How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

someday a book will be written about this I bet.  

It's so obvious that drones are a great option for resupplying difficult to reach (or cut off) positions.   I wonder what payload is?  And what distance can travel with what payload? 

 I think we'll be seeing drones w ~110kg capacity that will be used for evacuating the wounded.  but once you have that you also have the ability to deliver a soldier.  I think this will be a way to do airmobile operations over a short distance, like a river, in the future.  Deliver platoon- or  company-sized group behind enemy riverbank defenses to engage & clear before boats bring the battalion across.  Is this dangerous?  Yes, until compared to helicopter assault with big noisy easy to shoot helos instead of a dozens of individual drones.  Drones can come in really low and deliver a group into a tight area that's already been scouted as safe by regular drones.  Unit then deploys out to attack the defenders from flanks & rear.

Ask and you shall receive:

https://avilus.com/solution

That was the easiest to find on the googlez, but I've seen others.

There are fully battery powered trainer aircraft that can carry two people.  They show that the energy density of modern batteries is high enough to make drones with much better lift and duration than we've been seeing.

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

6 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup, and that is what I had in mind.  The thing is, remote placement of mines (so far) is more-or-less a hit and run sort of thing, where a significant effort is made to drop off a couple of mines.  Which is fine, because the effect is disproportionately positive compared to the effort.  It's just that you're not going to take out a dozen or two dozen vehicles in this way.  At least not yet!  We have talked about various forms of self deploying mines that are surely going to happen at some point.

Steve

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/1e3347i/ukrainian_fpv_pilots_attack_a_russian_amn590951/

I think its the same road, seems at least some of them were disabled via mine. 

Kinda crazy how a Spartak can eat a lot more FPVs than a typical BMP or MTLB

Edited July 14 by ArmouredTopHat

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Spider legs - that is the nightmare.  Damn thing could hide and go anywhere.

Let me help fuel your nightmares. 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/flying-robot-spider

It flys like a drone and walks like a spider.

 

[The_Capt]

33 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Let me help fuel your nightmares. 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/flying-robot-spider

It flys like a drone and walks like a spider.

 

Looks like the time between mechanical revolutions wasn’t what it used to be.

https://asirobots.com/platforms/chaos/
 

This little guy is avail online - 2 hr endurance, onboard processing and weighs in at about a kilo.  You could drop this from a drone and simply hide it in the bushes…and wait…bad dog.

https://ca.robotshop.com/products/xgo-mini-2-quadruped-robot-dog?gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAAD_f_xxCplIN-nQLTuJDk41-bw8Zr&gclid=CjwKCAjw7s20BhBFEiwABVIMrdyFS6Z9a9UzGTPi0gPaSf69Qd83aC3ZkLv1oEP5dDKsHpPaax0KFBoCCZcQAvD_BwE

[hcrof]

What the Ukrainians think about drones.

 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, chrisl said:

Let me help fuel your nightmares. 

https://spectrum.ieee.org/flying-robot-spider

It flys like a drone and walks like a spider.

 

This is the other reason I have to reject the notion that there's an effective counter measure to drones coming about in the near term.  What we have seen over the last few years is that the unmanned systems have hit a hot streak of rapid innovation, whereas the counter systems are struggling to figure out anything beyond taking existing tech and applying modifications with very questionable efficacy.  Further, the unmanned costs are not rising with their innovations while the counters seem to all be increasing their costs.

The trends are not favorable for counter unmanned capabilities.

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

7 hours ago, hcrof said:

What the Ukrainians think about drones.

 

"The only reliable protection against these microdrones will be either fully sealed bunkers and combat vehicles, or combat suits with an exoskeleton similar to space ones (and the price of a tank). That is, there will no longer be any infantry in its current understanding in future wars."

Dismounted infantry is dead alongside the tank

[Carolus]

41 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

"The only reliable protection against these microdrones will be either fully sealed bunkers and combat vehicles, or combat suits with an exoskeleton similar to space ones (and the price of a tank). That is, there will no longer be any infantry in its current understanding in future wars."

Dismounted infantry is dead alongside the tank

The way to fight land warfare will be to disrupt the flow of drones and to destroy the control nodes.

Even AI drones have someplace to take off, refuel, land. 

Land war will become a giant sniping exercise, like submarine warfare. Everyone is listening and watching, trying to locate where trucks with pallets of drones arrive and where control signals arrive or come from.

Once you took out a control node, you can shove your own drone bubble forward and then it is a standstill again until the next node is found and destroyed.

[panzermartin]

But could one day, very powerful EW systems with new technologies that deny all frequencies, render the whole drone industry useless? At least the small FPV ones that get really close to the battlefield. There must be some ceiling in available frequencies that remote control drones. 

Hint: There is already strong evidence that a big percentage of drones doesn't reach/hit their target due to jamming. 

[panzermartin]

13 hours ago, sburke said:

premature, but the underlying point is simply that we are getting more sharply divided and political violence is on the rise

Yes, that's very clear and unfortunate 

[Carolus]

42 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

But could one day, very powerful EW systems with new technologies that deny all frequencies, render the whole drone industry useless? At least the small FPV ones that get really close to the battlefield. There must be some ceiling in available frequencies that remote control drones. 

Hint: There is already strong evidence that a big percentage of drones doesn't reach/hit their target due to jamming. 

The future is AI targeting algorithms. You provide them with a search area and upload the ROE via cable inside your base, then let them fly.

Or are you suggesting EW strong enough to knock out the onboard electronics? 

There are easier methods to sterilize every man, woman and child in a 100 mile radius around your jammer than dosing them in microwaves, you know.

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Carolus said:

jammer than dosing them in microwaves, you know.

When in the US they played a Gridiron Final the seagulls around the communication tower near a place called Carnarvon in West Australia reputedly dropped dead from the sky. 

[ArmouredTopHat]

We are really getting into Mad Max territory now, seems to be some sort of troop carrying section built onto a T-54 turret.

[cesmonkey]

https://english.nv.ua/nation/ukrainian-defender-calls-on-zelenskyy-to-investigate-59th-separate-motorized-brigade-commander-50434733.html
 

Quote

Since thousands of soldiers still remain to perform combat missions in the combat zone under Shevchuk's command, I ask you, Mr. Commander-in-Chief, to pay attention and conduct an internal investigation into the facts of criminal orders, deliberate negligence, disregard for the lives and health of personnel, and actions that led to the deaths of a large number of service members, including those in high leadership positions, selfishness, blind careerism, the removal of all ‘dissenting’ commanders, suppression of morale and humiliation of personnel by complete indifference to the main goal of the military and him as a commander in the war against the enemy," Ptashka wrote on Facebook on July 14.

https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/16148
 

Quote

In order to check the situation in the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade named after Yakov Handziuk and find out the circumstances of the recent losses among the personnel, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine made a decision to travel to the zone of responsibility of the joint complex working group headed by the head of the Military Service of Law and Order of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

Mashovets shares this opinion
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/2037
 

Quote

Formalism in assessing the REAL state of the troops , sooner or later, ends in tragedy... and even when your "nice" report on the state "at the moment" has completely satisfied the senior command...

Behind the formal figure in the summary table of data or tactical signs on the map... in a significant number of cases there is not quite the picture that the commanders/chiefs involved in making the relevant decisions imagine.

The worst thing in the battalion-brigade level of combat control is "to get off the ground"... What in military language is called "...not to be in control of the real situation." This applies to both the state of one's own troops and data "for the enemy."

And then a chain reaction begins ...

Based on formalized data that have little or no correspondence to the actual state of affairs, erroneous management decisions are made, corresponding, equally unfounded combat orders are formulated and issued, ultimately - losses that could have been avoided...

This does not mean that the brigade commander or battalion commander should crawl around observation posts on the front line every day or wander around the "strongholds" (although doing this from time to time clearly does not hurt). They must establish such a system of command (control), as well as reconnaissance and surveillance of the enemy (which, by the way, ALL management manuals and manuals define as a CONTINUOUS process), which would allow him at any time to accurately, without distortion, know the situation in the entire strip, area (on the site) of operations of the formation subordinate to him...

Yes, I understand ... it is difficult, you need to constantly work with people - explain, clarify. And if you have a whole bunch of subordinates under your command who "know better how to command" or have a "different point of view" on the process of carrying out a particular combat mission... then all this becomes even more burdensome.

But the thing is that the command system I mentioned above is based (or better to say, begins) with TRUST. If your subordinates trust you, then their reports will be real, and not drawn up.

There is no other way... As

experience shows, FEAR of punishment for "false reports" can achieve the desired effect (realism) only for a short period of time... and then - everything is new...

I emphasize once again...

The most durable and rigid "support" for increasing the level of realism in collecting data on the state of your own troops and assessing the state of enemy troops is TRUST in you on the part of your subordinates...

And each commander decides for himself how to achieve it...

And if he "forgets" about this matter,then it will ALWAYS be in the “empirics” (and accordingly make management decisions that are totally divorced from the real state of affairs).

Unfortunately, in war this ends with real, not imaginary, deaths...

 

[cesmonkey]

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/19888
 

Quote

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine informs about the departure of the commission headed by the head of the VSP to the area of responsibility of the 59th OMPBr

We will remind that before this, a number of messages from the relatives of the missing and a combat medic appeared on the network about the unprofessional decisions of the brigade commander, which led to the loss of personnel.

The 59th maintains a fairly wide range and has been reinforced by TrO units for a long time.

 

[cesmonkey]

https://t.me/operativnoZSU/151604
 

Quote

The SBI is investigating the circumstances of the death of a serviceman in Odesa during an attempt to illegally cross the border. On

July 14, 2024, in the Zakhariv district of Odesa region, four servicemen escaped from the training unit and tried to cross to the Republic of Moldova on foot. In order to get to the border, the fugitives hired a taxi.

During the attempt to cross the border, border guards noticed them and detained them. One of the fugitives attacked a border guard while trying to escape. In response, he used a service weapon and shot the attacker.

In a comment to Channel 24, the State Security Service said that they stopped a car with 5 passengers near the border with Moldova.

Two of them tried to escape, and then one of them attacked the border guard.

The serviceman was forced to defend himself and opened fire.

 

[cesmonkey]

Russian telegrammer Rybar:
https://t.me/rybar/61816
 

Quote

On the effectiveness of sanctions against the Russian shadow fleet

Recently, the American publication Bloomberg published an article about the alleged fact that 53 Russian tankers cannot go to sea because of sanctions. According to Western analysts, this indicates the effectiveness of the restrictions. But is this really so?

The shadow fleet is a completely new phenomenon that emerged after the start of the NWO and the introduction of comprehensive sanctions. At that time, a network of foreign shipping companies was quickly created. The goal is to conceal the origin of the vessels and their current nationality. This was done to comply with the formal requirements of the global shipping system.

According to the consulting company Windward , the gray fleet consists of 1,000 vessels, transporting about 2.6 million barrels per day. The dark fleet is even larger - up to 1,300 tankers.

The technical condition of many vessels leaves much to be desired, but they can be used to transport cargo on a short transport leg. Western analysts call them dark because such vessels operate with their transponders turned off.

In total, there are about 2,300 vessels. Yes, not all of them are technically sound 100% of the time, not all of them constantly have crews that must change and rest. Some of these vessels are also used to transport oil from Iran and Venezuela . But these are all working moments that exist in any corporation of comparable scale. The system itself works quite effectively. In essence, it is a huge shadow fleet that violates all sanctions restrictions, including those related to insurance.

But why then is the case of the blocking of 53 Russian courts actively covered in the media?

Bloomberg analysts cannot but know the above data, but proudly declare the blocking of 53 Russian courts.

The most likely reason is that such materials are initially made exclusively for the American audience , which is gradually deprived of objective sources of information. But due to the scale of the media empire, these articles are broadcast to the entire world.

Therefore, inconsistencies regularly arise, which are easily refuted even with the support of only foreign sources.

The second likely reason is to create the appearance of the Biden administration's effectiveness before the election, and to shift public attention away from rising gasoline prices . To support fuel prices , additional volumes are being sold off

from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve right now .

Thus, the situation is certainly far from dramatic for the Russian side. But this is not a reason to relax and think that it was possible to finally break the sanctions mechanism. A system that has virtually unlimited resources and adapts very quickly and flexibly is working against us.

The fact that Western analysts managed to determine a fairly accurate number of vessels involved in shadow deliveries speaks precisely of a systemic approach. This means that steps will follow aimed at this category of vessels.

Today, Windward and Vortexa have already prepared a report on the scale of the shadow fleet's activities. And it is highly likely that further steps will be taken based on this data. We must be prepared for this, constantly monitor the situation with our opponents and develop backup options for working in advance in conditions that will become more stringent over time.
#globalism #Russia #USA #economy
@rybar together with @econopocalypse

 

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

The future is AI targeting algorithms. You provide them with a search area and upload the ROE via cable inside your base, then let them fly.

Or are you suggesting EW strong enough to knock out the onboard electronics? 

There are easier methods to sterilize every man, woman and child in a 100 mile radius around your jammer than dosing them in microwaves, you know.

But at least people wouldn't need to have functioning gas or electricity to heat their homes or cook their food.

[panzermartin]

2 hours ago, Carolus said:

The future is AI targeting algorithms. You provide them with a search area and upload the ROE via cable inside your base, then let them fly.

Or are you suggesting EW strong enough to knock out the onboard electronics? 

There are easier methods to sterilize every man, woman and child in a 100 mile radius around your jammer than dosing them in microwaves, you know.

I think the completely autonomous AI drones have still some way to be effective /safe and then this will be the next phase in development/counter measures 

But for now, they rely on human operators from far faaaar away. 

I can see the military taking dramatic measures if nothing else works, including dangerous, almost nuclear EW, provided that they don't fry their own troops. 

[chrisl]

14 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I think the completely autonomous AI drones have still some way to be effective /safe and then this will be the next phase in development/counter measures 

But for now, they rely on human operators from far faaaar away. 

I can see the military taking dramatic measures if nothing else works, including dangerous, almost nuclear EW, provided that they don't fry their own troops. 

We've already had this discussion a few times, I think, in various forms.

If you turn on an EW system with enough power to interfere with everybody (or anybody, really), you can be sure that the next things that come across the line are anti-radiation missiles/drones/spiders/roboducks because a) you just broke everybody's radios, including your own, and b) you put up a giant target that's literally screaming "shoot me first!", like Daffy Duck.  Somebody is going to take that bait and shoot your EW.

Once it's blown up everybody can go back to their regularly scheduled droning.

But automation is going to happen anyway.  And it already has.  It's been pointed out here, and also in the Watling interview that was posted a week or so ago, that autonomous weapons have been in use for ages.  The most common one is landmines, and they're essentially completely indiscriminate.  So if you have something like a drone that you can toss onto an opposing army in a region where you can be confident that there are few innocents, the target selection doesn't need to be all that picky for people to be willing to use it and claim that it's acceptable under the LOAC.

Edited July 15 by chrisl

[Carolus]

45 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Russian telegrammer Rybar:
https://t.me/rybar/61816
 

 

The numbers from Rybar can be found in Western sources as well. 

It is quite clear that the economic sanctions here are ineffective. 

It is not even a "Russia-specific" problem. This shows it is entirely possible to do large scale maritime smuggling without any international interference. 

I think only Ukraine has successfully interfered here, detaining a single Russian grain freighter that happened to cross the waters of Odessa this year. 

[Carolus]

Short video from a Ukrainian FPV training center.

 

 

[Carolus]

No news about the Ukrainian "V1" missile for a long while. I assume the project was never picked up by the government.

But interstingly a pulsed jet engine was developed by an American company and the university of Maryland, specifically for drones.

 https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240709455523/en/

The finished J1 engine is for drones up 90kg, the K1 (in development) will be able to propel ca. 540kg. 

I wonder if Ukraine will get to test some of the early series models. These should be harder to intercept than mopeds. On the other hand, Ukraine needs mass to swarm Russian refineries and power plants each month.