JonS

It's only fair. The Ukrainian Navy is taking out the BSF, and the Russians want to take out one of the services too

It's only fair. The Ukrainian Navy is taking out the BSF, and the Russians want to take out one of the services too

Yeah, no way it was West.
I think this really really shows the disconnect in thinking between Russia and the West.
Putin is already saying this is existential war for Russia, he is already saying his objective is to destroy the West, and his people - whether random Russians or weirdos and traitors and useful idiots everwhere in the world - are already believing it. He is already doing everything in his power to do that too - from propaganda to interfering with elections to financing fascist parties to helping Hamas to working with Iran and China to assassinating people in other countries to attacking food to cause famine in Africa because refugee crisis empower Western Fascist to whatever else I have lost track.
Russia already escalated as high as they dared. If they could do worse, if they could do something more despicable, if they could do something more monstrous, they would have done it years ago.
I remember all these red lines - nuclear war if West gives Ukraine Javelins, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine tanks, nuclear war if West gives Ukraine planes, nuclear West gives Ukraine gets HIMARS, nuclear war if Ukraine attacks Russian warships, nuclear war if Ukraine fires missiles into Russia ... So really I think if West shot down Russian plane they would do nothing like every time before.
At the same time, the Western decision makers think (or behave as if they thought) that Russia is a country and not a mafia, and that they are not actually at (hybrid) war with us, and that they can be reasoned with and that keeping some kind of "civilized behavior" with Russia is something that makes sense. This is of course wrong - Russia only understands strength and considers humanity a weakness to be exploited - being civilized or nice only makes you hurt.
So no way it really was West - if West had balls to engage Russia directly, our current conversation topic on this forum would be "do you think the warlord Ivanov will also take south of Moscow?" and not "it's not good that Ukraine is losing ground and people because West decided to not supply them with enough ammo but what can you do, it could be worse".
...
Anyway, one thing I wanted to say: This actually is an existential war for Russia in a way. It is existential for Putin, sure, but as we came to understood during the war and as we discussed a few times, the common (but by no means only) mindset in common Russians is "things are ****, they used to get better and now they don't, but you know what, at least we are a badass empire". They might be even deluding themselves into thinking that things being bad is a voluntary sacrifice for that badass empire. Lot of people are willing to suffer a lot for being part of something they consider greater than themselves.
Being decisively shown that Russia is not in fact a cool badass empire they be proud of even if they don't themselves have indoor toilets might really break their worlds. Whatever comes out of that would not be Russia as we know it anymore. This is not existential war for Russia because they will end up in mass graves or enslaved if they lose (like it is for Ukrainians), but it is existential for the Russian imperial mindset.

It's only fair. The Ukrainian Navy is taking out the BSF, and the Russians want to take out one of the services too

Everyone has a serious shortage of that type of equipment, although Ukraine has that plus a serious need.

Chornobaivka - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Chornobaivka_attacks

See: hostomel airport
Edit: wait, not hostomel. What was that airport near Kherson that the Russians just *kept* deploying helos to?

FUBAR come close, although it's an acronym it is used as a word. Perhaps closer in meaning is a couplet - cluster f***, or Charlie Foxtrot if in polite company.

Hopefully they'll be sending live ones.

Hopefully they'll be sending live ones.

It's not slumbering.
It's swallowing fistsfull of pentobarbital, and washing them down with vodka.

That doesn't track with Russia's defensive success last year?

Hopefully they'll be sending live ones.

That doesn't track with Russia's defensive success last year?

Don't really see the point of the Patton quote posting. Far right people love to post another quote of his that "we fought the wrong enemy", implying that he would rather have allied with the nazis. Guy was a piece of work. In his own words, quoted in Peter Harts The Last Battle, during the American offensive in 1918, Patton thought he killed an American soldier who was shell  shocked, hitting him over the head. Somehow this anecdotal admission of possible manslaughter/murder has been completely forgotten despite the scandal in WW2 when Patton simply slapped a soldier.  This wasn't the only time Patton would inflict violence against soldiers of his own country who fought in the first war, he helped put down with force the Bonus Army that marched to DC to get the benefits they were owed. 
Patton was no hero and isn't worth celebrating.

Comparing immediate loss rates seems to matter in the sense of force generation rather than national will. Ukrainian loss rates are favorable but that could be devastating if they aren't generating new combat power. And vice versa. High Russian loss rates are obviously sustainable from a "total population" metric. But might not be in a force generation sense. It might also have negative impacts on future operations as they continue to chew through "experienced" troops and especially leaders. Overall I feel like we've lost track of force generation rates. So its hard to determine just how bad losses are for either force.


           When it comes to long term national sustainment I've been using 1% pre-war population as the marker for when manpower exhausting might become a reality. Just doing a quick look at major wars through the 20th century 1% isn't unusual.

Russia: 1,471,821
Total KIA estimates I can find are roughly 120 to 150k.
 
Ukraine: 414,426
Total KIA estimates I can find are roughly 70k to 100k
 
So roughly 2:1 KIA rates but again if 1% KIA is the "break point" for a major war both forces could sustain their current loss rates up into 2026 or possibly 2027. So I don't think the war is going to end because either force has been "killed out" in the sense that they've run out of manpower.



           I would also say it may be worthwhile to not circle round a single poster and beat them with opposing viewpoints. If 5 good posts aren't convincing 15 likely won't be either and it tends to clog up the discussion based on person's posts.
 

It's not slumbering.
It's swallowing fistsfull of pentobarbital, and washing them down with vodka.

Michael Clarke is a popular military expert who is often interviewed on TV.
If he squinted a bit, he might read the small letters on the image of the press conference, which was held in January 2023. The news he is commenting on is a year old.

easily said from the comfort of your couch here in the US.

Equipment loses, yes, but casualties are probably less lop-sided.
 

Hi from Argentina, as far as I can tell we no longer produce 155mm, just last year production of 105mm was reactivated after a decade or so and probably at a very low rate; there are a few articles discussing the possibility of producing 155mm again giving it´s high demand, but couldn't find anything about the actual feasibility of doing it.
On one hand given the profound economic crisis here I wouldn't bet much on our production capacity, on the other hand we currently have as much a pro US government as you can ask from Latin America, maybe there is a deal to be made.

I get a feeling that whatever territory is being taken by Russia at this stage of the war, will remain to russia for a long time. Kinda like northern Cyprus. I think Ukraine's military peak was at the summer offensive. Can't get better anymore imo. I think now the problem lies not in equipment but in manpower and collective will to continue the fight. 
It will be impossible for Ukraine to gather the mass needed to take back strongholds the way Russia does. Drone harrasment can of course continue infinitely.  I see no end to the attacks on the Black Sea fleet from Ukraine as well. Naval drones will probably continue to harass the russian ships. Unless they think of protective nettings and other measures, that would be a major headache. 
I think we might reach a point the best both sides could achieve would be a cease fire with probably Donbas and Crimea going to Russia. 
 

 

 

Lolwut? That doesn't sound right, surely?