How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

My personal view regarding second mobilization is based on economical reports from opposition economist Milov - second mobilization is economical catastrophe for RU. That's why they try to avoid it at all cost.

Since the beginning of this war the end result for Russia was going to be an economic collapse.  Even if Ukraine surrendered, fully, in early 2022 that is my opinion.  Russia started the war already in a downward economic trajectory and the war was, probably, an attempt to buy more time.

The longer the war goes the probability of collapse increases and the timeline shortens. Freezing the war today won't change the overall outcome, but it would likely put off the collapse for some time

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

So, what Puttin is doing? Most likely he is betting  everything on Trump announcing ceasefire. Milov said recently that RU elites are simply waiting for Forbes article that the conflict is frozen. Milov said unequivocally that the only thing that would save RU economy now is ceasefire. 

This is a very safe bet.  Putin was very reluctant to do the first one and has put off a second one for 2 years despite the obvious military efficacy for doing so.

The Kremlin has been very good, and I mean exceptionally good, at pulling manpower rabbits out of a hat.  It really is impressive.  However, each time they do it the cost goes up.  Not just monetary costs.  It is not sustainable.

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Unfortunately, this is counter factual.  Trump amply demonstrated that he is not interested in being "betrayed" by people who are doing their job and trying their best to look after their country's best interests  Trump is only interested in loyalty and the facade of success because his supporters are satisfied with a shaped message rather than reality.

Towards the end of Trump's first term we saw the quality of those carrying out his whims diminish ever further.  Those who sucked up the hardest kept their positions, no matter how incompetent or destructive they were.  In fact, incompetence and destruction were seen as plusses.

At the higher levels, Trump absolutely can not stand anybody taking any attention away from him.  He can also not stand anybody disagreeing with him, no matter how absolutely ill informed he might have been.  And even if they did, Trump would "violently" thrown them under the bus for even minor infractions, like not defending the indefensible strongly enough.  The threat of having a tough time finding a good job after working for Trump was a major consideration for people turning down jobs that under a normal president would have been snapped up in a heartbeat.

This is not some sort of partisan commentary on my part, rather it is a well documented and obvious reality.  In fact, I would say the quality of Trump's administrators in the first 2 years were a mix between incompetent and some of the best one could ask for.  By the end of the 4 years it was pretty much just hacks, ideologues, and grifters working under him.

Best example of this is how Trump left senior administration positions vacant rather than have to find someone that the Senate would approve of.  This despite the Senate being GOP controlled.

To bring this back around to how it affects Ukraine, we can presume that if Trump is elected President again that he will show the same style of leadership we saw in the last 2 years of his previous term, not the first 2 years.  All evidence from the past suggests that leadership will be strongly tilted in Russia's favor.

Steve

You would think that the slew of hardcore Republicans who think Trump is an utter disaster would clue people in that he would be an utter wreck if elected again. That includes the literal former vice president. (Who if we recall was asked to pretty much overturn the election)

Its a shame that more people in the Republican party are not like Mike Pence to be entirely honest. I cant agree with his political views at all but at least he has some damn integrity. He literally got harassed by his own party for wishing Biden the best and calling his move to step down a good one made in the interests of America. His refusal to indulge the petty attitudes of the MAGA movement is commendable in that respect, as is his continued refusal to endorse Trump. He knows more than anyone what a load of rubbish he is and that alone shows he has more backbone than most in that infernal party.

https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingas****/comments/1eesd8n/trumps_vice_president_says_trump_should_never_be/

There are a litany of former staff from the trump administration that have made it pretty clear how out of touch and juvenile trump was while in office, not to mention completely impossible to reason with or conduct meaningful international relations with because he simply did not understand how complex relations with other nations worked. This is not something we need right now. 

 

Edited July 30 by ArmouredTopHat

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

You would think that the slew of hardcore Republicans who think Trump is an utter disaster would clue people in that he would be an utter wreck if elected again. That includes the literal former vice president. (Who if we recall was asked to pretty much 'overturn' the election)

Its a shame that more people in the Republican party are not like Mike Pence to be entirely honest. I cant agree with his political views at all but at least he has some damn integrity. He literally got harassed by his own party for wishing Biden the best and calling his move to step down a good one made in the interests of America. His refusal to indulge the petty attitudes of the MAGA movement is commendable in that respect, as is his continued refusal to endorse Trump. He knows more than anyone what a load of rubbish he is and that alone shows he has more backbone than most in that infernal party.

https://www.reddit.com/r/interestingas****/comments/1eesd8n/trumps_vice_president_says_trump_should_never_be/

There are a litany of former staff from the trump administration that have made it pretty clear how out of touch and juvenile trump was while in office, not to mention completely impossible to reason with or conduct meaningful international relations with because he simply did not understand how complex relations with other nations worked. This is not something we need right now. 

 

We're veering too much away from the relevance to this thread, but yes... everything you wrote is extremely well documented and readily available.

The relevant aspect is that Trump's strongest quality is that he is who he is and nobody, not even he, is going to change that.  We just saw this at his acceptance speech at the RNC.  So it is rather astonishing that after all these years that anybody thinks he will suddenly do a 180.  There's zero evidence that is on the table and mountains of evidence that it is not.

If Trump is reelected US support for Ukraine will be significantly damaged and no further punishment of Russia will be undertaken.  As was noted a bunch of pages ago, Trump doesn't have the authority to do much about the sanctions Russia is currently under so those will largely remain in place and largely will be enforced as much as they are now.  Europe and other free nations could keep things going, but several are under similar assaults from right wing movements that are friendly to Russia.

Even if Trump isn't elected the challenges of continuing to support Ukraine at a similar level as today will be strained.  Logistics and politics are real issues, so Putin will look ahead to some other long shot to end the war, for example France or Germany shutting down support.

I don't see how this war will continue through 2025 in the "hot" form that it is in now.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/30/world/europe/russia-urozhaine-staromaiorske-ukraine.html

“It was like a fight between two packs of dogs,” said an officer, describing the struggle for one of the areas, Urozhaine. But “there came a moment when it made no sense to keep people there.”

 

 

[mosuri]

12 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Anyone else getting WW2 Luftwaffe ground forces vibes?

As soon as they run out of tanks, they can send the tank mechanics to front as well!

And there's probably another 2000 warm bodies that can hold a rifle aboard Admiral Kuznetsov, currently doing nothing useful.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, mosuri said:

As soon as they run out of tanks, they can send the tank mechanics to front as well!

And there's probably another 2000 warm bodies that can hold a rifle aboard Admiral Kuznetsov, currently doing nothing useful.

After breathing the smoke from that (barely) floating disaster area for a few months I suspect the the Kuznetsov's crew's best assault speed would be a slow crawl. But the Ukrainians might get a half our of amusement out of them.

[kimbosbread]

2 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

“Because in conditions of total dominance of UAVs (fpv), assault accumulation for a breakthrough is impossible”

[ArmouredTopHat]

5 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

“Because in conditions of total dominance of UAVs (fpv), assault accumulation for a breakthrough is impossible”

Which entirely makes sense, same would be the same under total air supremacy. Its why drone proliferation (and effective counters) are so important. 

Whoever makes more drones while simultaneously denying the enemy their drones more effectively is going to win. Still need your ground forces to exploit or defend.

In short, attacking is really hard right now, especially when you are foolish enough to keep on doing for the sake of clawing small pieces of territory away. 

[sburke]

 

China's trade with Russia is getting so difficult that payments can take half a year and most bank transfers are returned (msn.com)

Trade payments from Russia to China are taking up to six months to clear, the Kommersant reported.
Chinese banks are tightening compliance checks, fearing repercussions from Western sanctions.
US secondary sanctions on financial institutions aiding Russia have intensified since December.

Trade between Russia and China is getting ever more difficult, with some payments between partners taking up to half a year, the Kommersant business daily reported on Monday.

About 80% of bank transfers made in the Chinese yuan are also getting bounced back with no explanation, after being stalled for weeks while banks decide if they can go ahead, per Kommersant, citing unnamed sources.

Such returns can result in exchange rate or commission losses for Russian businesses, per the media outlet.
Kommersant's report highlights intensifying pressure on external parties dealing with Russian companies that have managed to keep their international business activities going despite sweeping sanctions.

Earlier this month, several unnamed major Russian commodity exporters told Bloomberg that trade with China has become increasingly difficult, as even direct payments made in the Chinese yuan were getting frozen or delayed.

The troubles started in December when the US authorized secondary sanctions targeting financial institutions that help Russia skirt sanctions.

This prompted global banks from China to the UAE, Turkey, and Austria to reduce transactions with Russia to avoid getting in the crosshairs.

The payment issues were exacerbated last month when the US Treasury rolled out a new package of expansive US sanctions against Russia, forcing the Moscow Exchange — Russia's key bourse — to halt dollar and euro trade.

To get around tightening restrictions, some Russians who want to buy goods via Chinese companies now have to go through intermediaries — at extra cost, according to Kommersant.

[Fenris]

5 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

“Because in conditions of total dominance of UAVs (fpv), assault accumulation for a breakthrough is impossible”

Case in point, posted today.  This is the most infantry I've seen moving at once for a while.

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Fenris said:

Case in point, posted today.  This is the most infantry I've seen moving at once for a while.

 

Picked up, lit up before they could even get within close range.

[dan/california]

2 hours ago, Fenris said:

Case in point, posted today.  This is the most infantry I've seen moving at once for a while.

 

That looked more like stopping and dying to me.

45 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Picked up, lit up before they could even get within close range.

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1eg5zbr/dropping_a_chonky_double_tm62_at_mine_strapped/

This must have been a bothersome bunch of Russians to get twenty plus kilos of explosive delivered by fed ex like this. I assume they were much less bothersome after this not little gift.

 

[zinz]

https://www.barrons.com/news/in-central-asia-national-languages-gain-ground-against-russian-df954303

[ArmouredTopHat]

Possible FPV interception of Helo took place today. 

[Lieutenant Ash]

 'https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/fire-devastates-critical-rocket-technology-facility-in-yekaterinburg/ar-BB1qWsGA?ocid=socialshare&pc=NMTS&cvid=fbb79d907f564c95ba7b23b8b001e3c5&ei=153                        More 'dropped cigarette' incidents at russian military industrial sites.

[poesel]

6 hours ago, zinz said:

https://www.barrons.com/news/in-central-asia-national-languages-gain-ground-against-russian-df954303

Language is a very strong element of nation building and identification. One of the many signs where these nations are going.

[Grigb]

I got curios about RU Nats UAV doctrinal thoughts and dug a little. While recent publications are difficult to obtain, the 2023 discussion [pre-FPV) are available. But first, a brief remark. Ru Nats are leaders in RU UAV applications. Whatever they do, the RU army will ultimately copy it.

The concept

Basically their idea is that they (RU Nation) cannot fight heinous West the old "meat" way (they know about RU demographics). Fully copying West Doctrines will not work either due to obvious disparities in capabilities. RU nation need dissimilar method to fight future war. And this method is Droneization of warfare and shifting focus from human focused classical formations to drone focused ones. 

Subjectively, I interpret it like they are trying to work around RU military main issue - low quality of troops and vehicles *** well as shortage of assault infantry due to high losses. It does not matter if Mother Russia can field only low quality infantry/tanks who die quickly. We can field copious amounts of drones and drone adjusted artillery, mass them at point of our choosing, annihilate enemy there and do whatever we want including forcing breakthrough.

UAV company

The basic building block of Drone formation is UAV company (lecture was give before FPV introduction):

Quote

A promising direction for the organization of UAV strike units as a tool for a combined arms commander - abstracts of the lecture by Pyotr Biryukov [Ret former RU army colonel, experienced but also Ret LDPR commander)

The basic UAV company is a highly mobile unit capable of acting both to strengthen other units and to act independently. It should be highly mobile, having pickups as transport. Main armament: medium-duty quadrocopters capable of carrying and dropping bombs. This unit, in terms of functionality, is closest to the anti-tank fighter regiments of the Second World War [independant AT regiments - IPTAPs]. With capabilities of this company, it will be possible to ensure tactical superiority of 2 km [of front line].

The advantage of the UAV company is the possibility of using it in dispersed manner. Without concentration boundaries, company columns, without exposed large points of replenishment of ammunition. This way we remove the main points of vulnerability [ of classical units].

The company should have its own rear echelon, a large car fleet. And, most importantly, the ability to collect, accumulate and transfer combat experience. So in 1941, the enemy beat up our Air Force, but from 1943 we began to beat them when Pokryshkin started creating tactical schemes. It should be the same here.

Projected fire efficiency of the unit: 24 UAVs with attack modules in one flight can drop 576 pieces of VOG-17 or VOG-25 or 48 pieces of 82 mm mines, from 24 to 48 HEAT rounds, on the enemy.

There is another advantage of UAV company for RU army. Quote of prominent RU Nat from volunteer support network

Quote

If you don't have a tool in the form of a UAV company with a certain quantity and combat capabilities, you can't rely on it [doing is something]. Any application is probabilistic. Ypu can say that you have several copters that may or may not fly. They may drop something or may not. When there is a certain number of vehicles that can complete a specified set of combat tasks in a reasonable  amount of time, the combined arms commander can do forecasting, planning, and calculations.

Our current key aim is to introduce this model in to the largest number of [army] heads.

UAV brigade

The next step is UAV brigade (concept developed during RU Nats discussions by former Moto Rifle brigade commander with SMO experience). I adjusted for better readability:

Quote

TOE

• Brigade headquarters, including a Command and Control battalion (with an analytical service)
• Support battalion, reinforced, with two transport companies and a platoon for repairing vehicles, AFVs repair company
• Reconnaissance battalion, five–company composition (two companies of optical reconnaissance UAVs, 2 companies of EW reconnaissance UAVs), reconnaissance company (motorized)
• Electronic warfare battalion
• Training and reserve battalion
• Three line (attack battalions) UAVs of a six-company composition: four companies are armed with Lancet UAVs or analogues as well VTOL drones, for additional reconnaissance of targets and control of the results of the strike
• Fifth company is heavy attack copters, the task is infantry support
• Sixth is a guard company, designed to combat saboteurs and small—scale landings, threatening UAV units
• Three separate AT companies (Kamikaze Lancet UAV or equivalent + ATGM + copters to control the results of the attack)
• Motorized infantry battalion of four companies, with grenade launcher (AGS), machine gun (12.7mm) and sniper platoons, and a mortar (120 mm) battery with six mortars, an anti-tank platoon (man portable ATGMs) and other units
• MLRS battalion
• SAM battalion - 2 batteries of the Tor air defense system
• Separate tank company, 10 tanks, a motorized rifle platoon as part of the company
• Separate unit (company or battery) armed with a weapons capable of suppressing infantry in open, force it to stop moving and keeping it immobile with fire until the UAV arrives. It can be armed with 57 mm artillery, from AZP-57 trucks or MTLB to BMP with automatic guns or some kind of BMPT. The provisional name is the brigade's fire support company. Its staff and weapons will need to be thought out separately. Reports to the brigade commander.
• UAV repair company
• Separate NBC company
• Medical company

The number of men, excluding personnel in the training and reserve battalion, is approximately 4,500 people.

The is UAV brigade solves several RU army problem - manpower and artillery shortages as well as logistical issues due to lack of wheeled transport as well as driver and low mechanization. Also this Brigade is significantly less vulnerable to CB (Achilles heel of RU artillery). 

Quote

Capabilities of the brigade:

1. A brigade may be assigned a line of defense. 2. The brigade can advance on its own. 3. In conditions when UAVs cannot be used (for example, in bad weather...), the brigade does not lose combat capability, it is in generally capable of forming a powerful battalion group, even when it is completely deprived of attack drones. 4. The brigade is capable of conducting independent actions in an isolated theater, for example, as an expeditionary formation.

[Concept of application] 

Assessing the prospects and relevance of the new-type brigade, it is necessary to clearly understand that this is not just infantry, which was given "a lot of drones." We are talking about a virtually new "ideology" of formation building...

So, the concept of the new brigade is that everything in it is built on ensuring the ability to conduct accurate, targeted fire, the result of which will not be just damage, suppression, etc., but the destruction of the attacked target, and this will be possible to the full depth of the brigade's reconnaissance assets, for all the targets identified there.

This is an innovation that has never happened before. Never in the past have either regiments, brigades, or divisions been able to completely destroy all exposed enemy targets in their offensive or defensive line to a depth of tens of kilometers. There were no technical possibilities for this.

In the past for the complete and unconditional destruction of all enemy forces and means, it was necessary to perform encirclement operations (maneuver of a large mass of troops) and then, squeezing the encirclement ring, destroy all enemy targets detected as this "compression" took  place.

It was necessary to solve the tasks of inflicting fire damage to the enemy with artillery, compensating for its a priori insufficient accuracy with the number of shells. The problem of destruction of enemy troops who were not in direct contact with their troops was also solved by artillery, with an increase in the consumption of ammunition and the time of exposure for firing, that always gave the enemy a chance for some kind of countermeasures.

Now it becomes possible to simply identify targets in a given area and destroy them, ussualy , before they can open fire themselves, reducing the enemy's military formation to separate and unrelated groups of demoralized foot soldiers, or even destroy them totally and completly with almost no survivors — without encirclement (maneuver), purely due to the fire. While doing it very quickly.

The whole structure of the brigade is built around the need to provide such an opportunity for it and prevent the enemy from doing it in return. That is why the brigade has unprecedented reconnaissance capabilities...

That is why brigade does not have large targets that the enemy could hit, and even the volume and mass of the required ammunition is minimized.

That is why loitering ammunition was chosen as the main attack weapon, with probability to hit of 0.8 or more during the first and often last attack, rather than artillery or something else with a higher power of destruction, but less likely to destroy the target in the first attack (for artillery - from the first shot).

That is why the brigade has an entire electronic warfare battalion, that engages, among other things, in creating a virtual "false target environment" so that similar actions on the part of the enemy would not lead to a similar result.

And therefore, the main means of disrupting enemy reconnaissance are false targets and creation of false positions.

In this case, we are talking about the same conceptual breakthrough as the appearance of tank troops in the past, and this will be a widespread [doctrinal] breakthrough that can be scaled to all [RU] Ground Forces and give them a completely new quality, radically greater combat capabilities, with significantly fewer personnel fighting directly on the front line.

I skipped large portions of offence and defense application as it is too big for me to translate now. But here is interesting part regarding fighting NATO artillery

Quote

Let's say we have a NATO artillery battalion — consisting of four batteries of 6 towed guns each, a total of 24 guns — and it is dispersed over an area of 6 hectares, its location is known with minimal error, but it is not observed. We need to suppress it with artillery. Let's say 50% of the ammunition allocated for suppression is cluster shells, the rest is high-explosive fragmentation shells. So, 540 high-explosive fragmentation and 180 cluster shells are needed for suppression. 720 shells in total.

First, let's consider the ideal model. Let's assume that a single gun has 5 minutes to shoot part of the assigned ammunition and start changing positions. The rate of fire of one gun is defined as 10 rounds per minute (let it be the newest SPG), which will allow each gun to shoot 50 shells from the spot. Let's assume that there are 50 shells in the onboard ammunition rack and it is not necessary to take ammunition from the ground (in fact, this is only true for the newest self-propelled guns "Coalition-SV", but let it be). Then, in order to suppress the enemy artillery battalion, our two-battery (6 vehicles each) battalion will have to simultaneously shoot off all the available ammo on the vehicles, specifically 600 shells, then leave the position with all the vehicles, load ammunition at the ammunition supply points, go to other positions unknown to the enemy and from there shoot 10 more shells per vehicle at the enemy. And then change positions again. The suppression of the enemy's artillery battalion thus stretches for hours.

The mass of spent ammunition, taking into account the packaging, is slightly less than 40 tons, which will need to be urgently transported and dispersed on the ground. The number of KAMAZ-5350 or standard URAL 4320 vehicles is 6 units, URAL 4320 vehicles with increased load capacity or KAMAZ 43118 — 4 units.

At the same time, the reality is even more complicated. The SPG has a time to failure parameter, it cannot fire such series, the guns will quickly fail, and the real time to complete a combat mission will be several times longer, even without taking into account the need to spend time loading shells, and we will have to load them — there are no 50 shells in a on board ammunition load, and even "Coalitions" will not have them either, since shells are always consumed [for other fire missions].

Moving SPG will be targeted by attack UAVs, and there is a risk of losing some of them, which will require an increase in the consumption of shells on the surviving SPG in order to complete the task. The enemy during pauses for our replenishment of ammunition may leave the positions, even with towed guns, enemy counter-battery fire may actually begin in 5 minutes, but in three, and so on.

So, in a real war, attempts to act in this way may simply not justify the final result. But the most important thing to consider is the fact that the enemy artillery can be self-propelled and can fire from short stops. In the video below, the Archer SPG performs a fire mission and leaves the position so quickly that it cannot be hit even with a ready—to-fire gun, that received the calculation of the exact coordinates of the SPG at the time of its first shot - even for that it is not enough time. The AFU has these self-propelled guns.

Then the task of suppressing it with our artillery becomes unsolvable in principle — no matter how good artillery reconnaissance we have. In contrast to artillery for UAVs an enemy artillery battalion is just 24 targets, and it doesn't matter if they are moving or not, you just need to see them. Even assuming that some of the attack UAVs will be shot down or miss, we can safely guarantee that 30-35 units will be enough not just to suppress, but to completely destroy enemy artillery. Thus, from the point of view of fire performance, UAVs are many times superior to artillery, which means they can ensure the stability of the brigade's infantry in defense, on pair or even better than artillery.

UAV division

And the final step is UAV division that should serve as RU main offensive hammer. Unfortunately, there is very little information on it (seems details are deliberately withhold from public sources). We only know that it was presented to Belousov (whether he accepted it or not we do not know).

Edited July 31 by Grigb

[ArmouredTopHat]

F-16 deliveries have taken place. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I got curios about RU Nats UAV doctrinal thoughts and dug a little. While recent publications are difficult to obtain, the 2023 discussion [pre-FPV) are available. But first, a brief remark. Ru Nats are leaders in RU UAV applications. Whatever they do, the RU army will ultimately copy it.

The concept

Basically their idea is that they (RU Nation) cannot fight heinous West the old "meat" way (they know about RU demographics). Fully copying West Doctrines will not work either due to obvious disparities in capabilities. RU nation need dissimilar method to fight future war. And this method is Droneization of warfare and shifting focus from human focused classical formations to drone focused ones. 

Subjectively, I interpret it like they are trying to work around RU military main issue - low quality of troops and vehicles *** well as shortage of assault infantry due to high losses. It does not matter if Mother Russia can field only low quality infantry/tanks who die quickly. We can field copious amounts of drones and drone adjusted artillery, mass them at point of our choosing, annihilate enemy there and do whatever we want including forcing breakthrough.

UAV company

The basic building block of Drone formation is UAV company (lecture was give before FPV introduction):

There is another advantage of UAV company for RU army. Quote of prominent RU Nat from volunteer support network

UAV brigade

The next step is UAV brigade (concept developed during RU Nats discussions by former Moto Rifle brigade commander with SMO experience). I adjusted for better readability:

The is UAV brigade solves several RU army problem - manpower and artillery shortages as well as logistical issues due to lack of wheeled transport as well as driver and low mechanization. Also this Brigade is significantly less vulnerable to CB (Achilles heel of RU artillery). 

I skipped large portions of offence and defense application as it is too big for me to translate now. But here is interesting part regarding fighting NATO artillery

UAV division

And the final step is UAV division that should serve as RU main offensive hammer. Unfortunately, there is very little information on it (seems details are deliberately withhold from public sources). We only know that it was presented to Belousov (whether he accepted it or not we do not know).

Some further information relevant to this. Excellent work as always Grigb. Interesting comment from the pro RU side that suggests a hit rate of 10% for FPVs. The lowest I have seen so far. 

[The_Capt]

29 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I got curios about RU Nats UAV doctrinal thoughts and dug a little. While recent publications are difficult to obtain, the 2023 discussion [pre-FPV) are available. But first, a brief remark. Ru Nats are leaders in RU UAV applications. Whatever they do, the RU army will ultimately copy it.

The concept

Basically their idea is that they (RU Nation) cannot fight heinous West the old "meat" way (they know about RU demographics). Fully copying West Doctrines will not work either due to obvious disparities in capabilities. RU nation need dissimilar method to fight future war. And this method is Droneization of warfare and shifting focus from human focused classical formations to drone focused ones. 

Subjectively, I interpret it like they are trying to work around RU military main issue - low quality of troops and vehicles *** well as shortage of assault infantry due to high losses. It does not matter if Mother Russia can field only low quality infantry/tanks who die quickly. We can field copious amounts of drones and drone adjusted artillery, mass them at point of our choosing, annihilate enemy there and do whatever we want including forcing breakthrough.

UAV company

The basic building block of Drone formation is UAV company (lecture was give before FPV introduction):

There is another advantage of UAV company for RU army. Quote of prominent RU Nat from volunteer support network

UAV brigade

The next step is UAV brigade (concept developed during RU Nats discussions by former Moto Rifle brigade commander with SMO experience). I adjusted for better readability:

The is UAV brigade solves several RU army problem - manpower and artillery shortages as well as logistical issues due to lack of wheeled transport as well as driver and low mechanization. Also this Brigade is significantly less vulnerable to CB (Achilles heel of RU artillery). 

I skipped large portions of offence and defense application as it is too big for me to translate now. But here is interesting part regarding fighting NATO artillery

UAV division

And the final step is UAV division that should serve as RU main offensive hammer. Unfortunately, there is very little information on it (seems details are deliberately withhold from public sources). We only know that it was presented to Belousov (whether he accepted it or not we do not know).

Gotta be honest, this sounds like a pipe dream.  Concepts are interesting but force generating a FPV-centric formation in wartime, under economic and sanctions constraints, seems like a bit of a stretch.  The training bill alone would be extremely high.  I could see the Company concept seeing the light of day, but Bdes and Divs sweeping entire sections of the front really sounds like inflated aspirations.

[Grigb]

39 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Some further information relevant to this. Excellent work as always Grigb. Interesting comment from the pro RU side that suggests a hit rate of 10% for FPVs. The lowest I have seen so far. 

Some clarifications

• He did say they factories supply to RU army 4000 per day leading to speculation that production rate around 1.5 million
• However according to full context of conversation the number 4000 drones is most likely for Observation drones, not FPVs (he was asked about Observation drones) or all together
• UKR side says that currently RU make a total 300-400 FPV attack per day. So, 4000 definitely cannot be for FPV
• A RU Nat drone designer  - only 20% of RU FPV drones reaches the target due to issues with comms modifications (Comms are RU Achilles heel)
•  So, most likely RU produce around 1500 FPV drones per day
• The same RU Nat drone designer later stated that he was told (disguised as rumor)  that quality of drones is kept low specifically to ensure large orders. The assembly of drones is controlled by somebody close to RU gov. So, nobody can do anything.   

[EDIT] So, they might produce 4000 but most of it total garbage and only around 1500 is accepted. Out them only 300-400 actually fly to UKR units.

RU war is senseless and merciless.

 

 

Edited July 31 by Grigb

[Grigb]

21 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Gotta be honest, this sounds like a pipe dream.  Concepts are interesting but force generating a FPV-centric formation in wartime, under economic and sanctions constraints, seems like a bit of a stretch.  The training bill alone would be extremely high.  I could see the Company concept seeing the light of day, but Bdes and Divs sweeping entire sections of the front really sounds like inflated aspirations.

Company is short term. Brigades and Divisions is for the Next war. With NATO.

They know the cannot win conventionally. They are afraid of Nukes. So, the only option they have is to do something new.  Like Germans and Panzer divisions. 

[EDIT] My biggest worry is that UAV company is actually blueprint for terror organizations to facilitate Mumbai level terror attack.

Edited July 31 by Grigb

[dan/california]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1egkjsl/special_forces_of_the_gur_hit_russian_base_in/?utm_source=embedv2&utm_medium=post_embed&utm_content=post_body&embed_host_url=https://community.battlefront.com/index.php

Ukraine has decided to systematically oppose Russian ambitions in the Middle East and Africa. At the same time Russia and Iran get ever closer together. This not point to peace and tranquility for the next decade.

[Tenses]

14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

[EDIT] My biggest worry is that UAV company is actually blueprint for terror organizations to facilitate Mumbai level terror attack.

This is actually one of the most interesting sides of the general drone topic and its future.

We all agree that drones have currently seriously impacted the modern battlefield thanks to being cheap, numerous and easily available. There is currently no easy and affordable solution to fight drones in large quantities and to fight them proactively(interceptor drones aka air superiority fighters). This is causing serious trouble for standard mechanized forces and will push them to transform and adapt to this situation.

But there is something, which will actually help to do that.

Terrorists are using different ways to execute their disgusting attacks. I won't be analyzing them all here as to be honest, this is a bit uncomfortable, but for drones few of their characteristics put them as a weapon of choice:

- There is practically no way to control spread of drone-capable parts. Double use parts are present in most of the electronics products. Software is even worse, I am pretty sure that ready to use AI-capable software is already on the darknet. The same problem affects any attempts of prevention based on someones purchase patterns. This is practically impossible.

- Drones are cheap. No need to be large organization with connections to state actors - everyone will have that, even one poor guy getting angry at his boss.

- Impact. Drones can do mass terrorist attacks and be probably even more deadly than big explosives.

- Relative safety of the terrorist actor doing the attack. Especially for AI capable drones.

So drones are extremely deadly weapon for terrorists group, how this actually can help? With this kind of danger, civilian market will have to provide solutions and technical prevention/defense against possible attacks. Unlike tanks and fighter jests this danger is not going to disappear with the end of the war. This will be persistent danger coming from the fact that something like drones exist and might be used in a bad way. With that in mind I am pretty sure that law enforcment will have defences/early warnings first at large events and then at every street. This is not going to happen fast but it is inevitable, drones are here to stay, just as terrorists.

Using civilian industry solutions and adapting them to military use will be much easier. Systems proven by free market, where there are no clients with billion dollar budgets for new fancy thingie, which might work, is going to change current situation much faster. This doesn't mean that mechanized forces won't change, it will just provide a tool to make that change faster and more effective.