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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

Well, yes and no. On one side it is spit into Tsar's face. But on other, there is no "Ukrainian" and "Russian" land in minds of significant part of population and probably Putin himself; at least not East of Dnieper. Kharkiv is the same as Kursk, so sadly fate of some villages near official border is not that concerning for Moscow. It could be worse.

You can think of it as about nomads from Arabian Peninsula...borders and countries  are theoretical, administrative lines drawn by some vicious external powers to divide one people (in London probably). Unfortunatelly, it is sentiment shared even by many homini sovietici in Ukraine. Borders are really not that important; cultural lineage is. So hard to tell what effect latest events may have politically, beyond embarassment.

Just to remind folks, in twisted muscovite logic, Ukraine currently "occupies" entire Russian oblasts in the south.

Ok, once Ukraine occupy Bryansk-Orel-Kursk, we will continue with this discussion 🙂

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4 hours ago, Sgt Joch said:

Maybe, but my assessment does not change, launching a major offensive from that point does not make a lot of sense.

It sure does if there are goals not directly tied to the specific terrain they are taking.  Namely political embarrassment for Putin, shoring up spirits of the Ukrainian population after a year of general disappointment, reminding allies that Ukraine is worth investing in, demoralizing Russian forces, and introducing more stress to Putin's grip on power.

However, there are some terrain features in the direction they are heading in that are quite interesting:

  1. Sudza is a rail and major road hub for that sector of the front.  Holding it will likely cause significant, but temporary, disruption for Russian logistics.
  2. Rylsk is very interesting.  Look at this map.  If Ukraine isolates, or better still takes, there's a rather significant chunk of border territory Russia will have trouble keeping.  If they advance along the border they would take a sizeable amount of Russian territory (relative to territory seizures as of late) and actually SHORTEN their lines.Screenshot 2024-08-08 at 5.53.44 PM.png
  3. As mentioned a few pages ago, we have seen evidence that Russia has been planning another cross border attack since their Kharkiv offensive.  This could be a preemptive strike to throw into the dumpster whatever plans might still exist.
  4. If they advanced eastward from the northern most point of advance, and went about the same distance to the east they would be in possession of the primary transmission lines that come from the Kursk NPP run south and east of Kursk.  I think those lines feed Belgorod.  Cutting them would no doubt put a big hurt on the region.

Anyway, I think the majority of the reasons for doing this are not tied to terrain, so whatever the terrain yields is a bonus IMHO.

Steve

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It looks like cavalry may have a hard time coming...so this is this OTH capability latest quarrel was about?

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Anyway, I think the majority of the reasons for doing this are not tied to terrain, so whatever the terrain yields is a bonus IMHO.

Just forcing Russians to keep more troops along borders in the future would be worthy strategic goal in itself. Mobiks in training are only ones who could do it in numbers...but training in vicinity of enemy border could be mortal for them.

 

Edited by Beleg85
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3 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

It's not European power plant, it's Russian one. It is quite literally our enemy's source of power. The energy it makes is used to build weapons and munitions that kill innocents and run disinformation campaigns, cyberattacks and election interference against my people. If it has to go, it has to go.

Moreover Ukrainians are pretty good with their targeting, both at picking targets and at actually hitting them.

A Russian plant in the European part of Russia. Destruction could have widespread impact outside of the immediate area, not to mention the Russian kinetic response. 

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I don't think we should be entirely surprised if we see some sort of activity Hlukhiv area.  Maybe nothing on the same scale that we've seen so far, but something to get Russian forces panicked about becoming a pocket.  It really wouldn't take too much.  A couple of company's worth of forces attacking in a couple of identified weak spots could have far reaching consequences.

Steve

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Note about the size of this operation.  If Ukraine is able to take all the territory between where they are now and the border town of Sydorivka, it would be about 5000km2.  To put this in perspective, it's about 1/2 as much territory as the 2022 Kharkiv counter offensive took.  And we all consider that to be significant, so let's not dismiss the possible territorial impact of this operation.

Steve

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5 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said:

A Russian plant in the European part of Russia. Destruction could have widespread impact outside of the immediate area, not to mention the Russian kinetic response. 

Yes, it is foolish to even suggest Ukraine would try to take out the plant.  They're not stupid.  Plus, looking at the geography it is highly unlikely they could manage it. 

However, taking out the transmission lines that run south/southeast is something that at least looks possible.  And guess what?  Cutting the lines is just as effective as taking/damaging/destroying the plant.  At least in the short term.  And also guess what?  Nobody would raise an eyebrow about snipping the lines.  Which means if Ukraine has a goal of taking all that power offline then there's a far easier, far more practical, and totally unobjectionable way to do it.

Steve

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24 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, it is foolish to even suggest Ukraine would try to take out the plant.  They're not stupid.  Plus, looking at the geography it is highly unlikely they could manage it. 

The plant is undergoing refueling, apparently. That makes it much more interesting.

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Another interesting location near Kursk is the Kursk airport, which serves as an airbase currently. I assume being able to deny that field to Russia is at least somewhat useful. I hope a sabotage group is already nearby with some drones and bricks of HE!

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2 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

They pretend to claim things that make no sense but they lie, they know they lie a they never believed in anything they said, they are not bound by facts and truth at all.

While this is true it is important to remember that all governments that have this attitude sooner or later have to act as if lies are real to keep the facade going or for simple the fact that many of the people they recruit to their cause (i.e. populating positions of power in the military and public service) believe the lies.

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A little light entertainment:

Kadyrov’s troops claim they ‘missed’ Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast
 

Quote

 

Deployed in Kursk Oblast, Russia’s National Guard unit Akhmat “missed” advancing Ukrainian troops and never engaged in combat, Apti Alaudinov, Akhmat’s commander, claimed on Aug. 8...

Alaudinov stated that Ukrainian forces allegedly "simply passed by" Chechen-held positions without engaging in a fight...

“Telegram channel VChK-OGPU reported that the Kadyrovites special forces stationed in the Korenivsky district 'dispersed' after the first strikes by Ukrainian forces—that is, they fled,” the report reads.

 

 

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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:
  1. Rylsk is very interesting.  Look at this map.  If Ukraine isolates, or better still takes, there's a rather significant chunk of border territory Russia will have trouble keeping.  If they advance along the border they would take a sizeable amount of Russian territory (relative to territory seizures as of late) and actually SHORTEN their lines.

 

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Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1end3z9/part_1_of_2_robert_madyar_of_ukraines_414th/

[Part 1 of 2] Robert Madyar, of Ukraine's 414th Strike UAV Battalion ("Madyar's Birds") drone team, narrates strikes on Russian artillery positions between August 1-6, hitting 22 enemy artillery pieces with FPV strike drones just over that span of time. (YT link in comments) Published August 8, 2024

 

 

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