rocketman

What interesting in Kolomna:
- "Machine-building design bureau" - designers of "Iskander" ballistic missiles.
- large ammunition storage
- oil pipeline pump station

New homegrown Ukrainian long range munition just reported: 
With little fanfare, Ukraine has developed and used a guided artillery rocket in combat with a longer range and heavier warhead than the vaunted Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) munitions provided by the U.S. and allies.
Called the Vilkha-M, it is a modified 7.6m (25-foot) long Soviet BM-30 Smerch multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) artillery rocket.

The Vilkha-M has a range of 110km (68 miles) and a 300mm, 485-pound warhead that can hit targets with great accuracy, Ivan Vinnyk, first deputy head of the National Association of Ukrainian Defense Industries, told The War Zone Tuesday.  https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-is-using-guided-rockets-with-more-range-than-himars-launched-ones
 

While I'm here, the Russian economy is literally dying. Due to skyrocketing prices and their reserve fund, they were able to weather the initial storm until Mobilization. But, with mobilization and the implementation of price caps, the RU economy became a sick man with no hope of recovery. Most likely forever.
I'll provide some notes on the health of the Russian economy soon.

Thanks. I am ok, just too busy trying to deal with everything becasue the situation is still not good, and it will not improve. But we have a plan and are waiting for an opportunity.
 

For all those who don’t know what the original U.S. term “drinking the koolaid”  means, it is in reference to followers of a Cult Leader obeying the Leader’s requests no matter the consequences. It was coined in the last century when a Cult Leader named Jim Jones convinced his followers in Jonestown to commit suicide by drinking poison in the sweet drink known as Koolaid or Kool-aid (I don’t remember the correct name). If I remember correctly, about 300 followers died.

Take a look at my Carpiquet Campaign from years ago and feel free to tie it in if you wish. Or steal the maps.  I've wanted to one day go back and shorten it a bit actually. Cut off some of the branching possibilities, remove the first mission that was a night recon that never really worked. Also probably just one big German counter attack from the 1SS on the night of 4th / 5th July, rather than multiple.
https://www.thefewgoodmen.com/tsd3/combat-mission-battle-for-normandy/cm-battle-for-normandy-campaigns/the-lions-of-carpiquet/

While I love smoke in CM I guess it is quite hard to organize effectively with large formations because the smoke doesn't last that long (while the same barrels could be firing HE). Plus drones can see over the smoke and direct/correct (artillery) fires behind it.
I guess the answer to your question is what we have seen before when UA launched offensives.
If the RA has on call artillery with enough ammo on hand and communications with those in the trenches or OPs, that's what's going to cause lots of casualties. As will tanks/AFVs/ATGMs with LOF on the advancing formations. 
So first HIMARS the logistics and HQs, excalibur the AFVs and strongpoints while continuously barraging the forward and rear fighting positions/trenches. When the defense has stopped being an effective fighting force, press the attack and insert your last paragraph.
Of course that's the ideal situation. 

Well if the past is any indication, the UA will lead with Light Inf and SOF, heavy on unmannned systems support, to do infiltration first, those are huge frontages on that Jomini of the West map and not a lot of RA troops to cover them.  Find your opponents quickly, and hit them hit precision artillery.  At the same time operational ISR is illuminating in depth and they conduct a deep strike campaign on RA artillery, C4ISR and logistics.
Minefield are going to be a challenge but there are ways through them.  Have not seen any real discussion on explosive breaching or even mechanical breaching support.  The UA is going to be needing assault engineering to break through those belts, but the lighter infantry and SOF will likely find or make gaps first.  This may drive back observation and cover fire on those minefields, which makes breaching a lot easier.
And then once you get enough forward moment, and corroded the RA - while pinning them down elsewhere, you go for manoeuvre and try for a breakout.  Nothing easy about any of this but that is the order of the day to break the back of the RA.

IR can see through smoke.  If the UA forces are well equipped with IR sights and the RA isn't, then they can lay a ton of smoke right in front of the RA lines (less smoke covers more angle) and leave a bunch of vehicles with IR sights on overwatch to pick off RA vehicles that come out from cover while "concealed" by smoke to take shots. If the RA is reasonably well equipped with IR (unlikely) then it's pretty risky for the UA.

seems that is a weeks' worth of tank production.....  
Russia Is Losing Tanks X10 Faster Than It Can Make Them: Report (businessinsider.com)

Well now. This could get quite interesting. 
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/28/world/russia-ukraine-news/blinken-to-meet-with-counterparts-in-central-asia?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
A U.S. diplomatic push arrives in the heart of the former Soviet sphere.
The diplomat, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, opened a two-day visit to Central Asia by meeting with the president of Kazakhstan and the country’s foreign minister, both of whom expressed a willingness to work with the United States and a commitment to protecting their national sovereignty, an indication of wariness toward Russian aggression.

And several strikes on UKR territory: 
Four HIMARSes on Kadiivka (Stakhanov), Luhansk oblast. Russian mobile ammo dump hit. Russians now try do not establish large stationery ammo dumps, but often use several trailer-trucks with temporary dislocation
Likely missile strike at the overpass bridge in Donetsk. Puppet "Mayor" of Donetsk made a shot of hole and... we can see probably damaged BTR under the bridge. Locals tell DPR position and checkpoint were inder this bridge already long time
 

Something big has exploded on left bank of Dnipro oppose to Kherson

Also interesting.

Dan ,
you are close to the truth. It is a posturing. However, the audience is neither Russia, US, EU nor any 3rd world countries. It is targeting domestically, more specifically, to make great leader happy. Let him know that “Under your guidance we just create a proposal, and all the foreigners are listening to your wisdom.”
In Ministry of Foreign Affairs of PRC , after years of purge, the staff with professional training/experience have either been replaced or too timid to speak out the truth. They don’t do evaluation, questioning and planning anymore. All they know is to follow the “leader’s instructions” (aka , grasp the essence from leader’s word) .  I can talk more about this later,  that should also partially explain the root cause of “Wolf warrior diplomacy”. And very unfortunately, just like Ministry of Foreign Affairs, almost all Chinese government agencies are following the same path to abyss.

The question is why should somebody do anything about Belarus? It was their choice to become a russian ally, they picked their side, they helped russians cause a lot of warcrimes and still very actively do - so that path has its consequences.
Just like Ukraine made a bunch of dumb civilizational choices since 1991, we now pay for this in blood sadly, but we do make a different choice now and it counts now - if a little too late.
West should concentrate on people who want to be with the West and stop trying to "save" people who are anti-West. Anything like that should be a result of people's choice, not trying to "white horse" it on them, even if you think you are doing a good thing. Extra 10 years in Afghanistan were a lesson in just that.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64774717
New postage stamps available in Ukraine. 

I read the long piece on the Time site, gotta say I do not really agree with it in its entirety.  Now before anyone jumps on that, I absolutely think Ukraine needs to be supported in this war and more so after it, but the laying down maximalist lines in the sand within the article really glosses over some important issues, many of which we have discussed here:
- Russia has already lost this war.  Even if they somehow managed to retake all of Ukraine and made it a proxy, the damage is done.  NATO is going to be funded, united and basically hauling in all takers (eg Sweden and Finland).  Russia’s strategic position is much weaker and is not likely to recover soon.  The odds of Russia actually retaking Ukraine are about zero, but even if they did the costs far outstrip any gains they may have made within their near abroad - even the most ardent Russian nationalist will be able to do the math in a few years, and then the Russian power regime has got a new set of problems.
- Driving Russia from Ukraine - even pre- 2014 lines, will not stop Russia from lining back up on this and trying a round 2.  Nor will it stop both kinetic and subversive attacks in Ukraine itself.  There are only really two ways to secure Ukraine indefinitely by this point, the complete defeat of Russia within Russia itself - so regime change and very possibly civil war, which is very bad.  Or a deterrence guarantor that creates a line Russia will not cross.  Right now that can come from two sources: NATO or China, and I do not trust China.  So until Ukraine has Ch 5 in it pocket, the actual stop lines on the ground do not matter so much.  
- We have been around the horn on this, but guys let’s be up front and admit the ugly truth - there are a lot of people in Donbas and Crimea who are not onside “standing with Ukraine” and likely will not simply say “okydoky, new guys in charge”.  Insurgencies have been sparked up for less.  Ukraine will need to somehow integrate and enfranchise entire populations, many of whom took up arms against them.  As our Ukrainian posters have pointed out, this is a very complex space and opinion’s definitely vary, but nothing could derail Ukraine’s entry into those security guarantees in point #2 faster than a dirty counterinsurgency blowing up all over the internet - and take it for one who knows, every counterinsurgency is dirty.
So as we get back to 23 Feb 22 lines - an absolute must because Russia cannot gain one inch from this illegal war, there is going to have to be some careful consideration of just where the line actually is, or is not.  Is this war worth extending another 2-3 years to retake territory whose people hate your guts?  How do you plan to address them and this, because hoping they simply are going to stay home is pretty weak given just how many took up arms with the RA (granted many against their own wills).
Militarily I can see a path where Ukraine takes back both Crimea and Donbas, but it is long and bloody unless the RA suffered strategic collapse.  So we definitely should be doing and supporting that as hard as possible, however, as to longer objectives I think there is still a lot of TBD out there.
Finally I disagree with the authors statement that “Russia not winning does not equate to Ukraine winning”.  Sure it does, it is called “strategic denial” and it has a pretty long history - Mao wrote an entire doctrine that pivots off the idea. Especially if Russia exhausts itself in the process.

He is just absurdly good at his job. We are just unbelievably lucky he was the guy when the balloon went up, and that Putins assassins didn't get him in the first forty eight hours.  

Lol I just checked the forums after busy workweek (not finished yet unfortunately) to find this news posted a few minutes ago, CM:MiddleEast 73 confirmed! 

Sweden has declared that we will send 10 or so Leopard 2 tanks as well as Iris T and Hawk AD systems.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/regeringen-presenterar-ytterligare-svenskt-stod-till-ukraina
 

Sweden has declared that we will send 10 or so Leopard 2 tanks as well as Iris T and Hawk AD systems.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/regeringen-presenterar-ytterligare-svenskt-stod-till-ukraina
 

Sweden has declared that we will send 10 or so Leopard 2 tanks as well as Iris T and Hawk AD systems.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/regeringen-presenterar-ytterligare-svenskt-stod-till-ukraina
 

Well, it tells us that the rest of the world doesn't buy our pretty Sunday speeches, and rightly so. Our precious western values apply mostly to ourselves and definitely only extend to other regions of the world as far as they don't interfere with our interests. Which usually means we don't give a f*** about autocrats as long they are "our" autocrats and we don't care about human rights when cheap resources and workforce are better accessible without them.
That's why it means nothing to quite a few countries that we are democracies and China and Russia are not. For them it matters how they are treated and as a matter of fact, so far we have a worse track record.
What we should learn from that is that we shouldn't take it for granted that we are seen as the good guys and everyone gathers under our banner. If this is to become a clash of systems then we better make sure to win the hearts and minds of the rest of the world through deeds not words.