dan/california

NATOs planes need to be in the air.

Already out of likes, So I will just say thank you Haiduk. Glory to Ukraine!

Should we all be referring to Kyiv as Minas Tirith?

Already out of likes, So I will just say thank you Haiduk. Glory to Ukraine!

This is Maxar photos of 8th of April. Reportedly, this conoy was hit with artilelry this night in Izium area. Maybe some videos will apeear soon.

We have tried tolerant engagement with Russia. Anybody think is has worked out well?
There are huge cost to kicking Moscow out of the civilized world ,oil and gas are not the only resources where Russia has become a huge portion of the world supply. We are looking at more defense spending, and less economic efficiency, for as far as the eye can see. The Russian people are going to suffer real deprivation and greatly diminished horizons for generations. All of this is awful. I am simply stating that Ukraine II in five years, With Warsaw flattened, and an order of magnitude worse refugee problem than the one we have now would be worse.

Modern systems, and soldiers for that matter, just can't be built/trained fast enough. So the fight last until one side runs out of modern gear/trained people and has to quit. 

This is hilarious!

I am strongly of  the opinion that XI is incandescently angry at Putin for selling him this "Short Victorious War", and then screwing it up worse than anybody thought possible.

We have tried tolerant engagement with Russia. Anybody think is has worked out well?
There are huge cost to kicking Moscow out of the civilized world ,oil and gas are not the only resources where Russia has become a huge portion of the world supply. We are looking at more defense spending, and less economic efficiency, for as far as the eye can see. The Russian people are going to suffer real deprivation and greatly diminished horizons for generations. All of this is awful. I am simply stating that Ukraine II in five years, With Warsaw flattened, and an order of magnitude worse refugee problem than the one we have now would be worse.

If NATO insists on continuing to split hairs in how will and won't arrange for Russians to come their deservedly unhappy ends,it seems to me Western air defense, and maybe MLRS systems manned by "foriegn volunteers "are next logical step.

So again night falls in Ukraine w/o any breakthroughs or dangerous advances by Russia.  And every day it doesn't happen it seems to me less like to happen at all.  UKR bringing in reserves and building defenses in depth I presume.  So RU taking a village or a couple kilometers at heavy cost are probably part of URK game plan.  Stay dispersed, ambush, use depth.

We have tried tolerant engagement with Russia. Anybody think is has worked out well?
There are huge cost to kicking Moscow out of the civilized world ,oil and gas are not the only resources where Russia has become a huge portion of the world supply. We are looking at more defense spending, and less economic efficiency, for as far as the eye can see. The Russian people are going to suffer real deprivation and greatly diminished horizons for generations. All of this is awful. I am simply stating that Ukraine II in five years, With Warsaw flattened, and an order of magnitude worse refugee problem than the one we have now would be worse.

Three lieutenants in a BMP? If one had a map that was doomed to fail...

I really like this guy but on this one I have to diverge on his analysis somewhat.  I think he has got a lot right in this video.  I do disagree on his assessment of the Russian military around the 30 min mark but that is because I do not think he fully sees the distance that it needs to go to "re-tool" in order to fight the war it is in, due in large part to how Ukraine is prosecuting it...but we can save that for another day and frankly Steve has already covered a lot of this.
I will say that I totally agree with his caveats and cautions going into this sort of discussion on "who is winning".  However, Perun is employing technical metrics largely based on strength and their application in achieving stated political objectives but misses the realities of a "collision in motion".  As I noted, political objectives can shift (they did) based on will to sacrifice and desired end state, this is the continual negotiation I was speaking of.  When a war ends, people can argue forever (and will) who won based on the sorts of political objectives lens Perun is employing; however, in the middle of it one needs a somewhat more nuanced set of metrics, in my opinion.  For argument sake I will present four that I teach:
Options, Decisions, Power (Will, Strength, Relationships), Negotiating Position.
Options.  There has not been a war in history that I can think of where the losing sides options did not compress, eventually to a single one - loss, and the winning sides options were either sustained or expanded.  Pick a war, any war and trace the strategic options spaces of each side and you will see this trend.  In this one, again "in motion", it looks very much like Russian strategic options have continued to collapse, to the point they had to re-write political objectives, while Ukraine has sustained and in many cases expanded theirs particularly in the form of further mobilization, offensive action, an ability to hit Russian SLOCs and even prosecute targets within Russia (allegedly).  Strategically Ukraine is options healthy, it can give ground and then re-take it.  Politically, they have already begun to re-design what security guarantees mean: all healthy options.  Russia has been the inverse on almost every option space metric.  So what?  Well unless Russia can regain strategic options spaces while compressing Ukrainian ones, this war is not going in their favour.
Decisions.  So far there have been, by my count, 3-4 strategic decisions made in this war so far.  1) The quick 72 war - decided very quickly against Russia, 2) The move to besieging Kyiv and major urban centers -and with the exception of Mariupol pretty much has failed, 3) The collapse of the Russian Northern front - a decisive withdrawal that many were somewhat skeptically waiting for, and 4) The decisive proof of Russian war crimes in re-captured areas - changed the tenor and nature of this fight, including its end-states while galvanizing western support.   None of these have gone in Russia's favor.  This is not to say Russia cannot achieve a decisive outcome in the future but in war you live with the decisions of the past and at least so far they are not pointing to Russian "winning".
Power.  A very complex piece that encompasses a lot of components.  Most focus on Strength - the ability to communicate effects but I will focus on Will and Relationships.  Here Ukraine has the upper hand significantly and the trend is accelerating - time is on the Ukrainian side with respect to Will and Relationships.  Ukrainian Will has further steeled in the last 40 days while Russian Will is stressed.  Relationships do not need much elaboration but it is easy to see Russia's relationship position in comparison to Ukraine.  The reality is that one can have enormous Strength but if you do not have the Will or Relationships to bring it to bear that Strength is worth much less. When it comes to Power, I am arguing that Ukrainian power relevant and employable in this war is rising while Russia's is waning.
Negotiating Position.  This one is kind of a summary of all of the above.  Who has the stronger negotiation position both internally (ie. with itself) and externally?   Negotiation position is reliant on Power but it is also highly effected by Options and Decisions.  I would argue that right now Ukraine has the stronger position.  There are indications of this in how Ukraine's negotiation narrative has changed with Russia and how the tenor within Ukraine itself amongst the population has changed.  Russia's position is again the inverse, its negotiating position continues to weaken both externally through violence and threat of violence and, more importantly, internally - hence why all the lies.
So when I look at all four metrics, to my eyes this war is not going in Russia's direction.  These are the things it needs to be "winning" at in order to achieve its objectives (i.e. The Means) and it is not at least as far as I can see.  This does not mean that this thing is hard-wired but it points to a position where Russia must climb an ever increasingly steep hill while Ukraine need only stand on top of it.

I am NOT a Boris Johnson fan, SO NOT a Boris Johnson fan. But credit must be given where credit is due. I am strongly of the opinion that the very large number of NLAWs that Britain shipped in the week or so before hostilities commenced had large effect on the outcome of this war so far. It gave the Ukrainians the critical mass of ATGMs to stop the Russians' attempt at a blind tank rush. The Russians have basically been searching desperately for a plan ever since. And Johnson has been 100% on additional support ever since. Johnson has certainly not been very good on Ukrainian refugees, but It isn't like the U.S. has been great either, and Biden was not previously locked into an extremely anti immigrant stance . In fact I need to write my congressman another nastygram on the subject. 

Boris Johnson brought a plan of military and financial aid
- 120 armored vehicles (probably armored cars or some sort of this)
- 800 NLAWs
- StarStreak 
- Anti-ship missiles 

Well, yes, but It can't get harvested, shipped, and replanted for fall when Ukrainian farmers are busy being the engineering support for the army, and dodging random Russian violence. Russia is also systematically wrecking Ukraines fuel infrastructure and blockading the Black Sea, so nothing is getting shipped. Egypt, Lebanon, and a lot of other places are going to literally starve.

I have felt this way for three weeks now, but the powers that be just are not there yet. I think NATO should tell Putin that in twelve hours everything that flys will start trying to kill every Russian vehicle still in Ukraine, and every tank  that moves is making best speed to the Ukrainian front lines. At some point we have to stand up to nuclear blackmail, or make him world dictator. The pre war doubts about the coherence of the Ukrainian Government, state, nation, people, and everything else have been answered as emphatically as humanly possible. Ukraine, Finland, and Sweden all in NATO, while the Russian army goes home with nothing to count its dead is they way this needs to end. I just don't buy that Putin desperate later is any different than Putin desperate now. As bonus the Ukrainians could get a crop in the ground, and less of the third world will starve to death.

The numbers that Poland, Moldova, and the other bordering countries have absorbed are just unbelievable. There can't be an empty spare bedroom anywhere in Eastern Europe. I really think the U.S. and Britain need to do a great deal more both to maintain political coherence in NATO, and just to spread the load around in a bearable way.

There was incoming fire when they were fighting much more carefully from behind a slope.  The latter part seemed to be clean-up, maybe stumbling on a few isolated Russians that were cut-off?

Not sure this was posted yet:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61038811
Based on reputable, serious news outlets, it feels like every area, village, town of occupation has seen the Russian army live up to pretty much the worst that’s been said about it. Obvs the quoted link isn’t from such a source but it’s shocking (so yes until validated it could be propaganda- but the fact I now doubt it, why shouldn’t I given What else they’ve done, is most important - well to me anyway!).
At the risk of re-raising the bigger racist debate, but really to say I regret giving the benefit of the doubt, I can only see a small difference between this institutionalised violence, thuggery and carelessness for human life and what the Nazis did. Frankly I fear it might only take competence for the Russian army/state to replicate such systematisation.
@kraze, sorry. Pretty sure you’ve said as much.
I’m still (always) for a Marshall plan option but only for the sake of the future generations of Russians. This current lot appear largely poisoned, despite the protest attempts by some. This is helping me understand the frustration and bewilderment western soldiers & journalists (I.e. Gelhorn) felt when faced with the cynicism and denial of many Germans post 1944.

That is incredible. To discover your loved one is dead on the internet instead of from an army officier. 

128th Mountain Assault Brigade fighting in forest near Kreminna:
 

What are you thinking here Harmon Rabb? 
I've been wondering about this myself -- could anti-ship missiles be provided that could somehow reach Russian ships out of sight of shore?  Guided by drones?  This is one of my favorite dreams, where UKR unleashes a surprise anti-ship missile attack and knocks out a large number of Sauron's naval forces in the Black Sea.
My other dream is to wake up and see headlines like "gunfire and fighting going on at the kremlin".