How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

OK, I am calling a stop to the debate about tanks.  It is one guy against everybody else and, honestly, I don't think anybody is listening to each other at the moment.  In my view it's because the one guy arguing in favor of tanks, ArmouredTopHat, is arguing that the tanks are not dead because they are still being made, the other side is arguing that they are dead because the evidence strongly suggests they should not be made.

I want this discussion to stop because ArmouredTopHat has failed to introduce anything into this discussion that hasn't been presented before, either by him or others.  Since those who think the tank is dead aren't going to change their position without a strong counter argument, which thus far has not materialized, there's little point in carrying on without one.

So let's get back to talking about the war where there's something new to learn.

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In my view it's because the one guy arguing in favor of tanks, ArmouredTopHat, is arguing that the tanks are not dead because they are still being made, the other side is arguing that they are dead because the evidence strongly suggests they should not be made.

A little unfair to imply that was all I was saying, but fair enough. I was getting fed up with the way some people were debating at this point anyway. 
 

In better news, the UK general election finally purged Galloway and his frankly disgusting views regarding Ukraine from sight. 

[Carolus]

24 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

A little unfair to imply that was all I was saying, but fair enough. I was getting fed up with the way some people were debating at this point anyway. 
 

In better news, the UK general election finally purged Galloway and his frankly disgusting views regarding Ukraine from sight. 

While that is good, these people were not really significant for national policy.

We have to watch out for the USA, our newest monarchy in NATO, as well as the elections in France and Germany.

I heard some hope that LePen will undergo a "Melonisation" since the Italian prime minister has significantly mellowed after taking office and is supporting Ukraine both rethorically and with military supplies. There are some indications for this "softening" since LePen and Meloni refuse to work with the German AfD in the EU parliament, but the Rassemblement National could still delay French support for Ukraine via its parliamentary seats - and only some months after Macron and his team of advisors finally rediscovered Cold War diplomacy ("Pretend to carry a big stick and the will to use it instead of groveling in front of dictators at every verbal opportunity").

The AfD and the new stalinist/ strasserist BSW are very successful in some German states and are pushing really hard pro-Russia stances. By winning state elections they could influence German politics via the "Senate" equivalent in German legislation even if the main parliamentary elections are still some ways out.

However, the AfD is so radical that is  possible the party might face legal ramification for their unconstitutional policies. That would effectively destroy at least ten years of Russian funding and networking in the middle of Europe in one swipe. But such a legal process would also take years, since it is a very delicate constitutional matter to outlaw a political party.

The Ukrainian FPV manufacturing sector and their domestic weapons industry (with joint ventures with Western companies) would likely enable Ukraine to put up a fight, but especially US support drying up would make the life of Ukrainians much harder since Patriot interceptors and lots of general supplies come mainly from the US and won't be replaced by any European effort in a while, especially since the EU has to wrestle with the Hungarian veto at every corner.

Edited Friday at 06:09 AM by Carolus

[Carolus]

Who could have possibly foreseen this after the Russians murdered several people on Western soil?

 

 

[ArmouredTopHat]

4 minutes ago, Carolus said:

Who could have possibly foreseen this after the Russians murdered several people on Western soil?

 

 

Do we know for certain that these are Russian sabotage operations? Its a little concerning if so how readily they are actively mucking around with our defence industries. Figured we need to really crack down on this before it enables worse flagrant violations. 

[TheVulture]

35 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

In better news, the UK general election finally purged Galloway and his frankly disgusting views regarding Ukraine from sight. 

Unfortunately Farage is now an MP, as are three more members of his party, and his views on Ukraine (and NATO) hit quite a lot of Russian talking points too.

[Carolus]

8 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Do we know for certain that these are Russian sabotage operations? Its a little concerning if so how readily they are actively mucking around with our defence industries. Figured we need to really crack down on this before it enables worse flagrant violations. 

No, at least not on my civilian paygrade.

But there have been incidents akin to this all over Europe and European nations have arrested several people who are either Russian expats or had contact with the FSB for planning bomb attack, spying on military installations or committing arson on armament producers. 

Just recently a fire at a building of Diehl, a manufacturer of radar systems and the IRIS-T AD system, was ascribed to Russian sabotage, though in true Russian fashion they picked the wrong building (the engineering department for IRIS-T had been moved a few months earlier).

Edited Friday at 06:28 AM by Carolus

[Letter from Prague]

Russia has been running the sabotage and murder campaign for a while now. There was no response from the West (because nukes and escalation I'm sure) and there will be no response from the West either. We are ineffectual cowards unwilling to defend ourselves.

Now one thing I wonder - can the NATO provided weapons Ukraine got be turned off remotely? I was thinking how does Trump plan to "stop the war" and remotely deactivating Ukraine's air defenses, and providing the US ISR to Russia instead of Ukraine would probably work. Unless he just orders the US military to start firing cruise missiles at Kyiv, that is.

Moreover, will our F-35s stop working when Russia decides to attack Baltic states?

[ArmouredTopHat]

14 minutes ago, Carolus said:

No, at least not on my civilian paygrade.

But there have been incidents akin to this all over Europe and European nations have arrested several people who are either Russian expats or had contact with the FSB for planning bomb attack, spying on military installations or committing arson on armament producers. 

Just recently a fire at a building of Diehl, a manufacturer of radar systems and the IRIS-T AD system, was ascribed to Russian sabotage, though in true Russian fashion they picked the wrong building (the engineering department for IRIS-T had been moved a few months earlier).

I suppose it shows their desperation more than anything, that they are willing to expend their foreign agents in high risk sabotage operations to try and disrupt vital aid. Ill be curious what shadowy games are being played between the FSB and NATO intelligence services and if we will ever hear of them in our lifetimes. 

[chrisl]

6 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Russia has been running the sabotage and murder campaign for a while now. There was no response from the West (because nukes and escalation I'm sure) and there will be no response from the West either. We are ineffectual cowards unwilling to defend ourselves.

Now one thing I wonder - can the NATO provided weapons Ukraine got be turned off remotely? I was thinking how does Trump plan to "stop the war" and remotely deactivating Ukraine's air defenses, and providing the US ISR to Russia instead of Ukraine would probably work. Unless he just orders the US military to start firing cruise missiles at Kyiv, that is.

Moreover, will our F-35s stop working when Russia decides to attack Baltic states?

Seems like that would rate kind of high in the "bad idea" department - it would mean that an adversary that finds a hole (either technical or socially engineered) could just shut down a NATO defense.

Edited Friday at 06:53 AM by chrisl

[Peregrine]

Would be assuming that this is an industrial accident. Zero evidence for a pretty extraordinary claim of international infrastructure destruction.

[Carolus]

44 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

I suppose it shows their desperation more than anything, that they are willing to expend their foreign agents in high risk sabotage operations to try and disrupt vital aid. Ill be curious what shadowy games are being played between the FSB and NATO intelligence services and if we will ever hear of them in our lifetimes. 

These people are overwhelmingly not valuable assets for Russia. 

These are ordinary people, sometimes with a Russian background, sometimes not, who are willing to throw together an IED in exchange for a few thousand eurobucks. Sometimes they have a bit of political motivation, but mostly it's just hired hooligans. No qualified agents are being burned through these actions.

 

35 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

Would be assuming that this is an industrial accident. Zero evidence for a pretty extraordinary claim of international infrastructure destruction.

Yes, you are right. It is important to not jump to conclusions. But let's stay on our toes. 

Edited Friday at 07:36 AM by Carolus

[Ts4EVER]

Considering our crumbling infrastructure, thanks to decades of neoliberalism, you don't need some James Bondovich to destroy anything... If any Russian military people are reading this: Want to lock down Germany for a week? All you need are 4 civilian trucks with white wax, then spill that stuff at 4 strategic points on the autobahn.

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, Ts4EVER said:

Considering our crumbling infrastructure, thanks to decades of neoliberalism, you don't need some James Bondovich to destroy anything... If any Russian military people are reading this: Want to lock down Germany for a week? All you need are 4 civilian trucks with white wax, then spill that stuff at 4 strategic points on the autobahn.

And do it on a Sunday ... I've experienced major obstructions on German Autobahns for the simple reason that the work crews shut down all except one lane on Saturday night and left it that way ...

Edited Friday at 09:54 AM by paxromana

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Do we know for certain that these are Russian sabotage operations

No, that post explicitly says

Quote

While the cause is unknown, there is a pattern of incidents at other munitions plants in the US & Europe. This has lead to speculation of Russian sabotage being responsible for these explosions.

While I wouldn't rule out Russian sabotage, workplace accidents, even lethal ones, happen frequently. They are the reason for many oh so evil regulations and blaming the Russians does sound a bit like a cheap excuse.

If we are speculating, the first question should be if this "pattern" actually exists. Meaning: Has the rate of incidents in Western defense related industry increased, compared to, say, pre-war rates. Next question then is: If so, are those incidents related to ramping up production? New production lines or even facilities, especially when built quickly, invariably lead to more accidents.

And let's not forget, even if Russia is to blame for some of those incidents, it doesn't mean they are responsible for all or even the majority of them.

[Monty's Mighty Moustache]

Orban playing at peacemaker? Or are the Hungarians getting into bed with the belligerent nations again? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cml29r8d2zxo

MMM

[Carolus]

 

 

Some comments from ThalesGroup on the role of drones. Western procurement is slow, change is reluctant, industry is expensive, but people are taking notes.

 

 

 

 

Edited Friday at 11:18 AM by Carolus

[The_Capt]

10 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

LOL.  As we say in consulting, 'pay peanuts, get monkeys'

I found out this spring that my private sector daily rate is 750-1000 per day (depending what we are talking about). Now that is not even close to high end, pretty much just respectable. But of course I am here playing internet reindeer games for free, like a rube.

[hcrof]

I for one was getting sick of circular bickering over tanks (despite being very interested in the debate) so I am glad Steve put a stop to it. The tone by some especially was getting rather rude and I would prefer an "agree to disagree" situation where no progress is being made, considering there is no need to have the final word here in the casual context of an internet forum. 

Having said that, I hope I don't annoy Steve by recommending the following video:

It is Watling again, but his focus is different to the previous video and his discussion touches on just about everything we talk about on this forum. He talks about force structure and armour, including the utility of heavy Vs light, and links it to examples from the war. He also talks a lot about sensors, drones, EW and artillery as a package and what they can and can't do. It really is very good!

[acrashb]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I found out this spring that my private sector daily rate is 750-1000 per day (depending what we are talking about).

Adjusted for inflation, those are late 1990's rates for a good database administrator.  I would hope your subject matter expertise and resume would pull in more, at least as a contractor.  If you're talking full time employment, maybe not.

5 hours ago, Carolus said:

Yes, you are right. It is important to not jump to conclusions. But let's stay on our toes. 

Russia can’t fight NATO on the battlefield – so it’s waging a hybrid war instead | CNN

With this helpful graphic:

[keas66]

If only Sarcastosaurus had a daily thread .

[Tenses]

9 minutes ago, acrashb said:

Adjusted for inflation, those are late 1990's rates for a good database administrator.  I would hope your subject matter expertise and resume would pull in more, at least as a contractor.  If you're talking full time employment, maybe not.

Don't want to make off topic but 750 is 2024 rate for average Indian DBA. Actually this is contractor company rate so for  DBA it is in a range of 500.

Per month.

Welcome to globalisation.

[cesmonkey]

 

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, chrisl said:

Seems like that would rate kind of high in the "bad idea" department - it would mean that an adversary that finds a hole (either technical or socially engineered) could just shut down a NATO defense.

That and what customer would want to spend billions on weapons from the US only to have someone with orange skin turn them off on a whim?  Nobody.  So no, I would say categorically there is no such thing built into US weapons.  It's not needed either since the US could always restrict spare parts, upgrades, and/or ammo.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 hours ago, Peregrine said:

Would be assuming that this is an industrial accident. Zero evidence for a pretty extraordinary claim of international infrastructure destruction.

I agree.  Due to the rapid expansion of munitions production across a broad spectrum of types and countries, it's just as likely that these are accidents related to new staff, equipment, procedures, etc. being rushed into place.

That said, I am sure some of these things are not accidents.  There's some evidence of this in Bulgarian and Czech Republic IIRC, there are intercepts that the Russians are interested in these sorts of ops, they certainly are capable of doing them, and it's logical for them to do this sort of thing.

Just a couple pages ago I said we should be prepared for Russia tilting more towards terrorist state behavior as things get worse and worse for them.  Sabotage related to Ukraine aid should be expected.

Steve