How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

16 minutes ago, Silentkilarz said:

So are these ammo dump explosions a result of Russian incompetence or UKR luck? Mass wave of drones to overwhelm AA? 

Por que no los dos?

[Silentkilarz]

2 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Por que no los dos?

El burro es más inteligente que el ruso 

[LongLeftFlank]

24 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

Straight to the chase? American boots on the ground....

Crazy enough for yaz?

 

Hey, 'crazy' hasn't come from me. Not yet.

...And this *is* a CMBS subforum, after all.

So, 'boots on the ground' is, what? First Marine Division? Black Horse, as shown on Lukashenko's briefinng map, wayyyy back when?

(82nd tends to be held back as a QRF)

Edited 10 hours ago by LongLeftFlank

[chrisl]

Something crossed my mind after writing the reply about the ammo dumps possibly having explody stuff moving in faster than it moves out.  That's probably telling us something else, too.

Explody stuff (and big explody stuff, not just boxes of bullets) is accumulating in the near-ish the theater ammo dumps and it's not making it to the lines.  That seems to suggest that either Russia has a logistical problem if it's not getting that stuff to where it should get used, or it doesn't have enough delivery systems to get the big explody stuff to where it will do something besides be visible from the next planet over when it blows up.  Are they accumulating a lot of artillery shells that aren't getting fired for lack of tubes?  Rockets without launchers?  Kilotons of explosive stuff in reserve and they have to send in meat assaults seems like a major disconnect in operations.

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hey, 'crazy' hasn't come from me. Not yet.

...And this *is* a CMBS subforum, after all.

So, 'boots on the ground' is, what? First Marine Division? Black Horse, as shown on Lukashenko's briefinng map, wayyyy back when?

(82nd tends to be held back as a QRF)

Our boy thinks we are courting nuclear war but also thinks winning would be sending in the US Army. If it isn't crazy, it's ill informed nonsense and if it's not ill informed nonsense it's JV agit prop. 

[Silentkilarz]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Explody stuff (and big explody stuff, not just boxes of bullets) is accumulating in the near-ish the theater ammo dumps and it's not making it to the lines.  That seems to suggest that either Russia has a logistical problem if it's not getting that stuff to where it should get used, or it doesn't have enough delivery systems to get the big explody stuff to where it will do something besides be visible from the next planet over when it blows up.  Are they accumulating a lot of artillery shells that aren't getting fired for lack of tubes?  Rockets without launchers?  Kilotons of explosive stuff in reserve and they have to send in meat assaults seems like a major disconnect in operations.

On 9/20/2024 at 12:20 PM, The_MonkeyKing said:

long term loss ratios continue to be surprisingly stable:
https://github.com/leedrake5/Russia-Ukraine (Oryz data overtime)

 

UKR seems to be hitting Logistics heavily according to this graph that was posted a few pages back. Covert Cabal also had a video just recently about towed arty reserves being close to critical.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

Our boy thinks we are courting nuclear war but also thinks winning would be sending in the US Army. If it isn't crazy, it's ill informed nonsense and if it's not ill informed nonsense it's JV agit prop. 

 

'Hraka one end, memes the other'

- (apologies to Richard Adams)

[billbindc]

Just now, Silentkilarz said:

UKR seems to be hitting Logistics heavily according to this graph that was posted a few pages back. Covert Cabal also had a video just recently about towed arty reserves being close to critical.

But also notable that something like 24% of Russia's yearly munitions production has been exploded in the last week or so. Russia is going to be hurting for both the trucks and the ammo if this keeps up.

[Silentkilarz]

1 minute ago, billbindc said:

But also notable that something like 24% of Russia's yearly munitions production has been exploded in the last week or so. Russia is going to be hurting for both the trucks and the ammo if this keeps up.

Exactly why I wanted to discuss this with those more familiar with the topic. Possible this has a greater effect on the Donbass push than the Kursk Liberation front?

[CHARLIE43]

3 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Hey, 'crazy' hasn't come from me. Not yet.

...And this *is* a CMBS subforum, after all.

So, 'boots on the ground' is, what? First Marine Division? Black Horse, as shown on Lukashenko's briefinng map, wayyyy back when?

(82nd tends to be held back as a QRF)

Meh, let the guy with spit balls all over his clock figure that stuff out. I'm just here for all the videos that give me ideas for new scenarios. And right now, the only way to get that western tech into the Ukrainian side semi-realistically is to pretend the crews got their kit from the U.S., right down to the rank. Couldn't even get that off before they sent it!

Now about those Leo's, Marders, etc? What a shame. They're right next to the CMBS folder but so out of reach. Bummer.

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Silentkilarz said:

Exactly why I wanted to discuss this with those more familiar with the topic. Possible this has a greater effect on the Donbass push than the Kursk Liberation front?

To figure it out we would need to know something about what total Russian stockpiles look like and what the mix looks like. Then, of course, what was destroyed and where. I would imagine the timing and location of each strike was designed to achieve the most friction possible for Russian forces and provided Russian logistics are as rail dependent, corrupt and brittle as seems obvious, that friction will be considerable. The three big depot attacks are also only part of the story. 

[sburke]

53 minutes ago, Silentkilarz said:

So are these ammo dump explosions a result of Russian incompetence or UKR luck? Mass wave of drones to overwhelm AA? 

2 things.  

1.  Back a few hundred posts I found an item about Ukraine hacking the Russian train system (where all the scheduling and routing info was)

2.  Russian has never modernized logistics.  We all saw plenty of pics of the manual labor they utilize for moving ammo and lack of pallets etc.

So we may have 2 issues that combined created an opportunity for the UA.  The first is Russian labor isn't necessarily lazy, but the logistical arm is pretty disorganized.  This likely leads to a messy and slow process when a mass delivery arrives.  Meanwhile the UA might very well have been monitoring for these train deliveries.  In short they found a weakness they could exploit and it was just a matter of picking the right opportunity.  They didn't even need to have any recon monitoring the actual site to give away their intentions if they knew when the train was scheduled to arrive (assuming that was actually the case.  I haven't actually seen a post to confirm the bit about the train, but it was brought up in one of the posts on this.  Maybe just rumor?)

 

[LongLeftFlank]

15 minutes ago, CHARLIE43 said:

Meh, let the guy with spit balls all over his clock figure that stuff out. I'm just here for all the videos that give me ideas for new scenarios. And right now, the only way to get that western tech into the Ukrainian side semi-realistically is to pretend the crews got their kit from the U.S., right down to the rank. Couldn't even get that off before they sent it!

Now about those Leo's, Marders, etc? What a shame. They're right next to the CMBS folder but so out of reach. Bummer.

Got it, fair enough.

As for US 'boots on the ground', they're pretty much already there in the most useful  capacity. For some definition of 'boots'.

But as has been noted elsewhere, BFC isn't going to do a CMBS update.

...If you must scratch that itch, modding CMSF might be more fruitful (in spite of dated ATGM, lack of drones, etc.).

[FancyCat]

33 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Something crossed my mind after writing the reply about the ammo dumps possibly having explody stuff moving in faster than it moves out.  That's probably telling us something else, too.

Explody stuff (and big explody stuff, not just boxes of bullets) is accumulating in the near-ish the theater ammo dumps and it's not making it to the lines.  That seems to suggest that either Russia has a logistical problem if it's not getting that stuff to where it should get used, or it doesn't have enough delivery systems to get the big explody stuff to where it will do something besides be visible from the next planet over when it blows up.  Are they accumulating a lot of artillery shells that aren't getting fired for lack of tubes?  Rockets without launchers?  Kilotons of explosive stuff in reserve and they have to send in meat assaults seems like a major disconnect in operations.

Aren't these locations more than simply ammo dumps for the theater (The GRAUs at least) ? They are cold war old, created for the express purpose of the great cookup between NATO vs USSR. Would be normal for them to have piles and piles of ammo no? 

You know whats really interesting? 719th in Tikhoretsk and 23rd GRAU in Toropets so not only did Ukraine hit 2 ammo dumps on the same night, they did so with bases 800 miles away from each other. Assuming the reports that the attacks involve a hundred drones at least (i saw it mentioned somewhere), that means Ukraine has the ability to launch 200+ drones in two directions and command and control them to their targets, sounds pretty significant to me. (i dunno if they just get programmed to travel and then launched with no ability to change course once launched or not) 

 

Edited 9 hours ago by FancyCat

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

 

But as has been noted elsewhere, BFC isn't going to do a CMBS update.

...If you must scratch that itch, modding CMSF might be more fruitful (in spite of dated ATGM, lack of drones, etc.).

THAT is classic.  FU LLF, I gotta clean the darn monitor again!

Edited 9 hours ago by sburke

[Eug85]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Of course he did. Based on your interactions so far I am not ready to believe anything you are saying. I am starting to buy into sburkes theory though. IO is an interesting game if you read into it. I met some people who worked in that business back in the day.

Your play appears to be “disrupt, discredit and degrade”. You attack the purpose of the thread, the community and content. It plays out like a troll drive by but you are trying to plant seeds of doubt in any other lurkers or new observers. Further, you are trying to get an overreaction from us and eventually admin to show everyone just what a closed community we are building here. You are pretty weak at this and not all that sophisticated but it is your most likely play.

At the same time, while you are playing “hey everyone look here!” The other guy backs off and starts to look more reasonable by comparison. He is still selling pro-Russian talking points in the background. The trigger was likely getting caught out on the whole Google Translate thing. Suddenly we are not talking about that anymore because you showed up and pulled a frontal.

You already have a few long time members engaged, so you likely think you are getting somewhere. But we are 1) bored and 2) kind of a sick bunch. You are being batted around like an interesting mouse in a room full of cats. We know the broom stick is on the way but all want to fill the void where our souls used to be. 

Or maybe this is not a play and just two random who showed up on the same day. In the end it won’t really matter.

This spy paranoia is starting to make me laugh. One guy came up with some stupid theory about Google Translate algorithms and pretends to be a professional linguist. The second guy builds spy theories based on the features of the profile name and the date of registration on the forum. One thing is for sure, everything is an equinox and the peculiarities of psychology

[LongLeftFlank]

2 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

This spy paranoia is starting to make me laugh.

 

Think of it as a cry for help.

"And I didn't become Captain simply to become a taxi service for a bunch of degenerate freeloaders."

[Later] "That was easy, says Man, who then goes on to prove that black is white and is promptly killed on the next zebra crossing."

(- Apologies to the other Adams)

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

The second guy builds spy theories based on the features of the profile name and the date of registration on the forum.

well I said it was a suspicion.

1- naming convention- (granted a reach)

2- date of joining- in and of itself nothing but an interesting coincidence

3- behavior on forum

so far one of you scoffed at the naming convention, but nothing else. you scoffed at naming and date.

Behavior however was always the trigger.  It was the only reason to look at any other correlation.  So far the behavior if anything has gotten worse.  Jury is still out, but I haven't seen anything yet to allay my suspicions, so I'll withhold my mea culpa for now.

[MikeyD]

We all lived through the 2016 election cycle. We all know that Russian disinformation agents are a real thing, though admittedly most of them are likely sunflower fertilizer now.

[Eug85]

7 minutes ago, sburke said:

well I said it was a suspicion.

1- naming convention- (granted a reach)

2- date of joining- in and of itself nothing but an interesting coincidence

3- behavior on forum

so far one of you scoffed at the naming convention, but nothing else. you scoffed at naming and date.

Behavior however was always the trigger.  It was the only reason to look at any other correlation.  So far the behavior if anything has gotten worse.  Jury is still out, but I haven't seen anything yet to allay my suspicions, so I'll withhold my mea culpa for now.

You are making progress in your theory. Continue.)))

Edited 9 hours ago by Eug85

[Eug85]

16 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Think of it as a cry for help.

"And I didn't become Captain simply to become a taxi service for a bunch of degenerate freeloaders."

[Later] "That was easy, says Man, who then goes on to prove that black is white and is promptly killed on the next zebra crossing."

(- Apologies to the other Adams)

Sorry buddy, I don't understand this humor.

[LongLeftFlank]

4 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

Sorry buddy, I don't understand this humor.

 

Better?

(we meme to all kinds in here)

[Silentkilarz]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

2 things.  

1.  Back a few hundred posts I found an item about Ukraine hacking the Russian train system (where all the scheduling and routing info was)

2.  Russian has never modernized logistics.  We all saw plenty of pics of the manual labor they utilize for moving ammo and lack of pallets etc.

So we may have 2 issues that combined created an opportunity for the UA.  The first is Russian labor isn't necessarily lazy, but the logistical arm is pretty disorganized.  This likely leads to a messy and slow process when a mass delivery arrives.  Meanwhile the UA might very well have been monitoring for these train deliveries.  In short they found a weakness they could exploit and it was just a matter of picking the right opportunity.  They didn't even need to have any recon monitoring the actual site to give away their intentions if they knew when the train was scheduled to arrive (assuming that was actually the case.  I haven't actually seen a post to confirm the bit about the train, but it was brought up in one of the posts on this.  Maybe just rumor?)

 

Ahh, I must have missed that post waded through the quagmire lately. Their Logi is terrible compared to Western forces as they are still handloading Grad rockets into the launchers from what I've seen, along with ammo crates, ammo storage and even their MRE's.

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

To figure it out we would need to know something about what total Russian stockpiles look like and what the mix looks like. Then, of course, what was destroyed and where. I would imagine the timing and location of each strike was designed to achieve the most friction possible for Russian forces and provided Russian logistics are as rail dependent, corrupt and brittle as seems obvious, that friction will be considerable. The three big depot attacks are also only part of the story. 

Well its seems to be competing with the tanks on orbital launching capabilities. Im sure Russia will post BDA's for UKR like they always do lol.

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Better?

(we meme to all kinds in here)

childless cat man?  Damn Vance was wrong, it wasn't the cat ladies after all!

[Eug85]

7 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Better?

(we meme to all kinds in here)

Unfortunately, Google Translate can't translate videos. So I have no idea what these people are talking about in the video.