Holien

Yeah, this is first video allowed to publishing. Reportedly there were several successfull interceptions of Orlan-10 and ZALA. UKR UAV community already have some developments of fast FPV interceptors, but by known reasons information about this doesn't issue. Now works are directed to get at least "beta-version" of interception complex (detection, guidance, drone-interceptor) to unload SHORAD from most tasks of drone hunting.  

I can understand why the US went nuts over this if the Ukrainians used Patriots inside russia against US wishes. However, I'd argue the facts on the ground have changed now.
Firstly, Ukrainian forces have been killed and territory has been lost because of the VKS's use of glide bombs. There is a need to use long range AA that hit targets in russia that didn't exist back in summer 2023.
Secondly, it's very difficult to argue it would be escalatory when it has already been done and didn't result in an escalation. Unless one wants to go down the rabbit hole of 'ah but this time it may be escalatory'.
Thirdly if the ban is in place as punishment for that incident, the Ukrainians have been punished enough (IMHO)
I really feel for the Ukrainian operation planning guys. There are some countries saying yeah you can use our stuff in russia. Some are saying you can use some of our stuff in russia. And others saying no you can't. Take F16s, the Dutch are saying whatevs and the the Belgians are saying 'don't use our stuff in russia'. Mission planning is hard enough without that added crap.
I can imagine a scene where a M777 crew are having to work out who provided a particular shell before they can decide whether it can be fired or not.
Anyway, rant mode off!

They could be referring to this as per the ISW from a few days ago - https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26-2024
 

It appears the game changer in the war was the US Switchblade kamakazi drone, but not in the way it was intended. I recall a report that the Ukrainians considered $600+ a shot to be much too expensive to deliver what was ostensibly a 40mm grenade round on-target. So they threw themselves into reproducing Switchblade's benefits at a fraction of the cost. That gave birth to 'drone warfare on the cheap', which is quite different from the TB2s and Orlans which had started the war.

Here's a CNN report from today detailing extensive Russian torture and sexual violence in occupied Ukrainian territories. It's not an easy read. This is what Ukrainians have to look forward to if they give up. This is what other Eastern Europeans have to look forward to if we do not stand strong with NATO.
Survivors say Russia is waging a war of sexual violence in occupied areas of Ukraine. Men are often the victims | CNN

Again, here is the thing…maybe they were.  We never tested our c-ATGM doctrines beyond exercises in Europe…and shockingly the mighty tank (we had spent billions on) was still relevant.  Much like the lessons observed in the wars leading up to WW1 we basically ignored stuff that did not fit our model.  If that model was never truly tested, and it wasn’t, then one cannot simply say “ well tanks were relevant because we kept using them”.  I mean, sure, human history of warfare is not full of examples of us hanging onto military capability well past its expiry date…he says reading about cavalry wearing shiny armor in WW1.
And then there is the inconvenient fact that ATGM technology developed a lot in the last 50 years while the tank really hasn’t evolved that much.  We stuck on some better armor and a computer in the gun.  They also got larger, heavier and burn more gas.  APS was about the only major development and it is lagging ATGM capability, let alone drones.
Then in 1991 we had one of the largest confirmation bias events in military history.  We looked at the Gulf War and said “the system works!”  While conveniently missing the fact that the Gulf War was not a peer-on-peer conflict.  We beat up a one eyed goat with developmental challenges and went “see, now let’s spend another few trillion on this stuff.”
And then when we saw weird stuff happening in places like Chechnya, Nagorno Karbak, and Ukraine…we went “silly Soviet doctrine”.  So going all the way back to the last real peer on peer tank actions we see the major impact of small, smart and precise missiles and go “meh, Israel still won and we kept using them…so they must still work.”
Tanks may have been put on the endangered species list back in 1973 but we ignored it.  Here we are in 2024 watching all sorts of weird evidence over a two year period and the analysis is still. “Meh, Ukraine is winning enough…they must still work…we will keep using them.”  Probably the last thing Austro-Hungarian Cavalry said after shining their breast plates in 1914.
For me this war is an Ostfreisland moment, and frankly I think it is for most modern militaries.  And what happens next will likely follow the same pattern:
”The leadership of the US Navy, however, was outraged by Mitchell's handling of the tests; the 2,000 lb bombs had not been sanctioned by the Navy, which had set the rules for the engagement. Mitchell's bombers had also not allowed inspectors aboard the ship between bombing runs as stipulated by the Navy. The joint Army–Navy report on the tests, issued a month later and signed by General John J. Pershing, stated that "the battleship is still the backbone of the fleet."[62] Mitchell wrote his own, contradictory account of the tests, which was then leaked to the press. The sinking of the battleship sparked great controversy in the American public sphere; Mitchell's supporters exaggerated the significance of the tests by falsely claiming Ostfriesland to be an unsinkable "super-battleship" and that "old sea dogs ... wept aloud."[62] Senator William Borah argued that the tests had rendered battleships obsolete. Mitchell was widely supported in the press, though his increasingly combative tactics eventually resulted in a court-martial for insubordination that forced him to retire from the military.[63]”
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SMS_Ostfriesland

This is sadly an inevitable potential outcome if AD is used against Russian aircraft, who seldom cross the lines to perform strikes. It should be viewed as an acceptable risk. 
This is honestly a very good point. Ukraine has had to go from an entirely soviet modelled force into something between that and NATO lines in the last ten years. Its not been easy and plenty of sources refer to the issue that the older generation of officers and certain elements of the force are still very much stuck in the soviet ethos of doing things. Even with the younger generation of officers thinking differently, these sorts of structural changes can take a long time to push through.

Reforming an army on such a scale is not easy in the slightest, especially when fighting a war of survival. Despite all this Ukraine has shown a truly flexible and innovative approach to in cooperating advanced NATO technology into their force.  We have already seen such craziness such as HARMs being launched from Mig-29s and BUKs carrying sparrows. There is clearly the skill and willingness for clever improvisation and I dont see going anywhere soon. 
BVR missiles are going to surely be the focus given the current nature of air combat over Ukraine. From what I remember reading up from Ukrainian pilot sources, Russian pilots learned very quickly not to get within short range missile range and instead stand off with their BVR capability advantage together with superior avionics. Stand off seems to be the current name of the game and its one where the VKS currently enjoys a major advantage. UA pilots cannot do much else than attempt to lure VKS pilots closer and otherwise fly low and cautiously. Its a testament to the skill and tenacity of the Ukrainians that they even have airframes flying at this point given the disparity. 

What they need more than anything is a capability equaliser on that front so presumably the best AMRAAMs possible will be desired. Its a shame that the Ukrainians are unlikely to get a platform that can launch Meteor though, for that would truly have the VKS soiling itself given its hilariously dangerous capabilities. Not to say the latest AMRAAMs are not dangerous of course.  They may not have the range of some Russian BVR missiles in service, but I suspect their lethality is significantly higher when packaged with something like F-16 with its fantastic avionics suite.

https://www.regeringen.se/pressmeddelanden/2024/05/militart-stodpaket-16-till-ukraina--ny-formaga-som-starker-ukrainas-luftforsvar-och-stod-som-moter-ukrainas-prioriterade-behov/
 

Reminds me of a computer RPG called Kingdom Come: Deliverance, set in the Kingdom of Bohemia in 1403.
Seriously the best computer RPG that I have ever played. The developers did a great job of conveying the feeling of living in Europe during the days of lords in castles and knights on horseback. Highly recommend it to fans of computer RPGs who like reading about this era.
A sequel is coming this year, really excited to play it. 🙂
Anyway, back on topic.
 

Next S-400 gone? There is also information that a strike was at the building of former High military aviation Navigator school
  
 

I've wondered several times how viable I would be fr the UN or the EU (/not/ NATO) to introduce a separation force (similar to the ones around Israel) along the uncontested pre-2014 borders, like the one along Belarus and - until a few weeks ago - round the corner and down past Kharkiv, and then down the river.
Putin would likely lose his rag, since he likely views, officially at least, the whole country as 'contested' regardless of whether there's currently fighting there or not.
From the non-Russian perspective, though, it would make it clear that smaller and smaller bits of Ukraine are still up for discussion. It would also extend the West's air and AD umbrella over most of Ukraine, preventing most missile activity.
Lot's of practical issues though - the seam between Ukrainian and non-Ukrainian forces would be /very/ fragile and delicate. Some of the non-Ukrainian forces /would/ die, even if 'only' from UXO. Putin would have a total **** about it, and Xi probably wouldn't be best pleased either. It would allow Ukraine to focus all it's forces on a smaller area, but so too would Russia. Etc.
Otoh, the areas inside the cordon sanitare could safely start to rebuild, and it'd be a super duper clear message from the West that, no; we are not going to let you 'renegotiate' this bit that you already tried and lost.
Edit: UN would be a non-starter due to Russia's (and probably China's) veto.

Ah, I know this tactic.  Try to show the admin is banning any dissenting opinions and that we are nothing more than a cult.  Nice try but BFC Admins have been very generous on this thread…to a fault at times.  

Gotta admit, my troll timer had run into overtime.  Good to see though, means we are still relevant enough for Russian IO to make the effort.  Perversely it has the exact opposite effect that they are shooting for and demonstrated how poorly Russia understand the West.  Want us to go away?  Let us get bored and distracted.  Want us engaged?  Tell us we "can't or won't do something".  This guy did more to motivate me to support this war more than anything for quite some time.

Ukraine's been systematically going after long range radar for awhile. My opinion is they're 'shaping the battlefield' in anticipation of the imminent arrival of F16. In Ukraine's eyes if it can peer deep into Ukrainian airspace its a legitimate target.

Fightbomber apparently states that this occurred on April 21 and he himself noted the attack when it occurred. We can safely assume no red line crossed if Blinken's visit resulted in him being okay with western weapons being used in Russia.
 

Update from Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the AFU:
https://t.me/osirskiy/698
 
 

Reportedly Crimea under mass missile and drones attack again. 
Explosions in Alushta - locals say "anntenna" was demolished. Likely radar site or comm center was struck. Some sources say about some imporatnt FSB (?) object with large antenna of space communication.
Since Soviet times there was a radar/AD unit on Castel mountain SW from the city. After occupation of Crimea, Russian press wrote, they will substitute one of two old former Soviet/UKR radars for newest Russian.
Explosions also were heard in area of Perevalne - base of 126th coastal defense motor-rifle brigade and ammo dumps, Saky and Simferopol. No information yet about objectives of results

Good lord, I think we have been too close to the problem on all this.  This entire Kharkiv thing may be far simpler than we have been thinking.  What if the RA realized it simply can no longer sustain the losses of playing smash face down south and shifted to Kharkiv in order to “stay on offensive”?

For those that don't check the BBC news an interesting article on how Ukraine is tackling corruption. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55rpqlp31o
Every country is corrupt in someway, what matters is how the leadership and institutions try and stop it from bleeding the country dry.
Funny what excuses some folk come up with to stop supporting Ukraine.  🙄 
Lot's left to do and really a never ending job.
 

For those that don't check the BBC news an interesting article on how Ukraine is tackling corruption. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55rpqlp31o
Every country is corrupt in someway, what matters is how the leadership and institutions try and stop it from bleeding the country dry.
Funny what excuses some folk come up with to stop supporting Ukraine.  🙄 
Lot's left to do and really a never ending job.
 

For those that don't check the BBC news an interesting article on how Ukraine is tackling corruption. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55rpqlp31o
Every country is corrupt in someway, what matters is how the leadership and institutions try and stop it from bleeding the country dry.
Funny what excuses some folk come up with to stop supporting Ukraine.  🙄 
Lot's left to do and really a never ending job.
 

For those that don't check the BBC news an interesting article on how Ukraine is tackling corruption. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55rpqlp31o
Every country is corrupt in someway, what matters is how the leadership and institutions try and stop it from bleeding the country dry.
Funny what excuses some folk come up with to stop supporting Ukraine.  🙄 
Lot's left to do and really a never ending job.
 

For those that don't check the BBC news an interesting article on how Ukraine is tackling corruption. 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq55rpqlp31o
Every country is corrupt in someway, what matters is how the leadership and institutions try and stop it from bleeding the country dry.
Funny what excuses some folk come up with to stop supporting Ukraine.  🙄 
Lot's left to do and really a never ending job.