Holien

Wow, what a crazy weekend!
So I figure I might be able to add to the discussion on the whole state of things, people normally have to pay for this but I like you guys so much you can have it gratis.  
We are currently in a human social singularity and have been since the beginning of the pandemic.  Historians may very well point out that 1991 to 2022 was one big singularity.  By that I mean the coin is literally in the air and there is no real way to tell how it will land.  So here we are all spinning in a massive uncertainty and trying to cling onto certainty, very human.  The best we can honestly do right now is enhance our strategic agility and collective resilience because no one really knows how this thing will unfold (trust me). Predictive assessment and projections are about as accurate as throwing dice in these situations so I really encourage everyone to avoid getting to attached to any one version of reality.
So that all said, here is what we can say:
War, all war, is a human social activity that is defined by a collision of certainties.  It is a theory with primary components of: a version of reality, communication, negotiation and sacrifice, all laid overtop a foundation of culture/identity and power.  Right now this is a three way war (at least): Russia, Ukraine and the West (for want of a better word).  I include the West not only for the material and volunteer fighters but the incredible amount of information warfare being waged all pretty much in the direction of Russia.  Further the West also has a vision of reality and certainty stake in all this.
So what?  Well the versions of reality by all parties is pretty clear by now, Russia's is a still a little vague but it is hard not to see an overall aim here.  Communication is literally happening live on YouTube and Twitter in all its forms. Negotiation is ongoing in so many dimensions it would be impossible to see them all.  Sacrifice, which is more than the obvious tragedy of loss of life it is what each side is willing to lose in order to win, is largely unknown outside of some really big rocks (e.g. The west is not willing to sacrifice New York for Kyiv).  This war is definitely existential for Ukraine, maybe for Russian and very impactful for the western based view of the world order.  In summary this system is still in collision and it is almost impossible to tell where it will land; if you want to know how a war ends, you have to fight it first. 
So what can we tell so far?  Well for that I take a look at the deeper power frameworks:
If we take Power as Will, Strength, Relationships and Opportunity (there are other models but this one works):
- Opportunity.  The options spaces for a short sharp war, which probably served Russian ends, is pretty much closed.  And here I mean for all sides.  Ukraine has dug in and I am not sure they would listen at a local level if the Ukrainian government begged them to put down arms.  Russian military operations have not gone according to plan.  There is too much evidence of stalls, logistical screw ups and frankly disturbing losses (mins/dis information caveats accepted - some of this equipment being towed by Ukrainian tractors are Div level assets).  The Russian quick definitive war options spaces have likely collapsed unless they are willing to escalate to the WMD level.  The West has swung the other way, dramatically.  Soft support and kinda weak signals have been galvanized in a manner I find shocking to be honest.  This, and the fourth party in this fight, the people of the global community, is also something I am not sure anyone was ready for.  So what?  Opportunity-wise Russia is facing one of two spheres of options: negotiate a "just enough win" or dig in for a long hard grind.  Ukraine is looking to "just lose enough" or pretty much "hey Russia go f#ck yourself" and wage a hybrid war for the history books (we are talking Iberian Peninsula "war to the knife" type stuff).  There have been zero signs of regional Ukrainian splits beyond the Donbas (and even there), so while Balkanization is likely on the table there is a lot of space between initial bargaining positions.
- Relationships.  This could not have gone better for Ukraine if they actually sat down and workshopped it as a movie script.  Russia is isolated and villainized to a point I am not sure even the most optimistic western planner could hope for.  China and India are basically staying out of this as far as I can see, while Russia's allies are Belarus and...?  I mean if its true, the freakin Chechens (modern day Cossacks) said "no thank you".  Only the most delusional Russophile could describe this as anything but a total relationship disaster for Russia and enormous victory for Ukraine, at least so far.
- Strength.  Well this is a deep rabbit hole but I am pretty sure most experts will (and are) saying that Russia still has an enormous military advantage (even subtracting the nuclear equation).  Their economy is crashing a lot faster than many thought so unless those "military contractors" on the Russian side are being paid in USD, it is going to hurt eventually.  But Russia is a big machine that will take a long time to choke out economically - at least that is the theory, I am beginning to wonder.  So if this turns into a long grinding war we will likely see urban sieges (wow that takes me back) and a brutal insurgency that is really not good for anyone.  Russians will bleed, heavily and Ukraine will take decades to recover.  In the end, neither side is showing an inability to muster and project military power, at least for now.
- Will, the church of warfare, and it definitely applies here. Whose will break first?  Not the West, our stakes are much lower and we are pretty much all in for the little guy, plus we are not hurting.  Putin really has only one option space wrt to western Will and that is nuclear war; however, he will likely suffer a 9mm headache if he tries to go that far.  Ukrainian Will, well one can only go on online video and open source here but it seems pretty clear that Ukrainian will to fight has escalated in the last 5 days, not diminished.  Compare the Ukraine to the Afghan National Army vs Taliban last Aug if one wants a stark contrast of the concept of Will.  
Russia, hoo buddy, lets sit down and have a conversation.  So things have definitely not gone according to any sane plan.  The Ukrainians are really pissed off and are digging in hard, they own the ground and are being supplied by the best the west can give them and that cheque is pretty close to blank.  So, how bad do you really want the Ukraine? I mean really want it?  This is making that little misadventure to Afghanistan back in 79 look pretty benign.  You can probably "win" this militarily but it may very well break your nation trying to do it.  Russian Will is right now the center of gravity for this whole thing and time is not on its side.  I am not sure the Russian people have the stomach for a months long siege of Kyiv (In 16-17, it took 115k Iraqis with western support and all the airspace 9 months to take Mosul from about 12k ISIL fighters), so what does next Christmas look like for Russians, cause I suspect Ukrainians are already planning for it. 
Anyway, just keep watching but I do recommend that we take mental health breaks too because this is still got room to be one crazy ride.  Oh and remember while you are at it that there are those, even on this forum, who cannot take mental health breaks, this is not theoretical for them so try and keep that in mind too.
 
 

This is not unconrol sharing of the weapon. You come to enlist center and enlists either to local Territorial defense battalion as reservist-contractor, and receive all gears and weapon, or like a volunteer, attached to this battalion, and then, you receive only a rifle with ammunition (or you can take own legelly bought rifle). So, these units are combatants, because they are acting under subordination of local Territorial Defense Command and local civil administrations, which during martial law times also are a military administration.
BTW. USSR in 1941 also armed dozen thousands of civilians in so-called "fighter battalions" (rus. "istrebitel'nyi battalion") or united them in so-called "people militia divisions". Why in that case it is god and why in our cas it is bad?  

Can we stop blaming the victim please?    

Summary update on developments. 
 
Institute for the Study of War, Russia Team  
ISW published its most recent Russian campaign assessment at 4pm, February 27.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-update-10

Yeah I will do no such thing. You got scammed period. And not only that but you willingly paid someone to infect your poor head with this mind rot. And now you're poisoning the collective well by repeating and spreading it.
I know how it must make you feel smart, enlightened and stroke your ego to have the illusion that you "get it" while everybody else is oblivious to the truth. But what's really going on is that you have reached a stage where you have been fed so much lies that you can't tell what's real or not anymore. Congratulation you are a victim of disinformation and you're enabling online snake oil salesmen and grifters. I don't even know why I am replying to you because I have dealt with people like you who have objectively lost it in the past and it is completely pointless. I am guessing most people here either have you on ignore or feel sorry for you and give you a pass but I have no such qualms and you are due for a good reality check because this is both really painful to read and derailing a very interesting thread.
 

Dude....
Keep this conspiracy brain rot to yourself please.

Much more than you know perhaps. I pride myself on being an amateur historian. I know the basic history of Eastern Europe from the creation of the Kiev Rus up to the present, and there is plenty of blame to be spread around for conditions and politics of today. I’m probably one of few former USMC (1969 to 1982j who know the underpinnings of the U.S./Vietnam conflict, and how it could have been prevented by FDR when asked by Ho Chi Min for weapons to drive the Japanese out of “French” Indochina, any guesses what his decision was? I tend to asses situations based on knowledge of the region’s history, and not nationalism. And, I despise “revisionist history.”

I've read Cherkasy's users twitter accounts, there is nothing about such huge explosion, though the city got three hits 4 hours ago. Looks like this is old video of some ammunition depot explosion  

Ukranian farmer have stolen Russian Strela-10  
 
 

That is obviously not Ukraine. Think before you post.

The squad of 92nd brigade (BTR-4 on first cadres) fights with Russians in Kharkiv
Captured Russian ammunition in Kharkiv

Captured Russians. On first video Russian soldier says he is from 25th Guard motor-rifle brigade (Luga, Leningrad oblast, Western military district), machinegunner. They entered to the city with 4 Tigrs to secure some circle road. I think, this is recon battalion of brigade.

There are sporadic clashes in Kyiv with diversion groups. Many groups managed to detain without a shooting, but they are mostly locals, Russians as a rule armed and resist. The one policeman was killed today, when tried to chek the documents. 
Total curfew declared from 17-00 Friday until 8-00 Monday. Any, who will be on the street witjout special document will be concider like potential diversant. 
Not far from my house on important road there are two fotified chekpoints established, which controlled by territorial defense troopers and armed volunteers. They are now together with police secure the city inside, when all army, National Guard and even SBU special forces Alfa involved in outer perimetr defense. 
Firing of Pions not far from my house looks like brought results - enemy field ammunition depot in Hostomel are make big boom (on the photo) 
Reportedly SBU Alfa with support of Army mopped up again Hostomel airfield and captured many Chechens.
Russians shelled large building of children clinic almost in the center of Kyiv. Not far from of it a Ground Forces Command building is deployed. I havn't info what kind of weapon was used and direction, just reportedly 1 child was killed, 2 more wounded as well as 2 of clinic personnel

So it is about 11 pm in Kyiv so let's summarize day 3 of this nasty bit of business.  If I miss anything feel free to jump in. [aside: people will recall when Iran shot down that Ukrainian airliner (just weird) how a bunch of internet nerds figured out where the shooter were before western intel did, well this little thread is doing one bang up job of intel analysis so I wanna try and capture that].
Caveat - this assessment is based on unclassified open source intelligence, much of it unverified or unverifiable at this time.
Strategic Level:  While the strategic causes of this military action by Russia remain vague and unconfirmed (i.e. I still have not seen a reason "why now" beyond "why not"), the overall most likely strategic objective is the total defeat of Ukraine as a nation, followed by installation of a puppet regime as a demonstration to NATO and western powers of Russian power in the region. 
The overall Russian strategy in this action was to overwhelm the Ukrainian forces quickly with a knockout blow aimed at Kyiv designed to break the will of Ukrainian resistance.  It appears that this objective was in a 48-72 hour window, other strategic objectives are largely unknow at this time (?).  One of the biggest strategic unknowns at this time is the overall will of the Russian people to continue to prosecute this war, current Russian leadership likely remain fully committed and short of a regime change will not likely voluntarily pull out.
Over the last 72 hours Europe and the West appear to have solidified their stance on this war with respect to increasing sanctions and military support to the Ukraine.  China and India remain two global powers who have not engaged in punitive measures against Russia, nor have they provided direct support to Ukraine. Another unknown at this time is whether Turkey will close the Black Sea to additional Russian maritime forces.  
It is clear that outside Russia, at least, Russia has not managed to control the strategic narrative for this war nor have dis/mis information campaigns been effective widening divisions in Western responses.  In fact the opposite appear to be true as this action has created unity in NATO and the European community, at least in the short term.
Operational Level:
- As of 72 hours into the war there is evidence that Russia has not achieved air superiority, information/cyber superiority, decision superiority or effectively eroded the Ukrainian infrastructure (military or civilian) or power centers of gravity at the operational or tactical level.  Russian advances on a multi-pronged assault have made modest gains however it appears that some lines of advance may have stalled. 
- Russian casualties are likely high (again very hard to get specifics) or at least higher than expected.
- There are indications that Russian logistical systems have failed in some locations, whether this is an indicator of isolated issues or a broader issue remains unknown.  Evidence of fuel shortages has been presented suggesting disruption in operational LOCs
- Russian forces are currently of questionable quality along some axis of advance at least based on captured POWs.  Further based on largely anecdotal evidence, it appears that Russia has not employed a form of Mission Command, nor really provided any detailed SA to some Russian tactical units (again based on POW interviews).
- Latest reports are that heavy concentrations of artillery are forming one the outskirts of Kyiv, which could signal a shift in strategy from a "knock out maneuver" toward a more "shock and awe" approach, or the Russians have essentially opted for an attritional approach to Kyiv at least. 
- Ukrainian forces have demonstrated a level of lethality and coordination beyond expectations of open source analysts and likely Russian planners.  How much of this is do to outside support and how much is due to Russian setback remains unclear.  
Tactical:
- Ukrainian forces have broadcast examples of both ambush and deep strike, the role of specific military capability remains vague.   The effectiveness next gen ATGM systems and MANPADs remains unknown but reported high armored vehicle casualties indicate they have been effective.
Overall Summary:  As of the first 72 hours of the war, it appears that the Russian military has overestimated its own capabilities and/or the capabilities of Ukrainian resistance and has not likely met the timelines it had set during pre-war planning.  The assessment is that the next 24-48 hours will be critical in the outcome of this war and if Russian forces are not about to take Kyiv and inflict some serious damage to the Ukrainian people's will, their own strategic center of gravity will become more vulnerable. 
Did I miss anything?  Seriously, jump in.

No, he says "My task was to drive along UKR border. Why for you came to Ukraine? I don't know... Why for you shelled all around? I don't know...."
He is from 35th motor-rifle brigade, captain, Aleysk town, Altay, Central military district

Gents a gentle prod we are keeping this thread open by talking about Ukraine. Russia has invaded Ukraine 🇺🇦 

Some words about tactic of Russians. They use a tactic of "small raid groups" somewhat similar to Mongols in Mediaeval times. Their BTGs are moving to own goals initially in composition of company groups , but after they approach to own objectives, they disperse on small combat groups - usually 1-2 platoons with reinforcement and make probes on own front in own sector. In this way they search weak points in our defense. If they find a hole or they can overrun our defense - other part of combat group join itself again and continue own advance.  
During seizing of towns and cities they use in mass small diversion groups, which sneak to settlements as civilians or on the captured Ukrainian vehicles, wearing in Ukranian uniform. Among diversion groups not only militaries, but also police, SOBR and local pro-Russian elements, but the role of latter is mostly to paint special markers, leading to primary objectives with special UV-paint. 

Easy to keep them in the dark...
Let's hope these reports are true and that Ukraine treats any prisoners well as they will return to Russia and you want them to know the truth. 

Have you ever heard of the "phrase out of the frying pan into the fire"? I think that succinctly describes the Polish being "saved" by the Soviets. It might be a good analogy for Ukraine but history will judge that.

So this
 
And this is, victim blaming.  An angle oppressors and abusers have used forever: “this is your fault for struggling”.  It is the little old lady’s fault for getting shot.
I am not sure what the Ukrainian’s should do they are a free people (for now) who are fighting and dying for that freedom.  I think Russia should stop because the loss of life is entirely on them right now.  I think Russia should pay for the damage it has caused and toss out its current government while it is at it and rejoin the international community.
But we are being all realistic and pragmatic. Ok, same answer.  Realistically this will devolve into a long running insurgency backed by western powers that will make Iraq and Afghanistan look like a grade school dance - so awkward but adorable.  This will likely create destabilizing pressure on Putins regime and instability in Russia itself.  So from a Russian point of view Ukraine rolling over and quitting is the only good option at this point.
And I for one sincerely hope they find a way to remain a free and democratic nation able to chart their own destiny.

Perhaps they consider the alternatives to be less palatable. "They" here, being the people of Ukraine, who, it seems are pretty invested in making their country unpalatable to the Russians. Perhaps they think that the people of Russia will find the prospect of their sons getting ground up in multiple urban battlefields for no good reason more unpalatable than accepting that force majeur isn't the best way to make friends and influence people.
It's just a little bit early to be speculating about "likely" outcomes. A week ago, many people thought an actual invasion was "unlilkely". The war (and it is a war, though I haven't heard anyone with a good idea of what Russias goals are; I'm sure they have some, but whether it's regime change or annexation remains unclear) two days in and it's certainly not the fait accompli that might have been expected in some quarters.
Perhaps, though I'm advocating nothing, merely suggesting reasons that Ukraine and Ukrainians might be disinclined to adopt supine capitulation as a method of resolving the conflict at hand.
That's a really good question, to which the Russian half is very difficult to determine. If Putin's goal is to make the defensive NATO alliance take a step back from its eastern borders, then he's doing the wrong things. The preposterous claims he's making for internal consumption don't constitute a negotiating position (and any cessation of hostilities will be a negotiation, even if one side has a distinct advantage; there's no realistic prospect that Ukraine will just give up, especially when they don't know what they'd get if they did).

I'm not Ukrainian, but at the moment, I reckon they'd settle for Russian troops just getting the hell out of their country. They're not likely ever to be in a position to demand reparations for the damage done to their country. They can look at Russia nowadays, see the way that Putin runs things, and reckon that even at the cost of thousands, it's worth attempting to emulate the success of the Muj in Afghanistan. It's not for me to judge where they draw the line. It's their country, and worth fighting for to exactly the extent that they consider it so, since they're the ones doing the dying.

It's just as easy to tell people to give up and accept the jackbooted heel of oppression from afar, as well, when you won't be under that heel.

Edited to add: France waited 4 years, Poland waited a similar time. It wouldn't be unreasonable for Ukraine to be thinking in those sort of timescales.

And the Ukrainians should just knuckle under to a dictator who enforces his will with draconian measures and flat-out lies, because the West is leaving them to swing (which they aren't)? The Ukrainians aren't fighting Putin because the West wants them to, they're fighting him and his gangster buddies because they don't want to be ruled by them. This battle isn't about getting Crimea and Donbass back it's about resisting international criminality.

Aragorn2002,

Am well aware this isn't my thread. As has been many times stated, though, this is intended to be a thread focused on the invasion of Ukraine. Yet there has been a ton of discussion of many topics not directly pertinent to the purpose of the thread. BFCElvis has several times issued reminders on this score, and I got dinged on this Forum myself for being OT while making an argument against a position taken by another member ref leadership. Given the stated  purpose of the thread, I find the discussions of China invading Taiwan, what India might do, China's position in this mess during and afterwards, not to mention the post-invasion world order, fascinating as they are, to be way beyond the scope of this post's stated purpose. My views, and YMMV.

Regards,

John Kettler

This is BS.  Biden specifically offered to negotiate on arms control, which would include strategic weapons deployments and basing.  That is not what Putin demanded.  Putin demanded Ukraine be left open to attack by Russia if Putin deems it desirable. No defenses. No security agreements.
This is not about NATO defensive security pact. It is about having a successful, non-authoritarian Little Brother right on the borders with Big Brother.

I'm ok. I just too tired about all these news monitoring, so I havn't enough energy to write here. Today I tried to depart my wife from the city to her parents in more calm Cherkasy oblast, but we can't reach to railway station. Municipal transport stopped on the left bank of Kyiv, though on the right it works like and subway. 
All day from my balcony, wich exits to Obolon' and Vyshhorod periodically heard a sounds of shellings. Now I heard outcoming shots of our 2S7 Pion guns, located in 5 km from my house close to city limit. They fire somewhere to the west, where Russian troops concentrates to attack on the city. All day there were periodycal clashes on the line Irpin'-Bucha-Vorzel-Hostomel. There was attempt of Russian tank attack from Chernobyl zone through Ivankiv on Kyiv, but because of we had a time to demolish the bridges through the Teterev river, they halted. 

IMO no we already supplied Javelins and other weapons so that boat has already sailed.
NATO has been very clear and open with the Russian Cabal no boots on the ground but supply of weapons will happen especially if Russia crossed the border.