Holien

Capt,
Simple answers is all people want...
Make peace - Simple problem solved
Send more tanks - Simple problem solved 
Capt keep up the good work - it ain't simple...
 

Could have been worse than where we are now as Ukraine would have had to take more troops off the front line to learn and integrate an influx of equipment.
You clearly forget the discussions at the time that we needed to send soviet era kit as easily used by Ukraine.
We could not just dump modern kit into Ukraine and expect it to be used effectively.
People want easy answers. This war isn't easy and there is no magic wand. Sure we need to better upgrade Ukrainian military forces, but that ain't easy...
 

Ok, help me out here because following the bouncing ball is becoming really difficult.  Obviously, I am no stable genius, you are completely losing me.  So to review:
- You came back to this forum and opened with "Hey fellas, anyone think Ukraine is out of military gas and we should think about peace negotiations?"
- Then we began a discussion on a possible operation down south at Kherson.  You vehemently disagreed, ignored evidence and pretty much dismissed any and all Ukrainian military options at this point in the war.  Steve even called you out for this.
- Ok, I got tired of trying to explain why the southern operation is viable - you clearly were not in a listening mood on that one.  Then I called you out and challenged to to provide your "solution.
- Your solution was for the US to double-down on support and "threaten" Russia to a negotiation table.  Some vague hand-waving but we could have a UN Zone of separation, Ukraine in the EU (but not NATO), some sort of vague Ukraine defence and security guarantees, Ukraine gives up Crimea and Donbas, and reparations and war crimes are pretty much a long shot.  Did I miss anything? 
- Of course to do this, the US would need to commit an overwhelming amount of support to this war.  Likely an order of magnitude more in order to "scare Russia to the table quickly".  Side-stepping the obvious problems of US political will, process and internal frictions -  Russia is not stupid and knows these issues as well - the ability for Ukraine to upscale and operationalize all that support could likely take years, but ok...for arguments sake let's just assume all that away.
- As a self-proclaimed UK citizen, you are essentially making the end-state of this war entirely a US problem, which is frankly disingenuous; however, let's just put all that to the side too.  If Ukraine receives a whole mountain load of military support...why negotiate?  Increased military support would create new military options for the UA to renegotiate the current Russian position by f#cking killing them.  If the only way to solve this is with overwhelming US support, why on earth wouldn't Ukraine use that support to push the RA out of their own country?  "Hey Ukraine, here is enough capability for you to re-establish air superiority.  What?  Oh no, you aren't supposed to really do it.  No, you can use that to give Crimea away, lock in exclusion from NATO and agree to a shaky ceasefire."   Seriously...W.T.F?!
- So after that little journey we are right back where we freakin started...Ukrainian military options in prosecuting this war until Russia can't do anything about it. Which you started off dismissing in the first place!
So rather than come on here and advocate for more Ukrainian support (particularly out of the US) from the beginning, you took us on this personal exploration of Ukraine being out of options unless we support them better.  We had to walk through what peace looked like in your mind...which frankly looks a lot like going back on the offensive once the UA is bombed up.
I swear to gawd if you are not kevinkin back on another account I will be shocked.  If you are honestly a Labour Party carrying member of the UK, you are locked in the mother of all Dunning-Kruger effects.
Regardless...got it.  Thank you so much for highlighting that we need to support Ukraine more, and any negotiations must be from a position of strength.  Let's just move on...

Well you might want to sit down and have a conversation with yourself then because these are the exact same lines being used in the MAGA camp right now = "easy button of US power", "vague hand waving on details" and obstinate belief that there is an easy solution in face of obvious counter-facts.  Oh, and let's not forget the obstinate refusal to see any viable solution other than your own because of "what you think".  FFS we just had FlimFlam or whatever in here doing pretty much exactly what you are.
Look, maybe you are who you say you are and this whole thing is a big miscommunication, but your timing and profile are highly suspicious.  You posted once back in 2013 and then disappear for 11 years, only to come back on this specific thread espousing a lot of the same lines we have heard from the US political far right...just after Adiivka.  Your problem space is straight out of the MacGregor school of analysis and your solutions are pull straight from the MAGA camp.
Whatever, fine.  You have clearly expressed your opinion and now we all know it.  
 
 

Yeah, I agree.
Even with refurbishments the quality problem is not yet materializing on lets say "to a critical" extent. T-80BV and T-72 2000's models keep coming. By many estimates (including "perun"), the cases of T-55 and T-62 have been because of totally different production, warehouse and ammo "pipelines" for these being fast and available. 
We shall see when Russia starts choking here. Next year by most estimates. 
https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1



 

Ok, well now we know which camp you are in, and it definitely is not the "liberal peacenik" one.  Hmm, and I wonder which presidential candidate should be best qualified to flex this immense political power and which one is "weak and indecisive"?
Regardless, we are talking about negotiating from a position of strength here, which runs directly counter to your original position of "Ukraine is out of all options, therefore should sue for peace."  In fact you have been arguing vehemently that there are no military solutions left...and now you want to make some?
But, ok, lets put that all aside.  So if the US is going to "threaten" it must be ready to follow through.  What you are proposing is on an entire different scale than the support we have seen.  First problem will be getting the US political machine to agree to these levels of spending, and very fast spending - cries of oversight and corruption will ring.  Next problem is putting the UA in a position where they can actually absorb, integrate and operationalize these levels of support; not insurmountable but no small challenge.
Next, Ukraine will need to demonstrate military victory on the battlefield.  One cannot simply "threaten" with the Russians, we tried that.  One has to demonstrate.  So we are back to creating viable military options.
And then there is this part: "In negotiations, West agrees not to take Ukraine into NATO, but accepts into EU, and makes concrete security guarantees to in any case. UN peacekeepers in along border. Russia gets symbolic non-NATO status for Ukraine. No future invasion of Ukraine for Russia."
That is weak.  EU is an economic and diplomatic union, not a military one.  UN peacekeepers is actually an idea I have floated but one would definitely need a new Russian regime to even get Russia in the room to negotiate.  Ukraine outside of NATO would need binding security bi-lats with western troops in Ukraine a la South Korea as a minimum.  I think Ukraine outside of NATO leaves too many dangerous mouseholes open - this is why Finland and Sweden jumped in.  NATO is the one thing that appears to deter Putin and Russia and I suspect it will be the only way to actually secure Ukraine in the long term.
You are also pretty weak on reparations and war crimes.  Maybe it is the medium but your position kind of feels "oh well...watcha gonna do?"  There can be no road to renormalization with Russia without these conditions being met, that much must be clear.  If we go soft on this, certain political parties will try and weasel back to "business as usual". 
The only way the US can use its power, short of an all out war, is to push support into Ukraine in order to sustain resistance until Russia falters - we can definitely agree on this.  The idea that "this is easy" and "could be done tomorrow" is dangerously amateur and short-sighted thinking, currently being expressed by some sectors of the US political landscape...and not new to this board. 
Russia must be in forced into a position of "had enough?"  and not "hey can you please?"  At least under this regime.  This cannot be done "overnight" or "easily" under the current constraints.  This is in fact threading a pretty tough needle.  Too much and one faces uncontrolled escalation, or a full on Russian collapse...both of which are worse that this current war.  Too little and things drag on too long and western resolve and attention slips again.  This is a tricky and challenging situation in that the US cannot employ its immense power to the fullest without making thing worse both internally or externally.  This is also a pretty high stakes proxy war that must; stay limited and result in the slow death of the Putin regime and doctrine, create a secure and stable Ukraine, and somehow set the conditions for future broader regional stability.  This is not a "deal" one can make in a weekend. 
 

It could be that to protect the bridge they need the ships out patrolling...
Who wants to bet that Ukraine has more Drones than Russia has ships...

It could be that to protect the bridge they need the ships out patrolling...
Who wants to bet that Ukraine has more Drones than Russia has ships...

This night UKR drones struck Russian oil base in Belgorod oblast. Initailly local authorities reported one fuel tank is burning, but later local media already told about three fuel tanks in fire
 

Background sound is old Norvegian folk song in version of Ukrainian medieval-folk group "Spiritual Seasons", who often played on our re-enactments events ) 

"Sergey Kotov" according to interceptions of radiochat was attacked by 5 drones. Together with a ship Russians lost her onboard helicopter Ka-29
And again Budanov developed own sense of humor. Soviet rear-admiral Sergey Kotov has died in 1999 in Ukrainian Feodosia. Near Feodosia reportedly the ship "Sergey Kotov" was sunk
 

Yep...
Hindsight a wonderful thing....
As if we even knew Russia WAS going to invade...
Going forward Europe is showing every intention of upping it's support despite some folk saying otherwise...
Ukraine is NOT out of the fight and if it addresses some weaknesses it will certainly stay in the fight longer than Russia has...

Havent seen the news here yet but russia officially ended Armata development, citing its high cost as  mine clearing vehicle

Germany never showed "every intention". We have discussed that at length, and we are in line with most of the rest of the West, unfortunately.
The economy is declining as it sometimes does. "no end in sight" is a bit over the top IMHO.
The interest in Ukraine has declined. Of course, modern society is easily bored. The amount of newsworthy items has gone down. But look at us: downing an A-50 has even us only occupied for a few days until we derailed again.
But: the amount of support given by Germany is pretty stable, and I don't see that changing (see below).
That may not be necessary. The political constellation is currently, that the biggest supporters of Ukraine are both in the government (greens & liberals(*)) and the opposition (conservatives).
The next government will most likely include one or two of those parties. Thus, it is most unlikely that support for Ukraine will falter.
 
(*) not 'liberal' in the US sense of the word

A (probably paywalled) WaPo article about Ukrainian recruitment efforts. It largely echoes @Haiduk's comments from yesterday.
_____
Syrsky has been tasked with auditing the existing armed forces to find more combat-eligible troops, after Zelensky’s office recently announced that of the 1 million people who have been mobilized, only about 300,000 have fought at the front lines. But nearly a month after his promotion, no one in the military leadership or the presidential administration has explained where those 700,000 are — or what they have been doing.
More than 4,000 amendments have been made to the mobilization bill, and some lawmakers see the measure as an attempt by Zelensky to pass off responsibility to parliament for inevitably unpopular decisions.
“It’s time to start an adult conversation with society and not to be afraid of it, ” Bobrovska said. “It’s not 2022, when emotions took over.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/04/ukraine-mobilization-zelensky-russia/

Well then I suggest that those Germans who are reading this, and want Ukraine to be supported get involved and get in touch with their elected representative.
 

Yep Jon has a very dry sense of humour.
It is the same level of Joke that with Leopards earlier the war would be already be over...
We are where we are.
Hindsight and rewritten history is inevitable, humans being human.
Doesn't mean that there shouldn't be pushback on those spinning a message so it does have to be countered.
 
 

I think the broader point is that Ukraine is not a teenager - all the tragedy but no accountability or responsibility.  There were a lot of strategic failures in the run up to this war and they do not all lay at the feet of Europe or the US.  The global arms industry is incredibly large and Ukraine could have leveraged that to be much better prepared for what was a pretty obvious threat on its eastern border. (https://www.brookings.edu/articles/its-time-to-stop-us-arms-sales-to-saudi-arabia/#:~:text=A total of 73% of,averaging %2410.7 billion per year.)
Of course hindsight being 20/20 it is also fair to admit that no one really thought Russia would go this far.  We pretty much expected another nibble in the Donbas, maybe consolidate that strategic corridor.  A full on grab was not the assessed most likely COA. Further Ukraine did move mountains within its military in those 8 years, the most important of which was to set themselves up for integration into western C4ISR.
As has been noted, we are where we are, which is here.  And all that really matters is what we do now.

Capt,
Simple answers is all people want...
Make peace - Simple problem solved
Send more tanks - Simple problem solved 
Capt keep up the good work - it ain't simple...
 

Well then I suggest that those Germans who are reading this, and want Ukraine to be supported get involved and get in touch with their elected representative.
 

"Using incomplete Soviet-era drawings, specimen track links from Ukraine, then the inspection of vehicles, manuals and the loan of track specimens from the Tank Museum, Cook reverse-engineered the tracks and drive sprockets for MTLB, BMP, and T72 vehicles... "

Capt,
Simple answers is all people want...
Make peace - Simple problem solved
Send more tanks - Simple problem solved 
Capt keep up the good work - it ain't simple...
 

Seriously and @squatter can look here too.  For anyone advocating Ukraine pursuing peace negotiations or suing for peace - easy to say but no one in this camp has provided a coherent theory of what that would look like right now.
Let’s say “Ok, you guys are right. Ukraine is out of options here. There are no viable way for Ukraine to continue to prosecute this war.”  Ok, so what?  What would peace negotiations look like?  How exactly do you guys see these “peace negotiations” happening.  Every time I ask this question I get some hand waving but no one has yet to unpack just how any peace negotiations could end up in anything but weakened western influence and a more vulnerable Ukraine that Russia is going to exploit.  What peace negotiation, that Russia is going to accept - while, as we are continually reminded, Russia is still capable of waging offensives to take ground?  What possible leverage does the west or Ukraine have in guaranteeing Ukrainian independence and security.  Is Russia going to offer reparations?  How about war crimes prosecution?  Is Russia going to give up an inch of ground it has taken?  Are they going to push for recognition of Crimea and Donbas as Russian provinces.
This is what is so disingenuous about this line of advocacy - at best it is delusional liberal left “let’s give peace a chance”.  At worst is it far right BS designed to program failure into this entire war so that their presidential candidate can be “right all along”.  In both cases the idea of peace negotiations right now is an empty coffin where actual ideas on this war go to die.  We may very well need a negotiated end-state in this war, but suing for peace now, while on the back foot is going to embolden Putin and his regime…and is exactly what they are looking for in order to promote themselves “Look we brought them all to their knees”.
But let’s open the floor.  Please walk us through what a peace process would look like right now.  Let’s stop sideline heckling on won’t work and tell us what you think will work.

Could have been worse than where we are now as Ukraine would have had to take more troops off the front line to learn and integrate an influx of equipment.
You clearly forget the discussions at the time that we needed to send soviet era kit as easily used by Ukraine.
We could not just dump modern kit into Ukraine and expect it to be used effectively.
People want easy answers. This war isn't easy and there is no magic wand. Sure we need to better upgrade Ukrainian military forces, but that ain't easy...