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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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3 hours ago, dan/california said:

Having said that, and looking back at the end of WW2, we hung about one percent of the Germans that deserved it, may be less. But eighty years on it is hard to argue that mercy, even undeserved mercy, was the wrong course.

I am not sure if mercy is the right word. It was more of a bargain. US et consortes needed another army and strategically placed real estate in NATO, so preferred to cut a deal. Otherwise half of the Allied army in Europe would have to be repurposed as jailers.

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5 hours ago, fireship4 said:

What does one have to do with the other?  Not wishing to be associated with nazis used to be de rigeur.

I did a lengthy post on this long time ago. Basically, due to Soviet history narratives, in former WarPac countries there is a meme of Wehrmacht and Waffen SS being extremely efficient killers of Russians. It is obvious why the Ukrainians would want to associate a little with that reputation. When I was a kid, during Russian occupation (which ended only in 1993) when there were war films on I rooted for the Germans.

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28 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

I did a lengthy post on this long time ago. Basically, due to Soviet history narratives, in former WarPac countries there is a meme of Wehrmacht and Waffen SS being extremely efficient killers of Russians. It is obvious why the Ukrainians would want to associate a little with that reputation. When I was a kid, during Russian occupation (which ended only in 1993) when there were war films on I rooted for the Germans.

Yeah, the reasons why there even are "Ukrainian Nazis" is not because they believe in pure Germanic race or whatever, but because the literal Nazis has treated them (and their ancestors) better than the Russians have.

Being angry at superficial Nazi symbols while ignoring that both Russia and actual German political parties like AfD are following actual Nazi goals and ideas, is either incredibly shortsighted or acting in a bad faith.

Edited by Letter from Prague
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29 minutes ago, Eug85 said:

It looks like Germany intends to stop military support for Ukraine

The minister of finance is a complete lackey for ultra neo market liberalism. So he insists on austerity, introducing tax cuts for the mega rich and cutting social benefits at every corner.

Almost the entirety of internal German government work is trying to work around his constant political sabotage of every project. 

I don't think his party will even make it over the 5% lower limit you need to get into parliament in 2025. In autumn of that year are the next parliamentary elections, and unless something strange happens, the new government will support Ukraine.

 

Edited by Carolus
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15 minutes ago, Carolus said:

The minister of finance is a complete lackey for ultra neo market liberalism. So he insists on austerity, introducing tax cuts for the mega rich and cutting social benefits at every corner.

Almost the entirety of internal German government work is trying to work around his constant political sabotage of every project. 

I don't think his party will even make it over the 5% lower limit you need to get into parliament in 2025. 

 

According to the twitter thread the article says that its (🤡)Scholz' decision(🤡), the finance minister just had the Job of telling people

https://x.com/Phade0815/status/1824726877581324528?t=LzHsL_2FHVQuPDN7y_OJIQ&s=19

 

..Something something all it takes..

 

Edited by Kraft
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12 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

These kind of memes make me highly uncomfortable. Why play up a connection to the Wehrmacht when the other side’s information operations already paint Ukraine and NATO as Nazi Germany 2.0?

Ah yes. Because as we all know thanks to social media in 2024 - a meme trolling russians is what makes one a Nazi.

Not concentration camps where one puts and mass murders people by their ethnicity. Like russians fighting "Ukrainian and NATO Nazi Germany 2.0" do. That's genetically pure anti-Nazism.

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11 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

I imagine there are alternatives to enemy brutality besides playing nazis

Any mass murder sites in Ukraine by people playing actual Nazis that I can visit?

Ah right there are quite a few of these now.

Granted these are not as horrible as some random NAFO meme that riles up a bunch of Western wallflowers.

Edited by kraze
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2 hours ago, Eug85 said:

It looks like Germany intends to stop military support for Ukraine

Support is not stopped but apparently there will be nothing on top. So it's 8 billions for this year and 4 billions for the next. The thing is that also those 4 billion euros are already overbooked.

But yeah, this comes as a total surprise for me too and seems not to be just FDPs next provocation.

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It has been said, that new military aid will be financed by frozen russian money. Pretty sure that this is a political manoeuvre because shortly there will be state elections in some eastern states where the governing parties are losing badly in forecasts. 15 % yesterday for all governing parties together in saxony for example.

Our government is a complete cluster****. I have never seen such a disfunctional one in my lifetime in germany.

   

 

Edited by Anon052
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Before this gets out of hand here is a translated excerpt from Zeit about German aid for Ukraine: (the original report by FAZ is behind a paywall)

Quote

It states that "new measures" may only be taken if "funding is secured" in the budgets for this and the coming years. The aim is to ensure "that the ceilings are adhered to".

Funds for Ukraine amounting to around eight billion euros have already been budgeted for the current year. The planned ceiling for next year is four billion euros and is apparently already overbooked.

[...]

The German government is "working with the G7 states and the EU in particular to open up a financing instrument worth 50 billion dollars for Ukraine in the short term by using frozen Russian assets"

[...]

Shortly before a self-imposed deadline expired, the leaders of the SPD, Greens and FDP agreed on changes to the draft federal budget for 2025. Some points of contention were resolved, but there is still a financial gap of twelve billion euros. This money must be saved, although it is not yet clear where exactly.

So, this is not stopping support for Ukraine but telling our MoD that if they want to send additional stuff, the money has to come from somewhere, they are not getting anything on top.

Edited by Butschi
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12 hours ago, Bearstronaut said:

These kind of memes make me highly uncomfortable. Why play up a connection to the Wehrmacht when the other side’s information operations already paint Ukraine and NATO as Nazi Germany 2.0?

Also for @fireship4 @Jiggathebauce and other who also "feel uncomfortable"

Adding to completely right opinion of @Maciej Zwolinski about Wehrmacht meme like "best Vanya-killers"... Em... Many-many pages ago I already told about this war is also a war of memes and senses and about such feature of Ukrainians as frontier nation as tough mockering of the enemies - to make all their a...s burning like volcanos (read the letter of Zaporozhian cossacks to Turkish Sultan, for example). Russian propaganda long-time was describing "Maidan regime and it supporters" and  as nazi. Maybe rational westerners on our place would try to explain "no-no, we are not nazi! Here is agrgument1, 2,3..." But Ukrainians as Slavic nation more developed sensitive feeling than rational. We will just mock and troll Russians instead to dissuade them - "yes, we are mighty Ivan-killers, here our white/balkan crosses, Wehrmacht marches, German-made vehicles fight you again ha-ha! Fear us!"

Russians of course also attack our sensitive things, but... they can't do trolling so mockery as we are. Despite both our nations since Tsars and Soviet times understand some common signs, which formed our post-Soviet sense of humor, Russian humor is too elepantine and vulgar (if you watch modern Russian comedies - it's tasteless vulgarity on background of what comedies filmed in Soviet Union), when Ukrainain humor is more close to British, giving a tips of senses. Those, who understand context and have sense of humor similar to our - those will find this fun. Who not - well... then not.

Popularity of Wehrmacht memes and associations (not only in Ukriane) exists also because of they have attractive aestetic, evil, but attractive. German order, fun langauge very suitable for commanding :), stylish uniform, exellent technic, bravura marches, Annenerbe etc. I just ask you - what your first associations with Star Wars? I bet - symbols of "dark side" - Vader, Star Destroyer and Imperial March. And many people, parading on festivals in StormTroopers ammunition do not make them followers of the evil and tyranny. 

Maybe for many westerners it can be weird, but in post-Soviet countries, most of all suffering from WWII, along with commemoration of WWII almost always exists a humoristic side of attitude to this war, especially growing up since 90th. 

Just watch two fragments of Ukrainain "Masks-show", the gag-show, similar to Benny Hill, which in 90th-2000th had huge popularity on post-Soviet space. These fragments are from their large 4-series show "Masks in partisan unit". Maybe this help to understand, why we don't "feel uncomfortable" on this things. The video quality isn't good, but in good quality is only whole 1,5 hours show )

Drunken partisan, dismissed by his commander, saves failed attack on German strongpoint and captured it alone

Drunken partisans drive to German-held town and drink in German pub, bulling German soldiers, main hero courting to SS or Gestapo girl  

 

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Russian MoD officially recognized Russian troops withdrew on eastern bank of Seym river in Tyotkino area and blew up two bridges through the river. So, part of border terrritory marked by red now either neutral or soon will be Ukrainian

Image

 

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"Bradley" of 47th brigade evacuates soldiers from position which was on the verge of falling. Russians in dozen meters and prepared for last burst, but "Bradley" has broken their plans. 

Alas, situation on Pokrovsk direction is terrible. The enemy is already in 6 km from Myrnohrad town. Main problem - huge lack of personnel, advantage of the enemy in infantry and gliding bombs, no proper position, often completely incompetecnt commanding on all levels. It's a feeling UKR military command decide to sacrifice with part of Donetsk oblast for some more ambitious goals. So, after most of air-assault brigade were moved to Kursk from Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions, here we constantly rolling back, but anyway do not allowing Russians to achieve breakthrough. But this thin red line already on the verge....

 

Edited by Haiduk
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Just unconfirmed rumors for now, but some TGs report UKR troops could break on the northern flank of Korenevo, threating to encircle the town, so Russians prefered to abandon the town and withdraw. Allegedly our troops mop up the town now.

Yesterday Russian TG reported UKR HIMARS again wiped out the column, driving to reinforce Kornevo.

Image

Edited by Haiduk
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5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's a feeling UKR military command decide to sacifice with part of Donetsk oblast for some more ambitious goals.

Given limited resources, what is the best course of action? Anything to make Russia closer to collapse, probably (and show allies offense is possible, and red lines can be broken).

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4 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

Given limited resources, what is the best course of action? Anything to make Russia closer to collapse, probably (and show allies offense is possible, and red lines can be broken).

Russian advance in Donetsk oblast for a year.

Blue/red contours - administrative boundaries of Donetsk oblast, thin black line - contact line on 2022, bold black line - current contact line. Red zones - Russian gains for last year.

Image

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Yeah, it’s amazing the whole border wasn’t just covered in minefields on minefields and fighting positions 30km deep.

On the plus side, it sounds like Tetkino and Glushkovo are cut off from reinforcements, assuming Korenovo has been surrounded/taken. That’s a decent chunk of territory!

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34 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Just unconfirmed rumors for now, but some TGs report UKR troops could break on the northern flank of Korenevo, threating to encircle the town, so Russians prefered to abandon the town and withdraw. Allegedly our troops mop up the town now.

Yup, guys here as well have unofficial confirmations from Ukrainian contacts on the ground. Though there is a mess cause these @#$%^& naming conventions if we actually talk about a village or  town. 😉 There are also some village gains as a bonus on other side.

Edited by Beleg85
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8 hours ago, Carolus said:

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/s/Eb0K9sBHAj

Hopefully this doesn't embed due to the autoplay issue.

So, someone taped an AK to a drone. Not sure if they reached practical usage level for this yet, but it looks scary.

I find it interesting that these sorts of improvisations with small arms have been going on since the start of the war (and of course, before that in other contexts), yet we've seen no evidence that anybody is using them.  At least not at scale.  There must be some significant practical limitations that causes them to remain a novelty.  Difficulty aiming, limited ammo, putting a more expensive drone at greater risk, etc.

Steve

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2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, guys here as well have unofficial confirmations from Ukrainian contacts on the ground. Though there is a mess cause these @#$%^& naming conventions if we actually talk about a village or  town. 😉

As i understand right they say about town since we conducted outflanking push

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How was captured Russian company strongpoint, where 102 Russian conscripts surrendered. M2 group of SBU Alfa Special Forces attacked preliminary their trench system with "fat drones". Powerful explosions broken the will of Russians, who hide under the ground and they surrendered. British journalists albeit claimed, conscripts tried to abandon positions, but were met with shooting of "Akhmat", so they returned on positions and surrenderd.

 

 

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Many talks, credits and videos about "Bradley", but here rare opinion about "Marder"

Accordiong to the words of guys, participating in combat in Kursk oblast, Marders showed itself very well. Good combination of proper armored protection and firepower, the vehicle has nice survivabilty, withstood multiple hits of different wepon, when most ystems were broken it was capable to pull out guys on "last breath" and again came to service after repair. As whole, guys highly praised this vehicle. Most of them in service to this time.      

 

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