How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Aragorn2002]

13 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Think its say to say the F-16s are now flying.

Good hunting, guys!

[ArmouredTopHat]

Hopefully a good sign of a potential trend to come. Ukraine clearly view the glide bomb threat as a major issue to be solved. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

Barely a few days after I noted the absence of combat footage on western MBTs
 

Seem to be making good use of that reverse speed to peek what looks like a ridgeline.

Edited August 5 by ArmouredTopHat

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.threads.net/@bohuslavska_kate/post/C-OU-xJNqX9?xmt=AQGzKYw9ewZwVRfZ2OYJD-Sau-s0FiqLMXOGOgwG3gROww

This meme is very funny!

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/05/world/bangladesh-protests

Bangladesh’s Leader Resigns and Flees Country After Protests

The country’s army chief said an interim government would be formed, as demonstrators successfully challenged Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s harsh rule.

 

It always comes down to whether or not the army is willing to kill people wholesale. In Bangladesh it wasn't. How doe we eventually get the same outcome in Russia, among other places?

[acrashb]

Just when you think you're sufficiently scared of drones, it turns out you're not:
 

 

 

[Beleg85]

Further "reorganization" in Russian High command may be incoming...; usually good intelligence source but wait for confirmation...[btw. some of changes already known for some time].

https://x.com/Maciej_Korowaj/status/1820502434608730372

Changes in Russian MOD on day 5.08.2024:

1. Minister of Defense, Gen. Sergei Shoigu - removed from office;

2. First Deputy Minister of Defense Ruslan Tsalikov - removed from office;

3. Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov (infrastructure) - arrested;

4. Deputy Minister of Defense, Gen. Colonel Yuri Sadovenko (Administration of the Russian Defense Ministry) - removed from office;

5. Deputy Minister of Defense, Tatyana Shevtsova (financial support) - dismissed;

6. Deputy Minister of Defense, Gen. Reserve Nikolai Pankov (State Secretary) - dismissed;

7. Deputy Minister of Defense, Gen. Pavel Popov (Innovation Research) - dismissed;

8. Former Deputy Minister of Defense, General of the Army Dmitry Bulgakov (Logistics) - arrested;

9. Lt. Gen. Yuri Kuznetsov, head of the Main Personnel Department - arrested;

10. Lt. Gen. Vadim Shamarin - arrested;

11. Vladimir Verteletsky - arrested;

12. Press Secretary of the Ministry of Defense Rossiana Markovskaya - removed from office;

13. Lt. Gen. Aleksandr Burachenok, assistant to the Minister of Defense, was removed from office;

14. General Director of the Military Construction Enterprise Andrei Belkov - arrested;

15. Director of the Department of Property Relations Mikhail Sapunov - dismissed;

16. General Director of the Military Construction Enterprise Vladimir Pavlov - arrested;

17. Director of the Patriotic Park Vyacheslav Akhmedov - arrested;

18. Deputy Head of the Main Department of Innovative Development Maj. Gen. Vladimir Shestarov - arrested.

 

Edited August 5 by Beleg85

[zinz]

https://www.twz.com/air/russian-pilot-films-his-flanker-falling-away-after-ejecting-during-combat-mission

 

[zinz]

https://kyivindependent.com/as-ukraine-banks-on-its-young-tech-startups-western-banks-are-cutting-them-off/

Broad application of sanctions... 

[zinz]

https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/first-ukrainian-f-16ams

Tom Coopers analysis of what can be seen with the available info on the F16s in Ukraine.

Quote

Hello everybody!

Yesterday, official Kyiv released a number of photos and vidoes showing the first few F-16s of the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Force (PSU). These are enabling some useful conclusions about their origins and equipment. Thus, lets have a closer look at what is what.

***

For the start, this jet here looks genuine for most of the public…

…but, at the second look…. hm…. yes, sure, F-16s have gold-tinted cockpit transparencies (canopies): that serves both the decrease of their radar cross section (because cockpits tend to have a huge radar cross section), and the protection of the pilot from electromagnetic radiation (like that from the radar). But, a jet with a cockpit transparency this yellow…hm… that’s called ‘silvering’ and is actually indicative of the plexiglass of the canopy being exposed to the Sun for too long; getting ‘worn out’, and being in need of replacement.

One can see this often on aircraft of the Russian Air-Space Force….for example on this Su-35S photographed from a Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft of the US Navy, while escorting MiG-29s and Su-24s in the process of delivery to Libya, back in August 2020:

…but surely not on ex-NATO aircraft delivered to Ukraine ‘yesterday’. Something of that kind belongs to ‘things’ that ‘they would never do’.

Why?

Because worn out cockpit transparencies are getting brittle and becoming sensitive to overpressure - like caused by the jet flying at high speeds. Means: they can crack, even burst, injure the pilot, jeopardise his and the safety of the jet.

Moreover, the antennas of the APX-113 identification friend-or-foe have a ‘wrong form’. Actually: the IFF-antennas (especially considering what’s visible under the intake of the jet on the top photo) is looking like that of the APX-109 IFF-system, usually installed on F-16ADFs of the US Air Force.

….however, the USA are not known to have pledged even a single F-16 for Ukraine. And even if: an F-16ADF would also have that ‘blister’ on the base of its fin, like on the photo here - which is not visible on any photos of Ukrainian F-16s published so far:

Finally, the camouflage colours are incomplete (no Dark Ghost Gray was applied along the upper fuselage behind the cockpit).

Thus, I guess, this jet (one of the two in front of which President Zelensky made his appearance) is either an instructional airframe, or an excellent decoy - or both: one of ex-US Air Force F-16ADFs, withdrawn from storage at the AMARG, stripped down of all the useful parts, and now used for training purposes or as a decoy:

For me, much more interesting was the following photo:

As for why…

All US-made aircraft are wearing lots of insignia that make it possible to identify them. In the case of jets made for the US Air Force, the most important between these is the ‘FY-number’: essentially the airframe number related to the contract in which the airframe in question was ordered. This is nearly always applied somewhere on the aircraft - even if often in very different fashion - and that irrespectively if the jet is operated by the US- or some other air force.

While FY-numbers were smudged out from all the other photos released by official Kyiv, on the photo above - they were not. Therefore, when zooming in, we can see this:

As soon as these digits are visible, the rest is ‘easy’. Check such sources of reference like the F-16.net and you’re going to find out that the jets in question are:

80-3596

80-3599.

The prefix 80 denotes the year of the contract in which they were ordered. It must not be precisely the year in which it was manufactured, but is good for orientation in this regards.

3596 and 3599 are individual aircraft numbers.

Means: these two jets were ordered (and, most likely: manufactured, too) in the Year 1980.

Indeed, both jets were ordered by Denmark (i.e. for the Royal Danish Air Force). Following their mid-life upgrade to the F-16AM-standard, they were looking something like on this photo (by Vincent Jacques):

There are other ‘aids’ to recognize them as such, as ex-Danish jets, too. For example:

• ‘intercept spotlight’ installed on the left side of the nose section (not all the F-16A/AMs have such a light installed)

• no container for braking parachute on the base of the fin (not all the F-16A/AMs have this container installed).

….also notable on this photo is the ‘correct’ form of antennas of the APX-113 IFF-system in front of the cockpit (this is nick-named the ‘Bird Slicer’).

What else can be seen on photos of Ukrainian F-16AMs released yesterday?

A lot about their armament and equipment. For example:

No matter from what aspect taken, and regardless how much was different insignia smudged out, all the photos are showing aircraft armed with old AIM-120A or AIM-120B active radar homing, medium range air-to-air missiles. These are usually installed on wing-tip pylons. They entered operational service in 1991, and were used in combat - for example - during the Kosovo War (or NATO operation against Serbia). Back then, a Dutch F-16AM shot down a Serbian MiG-29 with one of such missiles from a range of more than 30km, just for example.

AIM-9M Sidewinder infra-red homing, short-range air-to-air missile is an older weapon: in service since the late 1980s. Indeed, it’s old enough for the Soviets to have developed excellent flare decoys against it: in service with the Iraqi Air Force, and when deployed by its MiG-25s and MiG-29s, these flares have saved several Iraqi jets during the Second Gulf War (also ‘Operation Desert Storm’), in 1991: they were highly-effective in decoying AIM-9Ms…

That said, the PIDS+ is a much more advanced piece of equipment. It’s a hardpoint (i.e. an ‘expanded pylon’) that can carry weapons - and, additionally, contains 3 missile (approach) warning systems (MWS). I.e. this pylon contains systems that can recognise the approach of an enemy missile and warn the pilot (visually and accustically) that he’s under a threat. Moreover, the PIDS+ pylon contains chaff and flare dispensers: systems dispensing decoys for enemy missiles.

Overall… well…. like much of other NATO-provided arms, ex-NATO F-16AMs delivered to Ukraine came with the equipment that’s available to ‘smaller’ NATO air forces after 30+ years of negligence by their governments. They’re not really ‘top notch’ in regards of equipment, and their weaponry is far from ‘latest’: rather something like ‘1990s standards’.

Still, they are better equipped than anything currently in service with the PSU. The PIDS+ is still a very advanced kind of gear: something that’s going to keep these jets much safer than any MiGs or Sukhois.

In regards of their armament: one must hope that the software of seeker heads of both AIM-120A/Bs and AIM-9Ms have been suitably upgraded to latest knowledge about the Russian radars and chaff and flares, so that they remain effective in combat: if so, especially AIM-120s are going to be of exceptional use - even against R-77-armed Su-30s and Su-35s.

On the negative side: they’re hopelessly outranged by the Russian R-37M. And the Russian pilots seem to be launching these ‘like there’s no tomorrow’…

As for AIM-9Ms…. AFAIK, in nearly 2,5 years since the Russian all-out invasion on Ukraine, there have been 3 or 4 ‘dogfights’ - short-range air-to-air combats - reported. And that’s including one between a Su-35 and an (unarmed) Mi-14 helicopter. Thus, one can’t expect to see these being deployed in air combats a lot (i.e. very often). However, they should be useful for intercepts of the Russian cruise missiles and attack UAVs like Shahed.

Of course, Ukrainian F-16AMs are also capable of deploying AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles and JDAM glide-bombs - like those already in service with the PSU. Indeed, it is the compatibility of the F-16AM with a very large ‘arsenal’ of very different weapons that’s going to make things significantly easier for the PSU - because when operating F-16s, Ukrainians do not need to first ‘mate’ Western weapons to a (Soviet-designed/made) jet: this is already done.

….which, in turn, should make it easier for NATO to keep Ukrainian F-16s supplied with suitable weaponry.

(With special thanks to Henrik Gram Jensen and few other chaps for their help with all the details of NATO’s F-16AMs and USAF’s F-16ADFs.)

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Further "reorganization" in Russian High command may be incoming...; usually good intelligence source but wait for confirmation...[btw. some of changes already known for some time].

https://x.com/Maciej_Korowaj/status/1820502434608730372

Changes in Russian MOD on day 5.08.2024:

1. Minister of Defense, Gen. Sergei Shoigu - removed from office;

2. First Deputy Minister of Defense Ruslan Tsalikov - removed from office;

3. Deputy Minister of Defense Timur Ivanov (infrastructure) - arrested;

4. Deputy Minister of Defense, Gen. Colonel Yuri Sadovenko (Administration of the Russian Defense Ministry) - removed from office;

5. Deputy Minister of Defense, Tatyana Shevtsova (financial support) - dismissed;

6. Deputy Minister of Defense, Gen. Reserve Nikolai Pankov (State Secretary) - dismissed;

7. Deputy Minister of Defense, Gen. Pavel Popov (Innovation Research) - dismissed;

8. Former Deputy Minister of Defense, General of the Army Dmitry Bulgakov (Logistics) - arrested;

9. Lt. Gen. Yuri Kuznetsov, head of the Main Personnel Department - arrested;

10. Lt. Gen. Vadim Shamarin - arrested;

11. Vladimir Verteletsky - arrested;

12. Press Secretary of the Ministry of Defense Rossiana Markovskaya - removed from office;

13. Lt. Gen. Aleksandr Burachenok, assistant to the Minister of Defense, was removed from office;

14. General Director of the Military Construction Enterprise Andrei Belkov - arrested;

15. Director of the Department of Property Relations Mikhail Sapunov - dismissed;

16. General Director of the Military Construction Enterprise Vladimir Pavlov - arrested;

17. Director of the Patriotic Park Vyacheslav Akhmedov - arrested;

18. Deputy Head of the Main Department of Innovative Development Maj. Gen. Vladimir Shestarov - arrested.

 

It's still unclear to me as to the exact reason for the purge and the timing of it.  Has anybody read a good and informed analysis that can be posted here?

Moscow Times made a timeline of the highest levels of the purge:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/07/25/a-timeline-of-russias-defense-ministry-purge-a85216

There is also at least one dead general for this list; Khandayev.  Direct subordinate to Ivanov died, no explanation of his death:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sudden-death-high-ranking-russian-general-set-to-testify-in-kremlin-corruption-case-pronounced-dead/ar-BB1pHAQ2

This happened a day apart from the death of a 52 year old civilian who was in custody in relation to messy MoD corruption business.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/two-associates-of-arrested-russian-defense-official-die-days-apart/ar-BB1pUF8u

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.threads.net/@maks_24_ua/post/C-TKTsXu0QO?deeplink_ig_tifu=1&tifu_login=True&xmt=AQGzr97vmyMOEM-4lEE3UVB3ttidJFTZiIw5KdcxSF4IMnM

 

Soldiers "Kurt & Company" of the 28th OMBr use the robot dog "Unitree Go 2 Pro" for reconnaissance in Toretsk.

 

 

[Beleg85]

57 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's still unclear to me as to the exact reason for the purge and the timing of it.  Has anybody read a good and informed analysis that can be posted here?

Moscow Times made a timeline of the highest levels of the purge:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/07/25/a-timeline-of-russias-defense-ministry-purge-a85216

There is also at least one dead general for this list; Khandayev.  Direct subordinate to Ivanov died, no explanation of his death:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sudden-death-high-ranking-russian-general-set-to-testify-in-kremlin-corruption-case-pronounced-dead/ar-BB1pHAQ2

This happened a day apart from the death of a 52 year old civilian who was in custody in relation to messy MoD corruption business.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/two-associates-of-arrested-russian-defense-official-die-days-apart/ar-BB1pUF8u

Steve

I used a bad framing, sorry- it is enumeration of different firings and arrests from last weeks+ some likely in the making, showing scale of purges/changes in such short period. A lot of Deputy commanders and second echelon, but also people from the top and some Russian journos expect more firings soon. Some are connected to famous "Patriot Park" complex (including among others Clubinka Musem and famous Cathedral of Military) and big money laundering sorrounding it, namely generals  Akhmedov and Shesterov.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patriot_Park

https://meduza-io.translate.goog/news/2024/08/05/zaderzhan-direktor-parka-patriot-vyacheslav-ahmedov?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=pl&_x_tr_pto=wapp

This "Army 2024" military-techncial forum was directed by the group around beforementioned folks and scheduled  to take place in middle of August...a signal to somebody?

https://www.defence-industries.com/events/international-military-technical-forum-2024

Edited August 5 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's still unclear to me as to the exact reason for the purge and the timing of it.  Has anybody read a good and informed analysis that can be posted here?

Moscow Times made a timeline of the highest levels of the purge:

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/07/25/a-timeline-of-russias-defense-ministry-purge-a85216

There is also at least one dead general for this list; Khandayev.  Direct subordinate to Ivanov died, no explanation of his death:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sudden-death-high-ranking-russian-general-set-to-testify-in-kremlin-corruption-case-pronounced-dead/ar-BB1pHAQ2

This happened a day apart from the death of a 52 year old civilian who was in custody in relation to messy MoD corruption business.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/two-associates-of-arrested-russian-defense-official-die-days-apart/ar-BB1pUF8u

Steve

Quote

 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/in-moscows-shadows/id1510124746?i=1000664267184

 

Galliotti's take is that the new minister of defense is making it very clear that if you steal so much your department is dysfunctional, you will be sorry.

[Raskol]

Hello everybody,

Could be relevant.

 

https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194

[Haiduk]

Russian sources claim "Free Russia" troops with support of troops of 22nd mech.brigade attack Kursk oblast toward Kurilovka and Goncharovka. The latter one is just a suburb of Sudzha town - district center. Sudzha is under periodical artillery and MLRS strikes, locals post videos with destructions on the streets

22nd mech. brigade is "Czech/Polish", having on armament various armor, supplied both from Eastern Europe and Ukraine- T-72A/EA/AMT, PT-91, BMP-1 (likely Polish), Rosomak

 

Edited August 6 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

UKR forces attacked on left flank toward Sudzha on Sverdlikovo border village. Some UKR TGs report Russians defend tough, but when they see exhausting of own capabilities, they surrender - as if dozens of Russian soldiers already captured 

Edited August 6 by Haiduk

[beardiebloke]

Un-jammable drone concept from Germany that doesn't rely on autonomy:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2024/08/02/german-jam-proof-fiber-optic-drone-testing-in-ukraine/

The fibre should be cheap enough in the big scheme of things; not perfect, but gets around EW for sure.

Also saw this :

https://www.threads.net/@juliamacfarlaneabc/post/C-UtYIwNgb4?xmt=AQGzszKtlcP9vTBM70Kvy_2zUMWO89y9VAlY3s0gADdf9w

 

[danfrodo]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

UKR forces attacked on left flank toward Sudzha on Sverdlikovo border village. Some UKR TGs report Russians defend tough, but when they see exhausting of own capabilities, they surrender - as if dozens of Russian soldiers already captured 

Interesting.  Just last night I was wondering whether UKR could land some punches on RU in weak sectors.  Assuming RU shortages of artillery tubes/shells and the prioritization of RU resources in offensive sectors, and horrible logistics and treatment of RU troops, there should be weak areas.  I was hoping UKR would have the strength to push some of these sectors.  I don't hope for operational breakthroughs but I am hoping that some sectors would have a local collapse force RU to redeploy it's limited resources here, then there, then over there....

[Raskol]

Things are appearing to be heating up at the border:

 

 

[Haiduk]

Last updates:

UKR troops escort Russian POWs

Russian milblogger Helicopterpilot reports Russian chopper was shot down in Kursk oblast, there are casualties among the crew

 

Russians claim this is Strikers, advancing in Kursk oblast, though some UKR sources say this is in Sumy oblast in Ukraine, but close to the border

Some less reliable TGs say some of Russian "Akhmat" units retreated and UKR troops already on approaches to Sudzha and even one source claims UKR flag is on town hall of Sudzha, but likely this is our PsyOps. From our side is tough OpSec, only some TGs transmitted unverified fragmented information - it's unknown either theses are limited insides or just interpeted Russian TGs info 

Edited August 6 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

It's interesting - Sudzha is a place, where gas-measuring station is deployed - here the Russian gas pipe is merged with Ukrainian gas transport system

Edited August 6 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Indeed it seems it is major operation, not incursion like previous ones; several usually well informed sources write about elements of several brigades engaged. Here some summary with more questions than answers.

 

[Haiduk]

Russian Ka-52, shot down, but looks like emergency landed and burning in Kursk oblast

Interesting one Russian milblogger asks "do not drop to us posts about our helicopter lossES (in multiple)"

Edited August 6 by Haiduk