How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

Quote

Russian channels report that Ukrainian forces destroyed the third and final pre-war bridge over the Seym River at Karyzh, Kursk Oblast.

Russian forces south of the river now only have one pontoon bridge left.

https://t.me/romanov_92/45053

h/t @AndrewPerpetua for the base map

 

[kimbosbread]

4 hours ago, omae2 said:

Sooner or later they will come with terms of how ****ed up what putin did. And that's the point. For that Ukraine have to push boundaries, its like in 4th generation warfare where the weaker side its trying to undermine the authority of the stronger. To crash the feeling that things are normal, that the state is well functioning, that the leadership is doing a great job. If Ukraine able to push russia into a declaration of war that will be proof of the leadership mistake.

One of my favorite political philosophers in the last century besides Douglas Adams conceptuallizes a state in terms of pillars: Intelligence, Law Enforcement, Armed Forces, Governance, The Economy, The Populace, and Perception.

An opponent or insurgent seeks to weaken or topple these pillars… in Ukraine’s case, economy and perception are the must vulnerable.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

 

This is good news, of course, but we saw how good Russia was at squeezing JUST ENOUGH over a river obstacle to keep the forces on the other side in the fight.  And the Dnepr is way more of a water obstacle than Seym.  Still, all bets are off on any of the conscript units south of the river.  They're going to call home to mom when they don't get food.

Steve

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is good news, of course, but we saw how good Russia was at squeezing JUST ENOUGH over a river obstacle to keep the forces on the other side in the fight.  And the Dnepr is way more of a water obstacle than Seym.  Still, all bets are off on any of the conscript units south of the river.  They're going to call home to mom when they don't get food.

Steve

The Ukrainians were not dropping the occasional JDAM then.

[Beleg85]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

All true, but we have to keep in mind some of the bigger picture.

First, we have discussed endless times that Russia will collapse sooner rather than later.  It's inevitable.  The form of that collapse, however, is not.  There are many very realistic scenarios.

Second, we have also discussed that no one thing on its own is going to push Russia over the edge.  The regime is too good at keeping the people inline and the people are too good at being kept in line.

Third, the military situation for Russia is dismal and it is getting worse instead of better.  Permanently worse because it's chewed up most of its Soviet stockpiles and is ever increasingly having difficulty finding replacement soldiers, which in turn means each new soldier is more expensive than the last one, and that in turn means more strain on the economy to support whatever new recruits it secures.

None of us know what the "final straw" will be, but most of us here (safe to say) and a lot of the good annalists think that mobilization is that straw.  Perhaps not the day it is announced, but that another mobilization will exhaust most of the regimes remaining options for keeping the war going and/or keeping Russia from collapsing.  Kinda like a self inflicted gunshot wound to the head MIGHT not kill the person straight away, but dying after 10 emergency surgeries or being a living vegetable can be traced back to the gunshot wound.  That's what I think is most likely here.  Mobilization won't collapse Russia overnight, but historians will later be able to point to that as being the singular reason for Russia's ultimate demise.

Steve

State of war does not automatically mean mobilization; it's still an option. Even if announced, it can be limited to most basic needs at the front while keeping potentiall pool of fast-replenishable "Meatforce" at hand. Again, it depends how they would play it. I would see potentiall for destabilization not in sole fact of mobilizing, but if they would somehow run out of money to pay for it.

Btw. Syrsky before Kursk himself admitted that Russia will increase her contingent in Ukraine to 690 000 by end of the year in normal way, without mobilization additional troops. That is why Kursk is such a gamble; it depends on Kremlin taking the bait and acting in panic mode, pulling away substantial reinforcements from other fronts. Until now, if we pass on social media histeria, they do not seem to overreact. It's open question if it's cold-hearted strategy or innative passivity and nachuism of current Russian population (and its military forces), but for now effect of Kursk offensive is likely smaller than we would like it here.

[dan/california]

[Beleg85]

Not something groundbreaking for viewers here, but worht to check nonetheless:

 

[The_Capt]

Something happening down south?
 

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/ukrainian-officials-issue-an-evacuation-order-for-families-with-children-from-the-city-of-pokrovsk-1.7005530

[Letter from Prague]

I wonder if the Russian response is simply going to be to ignore Kursk and keep grinding in Ukraine.

Ukraine will eventually run out of how far can they get with their supply lines and stop. No need to commit actual sizable forces.

[The_Capt]

Good summary at ISW:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/assessing-significance-current-russian-and-ukrainian-operations-course-war

Of course it all boils down to “Russia does positional warfare, Ukraine should do manoeuvre”…how the UA are supposed to pull off manoeuvre on anything besides a largely undefended border sector is still not clear.

My working theory based on Fall ‘22 was - erode, corrode, collapse. But the RA has adopted a very low energy state defence so this does not appear to work offensively. Operational collapses appear to require more precision firepower than Ukraine has in order to engineer.

What is left is - suppress, sanitize, breach, breakout - but we really have not seen this work in a defended sector.  The “sanitize” part is the bitch of the bunch as the attacking force has to pretty much create a box of ISR darkness for the opponent and neutralize everything for kms.  Again the firepower requirements are very high and will likely take an intense offensive swarm no one has been able to generate.

Or we are living in a Defensive primacy age and whatever it will take to reestablish the offensive simply has not been created yet.

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, Letter from Prague said:

I wonder if the Russian response is simply going to be to ignore Kursk and keep grinding in Ukraine.

Ukraine will eventually run out of how far can they get with their supply lines and stop. No need to commit actual sizable forces.

Gotta admit, that would be the smart play.  But Putin must have a serious lock down on that country or Russians really give zero “Fs” for them to tolerate a foreign invasion/occupation for the weeks/months this will take.

[hcrof]

It seems that the Russians have finally managed to pull enough reserves in to largely stop the offensive. To me then the question is do the Ukrainians have the remaining combat power to finally squeeze out the Russians from behind that river (probably eventually) and if the juice is worth that squeeze. Every new day of delay will only make it more difficult however - conscripts may be terrible but stick them in a trench with a rifle in their hands and artillery support and they become difficult to dislodge. 

I am concerned that politics will try to keep this offensive going longer than it should (as per last summer) and the Ukrainians will end up taking unnecessary losses, but hopefully I am proved wrong.

 

[Beleg85]

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Gotta admit, that would be the smart play.  But Putin must have a serious lock down on that country or Russians really give zero “Fs” for them to tolerate a foreign invasion/occupation for the weeks/months this will take.

Unfortunately, it's mainly the latter, though it heavily depends on the former. It did, is, and will come back to us like mantra: Passivity and fatalism are ultimate resources in Putin's Russia.

A pitty Ukrainians couldn't encrouch Kursk aglomeration. Several recon vehicles could cause substantial panic there. As of now, main effect for other fronts seem to be withdrawal of muscovite KAB-wielding airframes  and slight decrease of daily attacks. Clearly Kremlin keeps their priorities straight, I'll give them that.

[LongLeftFlank]

9 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

I maintain Ukraine wins by destroying Russian energy infrastructure- oil refineries, storage, substations, etc. Obviously rain infrastructure, especially locomotives is good too.

It’s not sexy, it’s not macho, and the military doesn’t want to just dig in and lob drones over the border and wait… but it would work.

A Drunken Evening, a Rented Yacht: The Real Story of the Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage (WSJ)

 

[alison]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Gotta admit, that would be the smart play.  But Putin must have a serious lock down on that country or Russians really give zero “Fs” for them to tolerate a foreign invasion/occupation for the weeks/months this will take.

I mean, we literally watched a rebel mercenary crew move in on a local army base, driving tanks and brandishing AKs on the city streets, and the civilians just continued about their day, pausing only to take a few selfies. That event made it pretty clear how little the average Russian citizen cares about what's going on in the political sphere.

[FancyCat]

Quote

To understand the size of the Proletarsk state reserve fuel facility, here is the satellite photo. Back of the envelope calculation is that it holds up to $200 million worth of fuel, based on the Russian domestic wholesale price of about $500 per ton of diesel. Each of these reservoirs is 5,000 tons.

It’s been three days since Ukrainian drones hit the diesel storage tanks of the Russian State Reserve in Proletarsk, Rostov region, and the fire is still spreading.

 

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Gotta admit, that would be the smart play.  But Putin must have a serious lock down on that country or Russians really give zero “Fs” for them to tolerate a foreign invasion/occupation for the weeks/months this will take.

One major advantage of Kursk is it’s much easier to push sabotage teams over the border/grey zone. The longer you can do that, the more Russian infrastructure you can take out.

[Kraft]

46 minutes ago, alison said:

I mean, we literally watched a rebel mercenary crew move in on a local army base, driving tanks and brandishing AKs on the city streets, and the civilians just continued about their day, pausing only to take a few selfies. That event made it pretty clear how little the average Russian citizen cares about what's going on in the political sphere.

Even the rebel leader was like, whatever, halfway through then the rebel leader was assasinated publicly and his followers were like, whatever.

He was also recently spotted in disguise again

Edited August 19 by Kraft

[Kraft]

On the topic of offensive uncomfortable memes and war crimes

Rusich group, which beheaded live ZSU soldier on video, the usual PoW executions, collect human ears and other such human things

is now asking officially other units for Ukrainian PoWs for a pagan human sacrifice ritual.

--

The Telegram reactions of ordinary russians:

Edited August 19 by Kraft

[Jiggathebauce]

56 minutes ago, Kraft said:

On the topic of offensive uncomfortable memes and war crimes

Rusisch group, which beheaded live ZSU soldier on video, the usual PoW executions, collect human ears and other such human things

is now asking officially other units for Ukrainian PoWs for a pagan human sacrifice.

How Traditional orthodox Christian values, of them

[Carolus]

58 minutes ago, Kraft said:

On the topic of offensive uncomfortable memes and war crimes

Rusisch group, which beheaded live ZSU soldier on video, the usual PoW executions, collect human ears and other such human things

is now asking officially other units for Ukrainian PoWs for a pagan human sacrifice.

Wow, sounds like a good opportunity for the UN to do nothing and Western nations to reduce military aid.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, alison said:

I mean, we literally watched a rebel mercenary crew move in on a local army base, driving tanks and brandishing AKs on the city streets, and the civilians just continued about their day, pausing only to take a few selfies. That event made it pretty clear how little the average Russian citizen cares about what's going on in the political sphere.

This is the Russian Paradox - a society that appear not to give a flying f@ck but can endure a grinding war that will likely come up on 1M casualties (that is and around 4-5x Vietnam for the US), a damaged economy and now, foreign troops on their soil.

If they ever really started to care this thing could get ugly.

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is the Russian Paradox - a society that appear not to give a flying f@ck but can endure a grinding war that will likely come up on 1M casualties (that is and around 4-5x Vietnam for the US), a damaged economy and now, foreign troops on their soil.

If they ever really started to care this thing could get ugly.

Another part of the paradox is how Russians can so emotionally and honestly say how much they care about Russian greatness, but then completely not care when its greatness is thrown into question.  Huge amount of denial going on within the mindset of the average Russian. 

"Our land is everything to us!  We will defend every inch of our soil to our last breath!  Well, except the soil that a weaker nation just rolled in and occupied"

Steve

[Beleg85]

Small but interesting cameo about early phase of Ukrainian offensive. Autotranslated from pl, but herd of goats discovering dummy muscovite minefield for AFU was too good not to mention here:

https://x.com/CzarneNieboNEWS/status/1825222512357048523

Leaked recording of a conversation between the chairman of the village council of Goncharivka (Kursk region), Alexander Garkavenko In short (although the text does not fully convey the emotions):

For two days we were transmitting very pleasant, optimistic news to Moscow. During this time we were losing significant territory.

I am a local, but I do not know the area as well as [the Armed Forces of Ukraine]. Someone explained that [the Armed Forces of Ukraine] have been surveying the area with drones for the past two months. Damn, how efficiently they move — in forests, on dirt roads!

All the civilians who survived this talk about treason. But in my opinion, this is pure corruption-based sloppiness.

Literally two weeks ago I had a fight with a colonel, the commander of the border area of the Sudzhansky district. People turned to me: help me open a bypass road through Kurilovka so that ambulances and fire departments can get there. But the military wouldn't let me fill up the anti-tank ditch. I went to the district chief, this colonel was in the office. There was almost a fight. I said, we, the people of Kurilovka, feed your conscripts. He said, these are your whims — the Ministry of Defense feeds the conscripts. I said, you're a pig, for two and a half years civilians have been feeding people in the trenches. He said, if I fill up the anti-tank ditch, tomorrow the tanks from Ukraine will pass, how will I stop them? And after two weeks the tanks passed along this damn road!

There are signs "mines", but there are no mines there. Two months ago we had a fire. I came across a sign "mines". I called the district, I said, there is a sign "mines" here, should we continue to put out the fire? They said, yes. Then I realized it was a fake. There were no mines there.

Someone also [placed] sheep there. So people can't open the road, but someone from the Ministry of Defense allowed the sheep to graze there?

I was shocked when [the conscripts] were swimming across the river with civilians, we met them in Plechów. They had two magazines. I asked: boy, is that all that's left? He replied: no, that's all we had.

[The conscripts] had no communication. As soon as everything started at night, they were told: don't worry, hold out for a day and everything will be fine. We evacuated them on the third day - they were wandering around the forest, they came across us...

We had no information and no orders. On August 6 at 12:00 there was an operational meeting in the district administration — not a word about the evacuation. Not a word! It's just that, as usual, the artillery fire will pass soon and everything will be fine.

When I saw the evacuation of documents from the FSB and the police, I understood the seriousness of the situation, that it was uncontrolled.

No authorities were functioning in Sudzha, everyone was in Bolshom Soldatskom. But what struck me: I turn on the TV in the evening to see what was happening — our [acting governor] Smirnov reports that everything is fine, everything is under control.

Today we are coming to Plekhov — tomorrow the Ukrainians are already there. We are coming to Ulanka — tomorrow they are already there. We are coming to Vorobyov — tomorrow they are already there.

I had a fight with the mayor. I say, why, being in the Bolshosoldatsky district, are you giving interviews that Sudzha is peaceful? Channel One caught you doing it! Do you understand how it is? You know that it is different, you have to tell the truth!

There are 14 bodies of soldiers lying at the gas station in Konopelka. It is 2 km from Konopelka to Sudzha, and we cannot take the bodies, because everything is under Ukrainian control. Everything is peaceful, but we cannot even drive 2 km!

The head of the district customer service office calls the head of the Belovsky district, Volobuyev. He says, how can we help? He says: look what is happening on social media, that they are criticizing the district authorities, that they are not coping, start posting other information, praise us. I was shocked! I said, how is that? And he says: post yours! As if not everyone is complaining, but they are also happy! Dilute the negative!

In the towns, "Grads" were used. Right in the middle of the street, "Grad" would stand and shoot, do you understand? And I saw it with my own eyes.

We have a very negative attitude towards the entire local and district government. And why? Because people filed collective complaints a month before all this, they saw it from the inside, that something was coming.

Edited August 19 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

State of war does not automatically mean mobilization; it's still an option. Even if announced, it can be limited to most basic needs at the front while keeping potentiall pool of fast-replenishable "Meatforce" at hand. Again, it depends how they would play it. I would see potentiall for destabilization not in sole fact of mobilizing, but if they would somehow run out of money to pay for it.

Yes, that's my point.  Mobilization might not cause an immediate and apparent 1:1 counter reaction from the populace that winds up collapsing the government.  However, historians will likely be able to point to mobilization for pushing Russia into collapse.  A possible example is funding the mobilization "breaking the bank", like you laid out.  Or a fairly small set of protests in various cities that morph into larger ones (as happened in Ukraine and Belarus, not to mention the Arab Spring).  It will be mostly hindsight that tells us what's what.

8 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Btw. Syrsky before Kursk himself admitted that Russia will increase her contingent in Ukraine to 690 000 by end of the year in normal way, without mobilization additional troops. That is why Kursk is such a gamble; it depends on Kremlin taking the bait and acting in panic mode, pulling away substantial reinforcements from other fronts. Until now, if we pass on social media histeria, they do not seem to overreact. It's open question if it's cold-hearted strategy or innative passivity and nachuism of current Russian population (and its military forces), but for now effect of Kursk offensive is likely smaller than we would like it here.

Oh, I do not doubt for a second that if Russia had the resources readily available to knock Ukraine out of Kursk it would have done so by now.  Which gets me back to my previous post that Russia has to make choices and none of those choices come without a major consequence to how Russia's been prosecuting this war so far.

On the topic of Russian military expansion, I don't believe it is able to grow its force AND continue its offensive actions in the Donbas, not to mention start a new counter-offensive in the Kursk region. 

Russia has shown, and Mashovets just pointed out, that Russia has displayed no patience in terms of force rebuilding.  It expends new resources as fast as they can be fed into the front instead of building up forces to use in a cohesive way.  This has always been the case, but what seems to be different now is there aren't enough volunteers to keep up this strategy.  Therefore, it can't increase its force presence in Ukraine while also continuing its costly offensive grind.

Steve