dan/california

I think the thing about the FSB believing they already owned the Ukrainian Government explains a LOT,  maybe everything, about this war. First and foremost since the FSB believed it, Western intelligence agencies that seem too practically OWN Russian communications believed it. This was a BIG part of the prewar Western Government /media blob opinion that Ukraine would fall in a day. It appears to have been one of the more successful double agent operations in history. It is comparable to the British owning more or less every single German spy on the island from 1940 on, and being able to present a coherent but wrong picture to the Germans at will.  
Here is the crazy part, I think the success of this double blind led to the war. Putin thought success was guaranteed. Someone somewhere disregarded what I assume were repeated communications from the Ukrainians that the KGB was full of s$%%^#. The west believed Putin was right. NATO was afraid to commit to Ukraines defense because they thought the Ukrainian government would dissolve underneath them. The entire war has essentially been about forcing both Moscow and NATO to change their assumptions about the coherence of the Ukrainian government.
For the record I fell for the blob opinion the the Ukrainians would dissolve, at least I did a month ago, I changed my opinion completely after week one though. Feel free to tell my have this completely wrong, but it explains a LOT.

I agree with all of this. The delta in the situation is that the US admin had done tons and tons of 'what if the Ukrainians hold out' diplomatic and logistical legwork. Once the Russians invaded, the EU governments had already been prepped for the worst case scenario and had already agreed to many of the actions they later took. In fact, DC did such a good job that by the second week EU countries were going beyond what had been asked for. The big question now is holding them to course. You can see the 'war criminal', 'must lose power' etc comments in that light. The White House is locking them into position (as in, it's hard to drop sanctions on someone your government has agreed is a war criminal). 

I think the thing about the FSB believing they already owned the Ukrainian Government explains a LOT,  maybe everything, about this war. First and foremost since the FSB believed it, Western intelligence agencies that seem too practically OWN Russian communications believed it. This was a BIG part of the prewar Western Government /media blob opinion that Ukraine would fall in a day. It appears to have been one of the more successful double agent operations in history. It is comparable to the British owning more or less every single German spy on the island from 1940 on, and being able to present a coherent but wrong picture to the Germans at will.  
Here is the crazy part, I think the success of this double blind led to the war. Putin thought success was guaranteed. Someone somewhere disregarded what I assume were repeated communications from the Ukrainians that the KGB was full of s$%%^#. The west believed Putin was right. NATO was afraid to commit to Ukraines defense because they thought the Ukrainian government would dissolve underneath them. The entire war has essentially been about forcing both Moscow and NATO to change their assumptions about the coherence of the Ukrainian government.
For the record I fell for the blob opinion the the Ukrainians would dissolve, at least I did a month ago, I changed my opinion completely after week one though. Feel free to tell my have this completely wrong, but it explains a LOT.

This is not apocalyptic movie, this is Rubizhne city

We need to get a straight answer From the Taiwanese about how badly they don't to be conquered. If they are are convincing in their desire not become a large island gulag, we need to start pumping hardware in their like there is already a war on, the second Ukraine cools off. It will be SEVERAL orders of magnitude cheaper to convince the Chinese they shouldn't even think about trying, than it would be to rebuild the world economy after the fact.

We need to get a straight answer From the Taiwanese about how badly they don't to be conquered. If they are are convincing in their desire not become a large island gulag, we need to start pumping hardware in their like there is already a war on, the second Ukraine cools off. It will be SEVERAL orders of magnitude cheaper to convince the Chinese they shouldn't even think about trying, than it would be to rebuild the world economy after the fact.

Ukraine is winning the war with Russian legacy equipment, or derivatives thereof. Russian and Ukrainian artillery are basically the same. Russian and Ukrainian drones are both loitering over the battlefield. Infantry on both sides carry AKs. But the difference in outcomes is stark. Its the difference between a surgeon performing an operation and the town drunkard attempting the same operation.

I was always in the camp of the Russians are seriously overrated, China is where we need to focus, but I still have yet to wrap my head around just how unbelievably terrible they are.

So if a captain is commanding a motor rifle battalion the MRB in question has already lost its original command group, and it's back up command group. So the one that just got waxed was the last guy standing who who can read and write command group. Any guesses on the combat effectiveness of that MRB? Assuming there is anything left besides sunflower fertilizer?

That was an excellent talk, thank you for forwarding it.
Definitely a procurement & planning guy, the joke about Robert McNamara was really funny.

On the other hand it's not really just about the isr platforms themselves is it? 
It really comes back to good old fashioned air dominance, right? Even a crummy little WW1 biplane could spot formations and identify artillery - if it was on molested in the air. 
I expect we're in the era of different layers of air dominance - you could have operational air dominance (with enemy fighters unable to freely operate) yet the ground forces at that same enemy could have tactical air dominance, giving them tactical ISR that your operational air war apparatus fundamentally cannot affect.
This implies that in the next major war (or if this goes on long enough) that we will see proper drone swarm v. drone swarm tactical level air wars.
Each battalion will have its own organic drone wing, not just little teams - but a bona fide vital line item, on par with organic mortars/SPA in the Batt's OOB.
 
EDIT @dan/california we're reading the same hymn sheet...

I mean it would seem like taking this approach just fixes them in position for the inevitable drone + artillery strike ?

If Oryx is anything close to0 correct, the Russians are losing over a BTG per DAY. If their so called reserves are in as bad a shape as the last two or three pages of this thread indicate, how long can they do that? Steve's total collapse theory looking stronger by the day.

If Oryx is anything close to0 correct, the Russians are losing over a BTG per DAY. If their so called reserves are in as bad a shape as the last two or three pages of this thread indicate, how long can they do that? Steve's total collapse theory looking stronger by the day.

It is total nonsense.  Apartments in Mariupol were being hit within the first 5 hours of the invasion (killing one child).  Russian violence has been totally in proportion to their proximity and ability to deliver it.
‘God has left Mariupol’

We were talking about this about 50 pages back and we’re being generous with a 50% readiness rate.  10% is abysmal.  That means if 2500 ready tanks were sent into the initial invasion (of which somewhere between 300-500 have been lost), the out of the remaining Russian strategic inventory of about 10000 tanks they can count on 1000 being operational for service.  Worse those 1000 are buried in a mess of non operational tanks that might also need to be canabalized in order to make the 1000.  This isn’t a paper tiger, it is a stuffed one, filled with toxic fluff. 
If this is confirmed Steves theory of total collapse just got a lot more realistic.

10%...
 
 
 
 
 

The next big fight is so likely to be Taiwan we should be asking specific questions about what would work there. And I don't think it will be easy to get armor to Taiwan after the balloon goes up, so we ought to think really hard about getting it there first if we need it. 
I mean the first question we really have to sort out is are the Taiwanese willing to FIGHT not get subsumed into the communist blob. We have had two severely contrasting examples of how a western trained army can fight. The Afghans could not have done any worse, and the Ukraine is going down next to Sparta in the history books. If the Taiwanese are motivated we need to figure what needs to be permanently parked on that island to make it fatally indigestible. Ten thousand Javelins, and ten thousand stingers top the list, but that is just a small down payment. Xi and his generals need to understand that trying is just going feed the sharks in the Taiwan straight, and not much else.
 
Edit: Whatever it cost to convince them not to try will be a lot cheaper than wrecking the world economy after the fact.

A regime like Putin's literally cannot appoint a theater commander because that commander might decide that the best thing he could do for the Russian people is make himself Czar instead of the current incompetent in that position. This is at least triply true for an operation/war being conducted so close to Moscow. It is only ~750 km by road from Kharkiv to Moscow. One long days drive. If the Russian army turned around and decided to change the regime that put them in this mess there wouldn't be time for Putin to move a lot of forces around to oppose them.

Reading initial reports about the Ukrainian counterattacks and speculation that 10,000 Russian troops may be cut off around Kyiv.
Another report suggest just a major retreat.
Some people on social media are speculating there may be a mass surrender in a week.
If this does turn out to be accurate we may be looking at a mini Stalingrad. It would be a huge blow to Russia.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraine-has-launched-counteroffensives-reportedly-surrounding-10000-russian-troops/ar-AAVsUwC
 

A regime like Putin's literally cannot appoint a theater commander because that commander might decide that the best thing he could do for the Russian people is make himself Czar instead of the current incompetent in that position. This is at least triply true for an operation/war being conducted so close to Moscow. It is only ~750 km by road from Kharkiv to Moscow. One long days drive. If the Russian army turned around and decided to change the regime that put them in this mess there wouldn't be time for Putin to move a lot of forces around to oppose them.

Full territorial integrity...including Crimea.
Russian (and Belorussian) military units at least ~25 miles on the far side of their borders. Reparations. 
Then, after 2-5 years of "good behavior", signed off by Ukraine, international sanctions can be lifted.
(Yeah, I'm in a dream world.)

Sounds like boys in white are going in to ensure humanitarian corridors.

Now what the hell does this mean?