c3k

Maxim MG, the system 100+ years in servise!  
These MG use fire support companies of motorized infantry battalions and territorial defense battalions
 

^^^
That is the crucial part of your cogent analysis.  The pure length of the front the Russians have created is insane. They will, no doubt, try to smooth out the lines and reduce the linear distance...but that only changes the scale of the problem, not the problem itself.

The good news? After all these poor souls are gone, getting back to the pre-2014 borders will be much easier with all the pro-Russians' lives having been expended by their masters in Moscow.

UKR 2S7 Pion in action
 

The partially detached Sport Life gym created an overhang parking / loading area, and it looks like this building was targeted directly. Probably some equipment was parked there (as pictured at some point previously) so it couldn’t be observed from overhead (although there are no doubt eyes on the ground in Kyiv doing targeting work for Russia).

Ukraine, UNTIL NOW, has been plagued by weak governments that NATO didn't really trust. But Zelensky was doing his best to clean it up before the war. He obviously succeeded beyond all reason in cleaning up the military and intelligence services or we would be two weeks out from Putin's Parade in Kyiv. Post war, If Zelensky is still there and has a country to speak of, he is going to have both the political support at home, and the economic support from abroad to attempt a complete reset. He will be the second coming of George Washington, but with bottomless access to EU money, and technical expertise. It will just be a completely different  country two years from now if it exits at all.

More info on the work of the Belarus railway sabotage.
 

I belive its even thinner, behind the wheels that far down. (dont know the english word, sorry)
https://below-the-turret-ring.blogspot.com/2015/06/the-armor-protection-of-t-72-tank.html
The lower section seems to be only 20mm
 

 

We have cadre brigades of Reserve Corps, which activate during big war. They should have all equipment, like usual brigades (I hope). Also this mobilized go for reinforcement of existing brigades, involved to fight or for establishing of second-wave battalions of these brigades. Of course detailed information is classified, so I can tell here only that what some people are hinting in twitters.
4th Reserve Corps:
- 3rd, 4th, 5th tank brigades
- 60th, 63rd, 66th mech.brigades
- 38th, 45th artilelry brigades
Also probably 45th, 46th air-assault brigades, subordinated not to Reserve Corps but to Air-assault Comamnd  

The next phase of this war will be Ukraine pushing the Russians back. Obviously, the operational plan will not be a straight "push", but Ukraine will need to begin their own offensive.
Steve has done some great work laying out why Russia is NOT the one with the manpower in this fight. So, using the 100,000 Ukrainian OR1 which will come into this fight...how's that going to work?
Does Ukraine have uncommitted long-range systems? (Drones and arty, etc.) Or, are these 100,000 supposed to attack with their rifles and grenades? They must be integrated into a modern OFFENSIVE system.
Current Ukraine forces are incredibly well-suited to the defensive fight against Russia's attack. As the Russian spearheads dig in, and Putin's generals reinforce the supply lines (with Syrians and Putinjugend?), the Russian lines will harden up. 
It's great that Ukraine has a vast reservoir of motivated fighters to call up. But just sending infantry in against the Russians is NOT the answer.

The Norwegian people treated us the same way when we were there for NATO Operation Teamwork in September, 1976. It is an enormous morale boost to feel the population appreciates your presence. Not like SanFrancisco when I returned from Fleet Marine Force, Pacific (FMFPac) in 1971.

Javelin launch at...something. Probably at the truck or armored car - the soldier cries "Yeah! Directly in the cabin!"
 
 

^^^
In Gulf War, allied air was able to create "gorilla" packages of ~80 aircraft and push in and destroy their targets.
Russian air rarely practices more than a two-ship and the largest (parades excepted) would be a four-ship.
It takes a lot of time and money to create proficiency in planning and executing a true air campaign, from the HQ down to the individual pilot. A -lot- of time and money...

Modern air defense certainly includes anti-missile defense.
It's a little "cleaner" when looking at navies. What kind of defenses can the defending ship/flotilla/fleet put up? How many incoming missiles can they engage simultaneously, at what ranges, bearing, etc. That drives the number of missiles that will be launched to attack them. Unless your mission is just to deplete their defenses for the next attacker...
For ground-based air defense, the mission is similar. It is harder to do, due to the dispersed nature of SAMs. (Or, at least, how they should be dispersed, and mobile.) It's harder to get the early warning, etc., as opposed to a ship with everything located on that same platform.
But, yes, I am also impressed with how many incoming missiles the Ukrainian defenses have been able to intercept.

I was a NATO membership supporter even more than EU membership. But now I dissapointed in NATO, Turned out this is old scared bureaurocratic structure which can only fight in local conflicts with weak opponents like Libya, for example, but already not capable to withstand the own main opponent, for which it was created. Mainly not in military sence (though....), but in political. Not only because NATO officials scare "to escalate", but because Gemany, France, Italy - the countries, whose elites connected closely with Russian business (read "political elites") never allow Ukraine to be a member - neither NATO, and much likely EU. Many people here will tell me about NATO will fight in the case of Russian attack  on Baltic states, but I say - I doubt. 
There is a good if Ukraine become a full EU member for now, but... "Old Europe" is under great influence of "left-progressive" ideology, which never be accepted in Eastern Europe, especially in traditionally conservative Poland and Ukraine. Contradictions inside EU between Westrn and Eastern Europe memebers will be grow, like and probably in EU part of NATO
So, sooner or later we will need new military and political allince. UK+Poland+Baltic states+Ukraine ? Maybe.

"Stop sending people to kill me. We've already captured five of them, one of them with a bomb and another with a rifle (...) If you don't stop sending killers, I'll send one to Moscow, and I won't have to send a second."
- Josip Broz Tito

Radar is great...but raw radar returns are nothing but a noise-filled mess. All modern radars incorporate filters. That gives you a nice clean screen, but eliminates a lot of returns...  Like birds.
One common filter is a velocity-based one. Nothing below a certain speed is shown. Speed is determined by doppler effect. Filters are "notch" style (electrically speaking). That's why a common air combat tactic is to try to "doppler notch" your enemy's radar. If you are flying perpendicular to the emitter (e.g., enemy south of you, you're flying directly east), his radar filters will see 0 closure and filter you out. (<- Greatly simplified explanation and example.)
Drones, slow enough and small enough, fall into the "noise" and get filtered out of returns. It takes specifically "tuned" radars to spot drones, and then of a certain size (and range, etc.).
Using helos to shoot down drones would be incredibly difficult. Helos don't have air-to-air radar. So, finding the drone would be nearly impossible. Once found, to shoot it down, I refer you to WWI aerial kill rates: it would take a lot skill/luck to do so. How far away is the drone from the helo? Well...is it a big drone or a small drone? 
The larger, fixed-wing, drones could be vulnerable to this. But not anything smaller.
Any shootdowns would be few and far between. IMO.

@kraze - five medals isn't 'that many medals' however ...

And I never shot anybody ... just got shot at a bit and blown up once.

Radar is great...but raw radar returns are nothing but a noise-filled mess. All modern radars incorporate filters. That gives you a nice clean screen, but eliminates a lot of returns...  Like birds.
One common filter is a velocity-based one. Nothing below a certain speed is shown. Speed is determined by doppler effect. Filters are "notch" style (electrically speaking). That's why a common air combat tactic is to try to "doppler notch" your enemy's radar. If you are flying perpendicular to the emitter (e.g., enemy south of you, you're flying directly east), his radar filters will see 0 closure and filter you out. (<- Greatly simplified explanation and example.)
Drones, slow enough and small enough, fall into the "noise" and get filtered out of returns. It takes specifically "tuned" radars to spot drones, and then of a certain size (and range, etc.).
Using helos to shoot down drones would be incredibly difficult. Helos don't have air-to-air radar. So, finding the drone would be nearly impossible. Once found, to shoot it down, I refer you to WWI aerial kill rates: it would take a lot skill/luck to do so. How far away is the drone from the helo? Well...is it a big drone or a small drone? 
The larger, fixed-wing, drones could be vulnerable to this. But not anything smaller.
Any shootdowns would be few and far between. IMO.

Radar is great...but raw radar returns are nothing but a noise-filled mess. All modern radars incorporate filters. That gives you a nice clean screen, but eliminates a lot of returns...  Like birds.
One common filter is a velocity-based one. Nothing below a certain speed is shown. Speed is determined by doppler effect. Filters are "notch" style (electrically speaking). That's why a common air combat tactic is to try to "doppler notch" your enemy's radar. If you are flying perpendicular to the emitter (e.g., enemy south of you, you're flying directly east), his radar filters will see 0 closure and filter you out. (<- Greatly simplified explanation and example.)
Drones, slow enough and small enough, fall into the "noise" and get filtered out of returns. It takes specifically "tuned" radars to spot drones, and then of a certain size (and range, etc.).
Using helos to shoot down drones would be incredibly difficult. Helos don't have air-to-air radar. So, finding the drone would be nearly impossible. Once found, to shoot it down, I refer you to WWI aerial kill rates: it would take a lot skill/luck to do so. How far away is the drone from the helo? Well...is it a big drone or a small drone? 
The larger, fixed-wing, drones could be vulnerable to this. But not anything smaller.
Any shootdowns would be few and far between. IMO.

Yes, Kamil is a fantastic strategist and historian, but is less sound on pure military stuff, so YMMV....
His tweet threads have become popular and so many get bombed midway through by the usual Twits.
So for those interested, here are links to the 'unrolled' versions (although these don't have most of the images he puts in the tweetstorms).
Not in order of posting:
Russian demographics 1: geography
https://kamilkazani2.substack.com/p/how-did-russia-get-so-big?s=w
 
Russian demographics 2: the southern 'ganglands'
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1493602653586264076.html
 
The Russian economy 1
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1501360272442896388.html
 
The Russian economy 2
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499855858456567809.html
 
The rise of Putin
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496711906412933121.html
 
Dormant Russian institutions
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1499048492358111235.html
 
Russia's State Security State
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496506490202513413.html
 
Putin's elite
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495790874235744258.html
 
Kadryov's Chechnya: Putin's warlord vassal
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497612331953577991.html
 
Political institutions of the Mongol Golden Horde 
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492164056962195457.html
 
Assabiyahs: Russia's autocracies over time
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492549093771694082.html
 
Why doesn't the Russian Army rule Russia any more?
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1493968165717561346.html
 
The decay of the Russian Army
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502673952572854278.html
 
Russia didn't launch a war, but a 'special operation'
 
 
Crisis and Jubilees: barons vs courtiers
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503430216554795014.html
 
No, Ukraine isn't just a separatist Russian province...
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495469553136066572.html
 
Geography shapes Ukraine's history
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495200579919958021.html
 
Ethnopolitics in Ukraine (and Russia)
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1494334415446577153.html
 
A short background on Russian expansionism
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1492960693737463813.html
 
So who are the 'Nazis' anyway?
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1497306746330697738.html
 
"Z" Russia has gone full fascist
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1500495309595725831.html
 
Should we be 'giving Putin a way out?'
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503053699798769666.html
 
Napoleon's 1812 error: deescalation
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1503768312236421120.html
 
How Putin 'derussified' East Ukraine
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1504103672019513345.html
 

From release to impact, about 5 seconds. 
Drone height about 400 feet or 125m above the target. FWIW.

Did you read the article? He goes on how the UA is done,  a bunch surrounded and will probably surrender soon and they are only able to do "pin pricks" to the RA. Then he goes on how everything is going according to plan and the reason the RA is making such slow progress is they are trying to not cause civilian casualties. I don't think there was a single thing he said that coincides with what we have seen in the video evidence just here in this thread. And of course he hammers Washington and hints to all this being NATO's fault.
So a simple google search on the Colonel shows that he has been on RUSSIAN TV multiple times. Starting back during Kosovo where he was against the west interfering in the area and then in 2014 saying that Russia should be able to take any parts of Ukraine it wants. 
Seems like an unbiased analyst that is only presenting the facts with no political agenda. (Yes, this sentence is highly sarcastic.) I wonder what his salary in rubbles is??

On the topic of staying objective on Russian progress/status, this guy again:
 
 
Also some analysis of the Brovary ambushes caught on drone cam, but nothing much we haven't discussed here already. First 5 minutes or so were interesting for me.
Hopefully not a repost--this was uploaded yesterday but I haven't seen it in this thread.