Did piracy kill the commercial viability of CMx1?

[Lt Bull]

I was reading the interesting "The Wrong Left Turn and the Uncanny Valley" thread by MD and was facinated when the discussion started to veer on pages 6-8 towards potentially "saving" the CMx1 concept by making it open source etc and the viability of it all and BFC views on it etc.

It got me thinking, "what went wrong" especially when I took a closer look and considered the implications of this statment made by BFC:

Originally posted by Battlefront.com:

...As I've said many times over, CMBO sold the most, CMBB sold significantly less, CMAK sold even less than CMBB. You guys can have rose colored glasses about how great our past games are, but we can not. ...

Steve

If you go by what BTS is trying to tell us, the CMx1 game concept HAD to be abandodned, reinvented and made RT if there was ever a successor to the CMx1 series. The evidence from "ecomonic realities" of the CMx1 series seems to support and vindicate their case for doing so.

This statement for me is both counterintuitive and extremely vulnerable to mis-interpretation and faulty analysis. I think there is perhaps a more sinister resaon why this may be the economic/market reality BFC state.

As a matter of fact if you look at these figures purely through "rose coloured glasses" and apply basic marketing/economic principles/reasoning, you could quite well conclude/reason the following:

1)The market obviously liked and bought CMBO the most thus it became the most commercially successful CMx1 game produced.

2) Sales dropped significantly with each successive CMx1 release indicating that at least owners of the original game had lost interest in the CMx1 series or were put off or not impressed enough by any of the attempts at introducing numerous new engine enhancments and feature additions made to the game each time and so consequently purchased the game in fewer numbers.

POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS:

1) Market was saturated and satisfied with the intital CMx1 release of CMBO. Subsequent releases of CMBB and CMAK did not justify to either prospective new customers or owners of previous titles that they were worth buying or of any better value than CMBO.

2) BTS/BFC strayed from a winning formula. With each successive CMx1 release, BTS/BFC made changes to the game which made the product of less value and worth to their existing customers/prospective customers. They in effect killed their market by reducing the quality of the game with each succesive release of CMx1 making it less attractive for customers to buy than each preceeding release.

NOTE: Unlike the Total War Series or even the Madden football series, BTS/BFC do not know how to repackage the basic same game concept and make it more commerically succesful or at least commercially sustainable than previous releases. I guess they are not good at knowing what their market really want or knowing what a good thing is.

Can you see what I mean? Something isn't making sense here. This economic/market reasoning/rationale is totally justified if you look at it at face value. However, I do not for one minute believe that the gaming market is/was more interested in early CMx1 offerings (CMBO #1) than the later CMx1 offerings (CMBB, CMAK). There is something else going on here.

The thing I believe that might be the most important issue being overlooked here and resulting in a convincing case against CMx1 being "commercially viable" is ....software piracy! Being such a small independant game development company, I have always been concerend about their vulnerablility to the software piracy of their games. I believe with CMBO, they did the right thing. The game was exclusively available directly from BTS only. There was almost an unwritten undertanding between their loyal (niche!) customers and BTS that they would NEVER undermine the value of the game (and the economic rewards entitled to BTS) by either freely distributing the game to friends, let alone encouraging it's pirated distribution by whatever channels were available at the time. It certainly helped at the time that internet data transfer/volume costs and speeds were unlike how they are now, making downlaoding of even several hundred megabytes a chore, unlike how it is today in this broadband world when several gigabytes can be easily and effortlessly copied in a few minuutes.

But this relationship they had with their market was not one that they could count on indefinitely to keep them safe from the ecconimic pitfalls of software piracy on a small software company if they ever hoped of expanding their market and reaching out beyond the small niche one they had captured to a much bigger and diverese market.

I can't recall exactly when, but BFC eventually made the brave decision to also start distributing, marketing and selling CMx1 the way the "big boys" of the industry do: through third party retail outlets.

When they started doing this, they kind of lost control of their product and it's market value, though it certainly exposed CMx1 to a whole sector of the market that would probably have never heard of the game, let alone ever know or care about what BTS stood for (yes they did once have a mission statement) or how protective their traditional niche market was of the game. By this stage CMBO and the CMx1 concept had started to attract suprisingly fantastic accolades from both gamerd and the media. The latest CMx1 was certainly a game to check out!! But it was a double edged sword. The exposure had both the potential to make people take notice of the product and be interested in the game concept, while at the same time making the game appear to the general public as "just another PC game" that is probably worth a look but why spend the money they ask for it (after all, it looks kind of unproffessional and graphics are tacky looking, compared to other stuff on the shelf (from much BIGGER gaming companies)) when you can download it at home in 1/2 hr off Bittorent.

And I believe herein lies the demise of the CMx1 as seen by BFC as a commercially viable concept. CMBO/CMBB/CMAK almost became the IDEAL type of game to pirate. Relatively small file size for a game. Virtually no anti-piracy protection. Unlike many other games, a pirated version of the game was fully functional for multiplayer gameplay (unlike say most server based games that require registered unique "product keys" for online game play). Considering the game graphically looks tacky/unpolished/dated etc. unlike the "mass produced" junk on offer from the larger gaming developers, one might even feel justified not paying the unusually high $ for it and instead put it on the "find pirate version" list. But probably most importaat of all. IT WAS A FREAKN AWESOME GAME TO PLAY!!!!!!

So what I am suggesting is that perhaps BTS/BFC almost have themselves to blame for not "protecting their investment" and allowing CMx1 to become "just another game to pirate" whose market value subsequently saw it relegated to "baragain bin" status.

This is a crazy/extreme/melodramaitc analogy but I can't help but see it this way:

It is almost like they had this promising young little girl, who had so much potential, who was safe, loved and respected by everyone at home and the small local neighbourhood who knew her. They spent years instilling good wholesome values into her. Everyone believed she had something good to offer the world, they just had to see it. She was a little pimply and geeky in places but so are many awkward youngsters, especially those from a small town, and everyone was very protective of her. Still, everyone knew she would only become more beautiful with age, just give her the chance.

So the day came to let her go off to the "big bad world" of the big city to fend for herslef and find her fortune, competing with all the other pretty girls from all over the country, hoping she will find and earn the respect, trust and value she had back home.

But they did so without arming her with the knowledge or taking the proper precautions to protect her from and prevent her from being eaten up and taken advantage and used by the more unscruplulous elements that lurk in waiting in the hussle and bustle of the big smoke. There are lots of trips and traps in the cut throat world out there. People want to get something for nothing, and if you let them, they will. It was a mistake they would soon regret.

Several years later, and it's a sorry sight. That same fantastic, beautiful girl, that had (has) so much more to offer, now finds herself exploited on the street corner, selling herself for a few dollars, in the company of what you could only describe as human tragics and misfits. She looks uptown at where so many other girls, superficially beautiful, with little substance and without a fraction of what she could offer, go about their busy day dressed in the latest designer gear, gainfully employed by cut-throat organisations that really just want something good to look at and play with (after all, that is what they have all come to expect). Her hope of ever emulating and reganing the respect and value she once had back home in this new world has been forever lost. Everyone knows she sells herself cheap (you can even get her for free is you know who to ask). She is just another one of those stupid small town girls that niavely thoguht she was "special" and though she was "going to make it" in the big smoke, but she trusted the wrong people who told her how much she was worth, and now peddles the street for a few dollars. Now she is just another one of those tragic downtown whores trying to make a living. Such a waste.

The tragedy is this: How could they (BFC) have let this happen?

[ August 16, 2007, 03:18 AM: Message edited by: Lt Bull ]

[Sergei]

:confused:

[Molloy]

Wow...

[metalbrew]

Your analogy reminded me of:

"Mr. Madison, what you have just said, is the most insanely idiotic thing I have ever heard. At no point, in your rambling incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul."

I know what you're getting at though. The fact is, there's not a copy protection on the market that's effective. Huge gaming companies spend hundreds of thousands of dollars trying to prevent casual software pirates from "picking low hanging fruit" but regardless of how diligent BTS would've/could've/should've been piracy would still happen. Honest paying customers usually pay the price for copy protection measures by getting locked out of the game they paid to enjoy.

So did piracy hurt BTS? I can't say. I know that it is unavoidable though.

[ChrisND]

Who let you out of the CMC forum?

[Statisoris]

I like cheese ....

seriously though, I could see how CM games could become mostly a pirated titles, but most people I know wouldnt spend their time downloading it even if they could get it free. Its sad that people need flashing lights and super fantastic visuals to make them think they will like a game. I wish I could force CM on a bunch of PC gamers and then get their opinions after a month or so.

[ August 15, 2007, 11:39 PM: Message edited by: Statisoris ]

[Berlichtingen]

Originally posted by Lt Bull:

Can you see what I mean? Something isn't making sense here. This economic/market reasoning/rationale is totally justified if you look at it at face value. However, I do not for one minute believe that the gaming market is/was more interested in early CMx1 offerings (CMBO #1) than the later CMx1 offerings (CMBB, CMAK). There is something else going on here.

Actually, it makes perfect sense that CMBO sold the best.

First, remove the die hards. I'm willing to bet good money that the majority of people that bought CMBO never set foot in the forums. The die hards don't count, they bought all three.

From those that remain...

West Front 44-45 is the single most popular period for WW2 gamers (not for everyone, but the majority). Ok, axe those that couldn't care less about the East Front.

Most games have a relatively short play life. CMBB took to long coming out for some, so axe those players.

Along comes CMAK. Western Desert is even less popular than East Front. Axe the players that couldn't care less about war on a pool table.

Axe some more players that are tired of the game.

[Lt Bull]

Originally posted by metalbrew:

Your analogy reminded me of....

Haha, well if you don't have the imagination to see the parallels in the analogy, then I just hope you enjoyed the story. (maybe I shouldn't of been so abstract and just aimed for a 1:1 representation instead )

You can't see how a "hand made" product that took years to make like CMx1 can be/could be/was seen by BFC as "their baby"? I have even seen BFC use the phrase "it's like someone telling you your baby is ugly" in reference to how they handle critiscm.

Originally posted by metalbrew:

So did piracy hurt BTS? I can't say. I know that it is unavoidable though.

Absolutely unavoidable. But were BFC particularly vulnerable/too vulnerable to it?

[ August 15, 2007, 11:50 PM: Message edited by: Lt Bull ]

[Hertston]

Originally posted by Lt Bull:

And I believe herein lies the demise of the CMx1 as seen by BFC as a commercially viable concept. CMBO/CMBB/CMAK almost became the IDEAL type of game to pirate. Relatively small file size for a game. Virtually no anti-piracy protection. Unlike many other games, a pirated version of the game was fully functional for multiplayer gameplay (unlike say most server based games that require registered unique "product keys" for online game play). Considering the game graphically looks tacky/unpolished/dated etc. unlike the "mass produced" junk on offer from the larger gaming developers, one might even feel justified not paying the unusually high $ for it and instead put it on the "find pirate version" list. But probably most importaat of all. IT WAS A FREAKN AWESOME GAME TO PLAY!!!!!!

For the wargamer demographic, yes. For the illegal downloading crowd, I doubt more than a couple of per-cent kept any of them installed for more than ten minutes... and most of those would never have bought it if the piracy option hadn't existed.

Except with some of the really huge mainstream franchises sequels always sell less. That's particularly true when the engine and surface appearance are much the same as the original game. Those that bought the first one and decided they didn't like it, together with those who quite liked it but had no real desire for more of the same, usually outnumber the new guys by a long way.

[John Kettler]

Lt.Bull,

Believe you mean "unscrupulous," rather than as written. Otherwise, what's the girl got to worry about?

Regards,

John Kettler

[Lt Bull]

Originally posted by Hertston:

For the wargamer demographic, yes. For the illegal downloading crowd, I doubt more than a couple of per-cent kept any of them installed for more than ten minutes... and most of those would never have bought it if the piracy option hadn't existed.

I believe that the "less grog" more mainstream market that BFC are aiming for with CMSF is more the type of market that would be more likely to pursue the piracy option in order to play the game. This in effect represents much of the same "market" they are now pursuing which DID NOT BUY but most surely DID PLAY CMx1 at some stage.

Originally posted by Hertston:

Except with some of the really huge mainstream franchises sequels always sell less. That's particularly true when the engine and surface appearance are much the same as the original game. Those that bought the first one and decided they didn't like it, together with those who quite liked it but had no real desire for more of the same, usually outnumber the new guys by a long way.

I used the Madden and Total War franchises as an example. No sign of either of those titles going bust, even though they still both basically deliver the same gaming concept each time with a few enhancements here and there.

Didn't CMx1 do that?

So why did the CMx1 franchise go bust?

NOTE: You CAN NOT gernerally play either of those titles online without owning your own unique product ID code.

A interesting aside: I actually was discussing sports and gaming with a friend. I was saying how much I like American football then discussing the concept of WEGO vs RT play and it occurred to me that WEGO game play IS very much like the very concept behind coaching an NFL football team.

Both teams go in a huddle to discuss their next play with direction from the coach (the planning phase) then take to the field and both teams execute their respective plans. What happens in each play is like what happens when CMx1 calculates the turn and the movie unfolds. It's all "hands free" and too late to change orders, you have committed and you rely on the intelligence of the players (TacAI) to see you through any unforseen situations.

When the play is over you go back to your huddle and do it all again. (sound familiar?)

I can’t believe I never realised how similar it is to the concept of WEGO in CMx1. I must say that this concept of "prediction"/planning/ and strategy/tactics must really appeal to me, and probably to a lot of American football/Madden fans to a degree.

[imported_Major_Jerkov]

I doubt it. Though this game is another story...

[FAI]

CMx1 had virtually no anti-piracy protection, because there's virtually no effective anti-piracy protection available.

Trying to combat piracy with the current technology, is like equipping the entire Afrika Korps with Tigers to take Tobruk, only to find out that the Allied had issued a Javelin with ten extra rounds to every soldiers and cooks

[Lt Bull]

Originally posted by John Kettler:

Lt.Bull,

Believe you mean "unscrupulous," rather than as written. Otherwise, what's the girl got to worry about?

Regards,

John Kettler

You are quite correct. Ammendment has been made. I kind of post like BFC release games: lots of errors, bugs, mistakes but I do get around to finding and fixing them AFTER I release it, even if it means others first seeing how trashy my first effort can be

[Sergei]

Originally posted by FAI:

Trying to combat piracy with the current techonolgy, is like equipping the entire Afrika Korps with Tigers to take Tobruk, only to find out that the Allied had issued a Javelin with ten extra rounds to every soldiers and cooks

Gotta admit I like your analogy much better. I wonder if CMSF and CMx2:WW2 will be interlinkable? :cool:

[Lt Bull]

Originally posted by FAI:

CMx1 had virtually no anti-piracy protection, because there's virtually no effective anti-piracy protection available.

Trying to combat piracy with the current technology, is like equipping the entire Afrika Korps with Tigers to take Tobruk, only to find out that the Allied had issued a Javelin with ten extra rounds to every soldiers and cooks

So why do other game companies bother? Why do US car compaines bother with air bag protection for drivers when they know that if the driver is NOT wearing a seat belt (something many Americans don't do and even pride themsleves on not being legally enforced to do), the chance of the driver surviving an accident are drastically reduced any way? Should they just give up?

It's not really the point. Ignoring the problem, doing nothing and putting your head in the sand achieves nothing.

All things equal, smaller software companies like BFC hurt much more than larger ones with regards to software piracy.

[Bigduke6]

That may be, but I think the reasons CMBO sold so much better than CMBB and CMAK are fairly obvious:

1. The game concept was brand-new, ground-breaking, a huge amount of fun, contained a massive amount of really cool informatin, and miles better than anything else on the market. In other words, it was a Hell of a product, and there was zero competition.

2. The game covered NW Europe, the hands-down favorite of WW2 wargamers. CMBB and CMAK did not

Those two points right there probably are enough to blow the piracy theory out of the water.

But if you want to take things a bit further, it is reasonable to assume more computer WW2 wargamers are interested in a game covering the East Front than the North African desert, which would go a long way towards explaining why CMBB did better than CMAK.

And if you compare the massive effort BFI put into building OBs and offering players new and cool toys to play with, the substantial enhancements CMBB offered over CMBO as compared to the minor enhancments CMAK offered over CMBB,

and the less-detailed OBs and more limited toys available in CMAK as compared to CMBB, you have a lot of standard merchandising grounds for CMBB to do better than CMAK. More value in the product.

Once CMSF gets functional, it will be interesting to see how much value the market decides is in that game.

[Thomm]

Piracy did not kill CMAK for me, the homogeneous (unshaded!) pixel soup they called desert did!

Best regards,

Thomm

PS: Have to admit that I picked it up from a bargain bin much later.

[Lt Bull]

Originally posted by Bigduke6:

That may be, but I think the reasons CMBO sold so much better than CMBB and CMAK are fairly obvious:.

Your observations below, yes, are obvious. I do not however believe they obviously explain why each successive CMx1 release SOLD significantly less than the last.

Originally posted by Bigduke6:

1. The game concept was brand-new, ground-breaking, a huge amount of fun, contained a massive amount of really cool informatin, and miles better than anything else on the market. In other words, it was a Hell of a product, and there was zero competition.

Agree with this statement, and it only got better with each succesive release.

Originally posted by Bigduke6:

2. The game covered NW Europe, the hands-down favorite of WW2 wargamers. CMBB and CMAK did not.

Again, agree with this statement.

Originally posted by Bigduke6:

Those two points right there probably are enough to blow the piracy theory out of the water.

Totally disagree with how you use your two statements to explain CMx1 sales trends. So if BFC released CMAK first, CMBB second and CMBO last (but with graphics/game features in CMBO and CMAK reveresed), then would we instead be commenting at just how much of a BOOMING market the CMx1 franchise is?

Based on your reasoning as well, you must no doubt think that BFC have committed commercial suicide then by choosing a fantasy "USA in Syria" theme for CMSF if you think "theatre" interest is so important to selling CM.

Originally posted by Bigduke6:

But if you want to take things a bit further, it is reasonable to assume more computer WW2 wargamers are interested in a game covering the East Front than the North African desert, which would go a long way towards explaining why CMBB did better than CMAK.

Again agree with the observation (that WW2 gamers might be more intrested in EF than NA), but totally disgree with how you use these blanket observations to explain sales of CMx1.

I really have a hard time thinking what I am really missing out on if I were to buy CMAK over CMBO? I currently play most of my CMAK covering theatres which really are the domain of CMBO ie. NW Europe. For me CMAK is essentially also CMBO in thatre scope but with a few less exotic NW European units but with bonus desert and Mediteranean theatre OOBs and battle possibilities! How can it NOT be better than CMBO? I therefore fail to see how CMAK could be any less successful (desirable as a game a gamer woud want to own) than CMBB because:

a) appart from the title, it still essentially lets me play WF/NW Europe

Has heaps of new features that just make the gaming experience so much better.

Originally posted by Bigduke6:

And if you compare the massive effort BFI put into building OBs and offering players new and cool toys to play with, the substantial enhancements CMBB offered over CMBO as compared to the minor enhancments CMAK offered over CMBB,

and the less-detailed OBs and more limited toys available in CMAK as compared to CMBB, you have a lot of standard merchandising grounds for CMBB to do better than CMAK. More value in the product.

Yeah but this only applies to their core market that had already bought CMBO. Did the bulk of the potential market that seemed to have avoided buying CMAK do so on the grounds that they had already bought CMBO and felt that they weren't getting much more with CMAK? I doubt such a significant market "protest" ever took place.

EDIT: At least one poster in this thread has stuck their hand up for not buying CMAK out of "protest". Most intersting.

As far as the market which never heard of or bought CMBO (a market I know BFC was keen to tap), would THEY have instead bought CMBO instead of CMAK simply becasue the title suggested that CMBO was NW Europe exclusively? I can't really see why they would.

EDIT: Was it the demo?

Originally posted by Bigduke6:

Once CMSF gets functional, it will be interesting to see how much value the market decides is in that game.

Indeed.

[ August 16, 2007, 04:01 AM: Message edited by: Lt Bull ]

[Sergei]

Bull, do you have any kind of expertise about the sales trends in computer games market, or are you just pulling stuff out of your pants? It would seem to me like the latter.

[thelmia]

Look to torrent CMAK. It's easy. Cracked versions everywhere. It's hard to compete with free.

There's a torrent of CMSF already.

[Lt Bull]

Originally posted by Rollstoy:

Piracy did not kill CMAK for me, the homogeneous (unshaded!) pixel soup they called desert did!

No one is forcing you to play desert battle with CMAK. Maybe you just haven't looked hard enough for the fanatstic NW Europe CMAK scenarios lovingly created by our great scenario design community or used the indispensible high contast terrain mods combined with grid overlays that make prevously homogeneous (unshaded!) pixel soups look like 3D landscapes you can read.

Originally posted by Rollstoy:

PS: Have to admit that I picked it up from a bargain bin much later.

Great for you. A shame for BFC and the CMx1 franchise. It should never have got to that.

I really am curious to hear from people like yourself that seem to have bought CMBO/CMBB but waited for CMAK to go to the bargain bins beofre buying it. I just don't understand it. Was this some kind of protest?

[ August 16, 2007, 03:22 AM: Message edited by: Lt Bull ]

[Thomm]

Originally posted by Lt Bull:

I really am curious to hear from people like yourself that seem to have bought CMBO/CMBB but waited for CMAK to go to the bargain bins beofre buying it. I just don't understand it. Was this some kind of protest?

Yes, it was a protest, because for me the game was unplayable without grid mods, and I did not agree with releasing the game like that. I was so pissed when I found out about that game-deciding ravine in the demo midway through the game, because I stumbled into it on level 1 accidentially.

I did not wait for it to go to the bargain bins, by the way. I just stumbled across it accidentially.

Best regards,

Thomm

[Sirocco]

I feel a significant factor in reduced sales for CMBB and CMAK was simply the subject matter and how it was marketed.

Barbarossa to Berlin? What are the first names that come to mind when thinking of the Eastern Front? Stalingrad and Kursk. You capitalise on what is already known.

Afrika Korps? Call it The Big Red One and have a picture of a GI coming ashore in North Africa on the cover.

With a better pitch I'm sure both those games could have sold significantly more copies.

[Lt Bull]

Originally posted by Sergei:

Bull, do you have any kind of expertise about the sales trends in computer games market, or are you just pulling stuff out of your pants? It would seem to me like the latter.

Sergei, do you (or anyone else) really need me to answer that for you in order for you to decide whether you should be taking what I am saying seriously or are you implying your own expertise in sales trends in computer games markets tells you that I am talking sh#t? If so, please do enlighten us (or anyone else who wishes to do so) with your own expertise on this topic and point out the error of my ways and line of thought, as I have yet to see how you have even contributed anything of value/worth to this discussion. :confused:

[ August 16, 2007, 03:06 AM: Message edited by: Lt Bull ]