Bil Hardenberger

I know everybody is excited and would like to know what is next after the Base Game... believe me we are all excited too!
As far as follow-on modules go.. yes several are planned, but what they are specifically we will keep to ourselves until after the game is released.  For now the focus must stay on the base-game for us, but feel free to conjecture and dream, I enjoy those threads, but we won't be confirming or denying anything until after this one is on the street.
Just so you guys know that we aren't ignoring you in those discussions, we are trying to stay focused and not get sidetracked so we can deliver this thing in time.
Cheers, Bil

And I would argue that the point you are missing is that on a strategic and operational level they took that “pretend force” and advanced deeply into the country they were invading and still hold over 20% of it.  We can slight their tactical capability all day (and do) and even though they have been a mess strategically and operationally there is nothing Potemkin or “cargo cultish” about the threat they pose or what they were capable of at higher levels of warfare, particularly at the beginning of this war.
It is as slippery a slope to under estimate the comparative tactical capabilities, as was demonstrated by many experts before this war.  They failed to downscale their strategic and operational assessments and we saw pretty quick the results on the ground quickly failed to meet predictions.  Hell three days into this thing we knew all of the higher level assessment were off because of what we saw on the ground.
Underestimating cuts both ways.  It is just as dangerous to try and take tactical shortfalls and upscale them directly onto the operational and strategic levels.  We have witnessed too many brilliantly conducted strategic campaigns with low quality forces in the VEO space to fall for that one.  Russian tried a form of combined arms that simply did not work; however, they still translated that into limited strategic/operational objectives.  
It was the Ukrainian way of war, supported by the west, and some emerging realities of warfare that broke the Russian system.  Ukrainian forces learned faster and better.  Without western support would we be talking about a Ukrainian offensive at all?  Without Ukrainian fast development of capability?  No, the RA was a hot mess and is a dumpster fire at this point but that was not the determinative factor in this war.  They had enough mass advantage, as ugly as it was, that if this was a battlefield of even a decade ago they might have pulled it off.  This is the biggest problem with the “Russia Sux” narrative, it is far too easy an answer.  It misses a lot of nuances and complex factors that we have literally been tracking right here.
The RA was a fumbling mess but it was at the gates of an enemy capital.  They still are resisting and will likely still be on occupied ground by this winter.  What I am on the lookout for are signs the Russians are actually learning.  For example, they bought a bunch of Iranian UAVs but they are using them as ersatz cruise missiles, not to improve their C4ISR game…which is a good sign they are still not learning.
Finally the biggest reason I am firmly against the “Russia just sux” narrative is that it encourages us to stop learning.  If that is the definitive unifying theory of this war then all phenomena can be explained by it, we have nothing left to learn.  This does nothing to inform us on the direction modern war is heading nor how we need to start thinking about it because it all boils down to “Russia Sux!”  Well 1) Russia is sucking but not everywhere, 2) that does not explain everything we have been seeing and 3) there are things happening in this war that “cargo cult” does not explain and we are way off if we start to thinking that way.

I know everybody is excited and would like to know what is next after the Base Game... believe me we are all excited too!
As far as follow-on modules go.. yes several are planned, but what they are specifically we will keep to ourselves until after the game is released.  For now the focus must stay on the base-game for us, but feel free to conjecture and dream, I enjoy those threads, but we won't be confirming or denying anything until after this one is on the street.
Just so you guys know that we aren't ignoring you in those discussions, we are trying to stay focused and not get sidetracked so we can deliver this thing in time.
Cheers, Bil

I returned to Red Thunder having never really given it a fair shake (I don't have F&R but will soon) and resolved to try and grind through the Soviet campaign.
I struggle with the Micro at Bn scale but have got used to it now, and I enjoy trying to apply lessons from @Bil Hardenberger's great blog. 
 
Honestly I am struggling a bit. The issues with Hammer's Flank are well known (there's at least one huge thread) and It is what it is, but I'm able to get some successes but still can't quite work the Soviet infantry properly.
Specifically, I've got competent at scouting but on the third map It's extremely difficult to achieve fire superiority. Time and again I try and set up a base of fire and a defending MG squad overwhelms them with relative ease. The 2 81mm mortars I have for battalion support take 10 minutes for a fire mission and aren't particularly effective as keeping the spotter alive that long is a challenge. The map is wide flat with hedgerows and cottages for cover. There is a slightly elevated railway line towards the back but I am not there yet...
The fundamental issue is a base of fire from concealment (hedgerow or treeline) is vulnerable
Usually I'd bring up an assault gun but the map is laced with AT guns and they simply can't maneuver into firing positions. Plus the SU76 is probably the most brittle thing out there.
I'd picked an approach using the nearest edge of the town, which went okay but as soon as I find a dug in position (just beyond, right on the railway line) the I struggle to get effective fire on it. Then of course the arty comes in, exacerbating things.

I cant bring up an SU76 because it'll get popped by an AT asset (there's a big AT gun under the 'Depot' label, plus some others off to the right). The one mortar strike I managed did nothing, and if I position supporting fire troops in the hedge rows they get wasted after a turn or two. Anything inside of 200yds vs an MG42 team needs very good cover.
It's really, really hard to pull it off with just infantry. Any tactical pointers are appreciated. I'm thinking I need to use the hard cover of the houses more. I'll try that, but there's a whole company on this flank and bringing them all to bear is difficult.

Interpreting of last Mashovets posts
During last 5 days Russians have been crossing to active preventing of further advaning of AFU on Svatove - Kreminna section. They are trying to win a time for more solid defense establishing and want to seize more advantageous forward positions
NW from Svatove Russians are counter-attacking in area Kolomyichykha village with forces about 1,5 BTG of 1st GTA, mainly consisting of 27th MRB units
W and SW from Svatone Russians countering UKR troops on the line Raihorodka - Karmazynivka and also on direction Krasnorichynske - Makiivka. Here Russian forces consists of mainly of 3 BTGs of 254th MRR of 144th MRD and 55th MRB (moutnain), elements of some Spetsnaz brigade (likely 16th, but maybe 3rf too), elements of reservists volunteer battalions BARS-13 and BARS-16
Most active attempts not only to delay UKR forces, but even to retake the line Terny - Torske, enemy has conducted 4-5 days ago, atatcking of Terny and yesterday, shifted attack of Torske. Initially they have thrown forward 6th assault detachment of Wagner PMC, completely consisting of former jailed - 110 men. They attacked by two groups per 40-45 men with recon groups ahead, but anyway were spotted by UKR troops and shelled with mortars and artillery. Later Russians moved forward 2nd echelone - reinforced company of 752nd MRR of 3rd MRD, two platoons of BARS-13 reservists, and a rifle company of DPR mobiks (on the map mistakingly depicted as LPR) from 119th rifle regiment. Ememy had too small number of armor (likely only in 752nd MRR company and likely abot 50 % of full composition), but actively used artullery and mortars fire to support own troops. Russian attack was repelled, Wagner assauult unit lost about 30 % of personnel, at least one jailed was captured. He told about on their section soon will arrive one more assault detachment from the former jailed and about 30 % of personnel have high motivation to fight. Yesterday assault of Torske also was repelled, though Russians likekly could reach outskirts of the village - one soldier wrote "Russians are really in Torske, but only dead"
If we will take whole sector Svatove - Siveroidonetsk, Russians formed here two conditional groupings - "northern" (Svatove area) and "southern" (Kreminna - Rubizhne - Siverodonetsk).
Total their defense consists of 10-11 BTGs in first line and 6-7 BTGs in second line as tactical reserve. 4-5 more BTGs are in deep rear on replenishing.
Theese forces are from 2nd, 20th, 41st CAAs, 1st TA and elements of one Spetsanz brigade (16th or 3rd): 2 BTGs of 21st MRB, 2 BTGs of 30th MRB, 2 BTGs (remains) of 200th MRB, 1 BTG of 55th MRB (mountain), BTG of 27th MRB
Also here 2 BTGs of 4th MRB of LPR, 4 rifle battalions of mobiks from two rifle regiment (one of them 119th rifle regimeny of DPR), 7 battalions of LPR Territorial defense and mobiks, 6 detachments of different BARS and regional voulunteer battalins (total strength is about of 1,5 standard battalions)
Need to know, that Russian BTGs after Balakliya disaster in real in better case are "2 company-sized" or "reinforced company-sized". BTGs also lost from 30 % and up to 50-60 % of own vehicles
Russian grouping wich covers remained part of Kharkiv oblast and border area (Tavilzhanka - Troitske - Nyzhnia Duvanka) has 6-7 BTG: 2 BTGs of 55th MRB, 1 BTG of 15th MRB, 1 BTG of 252nd MRR of 3rd MRD, remains of BTG of 200th MRB,  remains of 59th TR of 144th MRD, combined battalion - remains of 18th coastal MRD of 11 Army Corps 
   
 

Teen uses dating app to get Russians to reveal their positions (msn.com)

Since when did what become an acknowledged fact?  
To restate my point - the Afghan withdrawal pathway started in February 2020 and was supposed to have been put to bed well before it actually was put to bed.  There is an argument to say that it was sooner than that as the previous US administration was widely reported to be on the cusp of a deal in 2019 but stepped away from the dialogue in September 2019 following the death of US personnel in a Kabul IED attack.  From those start points the obvious question to ask in relation to the theory that the Afghan withdrawal is related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February this year is ... was a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the cards in 2019 or 2020?
In my response to the reemergence of this canard ... President Biden announced the withdrawal decision on April 14, 2021 and being an insider on matters Afghan and somebody who regularly attended meetings at the European Delegation, HQ Resolute Support and the UK and US embassies, I can tell you for a fact that nobody in the international community in Kabul had any idea which way President Biden was going to go until the decision was announced.  The supplementary question; therefore, is ... was a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the cards in April 2021?  The article I posted in my last post indicates that this was not the case until September 2021 which was after the last US service member walked up the ramp of a C17 in Kabul. 
The main problem with politically motivated theories of this ilk (and this is one, because it has been doing the rounds for at least over a month now and the handling of the Afghan withdrawal is a subject of justified scrutiny in the US) is that very few people are prepared to run the facts down and, as I said in my August 18 post, the most obvious explanation is usually the right one
Feel free to challenge any of the above (on another thread) but Afghanistan and intelligence analysis is my day job, so it is always handy to have some facts to hand before doing so.
As to "actual proof that there was early intel" - that is a big ask - intelligence is generally classified and/or on a limited distribution.
To bring this back on topic - guess which country beginning with 'R' and ending with 'ussian Federation' has been buying up container loads of medical equipment, body armour, helmets and other assorted military paraphernalia from local suppliers in Kabul this month?

I do wish these videos would show the actual engagement, without edits.  These edited videos, which skip from the early fight to the aftermath, without the interesting bit in-between are frustrating. 

I do wish these videos would show the actual engagement, without edits.  These edited videos, which skip from the early fight to the aftermath, without the interesting bit in-between are frustrating. 

I do wish these videos would show the actual engagement, without edits.  These edited videos, which skip from the early fight to the aftermath, without the interesting bit in-between are frustrating. 

@akd
Here the full video of episode, where Russian T-80 destroyed UKR T-64 with point blanc shot, but this video filmed already from Ukranian drone. Part of it I've posted several hours ago, but this one has additional episodes of Russian infantry bombing from the drones. 
This was near Yehorivka village, Donetsk oblast - Vuhledar sector. I thought, Russians had (or seized) some positions in tree plant and our troops hit them hard with arty. Probably tank was sent there, but simultainosly Russian troops (likely 61st naval infantry brigade) sent there armored convoy with T-80 and BMP-3 - 6 vehciles total. UKR tank spotted the enemy, when they already approached. Maybe crew paniced, maybe gun failed, but T-64 got a shell from T-80 and set fire (at 0:48 - 0:54). But Russians also were surprised and became to roll back, probably expecting more UKR armor. When half of enemy armor became to withdraw, ATGM launcher of National Guard SOF unit "Omega" launched a missile. First hit mid Russian BMP-3, but it's abscent on next cadres, so it probably either could move itself or was towed away. One BMP-3 stayed near treeplant to take wounded or dead Russian soldiers from destroyed position. When it departed, next ATGM chased it.   
 

I like the completely irrelevant inclusion of the sunken Moskva just to remind everyone about it
 

BVP-80A squad in action somewhere on South
 

To restore balance:
 

Close-range tank fight:
 

Sorry for interrupting a lovely conversation about a deeply relevant topic but we have an interesting UKR rumor

Ukrainian Su-24 strike near front lines with high-drag dumb bombs (and a good reminder of how off CM is with dumb bomb employment):
 

There is potential for some very interesting Pacific war situations.. Khalkhin Gol and the early war from 1935 up to 1942-43 has some very interesting situations, the Japanese fought the Soviets, the Brits and Commonwealth, and the US.. how can that not be enticing? But this is not my area of expertise, and thus not really on my radar as a subject, though I do think there would be a market for it... if done right.
Bil 

You should put that on a T Shirt.

Oh no we pretty much all got your point.  I was attempting to elevate the discussion past your personal grievances and back to the root issue at hand.
But of course, we all know you have been wronged, it is a subject you have not been exactly shy about expressing.  We can only hope that this alleged injustice can be addressed in the fullness of time.  

It's a great news! 
Commander of Azov Denys Prokopenko "Redis" is free!
Deputy of Azov commander Sviatoslav Palamar "Kalyna" is free!
Acting commander of 36th marines brigade Serhiy Volyna is free!
 
 

Ah, now we are getting somewhere, revisionist state.  Totally agree.  I also agree that no small part of this is on us as we kinda lost the bubble on Russia after 2014 - pandemic did not help.
If Russia pulls out nukes, it will not go well for Russia; however, we do not need/want the collateral.
Ah, ok I think I see the misunderstanding.  The Crimea and Donbass are not about coaxing or preserving Russia, in fact beyond the nuclear equation, they are barely about Russia at all.  If we wanted to preserve Russia we would simply lift sanctions, although I am not entirely sure that would do it at this point.  Those sanctions are there to stay, hell Europe looks like they are institutionalizing them.  Military support is still strong and I do not think anyone has a problem with taking back every inch of post-2014 territory, and gleefully killing Russian soldiers while doing it. 
This is about "winning enough" so we can get off this thing before it goes into dark places.  There is going to come a point where we are going to have to play the western nuclear card and simply say "ya go for it and see what happens" - and mean it.  I am not sure Donbass and Crimea are it.  Look and I get if people are sore and pissed off, disappointed but hear it from me, given with love and tenderness.  I am also not sure that the political calculus of the western world supports dragging this war out for years to re-take the Crimea or Donbass under the current conditions.
It may change as things unfold.  For example if Russia does use battlefield nuclear weapons - we might balk, or we might double down, hard - "Here you go Ukraine, here are 100 HIMARs systems with ATACMS and a Wing of F-35s.  We have been weirded out by the effect this war has had on tanks, so here is a Brigades worth of M1A1s to test things out".  The West has in fact been remarkably restrained in its support - too restrained according to many - for this war.  There are likely veils in the C4ISR world that we have not crossed as well.
Anyway, whether we like it or not, all war is negotiation, and we are going to need to negotiate on this one.  Probably earlier than many want to, sorry, it sucks but at the end of the day every nation has to protect the interests of its own citizenry.  We want Russia back in a box, we do not want an uncontrolled nuclear escalation over the freakin Donbas.  Nor do I think we want a 5 year grinding campaign to re-take the Crimea - we have been to that movie. Should every Ukrainian in Donbass and Crimea who want to live free of Russian oppression be able to do so, absolutely - we will pay billions to build them new cities to live in, they just might be in another place.
Now if the UA were to take them very quickly, and Russia backs off...well we will all claim that great victory together. 
But hey, let's not get all down and despaired here.  Ukraine took on a global power and is crushing it on the battlefield - I mean the UA is re-writing the book on modern warfare. Russia has been blunted, even if they do not know it yet, for at least a couple decades.  I mean they are literally a punchline and this debacle rivals 1905 - now if we can just keep it from rolling into WW1, we are laughing.    

Captured T-72B3M tows away the captured T-90M, aka Shame Train: