John Kettler

Interesting analysis of Russian logistics, trucks and tires from someone who knows a thing or 2.
Interesting take on corruption, use of wood in Russian trucks and why Russians are moving slowly.
 

The Steppenwulf,

Would think having the lieutenant colonel in charge of SOBR move against Kviv being captured and publicly admitting what SOBR was going to do and apologizing publicly afterwards had a lot to do with Gavrilov's being sacked.

Regards,

John Kettler

akd,

They don't wish to star in the next Bayraktar TB2 successful strike video!

Regards,

John Kettler

Systems like the Protector RWS C-UAS looks like a promising way to deal with drones, especially the cheap commercial ones. The US Marines have signed a contract for it, using 30mm grenades with proximity fuses. 
https://defence-blog.com/us-marine-corps-awards-contract-to-kongsberg-for-counter-uas-weapons/
 

Truth

I found this to be a good read. Especially on the food part.
https://newlinesmag.com/first-person/putins-killing-machine-that-isnt-working/
 
 

sburke,

How on Earth can you rationally argue I'm posting on conspiracy when the a super qualified former military officer of vast experience and honorable service to this nation is talking soberly and seriously about what he perceives to be the realities of Ukraine, bearing in mind that he was the top advisor for the Acting SECDEF, Chris Miller, too? The firm he co-founded is devoted to consulting on foreign policy and defense matters, and his work has appeared in such publications as Foreign Affairs. The same pseudo-logic being used to reject what Douglas MacGregor has to say could equally be used to reject everything we've gleaned from Russian information, on the spurious basis of where we got it.

The information stands or doesn't on the credibility of the source and how it stacks up relative to the various knowns and/or logical conclusions about the subject matter, based on observables, declaratory policy, etc. The reasoning being applied here by some woukld destroy intelligence work, because anything from the other side would be automatically rejected because of its origin. I have zero control ref who interviewed this man, but what I'm seeing here in the responses is that the rejections are occurring, not on the basis of the information itself, but simply where it appears. Suggest you do some elementary research about how social media and various actions directed against sites hosting not just conservative views, but even non-mainstream views from the other end of the spectrum, have all but. strangled expression of such views.

Channels have been shut down, sites demonetized, Google ratings downgraded (if you're not Page 1, you might as well not exist)and organic search traffic suppressed, and this list is by no means complete. Have experienced some of this myself in my own endeavors. There have also been well-documented moves in the financial sector, such as by PayPal, to deny the ability to donate or refuse to process payments to contrarian persons and groups. You may also find what happened to Parler and how fast instructive.  

The reality is that the ability of contrarian views to the ones promoted by the MSM and supported by the highly discriminatory and ever escalating censorship, suspension and permanent ban practices of Big Tech have made it hard to find places in which to express those views. And note well who is calling for yet more such actions and how that's being done. None of this is conspiracy theory, because the facts are plainly in evidence, and huge class action suits have already been filed as a result. The net effect of these things is to silence many potential hosts on the one hand and leave contrarians on what many consider to be fringe sites. I am keenly aware of the latest limits Steve has imposed and, as you know,I  have operated for years under an earlier set of topic limitation requests. 

In any event, because I consider this information he presented to be both important generally and highly pertinent to what we're seeking to do in this thread, I've found another site which hosts an interview Lt. Col. MacGregor did on Rumble. 

https://www.onenewspage.com/video/20220316/14523375/Colonel-Douglas-Macgregor-Putin-has-already-defeated.htm

Regards,

John Kettler

Retired US Army Lt. Colonel Douglas MacGregor, who was senior advisor to Acting SECDEF Chris Miller, has a decidedly contrarian and exceedingly sober view on what's really happening in Ukraine. He had a long and distinguished Army career, and was one of the US Army's brightest and most innovative officers. Learned about him through a brief mention of him in a OSINT show I watch, and not only has be been on TV but interviewed quite a bit on internet shows, too. He sure seems to really know his subject matter and talks specifically in terms of Putin's objectives: must haves, things unacceptable to him and so on. One key takeaway is that Putin is determined to turn Ukraine into a neutral buffer state, thus removing a perceived threat on his front door. NATO membership for Ukraine is obviously a huge unacceptable for Putin given his strategic goal. MacGregor is very clear powerful forces are pushing for, not just proxy war in which Ukraine is carrying NATO's water and Ukrainians are dying because of it, but a full-on NATO war against Russia. In one interview I saw, he even got into the discussion of conditions under which nukes might be used. He was of the view that Putin wouldn't go nuclear first. That said, as I've pointed out several times in this thread, declared Russian strategic doctrine of years standing recognizes both Russian pre-emptive strategic strike (to stop a strategic attack against Russia) and the use of a nuclear strike or strikes (not necessarily strategic weapons, either) to restore the status quo (positive Russian CoF) when CoF has gone negative.

https://anti5g.net/index.php/2022/03/16/upon-the-market-us-army-colonel-macgregor-putins-goal-in-ukraine-almost-reached/

Regards, 

John Kettler

Can tell you from long and bitter experience that vehicles can and will bog on dry ground.  Not only that, they can and will Immobilize! If you have a high end AFV, that's the one this will happen to--with its flank exposed, no less. Contrariwise, if your oppnent had one it will kill everything of value, starting with your Combat Mission hopes and dreams, while being immune to anything you try to do to it. 

Regards,

John Kettler

MikeyD et al.,

At least in some competitive group format, the Nabla System, the brainchild of our own Jarmo Hurri (Nabla) and Mike Meinecke back in the CMx1 days, was specifically built for imbalanced and even sure loss scenarios, because the metric wasn't how you did in absolute terms, but in how you did relative to everyone else playing your side in that particular scenario. Instead of obsessing over how unfair the scenario was, the player on the feces covered end of the stick instead focused on not just combat performance but force preservation and especially evacuating unhorsed AFV crews and prisoners, since both counted double points in assessing your individual performance. No longer was it a fight to the last tank and last grunt. See no reason why what worked great in CMx1 wouldn't do just as well in CMx2

http://cis.legacy.ics.tkk.fi/jarmo/nabla-system/manual-alpha.pdf

Regards,

John Kettler

Time for a break and an oldie but goody.
aah stranger in a strange land, great book - In 2012, the Library of Congress named it one of 88 "Books that Shaped America"
 

Based on a number of translated Russian comments I've seen, this is considered by Soviet veterans of the Afghanistan War to be the most accurate Russian film depiction of the war ever. It's 1988, and a VDV regiment is trying to extricate itself from Afghanistan. Somehow, the film manages to distill an entire war down to roughly 2 1/4 hours. It's nasty, brutal, vicious, confusing, definitely not for people with weak stomachs, but it's an immersive experience which includes so many facets of the war, yet never straining to do so. It's unfortunately the Russian is translated, so much of what the Afghanis say has to be figured out from expressions, body language and behavior. The Aghanis are not ciphers, but rather are families caught in a whole series of plights, including their own internal forever war, if you will. The main war is a horror for both sides, and the Soviet Union, in its familiar form, is disintegrating while the troops are out of country. The young and ambitious contrast strongly with the long-suffering and battle weary old hands. Injury and death are everywhere and spare no one. Weaponry overall seems a great fit for the period, and in some cases is applied lavishly.

Don't know how this is handled in CMA, but the VDV guys, some minimally attired, are atop their AFVs, not in them. The AFVs are period correct, and there's a mod I never saw before in the intel reporting coming from Afghanistan. Believe there are lots of gaming possibilities here in the film.
 
Regards,

John Kettler

1 ABCT, 3 ID was shown several times on Twitter last week drawing Stocks-2 equipment from the POMCUS near Mannheim, Germany. Included in that was were numerous Abrams tanks. Based on what I can recall, Stocks-2 had not been used in quite some time. My ex-Army Scouts brother cautions that this could simply be a unit getting ready to go on combat exercies, but I have the strong feeling that part of this is signaling, both to the Kremlin and our NATO allies, of how seriously we take what's going on in Ukraine and where it might go from there. 

Regards,

John. Kettler

Can tell you from long and bitter experience that vehicles can and will bog on dry ground.  Not only that, they can and will Immobilize! If you have a high end AFV, that's the one this will happen to--with its flank exposed, no less. Contrariwise, if your oppnent had one it will kill everything of value, starting with your Combat Mission hopes and dreams, while being immune to anything you try to do to it. 

Regards,

John Kettler

DesertFox,

In a nutshell, this is REFORGER, but on a smaller scale (so far) than the full-blown version. Most interesting article on the move.

Regards,

John Kettler

1 ABCT, 3 ID was shown several times on Twitter last week drawing Stocks-2 equipment from the POMCUS near Mannheim, Germany. Included in that was were numerous Abrams tanks. Based on what I can recall, Stocks-2 had not been used in quite some time. My ex-Army Scouts brother cautions that this could simply be a unit getting ready to go on combat exercies, but I have the strong feeling that part of this is signaling, both to the Kremlin and our NATO allies, of how seriously we take what's going on in Ukraine and where it might go from there. 

Regards,

John. Kettler

Javelins are used, it's just that they weren't filmed in any cool cinematic way because they aren't as omnipresent as NLAW and aren't as safe to use as Stugna.
But there is a video that was released just yesterday where two of our guys at the front lines were talking about how on the first day they shot 5 javelin missiles from their position, taking out two tanks and two APCs before finally getting spotted by another tank and getting knocked out by a shock wave... and then escaping hospital after only a week to get back into the fight where they are now - and once again armed with Javelins.
So those are used alright.

sburke,

Melnichenko's Yacht A is one of the most hideous vessels I've ever seen,  maybe the most hideous.  Characterized it as the illegitimate offspring of of an incompetent blacksmith and a ship designer with no sense of beauty. The other seizures pictured are lovely vessels.

Regards,

John Kettler

 

Unless something has changed drastically over the years, Russian tanks do not have lower side hulls made of armor steel. It's just standard steel. This was absolutely true for the T-55 and T-62, and I believe true for the T-72. Not sure after that. Believe this design choice is based on both cost and expected hit location based on combat findings and OR. In Afghanistan, the muj discovered they could kill the driver of a BTR-60 via AK-47 fire into the foremost left side wheel well, ultimately resulting in the installation of a field expedient protective plate. While I don't have the 2A-42 penetration figures handy, I have every confidence that it could demolish a tank by firing into the lower side hull.

Found it interesting that the Azov BTR-4 engagement was conducted on the move throughout and that display res was far better than even what I saw on a T-14 conducting a shoot with its thermals.

Regards,

John Kettler

panzermartin,

Let me answer your Su-25 RTB question in a particularly unforgettable way. In the Georgia WAr, an Su-25 took a direct engine hit by a Buk and made it back to the base. The hit obliterated the engine, but an armored firewall between the two engines kept the disntegrating engine from destroying its neighbor. Compared to a Buk direct hit, a MANPADS to an engine, barring, say, a catastrophic fire or such, is exactly why the plane, a shameless lift of the Northrop Grumman YAX-9, was able to survive the hit and RTB. It's also why the plane, like the one that became the A-10, had two engines and fully redundant flight controls.

Regards,

John Kettler

Here's an unboxing and tasting of the latest PLA MRE, the Type 13. THe own shown is but one variety. The troops don't like it these MREs, and consider them too bland, to the point where they bring their own food on exercises.
 
Regards,

John Kettler

Also the super rare stuff...
 
 

panzermartin,

Let me answer your Su-25 RTB question in a particularly unforgettable way. In the Georgia WAr, an Su-25 took a direct engine hit by a Buk and made it back to the base. The hit obliterated the engine, but an armored firewall between the two engines kept the disntegrating engine from destroying its neighbor. Compared to a Buk direct hit, a MANPADS to an engine, barring, say, a catastrophic fire or such, is exactly why the plane, a shameless lift of the Northrop Grumman YAX-9, was able to survive the hit and RTB. It's also why the plane, like the one that became the A-10, had two engines and fully redundant flight controls.

Regards,

John Kettler