of opportunity to intercept SRBM and MRBM (see the blue dots there?), Patriot's speed is too low to work on an IRBM.

 
The yellow Aegis BMD line in the graphic seems to be representing RIM-161 SM3,  an Exo-atmospheric interceptor.
As you can see , the right end of the yellow line does not extend to the x-axis, because SM3 doesn’t work in Endo-atmospheric. That makes this graphic a little misleading as the SM2 and SM6, two Endo-atmospheric interceptors deal with terminal phase interception also belong to Aegis BMD. They have better performance compared to Patriot PAC3, although they will have trouble to deal with IRBM.
 
Put hypersonic weapon hypothesis, Kh-47 kinzhal is just an air launched Iskander SRBM with a limited maneuverability MaRV . It’s flight profile might be very similar to DF-21D and YJ-21 ASBM, but I guess DF-21D is the hardest to be intercepted due to its terminal speed. There is no way for Patriot PAC3 to intercept a DF-26B, an IRBM with anti-ship roles. That’s when you need SM3 to intercept before the RV from the IRBM dive into the terminal phase.
 
So far there is no indication that the HGV from DF-17 has the anti-ship capability. But due to the HGV’s flight profile, it will make the detection very very hard, and it is also operating on upper edge of the atmosphere so SM3 is useless in the face of this threat. Also due to its flight profile, HGV won’t have a great potential energy to convert into speed at terminal phase, so THAAD and SM6 should be able to intercept that but it is still too fast and maneuver for Patriot PAC3. We don’t have any open source to study on this, this is just my guess
 
Anyway, the key to successfully intercept a ballistic missile is not about the interceptor missile’s performance, its more about early warning, detection and classification.  There are some discussions on this topic in Matrix game forum CMO section, I can see if I can find the discussion.

Things are becoming hotter and hotter. I'm still struggling with time. But hopefully, it will improve shortly.
I believe you have seen the recent Prig video with the map. Based on what Prig stated, I decided to add a few notes to the map. Although it is Prig, it is really interesting, and I believe it will help you understand what is going on in the Bakhmut area.
It can be a little confusing and crammed at times, but if you examine each block carefully, it should be straightforward enough.
Number 1

Number 2

Number 3

Number 4

I have a few comments but due to lack of time I will post them later.