Holien

Firms has lit up in the south just north and west of Kherson.
Sounds like sources from both sides saying the UA making progress in Severdonetsk, taking back significant portions of the city.
Couple small successful pushes around Popasna area by the RA but overall pretty stable.
Rumors of UA pushes on the line south of Donetsk.
In the economic news the last couple days a large Russian train car manufacturer has shut down due to lack of ball bearings. The Kremlin is mad at Taiwan as they won't provide them with micro chips or the machinery to make their own micro chips. The Russian sales tax (VT?) for April 2021 was 740 million and April 2022 is 420 million, so a significant reduction in consumption from the sanctions. 
Lots of stuff going on these past couple days. The economic struggles in Russia are becoming more and more real as time goes on and stocks of sanctioned goods are running out. The next couple months might prove fairly catastrophic to their production and manufacturing sectors as more and more industry grinds to a halt. Increasing unemployment will result, which further curtails spending and diminishes the revenue to the government. The snowball is growing.
It kind of looks like a little snowball for the military side too. The UA is seeming to add a little more push back at a time in different areas which I take as a good sign for their logistics and maybe a budding offensive capability. Nothing big yet but if it gets rolling could snowball into real trouble for the RA in their degraded state. 

Your definitions are categorically wrong.  A dictator with actual 95% support isn't a dictator but a phenomenally popular leader.  An autocrat maybe.   A Dictator in reality relies on brute force power to stay on top.  Pinochet, Kim Jong un, Robert Mugabe etc. State control of the media and education systems, full control of the state police and military institutions, judiciary etc ensures control.  
And what the heck is that "smoothie sipping leftist" comment?  I don't think you are finding in the US that the "smoothie sipping leftists" are Putin's main apologists.  Granted the left can have some annoying as hell pontificators, they however haven't been the ones most vocally decrying the US gov't support for Ukraine.  Who within the French political scene has been arguing against supporting Ukraine?  Same in most other western states.  Gimme a smoothie and arm the hell out of Ukraine. (actually,  i prefer coffee and wine).

Nothing like the bolded part is happening, it would take years, not feasible at all. There is a number of transloading facilities on both sides of the border and those are getting up to speed, but it is by no way sufficient. I didn't check on this topic lately, I'll dig a bit and get back with some info. 

I am not sure if it has been mentioned before, but this channel does regular interviews, mostly with Muscovite(?) zoomers and millenials, but I thought it gave some valuable insights into a certain subsection of Russian society, i.e. young urbanites, so definitely not representative of the whole country.
What these videos show particularly well is the utterly destitute state of Russian civic culture, with standard answers like "I'm apolitical", "these things are decided at the top", "we have no say in it", etc and a general disconnect from reality ("the rest of the world is envious of Russia's wealth and resources").
Some other interesting videos are the somewhat regularly posted (every few weeks or so) "are you affected by sanctions yet?" videos, which most people tend to answer with no, even if all acknowledge issues such as severe price increases.
This one answer I found particularly funny:
 

The thing is that, before the war he was one of those people who was publishing articles like this:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/09/23/zapad-2021-what-we-learned-from-russias-massive-military-drills-a75127
 
 
 
 
You could very well argue that analyses from fairly influential people like him discouraged heavier Western aid to Ukraine, especially in the lead-up to and earlier stages of the war. I think they have to acknowledge that this probably led to a lot of Ukrainian deaths, and I don't think they have the intellectual honesty to do that.

Meanwhile in Sumy oblast the "small border war" is continuing. Russians periodiclally shelled border villages and towns with mortars, sometime with artillery and MLRS, rare they conducted airstrikes through the border. Russian recon-diversion groups alsmost each day try to sneak on our territory. Most hot areas are Seredyno-Buda, Bachivsk, Bilopillia. 
As wrote a man, who likely served in Border Guard Service in that area 25-26th of May Russian recon group about 20 men conducted attempt to breakthrough on our territory, but was engaged and as told that man almost all elimiunated (and most of KIAs were on the count of snipers, when Russians became retreat).
Today in Russian social media appeared information about 7 KIA and 9 WIA Russian servicemen because of UKR strike on the school in Vorobzha village, Kursk oblast (14 km to the border), where Russian troops were depolyed. 

Also in Russian media appered photos of 6 Russian border guards/VDV, "killed by UKR diversants" near the border village Zyornovo, Briansk oblast - against UKR border town Seredyna-Buda. According to twitter information of the same UKR border guard servicemen, this was a crews of Russian mortars, which shelled our town recently and hit with return fire. 

Looks like crisis of first days of Popasna breakthough passed, UKR troops got reinforcements and more 155 mm barrels, so in last two days we have seen Russian advance stalled. Initially they tried to attack from Popasna in several directions simultainously. In more critical night (two days ago, as I recall) Russians could reach the Bakhmut - Lysychansk road and set two chekpoints there with 50 men (likely VDV company). But at the morning UKR troops after artillery strike counter-attacked and pushed Russians away from the road, clearing the road again, though, Russians could shell it anyway.   
Yesterday UKR troops pushed Russians further from the road. Also, reportedly they recaptured Komyshuvakha village north from Popasna, which partially was captured by Russians in previous days. 
On this directions Russians already have a lack of manpower, throwing in the battle elements of 6th cossack motor-rifle regiment of LPR (regular unit) and probably LPR conscripts. During one attack cossacks lost almost all company. 
More northward LPR forces advanced from Toshkivka toward Ustynivka on 1,5 km. But Toshkivka still an arena of heavy clashes - today UKR froces again restored own positions in the part of this village, lost in previous day.
In Siverodonetsk Russians rejected from mass attacks, which cost them many personnel and involved special units, in particular Kadyrov's troops. Two days ago they could seize "Myr" hotel and bus station area on the NE outskirt of the city, all attempts of UKR troops to push them off were unsuccessfull, but enemy's attempts to avdance further inside the city also failed. 
Looks like Russians "plan D" to make a pocket between Siverodonetsk and Bakhmut is also failing so, Russians can claim "plan E" victory - to make three little pockets  - Avdiivka, Zolote and Siverodonetsk 

"Plan E" Left to right  - Siverodonetsk, Komyshuvakha - Zolote, Avdiivka

The Japanese company making miniature Russian soldiers can make some miniature tanks based on this image. 
 

This map some incorrect. What I could understand from some information from locals, our troops crossed the river in Bilohirka, where we can see natural bridgehead, but not in Davydiv Brid (meaning in eng. "Davyd's ford") - this village still under Russian control or in grey zone, according to different information. Against our troops, again, according to differnet information either elements of 11th air-assault brigade or 56th air-assault regiment. Very likely first line of defense occupied LDPR conscripts, so our forces hit exactly their positions to breakthrough, but this is just my opinion. 
As I know, the clashes for Inhulets crossing have been lasting about 10 days or even two weeks, maybe not very intensive, maybe there were some unsuccessful probes, and only now, when our troops firmly took the ground and could push the enemy, OPSEC curtain was lifted officilally

Time to combat-prove some of our gear:

1.  DefMon drills nicely into this very topic in this thread...
....
Nice forensics here.
2. The ginger gnome there is Russian video tweeter WarGonzo
As noted by others, the Russians seem to have committed nearly all their elite units into this bridgehead, a la Wacht am Rein 1944.

Russian TG channel FighterBomber initially rejected any jet losses today and wrote "all Su-35 at home", but a hour later has written about "fu...g bad day" and some vessel was lost. Other source wrote as if the two-seater jet made sharp maneuver on extreme low altitude, launched flares and hit the ground. Nobody have seen any launches at it. Troopers of Russian 56th air-assault regiment could take the body of one pilot, where the body of second - unknown.


From our sources, Russian jet was shot down near Stepne village, Kherson oblast - this in 26 km SE from Davydiv Brid, where according to rumors our troops crossed Inhulets river and could advance toward Beryslav town. I have read the twitter of Kherson citizen, which wrote he called to own familiars from theese places, but they can't say anything about this breakthrough, but he wrote maybe really Russian aviation stopped our advance, but where now our troops - still near Davydiv Brod or retreated on western bank, he doesn't know. 
Other news:
- locals from Kherson reported about powerful detonartion in Chornobaivka area and work of Russian AD. Some sources claimed two ammunition storages were hit
- Tochka-U missile hit town administration building in Svatove town, Luhansk oblast, occupied in first days of war. Somebody writes this was Ukrainain missile, somebody this was Russian provocation, so still unclear. 
 

The fruit of war in Ukraine 
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-deadly-fruit-shells-rockets/31871324.html
https://gdb.rferl.org/0a630000-0aff-0242-abe3-08da3fc2ea44_w866_r0_s_d2.jpeg

The fruit of war in Ukraine 
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-deadly-fruit-shells-rockets/31871324.html
https://gdb.rferl.org/0a630000-0aff-0242-abe3-08da3fc2ea44_w866_r0_s_d2.jpeg

Yup, that's a CM tree all right....
And yeah, Newsweak again, but, interesting info....
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-russias-air-war-ukraine-total-failure-new-data-show-1709388
Of the 20,000 or so sorties that the Russian air force has flown so far in the Ukraine war, fewer than 3,000 have entered Ukrainian airspace, almost all of them over the battlefield.  Russia flew fewer and fewer bombing aircraft beyond its own army's front lines, just over 10 percent of the total number of sorties flown, according to U.S. intelligence numbers.
Long-range strikes on so-called "strategic targets" continued, but they were undertaken by a combination of air, sea, and ground-launched missiles. 
Over 32 years, some 2,300 Tomahawks have been used in combat... in 85 days of strikes 2,275 missiles have been successfully launched [by Russia].... Iskander missiles (630 of them) have been launched from the ground in Belarus and Russia.... A dozen Kinzhal hypersonic aero-ballistic missiles have been fired.
"Right now, we're holding Russian missile success at just below 40 percent," the DIA official says....  two to three out of every ten missiles fired fail to launch or fizzle during its flight. Two more have technical problems such as not fusing properly even if they fly to their intended range. Two to three more miss their aim-points even when they reach their intended target.
Ukraine says that it has shot down 110 Russian cruise missiles, almost 10 percent of those that make it into Ukrainian airspace.
"And then there's the question of what they [the Russians] are hitting, and what their intentions are even when they do succeed," the DIA official adds. "For a couple of days it's airfields and air defenses. Then the emphasis shifts to ammunition depots, then oil, then factories, then the transportation grid. In each case, we are not seeing effective attacks and we are seeing little if any follow-on strikes." 
****
Hey, while I'm citing Newsweak, let's go all Popular Mechanix too!
 
 

That's a pretty good all-round summary.
I.e. there's definitely a pretty varied group of pro-Putinites among the political elites in Italy, who are are posing as pacifists for their electorate but are probably secretly pro-Russia as they fear financial support (always denied) would probably suffer (or their personal interests) if they opposed the war actively.
But I don't think there are many among the population at large supporting the Russian invasion in this country on moral grounds. Maybe there's a small cluster on the far left who are nostalgic of a strong (Communist) Russia. Don't forget that the Italian Communist party had 40% of the votes in this country in the '70s. Maybe 2% now.
Russofiles, yes. Maybe a few on cultural grounds and a lot more due to economic / business ties. The tourist industry is perhaps the 3rd or 4th largest in Italy. There are many restaurants / hotels / supply chain operators that are crying out loud for the government to do something because they will have to cancel orders for large amounts of champagne this year. I've seen Russian-speaking customers regularly pay €2000 in cash for a meal. They were good business for many a sad restaurateur...
 
 
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/05/26/biden-white-house-secret-planning-helped-ukraine-counter-russia/
 
"Germany was a reluctant but essential ally, and the Biden administration made a controversial decision last summer that was probably crucial in gaining German support against Russia. Biden gave Germany a pass on an initial round of sanctions against a company building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in exchange for a pledge from Chancellor Angela Merkel that if Russia invaded, Nord Stream 2 would be scrapped. When the invasion came, Merkel was gone but her successor, Olaf Scholz, kept the promise."
 

Restoration money in exchange for reforms works wonders, always.
Plus, unlike Afghanistan, which is a very alien culture and is, indeed, more than happy to have hardcore muslims running the show (no insurgency can survive for 20 years without local support - and then take over the state) - Ukraine is still closer in mentality. Although admittedly still quite Stockholm-syndrome traumatized by pre-1991 russian occupation.
And yeah - our military guys are the ones that people trust the most right now. For the first time they have a very heavy voice and if NATO pushing reforms will support and rely on people like Zaluzhny - people will actually pay attention this time.
In fact our military having an all-time high respect among people already makes a lot of corrupt politicians extremely uncomfortable and yet impotent to do anything about it. So at least in terms of military / security reforms - it will be very different from Afghanistan.

So...DOOOOOOOOOOM?
Well all war is negotiation and sacrifice, so the question will come down to both sides coming to terms with those two factors.  My pushback to the "inevitable partitioned Ukraine" is that Russia talks a good game but Ukraine has lived it.  Russia is only just starting to feel the pain and like any good nut-sack shot, that pain takes some time to build. 
Here is a dirty little inside baseball secret - professional soldiers are supposed to die, it is what we get paid for; civilians, not so much.  Every society knows this and accepts it.  We can lose people who choose this lifestyle who, like mercs, take the Queen's Coin and do the dirty work.  We have Remembrance Days and "Thank you for your service"-free coffee but in order for a society to be truly tested in war, it must be willing to feed it people who had nothing to do with warfare before it started.  The harsh calculus of regular everyday people dying in numbers is a threshold that we in the West have not crossed in a very long time (e.g. WW2 for Canada and Vietnam for the US).  Nor has Russia by this point, but it is approaching it quickly. 
However, you know who is already living in that stark land?...Ukrainians.  They have been "all in" since 24 Feb, to the point that there are no longer "regular Ukrainian civilians", the whole nation is in on this.  I see pictures of 12 year old holding a wooden AK properly and that says it all; war, has become the way of life for Ukraine.  Out of everyone talking and positioning, only Ukraine (and possibly the folks in the DPR/LPR...many involuntarily by the looks of things) has crossed that threshold.  Putin is very nervous of it, and it shows.  The US was terrified of it in Iraq, that is why they imposed all sorts of crazy things to try and keep the professional troops they had.
So before I pass judgement on the current situation with finality, I would want to see how Russia reacts when the civilian population starts bleeding heavily.  They are hurting but it has been a slow burn, and frankly I think Russia is culturally masochistic...to a point. However, despite a bunch of retired Russian warhawks barking from the cheap seats, Russia has not been tested in this trial in a very long time either.  Ukraine is the single largest hot-war they have been involved in since WW2.  History looks great in the movies and we can all get our pulses up watch Saving Private Sasha; however, watching the guy next to you get blown in half by long range arty when you were working at a now-closed Starbucks a month ago, is an entirely different experience.
So no, I do not think Russia and Ukraine or on the same wavelength when it comes to negotiation and sacrifice...at least not yet.
As to communication:
We have been over the challenge of the Russian Defence, which they need in order to "freeze" this conflict.  Right now they are keeping Ukraine busy by this very slow grinding offence, but it has been costly as hell.  At some point if they want to "freeze" they are going to need to dig in and let the UA crash upon the shores of the great Russian Steel Wall.
Problem is what it will take to build that wall.  Did some research and frankly we do not have modern troop density calcs for this sort of thing - we have lots on peacekeeping/making and COIN but basically sweet FA on modern conventional conflict.  So we are going to have to make some assumptions here and keep checking them.  In warfare the concept of "troop density" is a bit controversial.  It is a hold over of the Jomini-esque "war is math" approach.  It holds water but it is not deterministic as we already know a lot of soft non-linear factors play into this.  With this in mind, all caveats etc lets break this down a bit:
- We are talking about 800kms of frontage from the Russian western position around Kharkiv to its position ion the East near Kherson.  That is a long active front...very long.  In WW1 the Western Front was about 400 miles, or about 640 kms in comparison.
- Troop density requirements have decreased over time.  It is well documented that weapons ranges, ISR and battlefield mobility have increased the combat influence each soldier has on the battlefield over time.  Problem here is that reality cuts both ways.  In both offence and defence effectiveness and range have increased, so it is competitive. 
- Troop density in WW1 - a frozen conflict - was in and around "5000 troops for mile" or roughly 3125 per km: (https://books.google.ca/books?id=nhhlHGWCnzYC&pg=PA30&lpg=PA30&dq=troop+density+western+front&source=bl&ots=WWfd6Y7VIl&sig=ACfU3U1M05Ef9GIbmBAREwu-_obJPnXEpw&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi_rO_4jf33AhXvjIkEHRJEDUoQ6AF6BAg7EAM#v=onepage&q=troop density western front&f=false).  This jives with the roughly 2 million troops each side had to sustain in the trenches, in depth, replacements and rotation, in order to sustain that deadlock.  This does not count logistics and support overhead -which is likely why each side had on the order of 12-15 million troops in total.
- Based on WW1 metrics, Russia would need approximately 2.5 million men in those trenches to achieve the same deadlock...and then have the architecture behind them to sustain it, which at a very generous 1:1 (which means a very slow burn war) means roughly 5 million men to dig in and hold that front a la WW1.  But as I noted we are not in WWI - although if the Russians tried to force generate these numbers they would probably start looking like they were from that era equipment-wise. 
- Actual Russian troop numbers as of today are hard to find; however, with the 200k they brought with them and assuming they have kept that force level (big assumption), Russia currently has a troop density of 250 men per km of frontage.  This is less than ten percent than the WW1 number. But as we noted modern forces can cover more ground, which makes this a weak analogy.  The question is, "versus a very well armed attacker, how much troop density does Russia need to "freeze" this front?"  My bet is a lot more than 200k troops, but how much more?
So let's tackle this from another direction.  Things in this war are challenging a lot of our rules of thumb; however, we can go with the 1:3 ratio of defender to attacker, at least locally.  So Russia likely needs to put at least a Company per km frontage.  This forces the UA to concentrate a BG on the attack, with all the support bells and whistles in order to make an effective shot at it.  This makes sense from a force-space-time perspective for both attacker and defender but I am not sure about firepower in the least [Note: it might be a lot less if things like UAVs and precision artillery are involved.  This is one of the unknowns]. Terrain may also give them a break, particularly on the Dnipro, however, they also have urban areas so I am betting things even out.  
So a Russian Company of say 150 men per km.  They will need at least on more company behind them to create effective depth and prevent breakthrough of that UA BG, while also accounting for attrition, so now 300 men per km.  And then they will need to rotate troops in and out of those positions.  We are not designed to live in the open, under harassing artillery/Switchblade fire indefinitely.  So we are now looking at another company for rotation and sustainment.  Throw in an armored reserve to plug holes and supporting fires/assets and we are getting dangerously close to a BTG, per km.  This would bring the Russians up to about 1500 (a fat BTG) men per km, about half of WW1 troop density.  Or 1.2 million men.  And that is just the fight stuff and basic tactical logistics.  As we know from this war, the Russians like to travel light on logistics and formation-level support, so we can probably add another third of that number, say 400k to build the backbone to keep those 1.2 million men in the field = about 1.6 million men...and they have to sustain that for years, under increasingly crushing sanctions.
I have to be honest, if I was an average Russian and I saw these types of numbers I would be asking myself "how badly do we need Putin". 
Finally, checking the old CIA factbook (https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/russia/#people-and-society) Russia has roughly 37 million fighting aged men aged 15-54 (I am going to assume good old Putin male chauvinism holds and they do not a start tapping women).  You can throw out a third right off the top for all sorts of medical conditions etc that make them simply unfit for service.  So roughly 24 million men to draw from, in entirety.  To freeze this Ukrainian war, to the point that you can force Ukraine to "tap out" you need to commit at least 5 percent of all eligible fighting aged males...up front.  And you count on needing an extra 1.2 million just to sustain it over time.  Now I can hear the demographic nerds out there pointing out that over time more men come of age...well the news for Russia in that regard is not good either:

Russia is in a bit of a demographic hole right now and it is going to take what look like 3-5 years to dig its way out.  Worse the big bulges in the 35-44 range are going to age out in the same timeframe.
And finally, finally, this does not take into account the the standing military bill for the rest of the country - Russia can make all the noise it wants with Finland and Sweden, everyone is going to be fully engaged on this Ukrainian thing for a few years so you may as well shut down everything else.  
So What?  After all that it comes back to: how much does the average Russian want a bunch of new broken Republics vs how much does Ukraine want its country back? 
If I were a betting man, I would put my money on the country that has already demonstrated the commitment.  If this war goes long, we will likely need to shift from send guns and bullets (fish), to funding the creation of a Ukrainian domestic arms industry (fishing rods) and then figuring out what to do when Russia totally collapses under the weight of this thing.

Just made me smile, the Germans acting quickly...
 

Just made me smile, the Germans acting quickly...
 

Just made me smile, the Germans acting quickly...
 

Ha ha, you made me laugh! I believe it was Churchill who said that you can't have a proper war in Europe without Polish territory - let's hope he was wrong!
I'd be careful trying to apply the american liberal/ conservative distinction to Eastern Europe (at least to Poland of which I feel entitled to an opinion  ) The whole social conservatism is something that is more being shoved down people's throats by our bleep bleep bleeping government than something people actually want. Hell, when gov approved the anti-abortion laws here, rioting people actually sprayed on churches and John Paul II statues - something unheard since ever in this country. The pendulum is already swinging in another direction in the polls, and the incoming financial crisis will probably sweep the current ruling party off the table, and boy will they fall hard.
Still, at least as far as international politics are concerned, it won't make any impact. Polish only parliamentary left party renounced any "Tankie" connections on D+1 and is as anti-Russian (anti-authoritarian really) as anyone else. The far right was and is quite Putinist though, but they got basically cancelled to the point media are ignoring their press conferences. 
If anybody missed that, UA officially raised the new, 5th Tank Brigade around a week ago, equipped with Polish T-72s, Dutch YPR-765 and AFAIR towed Giatsint-B guns. It is dislocated in Kherson region according to https://uawardata.com/
 
 

Just made me smile, the Germans acting quickly...
 

Just made me smile, the Germans acting quickly...