fireship4

Ok so this is better how?  Are you telling me they picked up on the UA planning a Kharkiv offensive weeks ahead of time...and did sweet FA to stop it?!  Aaand we are back to broken operational military system.  Look I am sure these RU Nat volunteers are true believers and really cagey tough guys; however, if they have been part of this debacle then I am a little less than concerned about them walking out of a phonebooth and becoming a super army.
If they can surprise...they had better start doing it.  If this clown show picks a fight with the EU, it will escalate to NATO and frankly from what I have seen we could cut thru what is left of the RA - RU Nat volunteers included like **** through a short goose in a long weekend.
The references you are making are making it look worse for them.  They saw but were unable to do anything about the UA taking back what is now being reported 6000 sq kms, in a week.  I don't care if these guys are each super-soldiers who can do one handed chin-ups with no hands - their operational level ISR, C2 and logistics suck well beyond repair in the timeframes of this war.  They are going to be living proof that dedication and belief comes second to hot steel in the right place and right time.
And what if they are really in league with the mole people and conduct a sub-terrainian flanking?!  Like I said these a$$hats are well positioned to pull of a nasty insurgency/guerilla war in the LNR-DPR - maybe, if local support holds.  Beyond that they are living in fragmented...and getting more fragmented by the day, military organization.  What is likely to stop the UA at this point...is the UA.  They are going to need to re-set logistical lines and consolidate but so far from what I have seen the RA is not part of this equation.
In reality these clowns have the making of a VEO network that will go underground and make everyone miserable once this thing is over.  Good thing we have about 20 years worth of experience hunting humans in this context.
I gotta be honest, I am really tired of the freakin "boogy man of the week" right now.  We are jumping out of our seats because everything is really dangerous and really scary:
- The Russian Army with all that hardware
- The Black Sea Fleet & the Russian Air Force
- Spetznaz and Wagner clowns
- Russian cruise and hypersonic missiles
- Russian cyber Pearl Harbour 
- Some General Jack-in-the-Box who was a jerk in Syria.
- Russians parked around a nuclear power plant.
- Nukes!!
- the Russian 3rd Corp
- Russian mobilization!! - the other hand coming out.
- Russian escalation dominance.
- RU Nats - whoever the hell they really are
- Ukraine is going to fall
- Ukraine is going to hold on but the war will still be on when my grandkids graduate from college
- Ukraine can't possible take in all this kit and hold on.
- Ukraine can defend but could never pull off an attack
I have to be missing something.  Every week in this war we find something be be scared of, and it has all turned out to be complete and utter BS.  How about we look at the situation, as it unfolded for what it is - a historic military debacle that is likely to break the current Russian regime.  It was doomed from the start, and has only gotten worse.  Sure things could still swing and will likely get uglier but the RA in Ukraine is in death throws - it is keeling over to die, not coiling like a steel spring.  All war is negotiation and right now the Russians are negotiation just how ugly this loss is going to be.
Unless these RU Nats come with an entirely revitalized equipment fleet and logistics backbone to support it, a competitive integrated ISR system, and a completely new military doctrine...you will excuse me if I am not worried.   
 
 

As funny as it is, it is from a TV/film set. Somewhere on Twitter someone posted a picture of him with a clapper board in front of his face but I can't find it now. But that is why the pedestrians aren't acting realistically.
EDIT: found it
 

That's because in Australia democracy is deeply rooted in the mentality of society - you treat people you elect as temporary managers, not as "strong leaders" you grant an absolute power to "lead" (e.g. do whatever they want with the country). So of course you are not mentally stuck with a familiar face, you want change.
In Ukraine we still have remnants of mental trauma from imperialism like that - like people electing the same mayor for 15+ years straight simply because... well... he's kinda a local feudal everybody knows - and the more he stays - the more he's treated as an inherent part of the land in question. Presidents are, thankfully, not so lucky.

seems the difference is that in the chucks map areas vacated by the Russians are presumed to be under Ukrainian control. While many other mark it as unknown or neutral.

Small Jomini update,
I wonder how every collaborator in the post invasion territory feels at this point? Can't be good watching Russia melt away.
 

"The sides share the understanding that democracy is a universal human value, rather than a privilege of a limited number of States, and that its promotion and protection is a common responsibility of the entire world community."
The quote is from the document billindc linked above. Ii would be hilarious if there wasn't a genocidal war under way in Ukraine, and a a mere genocide or three underway in China, conducted by the signatories. Pretty much tells you how much faith to put in the rest of it. 
We will know as much about that meeting as the Five Eyes intelligence services want to tell us. There is literally no point in even skimming what China and Russia put out.
EDIT: I mean some poor bleeps in various foreign ministries have to read it, but I suspect the need strong coffee and stronger stomachs...

Fanciful speculation:
Putin seeing that things are looking less likely to end well for himself, quietly transfers a portion of his personal wealth to China.  During his visit with Xi, he decides he enjoys China so much that he will stay there and step down pre-emptively thus vastly improving his life expectancy.  
I would imagine other Russian operatives would be reluctant to mess with him in China.  China benefits internationally  from assisting in regime change that offers a pathway to de-escalation.
 

Best advice I ever got:  strategy is not about good or bad, it is about bad and worse.
A “good enough” Tsar would be sufficient at this point.  

In practice (and in business context), I have found that strategy is about screening out the many great ideas we are NOT going to expend our time and treasure pursuing. That may actually be a variant of your definition. 🤔

Here's the thing...Xi holds every single card here. Russian gas is badly situated for China's market and years/billions in investment away from being...even then...a pricey alternative to what they have. Russia doesn't have much of anything China wants and is a shrinking percentage of China's foreign trade...especially compared with the US and EU. Russia is also a would be competitor in Central Asia and has differing interests in Southwest Asia, Africa, etc. 
Russia's value to China was as a distraction to and a thorn in the side of the US and the EU. Xi needed the latter to have a big, dangerous security threat that could be activated to disperse their forces. In short, Russia was supposed to be Xi's pitbull. The dog might be still vicious but it's turned out to also be decrepit and the US is, through Ukraine, knocking its teeth out.
So what does Xi do? I think close to nothing. A Russia that is more Austria-Hungary than useful is not worth investing in. China will do the bare minimum to maintain Russia's territorial integrity while asking the world in return in terms of trade deals, diplomatic access to the -stans and ultimately economic control in the Russian Far East. Unequal Treaties can go the other way, in time.

Not directly related to the recent military offensive, but something that might be interesting to people looking at the Kremlin palace intrigue is that there is a meeting of SCO (China's wannabe NATO) coming up on September 15/16. Despite increasing COVID lockdowns at home, it's now been confirmed that Xi will attend in his first foreign trip since the pandemic began. Putin and Modi are on track to be there too.
There's not much concrete news about the summit yet, but a lot of rumors. Putin has said he will meet Xi one-on-one, and surely Ukraine will be part of that discussion. My guess is that Putin might seek support from Xi in cementing his grip on power. I still don't think China will step into this war, but the party is good at propping up foreign dictators, and could spin it as some kind of benevolent regional security agreement (see Solomon Islands). I don't know enough about domestic Russian politics to understand how that might be received there, but I'd be interested to hear from people with a stronger background in the topic. I also wonder what Xi would get out of any potential deal. Certainly not good press in the west. Flip side - Xi might prefer to play hardball with Putin to try earn enough goodwill to see some of Biden's sanctions and tariffs dropped.

RU (Pegov) reports that UKR might enter Belohorivka
Map

me looking at map

 

Couldn't choose better 48h to go (mostly) offline. Let's get started with a bit of humor:

Yes, but that intervention would quite likely occur before any nukes were even launched. And possibly with Russian connivance.  Make of that what you will.
*****
....Escalation is a deep rabbit hole and my appetite for such what-ifs is pretty limited.  But here is my own view, worth everything you paid for it:
1.  I see no signs that the actual men in actual charge in actual Russia today are up for nuclear war, collectively or individually.  The evil is banal, not mad.
2.  Intellectually, Putin is a product of the Soviet technocracy (their 'PMC'). He has amassed supreme power by coldly and systematically pulling its levers for the benefit of his clique. Those levers include using the legacy Soviet military machine in his own backyard, with its adventurism fueled by cyclical resource windfalls. Why not, it's sitting there idle and rusting?
Like most such apparatchiks (not just Russians btw), he has no actual notion of how to create capital, only how to scheme to control and expend existing capital.
3.  Philosophically, while Putin is clearly in earnest about '(re)gathering the Russian lands' (a standard Russian view, not something he invented), and also believes the Motherland is by default menaced by the rest of humanity, there is nothing at all in his emotional makeup or observed personal behaviour to suggest a Hitler monomania or messianism, Russian flavoured or otherwise.
The man doesn't especially enjoy speechifying, kissing babies, or the sound of his own voice in small crowds, or the company of others. He does get a smug satisfaction from triggering others, but it's a catlike kind of emotion, carefully bounded.  He's INTJ, a calculating introvert.

4. Putin knows now he miscalculated terribly when Ukraine didn't fold on Day 3. His Martingale double dow bets with the war machine had worked up to then, and finally they didn't.
Since then, he has been scrambling to salvage whatever he can by using up the rest of what blood and treasure he started with, bluff and divide his enemies wherever he can, and hoping he can outlast ________________. 
5. Putin is 70 and ailing. I suspect he is resigned to dying in a couple of years, and like most of us old folks does not especially fear it.
Again, there is nothing in the man's visible persona to suggest he wants a legacy that includes triggering doomsday -- or more likely failing foolishly if he tried -- even if he had nothing else to lose. He is not the Mad King.
FWIW

No significant updates yet. But there is interesting post
 
It describes possible UKR intent for the whole Izum offensive operation:

UKR capture/block Kupyanks UKR Advance from Dolyna area toward Oskil cutting several roads from Izum UKR destroy few bridges And the whole RU Izum grouping is in zh*pa.  

Fresh map

[UPDATE]
Another assessment
[UPDATE] RU source reports the situation is extremely fluid today. The frontline will jump back and forward. He is going offline so most probably the next update we will see tomorrow.

Excellent article and a good reminder on how to interpret maps. Thanks for posting it here.

This is sign of "Bratstsvo" ("Brotherhood") party, established by Dmytro Korchynskyi, excentric and  scandal  firgure in UKR politic in 90th. Korchynskyi was one of UNA-UNSO founders - nationalistic paramilitary organization, which was very popular in right spectre at the begining of 90th. Later inside UNA-UNSO conflict is happened, because it leaders had each own vision of paramilitary national movement and Korchynskyi left this organization. 
His political credo is "permanent turmoil" - he believs, permanent well-being and satiety of society lead to degradation of passionarity and this as result lead to degradation of the nation, so to keep society in tonus, it need in permanent stresses - protests, revolutions, wars etc. Korchynskyi positioned ideology of own "Bratstvo" party as christianity revolutianry national-anarchism. Also he adheres (or adhered in not far past) to the ideology of pan-slavism, but unlike Russians he believes that exactly Ukraine have to be a center of slavic world, so from there are "third Rome" and "Byzantine cross" as their party signs. Interesting that in 1992, during the war in Transnistriya, Korchynskyi personally led UNA-UNSO fighters, which fought on the side of Transnistriya, together with Russians , "protecting Ukrainan population against Great Romaina ideology". But during the war in Georgia in the same 1992, he supported Georgians angians Russians in Abkhazia, "protecting Ukrainain interests and friendly Georgian people against Russian imperialism".  
Need to say at the begining of 2000th Korchynskyi was an ally of Russian Euro-Asian ideology of Dugin. And interestingly, that deputy of Korchynskyi in his party was Oleksiy Arestovych, who also had maney meetings with Dugin and his  folowers. There was information, that "Bratstvo" was hired by Viktor Medvedchuk, but it is a fact during Orange Revolution in 2004, Korchynskyi and his party actively fought against Yishchenko and pro-western course of Ukraine. After Orange Revolution won, in the frames of own "permanent turmoil" philosophy (and likely for Medvedchuk and Yanukovich money) Korchynskyi has made a political bloc with the same loud-crying marginals from "Progressive socialists party of Natalia Vitrenko" - radical left anti-Ukrainian party. In next several years they together had been conducting many anti EU and anti-NATO actions in Ukraine. 
But close to 2013 either Korchynskyi turned ot unnecessary for Yanukovich regime or he, followig to "permanent turmoil" ideology decided to change a side, but in 2013 his force supported Revolutin of Dignity, though in own manner - exactly his people provoked force variant in first day of revolution, wich finished with bloody beating of protesters. When the war began in 2014, Korchynckyi's paty established volunteer unit  "Rota Isusa Khrysta" (Jesus Christ Company), which fought together with Azov, libarating Mariuopol. Further this unit was converted to special police battalion "Sviata Mariya" (St.Mary), which was disbanded in 2016. Now "Bratstvo" probably established air-recon volunteer unit, but I don't know under which subordination. 
Interestingly that in 2016 Korchynskyi said  "Main crime of Russians - they didn't let us to complete our revolution. We havn't played enough barricades yet. So, now insurgents are forced to waste own energy, fighting eith intervents"

A final solution if you will?
You guys don't know what you are saving.
Everything you and @kraze are saying about the Russian ex-pat population could be right in general, and similar things can be said about other populations - 'Muslims' for example.  They can be said about the Ukrainians - infected with the Western ideology, they cannot see how it harms the Slav.  Harsh measures are necessary.
So you've imported a large number of people and they have their own culture, and they largely stick together and don't atomise into the larger culture.  They don't seem make themselves available to the ideas and mechanisms our culture has which influence behaviour.  Ideas like human rights, freedom of choice, open criticism, advocating the truth over the interests of your tribe - changing ideas which can always be improved.
So you made a mistake and think you have damaged this Western culture by importing too many who act upon different principles.  Bad luck.  You do more damage to it by throwing them out.  Fix the problem another way - if they have citizenship they are now part of you, and how you treat them is how you can be treated.
[And as far as I can see it McCarthy was not a hero and did damage which echoes until the present day, even if he was right in some cases about Soviet agents.  A committee to scrutinise the political beliefs of workers which then bans them from work if they fail?  It is against the very notion of discussion and criticism toward better ideas.  It sounds more Soviet than anything else.  And you guys sometimes sound like the other ones.]

Nice on the ground reporting, though dated 18 August, from the battered Black Sea city of Mikolaiev and the nearby Kherson front.
https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v44/n16/james-meek/blast-effects
 
(I have no idea how to insert a quote box unless it's a quote from another post) 
 

It is gift that never stops giving - UK is silently taking over not just UKR but other countries as well, for example US.
 

UKR are using missiles that are not announced. RU is in pain - letter to Putin from front line
 
Current HIMARS are causing a lot of pain to RU. I do not know what HIMARS are hitting but it is extremely painful for RU. From the same letter (pay attention to part with hitting several warehouses at the same time
Another example
 

There is new and unexpected development with Sahih al-Bukhari saga. Previous I discussed two outcomes:
Reversal of the decision means Putin while somewhat weakened is still in charge No changes to decisions means power struggle is happening, and Putin is severely weakened However, today Kadyrov announced over Telegram he needs - indefinite and long vacation from his post Head of Chechnya. Text of post:
For those who is unaware of RU power games - Kadyrov would never leave his post voluntarily. He is a notorious war criminal with many enemies inside and outside of RU. There is no a happy quiet life for him after retirement. And he is the only protection Chechens have against another attempt of genocide by RU army.
Let's look closely at the video of announcement:
Full transcript is below (Yes, he talks like this in RU and "don" is parasitic word in Chechen language)
 
If we pull the most useful phrases out of this mess and correct them, we get the following:
So:
Kadyrov got a message from somebody who is more experienced in seems to be political games than Kadyrov Kadyrov was told he might be kicked out unless he himself leaves He had to publicly announce it to prove he got the message Important point - Kadyrov seems to be sad, disappointed but not scared or under distress. That gives us additional food for thought
The other guy: himself is not a threat to Kadyrov and kadyrov can trust his word Kadyrov might not be just threatened but most likely was additionally bought (promised supposedly higher position but out of power)  Working theories:
Putin got pissed off with Kadyrov Somebody very close to Putin is making a soft coup Theory 1 Pro 
Most simple explanation Kadyrov trusts Putin Theory 1 Against 
I do not see anything Kadyrov did that could piss of Putin Does not fit Putin most likely course of action - Putin would make meeting with Kadyrov with cameras and directly offer Kadyrov what would look like better position. No fuss and everybody happy and quiet.  Putin needs Kadyrov now more than ever Adding the book to extremist material list does not fit the theory that Putin is in charge (why piss on all Sunni Muslims if you have issue with one) Theory 2 Pro
The book story fits here nicely Overall way it is done (secret meeting) and Kadyrov announcement of TG fits as well kadyrov most likely trusts Putin inner circle as well Putin strange public behavior (rubber butt) Overall hardening of RU position (for example decision to disconnect gas)  It is about time Theory 2 Against
It is a complicated explanation It is simply very difficalt to pull off unless Putin is, for example, mentally unhealthy My opinion - Theory 2
Let's think about the possibility that Putin is mentally unhealthy (for any number of reasons). For example, he is just talking head for TV now. That's why Kadyrov is not making a big fuss. He just did not see it (Putin mental problems and following soft coup) coming. That's why he says he (Kadyrov) is still so unexperienced - he was outmaneuvered and offered the way out.
Interestingly we saw reports Shoigu was sidelined (so he is out of hierarchy). And Shoigu was one of the heirs (according to Girkin). Now we see Kadyrov is on his way out of the game. Too many coincidences to believe in simple explanations.

A final solution if you will?
You guys don't know what you are saving.
Everything you and @kraze are saying about the Russian ex-pat population could be right in general, and similar things can be said about other populations - 'Muslims' for example.  They can be said about the Ukrainians - infected with the Western ideology, they cannot see how it harms the Slav.  Harsh measures are necessary.
So you've imported a large number of people and they have their own culture, and they largely stick together and don't atomise into the larger culture.  They don't seem make themselves available to the ideas and mechanisms our culture has which influence behaviour.  Ideas like human rights, freedom of choice, open criticism, advocating the truth over the interests of your tribe - changing ideas which can always be improved.
So you made a mistake and think you have damaged this Western culture by importing too many who act upon different principles.  Bad luck.  You do more damage to it by throwing them out.  Fix the problem another way - if they have citizenship they are now part of you, and how you treat them is how you can be treated.
[And as far as I can see it McCarthy was not a hero and did damage which echoes until the present day, even if he was right in some cases about Soviet agents.  A committee to scrutinise the political beliefs of workers which then bans them from work if they fail?  It is against the very notion of discussion and criticism toward better ideas.  It sounds more Soviet than anything else.  And you guys sometimes sound like the other ones.]

A final solution if you will?
You guys don't know what you are saving.
Everything you and @kraze are saying about the Russian ex-pat population could be right in general, and similar things can be said about other populations - 'Muslims' for example.  They can be said about the Ukrainians - infected with the Western ideology, they cannot see how it harms the Slav.  Harsh measures are necessary.
So you've imported a large number of people and they have their own culture, and they largely stick together and don't atomise into the larger culture.  They don't seem make themselves available to the ideas and mechanisms our culture has which influence behaviour.  Ideas like human rights, freedom of choice, open criticism, advocating the truth over the interests of your tribe - changing ideas which can always be improved.
So you made a mistake and think you have damaged this Western culture by importing too many who act upon different principles.  Bad luck.  You do more damage to it by throwing them out.  Fix the problem another way - if they have citizenship they are now part of you, and how you treat them is how you can be treated.
[And as far as I can see it McCarthy was not a hero and did damage which echoes until the present day, even if he was right in some cases about Soviet agents.  A committee to scrutinise the political beliefs of workers which then bans them from work if they fail?  It is against the very notion of discussion and criticism toward better ideas.  It sounds more Soviet than anything else.  And you guys sometimes sound like the other ones.]