Holien

Decent SPGs, but a long wait time.
 
 

In other news:
This rate is devastating for RU economy as no RU business is profitable enought (unless it sell cocain). 

Ok, I was following up to here.  Why would a strategy of attrition be ruled out?  First off we do not know which troops are being killed.  If those are all front line conscripts, ok Russia can probably sustain that.  But commanders,  gunners, mechanics and ISR specialists are a very different story.  How fast can the RA replace AD and EW expertise?  There is a qualitative metric missing in this whole discussion.
The same goes for equipment.  We already know Russia is losing more equipment than it can replace.  It has had to dip heavily into old war stocks.  Attrition to the point that all the RA has left are leg infantry would work very well in that Ukraine need not worry about losing operational ground - in this environment troops cannot walk to Kyiv.
Next, what is the strategic pressure?  All those dead and wounded are a pull on Russian society.  We hear rumblings and rumours all the time.  At what point does Russia run out of excess human capacity and their society starts to turn?  Like the Russian economy, the answer is not “never”.
Finally, attrition is where things are at.  We cannot dump enough hardware on Ukraine right now to break the denial/defensive primacy of this war.  Someone has yet to field a solution to the deadlock and until they figure it out, attrition is where things are at.  We have heard a lot of hand wringing on “oh dear attrition, we must be losing.”  Well no, so long as one can do it better than the other guy it can be very effective in warfare.  Sometimes it feels like we ran out of ideas when manoeuvre stoped working.  

Gah, imagine being Taiwan or South Korea or Japan or Vietnam and watching this absolute ****show. Or Europe. How the hell can any state that relies on American military deterrent be pleased that the Arsenal of Democracy is apparently slumbering?
Shameful. We have thousands of Bradleys piled in storage and we have sent according to wiki, about 200? It was acceptable to say at the beginning, "Ukraine needs to get the logistical pipeline set up" before shipping more, what the hell is the excuse now? This is bull****, expecting Ukraine to conduct offensives with what is virtually hand me downs and a sprinkling of equipment. (Sure, sure artillery shells)(humbug)
How is Taiwan supposed to be feeling good about facing the world's manufacturing giant and then comparing to this? This was supposed to be America's time to shine, to illustrate that time is indeed on our side, instead Xi and Putin are gambling time is on their side and our inability is costing the lives of Ukrainians.

Mobilized are not allowed to return. They will serve until the end of SMO (or death). Mobiks you are talking about most likely were not mobiks at all - certain contract soldiers and zeks had loopholes that allowed them to return. That loophole was closed some time ago (mobiks never had it).
 
Currently, RU is sending even injured and crippled people to the warzone
 

Regarding quality of RU infantry 
I have heard the same thing from my local contacts from different part of RU.
 
From various UKR comments pre-war Strategic intent of UKR General Staff was to attrit the RU army to the point where it no longer functions as a cohesive modern fighting force. Interestingly, it was planned to be accomplished not via sheer manpower losses (since RU can replace cannon fodder), but by attrition of officers, specialists, modern equipment, and weaponry.

Hmm that's a fact huh? What about Europe, Australia we've cut them off?
 
Ahhh Russia recruitment from Africa and Nepal is running rings around Ukraine, nice to know...

I think what is missing from your theory is the issue of actual UA losses.  As you note, the 110th has remained at Adiivka for  "1.5yrs of war and 4 months of sustained assaults." before they need to be reinforced or rotated out.  While at the same time, RA units on almost continual rotations would suggest very skewed lass ratios in UAs favour.
Without a real sense of Ukrainian losses it is very hard to make a force generation assessment.  And then there is a the qualitative aspect - something also missing from your theory.  Russia might be able to take 20k civilians and stick old rifles in their hands, but these are not trained infantry.  We do know that European and Western run Force generation continues and they are focused on solid basic infantry training.  So if the UA is producing 5k trained infantry, while the RA is pushing out 20k meat waves, we are back to losses and who those losses are made up of.
One thing we can see, is the fact that the front lines move extremely slowly and at great cost.  Further, the odds of an RA breakout, and making real operational gains, remains low...lowering with every loss of equipment wasted on these attacks.  The Russian theory is that they can keep sending low-quality troops to die, while inflicting just enough attrition on the UA to tip the balance (this is not a new strategy).  We really are not sure what the UA theory is, but it appears to stay and hold onto areas the RA really want in order to inflict a level of casualties that is not sustainable from a Russian point of view.
I do not think we are in a position to be able to definitively point at either theory as right or wrong at this point.  What is odd is that even as the UA are running out of artillery, the RA has not suddenly made great advances at lower costs.  Now if the RA assembles a real manoeuvre formation and manages to punch through the UA line we could start making some deductions.  But last I heard, the UA can plant mines too.

The reminder very emphatically did not come from the White House. It came from GOP Rep Mike Turner and Jake Sherman actually did a press briefing to express bewilderment that a Republican on the Gang of Eight would publicize the secret subject of a meeting scheduled for the following day.

Yep, the RN with it's two new white elephants have arrived just in time.
Mind you easier to defend them when they are sat in dry dock being repaired as they can't even be trusted to sail to Norway.
 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/14/joe-biden-could-send-millions-of-artillery-shells-to-ukraine-for-free-tomorrow-and-its-perfectly-legal/?sh=539a38ba20c7

"The law caps annual transfers of so-called “excess defense articles” at a total value of $500 million a year. But the same law doesn’t dictate how much value the president assigns to a particular weapon. He in theory could price an item at zero dollars."
"Biden only rarely has used his EDA authority for Ukraine. And where he has used it, lately it’s been a part of complex “ring-trades” where the U.S. government gives excess weapons to third countries—Ecuador and Greece, to name two—then encourages those same countries directly or indirectly to give to Ukraine some of their own surplus weapons."
"Why Biden hasn’t already put in motion this plan is unclear. It’s possible—likely, even—he prefers to hold out for $60 billion in fresh funding, which gives him more options for buying, or even developing from scratch, a wide array of weapons for Ukraine.
But once Biden decides, as many other observers already have decided, that Russia-aligned Republicans never will approve more money for Ukraine, he could lean on his EDA authority—and speed millions of shells to Ukraine’s starving batteries."

Like most Russian propaganda, it's probably not really meant to be believed or disbelieved.  It's meant to cause arguments and distrust,  widen divisions and increase mutual suspicion between those who chose to believe it and those who chose not to. Whether Putin would actually prefer Biden or not is a completely unrelated Issue. 
It's meant to generate heat,  not shed light.

All misiles were intercepted on approaches to Kyiv. Though we have impacts in Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro,  Khmelnytskyi and Kharkiv oblasts
Here is giaint crater on the place of falling of intercepted missile near Bucha. It could not necessarily be a ballistic missile, but cruise too - soils NW from Kyiv are soft with many of sand, so even lesser impact can throw out many of soil. In nearby village seven houses were damaged by shockwave
  
 
Total statistic of the strike - 26 missiles launched/13 intercepted:
- 12 Kh-101 (8 intercepted)
- 2 Kalibr (2)
- 4 Kh-59 (2)
- 6 Iskander-M/ KN-23 (1)
- 2 S-300 (0)

SBU caught a spy trying to relay shipbuilding(/drone) information to russia and iran.

Or create a bigger drone which would be in essence a self-propelled torpedo tube for one of those ex-Soviet wake homing monsters.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_65_torpedo
You would not need more than 2 of those drones on station at the same time. Once the wake homer is in the water it can swim at 50 knots (27 nautical miles range) or at 30 knots (whopping 54 miles). If released from 10 miles away at an unsuspecting ship, in about 10 minutes that ship should be in two halves. And in the worst case even if the target ship notices the incoming torpedo and tries to escape, it just acquired a Moby Dick on its stern going after it for miles and miles. Scary weapon.
 

https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/how_many_russian_landing_craft_left_in_black_sea_after_caesar_kunikov_has_sank-9516.html

 

Peace on Russian corruption and dated equipment.  But almost everything you list on that Type 45 is designed either for 1) enemy conventional aircraft, 2) enemy missiles and 3) enemy conventional surface combatants.
Not a lot are designed for swarming small surface or air systems, let alone small underwater systems.  Ships create big defensive bubbles but are not designed nor built for these sorts of threats, any better than modern mech was.
So if someone were to say, swarm that Type 45 with 50-100 small surface and flying FPVs those systems would quickly be overwhelmed, particularly in choppy seas.  None of those small system could kill that Type 45 but they could do critical damage which is just about as good as.
We of course are going keep putting up freakin Thales commercials and feel better until someone seriously damages one of these ships out on the open ocean.  Gawd help us when sub-surface gets into the game.  And then someone is going to hybrid and put FPVs onto a small subsurface vehicle so we get twice the fun. 

Don't judge the Western Navies based on Russian Navy incompetence.
Let's look at Russian ship Caesar Kunikov

What protection does it have against small boats? Two twin 57 mm (2.2 in) DP guns

It is old Soviet tech, and most likely it does not work properly. If it works at all.
What else does it have? Well, guys like this.

This is absurd. It's no surprise that his tin can is now submersible (or at least what remains of it).
Now, let's look at Type 45 Destroyer because it is the main escort of the White Elefants.

What does this fellow have?
Two DS30B rapid fire cannon

Two Phalanx CIWS

By the way, here Phalanx fires at surface target
Two .50 Cals

It is already impressive but here is more. 
T45 usually have at least one helicopter

The name of the helicopter is Wildcat, and it can carry up to 21 LMM missiles. 

When this boi gets into the air, the swarm attack stops.
Is that all? Nope - as soon as vodka hits the fan 30mm will get their own LMMs

This is how LMM works (different mount)
The swarm of small boats is not a new threat. Western Navies have been preparing to counter it for a long time. But RU Navy haven't since difficulties of dumb Western Navies do not apply to superior Russian Navy and do not impede my thieving activity. Now RU chickens come home to roost.
Do not be dumb and do not be corrupt is the main lesson we can get from RU Navy drone debacle. 

Moscow Exchange Abruptly Halts Trading as Technical Issues Surge in Russia (newsweek.com)
Trading on Russia's stock exchange was abruptly halted on Tuesday due to technical issues, authorities said.
The Moscow Exchange, the largest exchange group in Russia, was halted at 1:58 p.m. Moscow time (5:58 a.m. ET). The platform said that trading on the stock market would resume at 3:45 p.m. Moscow time. Newsweek has contacted Russia's Foreign Ministry for comment by email.
Part of the issue is that Russia has relied on Western microchips to power items such as laptops and smartphones. However, sanctions imposed on the country following Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine have meant the Kremlin has faced obstacles in procuring foreign-made chips and is now attempting to ramp up domestic production.
The Moscow Exchange said the issue was caused by a hardware error on the main server. "According to the exchange's procedures, in case of such an error occurring, a switch to the backup server is carried out, which takes a little over an hour," it said in a statement.
The Moscow Exchange previously halted trading for four hours on September 13, 2023. Earlier, in 2015, the trading platform experienced 11 simultaneous failures caused by technical issues.
Independent Russian news outlet The Moscow Times reported on Tuesday that technical issues surged in Russia last year, driven by Western sanctions imposed in response to President Vladimir Putin's war in Ukraine.
Mikhail Sizov is managing partner of Mobius Technologies, a Russian technology consulting firm. He told local publication Kommersant that demand from Russian companies for the repair of hard drives, tape drives, controllers, motherboards and other components of foreign computer equipment increased fivefold in 2023, compared to the previous year.
"Last year, 80 percent of our requests for repairs occurred in the second half of the year. We plan to develop this area by expanding the list of components that we can restore," Sizov told the outlet. He added that he believed this surge was linked to "sanctions pressure and problems in the logistics of equipment supplies."
Sizov said there is a lack of spare parts in the Russian market, and many crucial components are sold at an inflated price.
In September 2023, Kommersant published a government document that said Russia won't be able to ditch critical Western technology any time soon, despite the fact that Russian officials are asking that the use of microchips from the West be phased out by 2035.
Kommersant said it would cost at least 400 to 500 billion rubles ($4.4 billion to $5.5 billion) to expand the production of microchips in the country at a volume that will compensate for the industry's current shortage.

[EDIT] Sorry, it is old report from January. I confused dates.
Regarding Kstov Fuel Plant I wrote about earlier RU reports
Anatoly Nesmian (RU civilian Girkin) comments
 

If I were Taiwan, I would start building 4 factories for these naval drones this week. They are shockingly effective.

Deep State and Mashovets reports UKR marines are slowly expanding the bridgehead in Krynky

A bit of good news from Avdiivka
This night UKR destroyed column of RU reinforcements moving toward the breach

Also, UKR soldier reports

RU Nats complain that simple machine gunners using unstabilized mounts are the primary defense of RU Navy warships against drones. These gunners have an effective range of a few hundred meters. So, I think drones imitate attacks but halt outside the effective range of Russian machine gunners. When they find an area not covered by MGs, one goes for a kill while the rest of them transmit the results for BDA.

Regarding fires at RU fuel plants. Below is Milov explanation (from the interview)
The production of RU fuel began to drop. It has already fallen by 4%, with Lukoil production fallen by 8%. It is a significant drop because the RU fuel market is quite delicate. There are two factors here: UKR strikes and a rise in equipment failure due to unknown [to Milov] causes, but most likely due to poor maintenance and repair as a result of sanctions [sanctions work but more slowly than expected]. All of the equipment used to produce high-quality gasoline is Western. The RU has just about two dozen fuel plants. Thus, critical disruption of RU fuel production is possible. It is possible to achieve this by damaging or destroying two types of infrastructure. First, facilities for catalytic cracking which is essential for high-quality gasoline production (Kstovo plant strike). CC facility can be easily targeted, and RU has few of them (and they are all western, so there is no quick replacement or manufacturer assistance).  As result at the moment Lukoil is unable to repair the damaged CC facility in the Kstovo plant. The second type is the Primary Oil Refinery facility (Krasnodar plant strike). The damage to the POR facility interrupts the entire oil production process, but replacements are simpler to find. It's worth noting that only five main fuel plants supply the European part of RU. Other plants are either smaller, older (cannot produce high-quality fuel), or too far away. So, the present UKR campaign of oil plant strikes is smart and sensible. It is already causing problems for RU. The average price has already increased by 30-50 kopeeks [RU cents] per liter. 
 
The Russian government is going to apply significant pressure on oil companies to keep prices from increasing (which may succeed in the near run). However, the RU gasoline market is in a fragile state right now, and if the UKR campaign continues, it will cause major issues.