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Elmar Bijlsma

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  1. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from LukeFF in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What does the Geneva convention say about meme-ing as hard as Ukraine does? Certainly, their media accounts aren't taking any prisoners.
     
    Probably the best social media since Wendy's went rogue and reshaped what was expected of corporate accounts. In the face of something so calamitous as a war of aggression by barbarians, it takes some big balls for official MoD accounts to start joking around.
  2. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What does the Geneva convention say about meme-ing as hard as Ukraine does? Certainly, their media accounts aren't taking any prisoners.
     
    Probably the best social media since Wendy's went rogue and reshaped what was expected of corporate accounts. In the face of something so calamitous as a war of aggression by barbarians, it takes some big balls for official MoD accounts to start joking around.
  3. Upvote
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from MOS:96B2P in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What does the Geneva convention say about meme-ing as hard as Ukraine does? Certainly, their media accounts aren't taking any prisoners.
     
    Probably the best social media since Wendy's went rogue and reshaped what was expected of corporate accounts. In the face of something so calamitous as a war of aggression by barbarians, it takes some big balls for official MoD accounts to start joking around.
  4. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from Blazing 88's in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What does the Geneva convention say about meme-ing as hard as Ukraine does? Certainly, their media accounts aren't taking any prisoners.
     
    Probably the best social media since Wendy's went rogue and reshaped what was expected of corporate accounts. In the face of something so calamitous as a war of aggression by barbarians, it takes some big balls for official MoD accounts to start joking around.
  5. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What does the Geneva convention say about meme-ing as hard as Ukraine does? Certainly, their media accounts aren't taking any prisoners.
     
    Probably the best social media since Wendy's went rogue and reshaped what was expected of corporate accounts. In the face of something so calamitous as a war of aggression by barbarians, it takes some big balls for official MoD accounts to start joking around.
  6. Upvote
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from DavidFields in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What does the Geneva convention say about meme-ing as hard as Ukraine does? Certainly, their media accounts aren't taking any prisoners.
     
    Probably the best social media since Wendy's went rogue and reshaped what was expected of corporate accounts. In the face of something so calamitous as a war of aggression by barbarians, it takes some big balls for official MoD accounts to start joking around.
  7. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What does the Geneva convention say about meme-ing as hard as Ukraine does? Certainly, their media accounts aren't taking any prisoners.
     
    Probably the best social media since Wendy's went rogue and reshaped what was expected of corporate accounts. In the face of something so calamitous as a war of aggression by barbarians, it takes some big balls for official MoD accounts to start joking around.
  8. Upvote
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to chuckdyke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Almost eighty years now but the Sherman had the best radio, optics, and stabilizer. 
  9. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to Calamine Waffles in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The thing is that he has a very "top trumps" approach to comparing tanks, where it's like, "oh, this tank has a better gun, better armour etc." mostly comparing hard stats without looking at the overall context in which the vehicles operate.
  10. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to Calamine Waffles in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I was looking at Flightradar24 around the time of the strike, and the only NATO aircraft near the area around the time of the strike were a KC-135 (HOBO20), USMC F/A-18 (AE22L, I assume flying CAP for the other aircraft), and a P-3C Orion (AA33), as well as a US Army HH-60M (appears to have landed sometime before the attack)






    The Global Hawk FORTE10 was there in the Black Sea earlier, but it bugged out about 6 hours before the strike (3:20 pm Sevastopol time (UTC+3))

    At around 5 minutes before the strike, the F/A-18 and KC-135 pulled back a bit, while the P-3C stayed in its patrol.


    Probably just a coincidence, but it seems like the strike, whatever was used to do it, occurred at around the time the P-3C was on the part of its circuit taking it closest to Sevastopol, while the KC-135 and F/A-18 had retreated a bit (possible they are refueling?).

     
  11. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to Machor in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russia's force projection in the Caucasus is down to nil:
     
  12. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It isn't clear to me that we can actually catch TSMC. But the economy of the entire planet is dependent on that one spot. I mean an earthquake would be a world shaking fiasco, pun intended. And we could cut the Chinese off if we had supply and Taiwan was a smoking ruin.
  13. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Depends on what you want to have happen to Taiwan. As long as Taiwan makes chips like no-one else does, it is safe. Even China cannot do without Taiwan. Building chip manufacturing might be wise for the USA to do, but throws Taiwan under the bus. China knows the USA will go to bat for Taiwan to protect it's chip sourcing. If those chips will be made in the USA, China must now be made to believe the USA will go to bat for the democratic values of Taiwan.
    Call me cynical, but I'd start sweating.
  14. Upvote
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Depends on what you want to have happen to Taiwan. As long as Taiwan makes chips like no-one else does, it is safe. Even China cannot do without Taiwan. Building chip manufacturing might be wise for the USA to do, but throws Taiwan under the bus. China knows the USA will go to bat for Taiwan to protect it's chip sourcing. If those chips will be made in the USA, China must now be made to believe the USA will go to bat for the democratic values of Taiwan.
    Call me cynical, but I'd start sweating.
  15. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from alison in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Depends on what you want to have happen to Taiwan. As long as Taiwan makes chips like no-one else does, it is safe. Even China cannot do without Taiwan. Building chip manufacturing might be wise for the USA to do, but throws Taiwan under the bus. China knows the USA will go to bat for Taiwan to protect it's chip sourcing. If those chips will be made in the USA, China must now be made to believe the USA will go to bat for the democratic values of Taiwan.
    Call me cynical, but I'd start sweating.
  16. Upvote
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Depends on what you want to have happen to Taiwan. As long as Taiwan makes chips like no-one else does, it is safe. Even China cannot do without Taiwan. Building chip manufacturing might be wise for the USA to do, but throws Taiwan under the bus. China knows the USA will go to bat for Taiwan to protect it's chip sourcing. If those chips will be made in the USA, China must now be made to believe the USA will go to bat for the democratic values of Taiwan.
    Call me cynical, but I'd start sweating.
  17. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That bit about the insignia at 9:00, where he mocks analysts who might spot the new one and draw conclusions. It's funny because he is dead on. Also, I feel a little bit seen.
  18. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Given that the munition seems to be travelling upwards before EFP is fired, this seems to be a plausible explanation:
    https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/land/m93.htm

  19. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1542639879749832710?t=J2zLZIqnUc3vtpZdKCrB0A&s=19
     
  20. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to G.I. Joe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Exactly. Insofar as early M4s had an issue with catching fire (I gather they were really not any worse than average to begin with) it was all to do with ammo storage. Once they introduced wet storage, the late model Shermans became one of the least fire-prone tanks of the war, diesel and gasoline variants alike.
  21. Upvote
    Elmar Bijlsma got a reaction from G.I. Joe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As a fair few T-72 crew are finding out, when someone gets through your armour, your fuel isn't what you need to worry about when you are stacking ammo in every place it can fit.
  22. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to Calamine Waffles in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Are we really bringing up the whole Ronson myth again? In 2022?

    https://www.theshermantank.com/category/ronsons/
     
     
  23. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to Letter from Prague in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hi there, another former lurker reporting.
    I want to say you're all incredible (except the Russian/pro-Russian trolls who can go nahui), and reading this thread I could not only stay up to date but I also learned so much about armies, tactics, politics and more. I do have to admin my knowledge of Combat Mission is limited to youtube tutorials at this point (Any plans for Mac version? Probably wouldn't be worth it since it's a custom engine.)
    I don't have much to else add: maybe arguing how "EU Army" would never work (just imagine it's led by Macron and Scholz), and that I find West response very underwhelming - considering Russia invaded another nation, caused atrocities not seen in Europe since WW2, kidnapped and enslaved hundreds of thousands of people including children, shelled largest nuclear power plant in Europe, purposefully caused largest refugee crisis in Europe since WW2 and is purposefully trying to cause famine by ****ing with grain supply ... I would hope that even one or two of those would get an actual military response, but no such luck.
    Oh and regarding Crimea - assuming Sevastopol is burning pile of rubble as is the bridge, I wouldn't expect the type of people who went to inhabit Crimean houses stolen from murdered people to want to stay.
  24. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to Beleg85 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hi
    Just to say hallo. I was lurker in this topic for last 450+ pages and must say I am impressed by what I read here; it's probably one of the best discussion boards regarding this war on anglophone net. Being forced to work for several years on different social platforms like Fb or Discord one cannot appreciate enough old Forum form. Lengthly posts, experts, culture of discussions- kudos, gentlemen.
    Anyway, I wanted to draw your attention to this article in New Yorker that is really worth reading.  https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/the-fight-to-survive-russias-onslaught-in-eastern-ukraine
    Beside veristic accounts on being under artillery barrage, the reporter spoke with deputy commander of Ukraine forces in Donbass gen. Tarnavsky and mayor of Kramatorsk, so really "big fishes". Some takes:
    -Improved Russian tactics “If before they simply marched in large columns, now they have started to actually fight,” he said. The Russian Army has split its forces into smaller groups, which it uses, along with a sizable fleet of drones, to identify and target Ukrainian positions, hitting them with artillery and air strikes. When a particular zone or village has effectively been levelled, ground troops—a mixture of regular Russian soldiers, Wagner mercenaries, and fighters mobilized from the Russia-backed separatist territories in Donetsk and Luhansk, Tarnavsky said—move in to try to seize the rubble."
    -Accounts of massive bombardments, sometimes even (hard to believe) of small Ukrainian squads being targeted by several Tochka missiles. Regular artillery advantage is 7:1, after which follows infantry in advantage 5:1 (mind you, it's general so probably best source around). Seems interesting in the light of changing balance between mass-firepower-manouver hypothesis by Freeman.
    -Very heavy Ukrainian lossess, especially among regulars and specialists. “They are replaced by doctors and mechanics. We have manpower, but much of this core is dfead or wounded”
    -Kramatorsk is being fortified in case enemy come. Mayor has no illusions- the city will become a battleground sooner or later.“We shouldn’t expect any miracles,” he told me. “It’s clear that the longer this goes on, the more territory Russia will gain.” His voice was both jovial and grave. “Let me give you my professional opinion as mayor: if we don’t get heavy weapons in two or three weeks, we’re ****ed.”
    So here are rather grim conclusions, different than those from for example ISW.
     
    Oh, just spotted other user posted article. Anyway, some of these takes may be interesting.
     
     
  25. Like
    Elmar Bijlsma reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Thanks ) Just became some more of work, my wife turned back and often occupies PC because her work, also it's hard to live three months 24/7 as war news translator, so I took small vacations 
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