TheVulture

Here's how the estimated front lines around Karkhiv have moved in the last 7 days (diagonal lined area shows territory regained by Ukraine).
For added info, I've added in various exploding things in Russian controlled areas in the same time (one supply convoy, 2 military warehouses (1 of which is slighly off the north of the map - too lazy to go and re-crop everything), 2 claims by Russians of shelling of border villages).
Not included is a claimed shot down TB2 drone and 10 or so incidents of Russian air defences (mostly in Belgorod) firing at unknown stuff / reckless geese. And a few claims of shell fragments landing in random places.

Holy **** that's a lot of trucks to stick right next to each other when you don't have to.  You'd think they'd have learned of the potential downsides of doing this by now.

The “before” image:

Yeah, you'd never find that sort of confusion in the US with a mere 91 towns called Wahington. And 35 called Lebanon, for crying out loud. 

Good, but long (50 minutes) video by Perun on Russian nuclear doctrine and why he thinks it's a bluff. (Perun is the guy who had some good videos linked here on Russian logistics a few weeks back).
 

Good, but long (50 minutes) video by Perun on Russian nuclear doctrine and why he thinks it's a bluff. (Perun is the guy who had some good videos linked here on Russian logistics a few weeks back).
 

The Russians just seem to folding up and going away everywhere between Kharkiv and the wider part of the Severtsky-Dontesk river. How much of that can they give up before artillery and other threats to their supply lines in Izyum becomes intolerable, and this wholes offensive just evaporates 

Good, but long (50 minutes) video by Perun on Russian nuclear doctrine and why he thinks it's a bluff. (Perun is the guy who had some good videos linked here on Russian logistics a few weeks back).
 

Good, but long (50 minutes) video by Perun on Russian nuclear doctrine and why he thinks it's a bluff. (Perun is the guy who had some good videos linked here on Russian logistics a few weeks back).
 

Looks like this is true, but not confirmed officially yet. Our Genral Staff made a warning to influence bloggers don't tell about libarated settlements until this will be done officially. 
About Stary Saltiv, yesterday evening there was information about "enemy sufferd losses after strike at Staryi Saltiv". As if locals write actually in Staryi Saltiv was deployed small unit of LPR conscripts. UKR hit building, where they lived, so about dozen of them or more were KIA/WIA, rest just ran away and UKR forces took the settlement without a fight, but this is rumors. Maybe our forces conduct some actions (and maybe on eastern bank of Siverskyi Donets so far, who knows), which not finished yet, so official corraboration can be during next day or two. 

NE of Kharkiv is sort of isolated from the rest of the Russian forces in that area. The Siversky Donets river is about 10-15km east of Kharkiv, and there's one major bridge and a few smaller ones there under Russian control inside the Ukrainian border. The big one is at Staryi Saltiv, which is where it was being reported that the Russians took heavy casualties yesterday (or was it the day before). I don't know of any corroboration of that report though, so it might just be RUMINT.
In the north of the region between Karkhiv and the Siversky Donest, one of the two main supply routes from Russia to Izyum runs within 2km of the river for a distance. I.e. a considerably stretch of it is within artillery range from the other side of the river, which could allow Ukraine to largely stop the Russians using one of the two supply lines for their main force concentration.

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:
The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?
The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).
Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)
Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.
 

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:
The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?
The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).
Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)
Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.
 

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:
The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?
The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).
Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)
Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.
 

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:
The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?
The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).
Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)
Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.
 

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:
The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?
The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).
Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)
Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.
 

I'll pitch in on this debate but I'll be light on gunnery because we have some well-qualified people who should rightly be deferred to.  What prompted me to look was @TheVulture's remark about 'clutter' and I thought it was worth seeing if I could unpick it ... in short I couldn't.  However, what I have not seen in the debate are the observations below ...

Going back to 'clutter' there is possibly at least one other vehicle in the rough area of my 'moving vehicle' annotation.
To pitch in on the HQ piece ... if I had to set a brigade HQ up in that area ... I would put it about 1km away.

 

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:
The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?
The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).
Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)
Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.
 

Fire and explosions at military arsenal near Tomarovka, Belgorod oblast. Confirmed by Belgorod governor.
https://t.me/zhest_belgorod/11240
На границе трёх муниципалитетов — Борисовского и Белгородского районов и Яковлевского городского округа - произошёл пожар на территории одного из объектов Министерства обороны РФ. Информация о пострадавших и разрушениях уточняется.

Все оперативные службы работают на месте, принимаются все необходимые меры для обеспечения безопасности, — сообщил Гладков
https://t.me/zhest_belgorod/11246

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:
The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?
The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).
Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)
Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.
 

Because I'm procrastinating this evening, I decided to plot the artillery impact points from the farmhouse video on to the google maps that @chrislposted above. Red dots are from the initial zoomed in view, orange dots are from after the camera conveniently zooms out just before the first rounds land outside its previous field of view. The purple circle is an area that is clear on the map, but obviously has some degree of ground 'clutter' in the video, but I can't tell what it is. Might well be some vehicles. Green line is 200m in length. 

Random observations:
The first round is a direct hit on the roof of the farmhouse and is possible the brightest explosion. Different kind of round, or just because it's up in the air rather than half-buried in the ground as it explodes?
The center of mass of the red dots seems to be different to the center of mass of the orange dots, which might suggest two different batteries with different central aim points (and the camera apparently knew when to widen its view).
Visually (and from watching the video) it seems like there are more rounds close to roads / treelines / buildings than might be expected by chance given the wide spread of impacts, but you'd have to do some kind of statistical analysis to tell really (and I'm only placing the dots approximately by eyeball, so I might be unintentionally biasing them towards roads etc.)
Here is the purple area ground clutter, before it all starts, and conveniently illuminated by a shell. Can't tell what it is, but for scale the distance between the two tree lines is about 300m, so we are talking (very approximately) vehicle scale stuff here, rather than pebbles or buildings.
 

And the M777 is not unique in this regard; here's the D-30 being towed:

And here are your daily air defense missile launches over Belgorod. Possible explanations:
Ukraine is running  a lot of air sorties over Belgorod Hungry Russian air defense crews are hunting geese for food The town clock is broken so they use this to signal midday Russia is trying to make its population feel under threat Answers on a postcard...
 
 

Bridge destroyed near Melitopol (about 10 miles SW). By the looks of it, a railway bridge. If that's right, it looks like one of the two railway lines out of Crimea is out of action (one line from Crimea runs NW to Kherson, and this one runs NE through Melitopol towards all the front lines in the 'land bridge' area).
https://t.me/dvish_alive/13099

Bridge destroyed near Melitopol (about 10 miles SW). By the looks of it, a railway bridge. If that's right, it looks like one of the two railway lines out of Crimea is out of action (one line from Crimea runs NW to Kherson, and this one runs NE through Melitopol towards all the front lines in the 'land bridge' area).
https://t.me/dvish_alive/13099