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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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11 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

One theorie from the thread below:

If Russian airlines are anything like Russian military; the higher-ups have been embezzling maintenance funds for decades & the cash flow has stopped for quick repairs.

 

 

We probably still don't fully realize how deep the corruption goes in there and how just barely functional they've kept everything - finding that balance between stealing all the money and leaving just enough for stuff to work in between any purchases. Which, naturally, is completely thrown off now.

Edited by kraze
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

John, I'm giving you a chance to delete your post as it probably was being written when the warnings were made.  If you do not, then it's vacation time for you.

Steve

Steve,

Was current when I left the house and am now pages behind after being barely back home. Have checked all my CW posts and found I can delete none, so if they're an issue with you and since it's your board, am afraid you or one of the Mods will have to remove them. Got dinged by one of the Forumites about not providing any sources in one of the earlier ones, so went to heavy documentation later. Sorry so many people consider this topic Russian disinformation. In any event, I shan't be posting further on this, per your and BFCElvis's requests. Would really hate to be sent on vacation with things again heating up!

Regards,

John Kettler

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10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

On both videos 7 tanks, 2 MTLB, 1 BREM-1 and TOR.

 

Yep saw the other vid about them sticking in the mud also. None of them knocked out, all abandoned. UA allegedly recovered them and hopefully can make good use of them. Imagine basically 1 Coy abandons its material and is deserting the battlefield.

Here is the other vid, the second one in the tweet:

 

 

Edited by DesertFox
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4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Current news form the war briefly:

Russians made a probe to cross Irpin' river and meliorative canals around it and entered to Moshchun village - east from Hostomel. UKR forces couner-attacked and turned village back.

Reportedly near Kharkiv another Russian column of fresh reinforcements was ambushed. 

Near Mykolaiv this night our aviation hit enemy supply convoy on the way from Kherson. Russian troops near Mykolaiv reportedly exhausted and turn to defense in seized villages, expecting more supply and reinforcements. There are Marines of Baltic fleet and additional BTG of 7th air-assault (mountain) divison is coming from Crimea.

Russian landing ships group sailed from Odesa area back to Western Crimea. But one Russian ship patrols on horizon of Odesa and even made five shots with a gun at unknown direction.

General Staff reported a battalion of Iskander-M wiped out in Chernihiv oblast. Too doubt to belive, maybe Tochka-U and not a battalion... Let's see

 

 

Haiduk,

Your "meliorative canals" sent me to multiple sites which I read closely and still don't understand properly. The closest I got was the below and how to translate the term into French! Please explain what you mean by that term, because I still don't understand it.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.3103/S1068367416020117

On a separate note, that decorated Ukrainian ATG guy HAS to be the single most ATGM experienced person on the whole planet. If possible, please provide a breakdown on missiles fired, at what and targets destroyed.

Regards,

John Kettler

Edited by John Kettler
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1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

Yep saw the other vid about them sticking in the mud also. None of them knocked out, all abandoned. UA allegedly recovered them and hopefully can make good use of them. Imagine basically 1 Coy abandons its material and is deserting the battlefield.

No, at least three tanks destroyed (one with the teared off turret), some fallen trees and branches can see aroud lika after the strike. Soldier tells at the end of second video: "here the damaged TOR stands near the white car"

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18 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

One theorie from the thread below:

If Russian airlines are anything like Russian military; the higher-ups have been embezzling maintenance funds for decades & the cash flow has stopped for quick repairs.

 

Four out of the five planes mentioned are leased planes from Boeing and Airbus, which very likely have stringent contracts for maintenance that would make embezzling much more difficult. Though Russia is perhaps considering allowing outside firms to maintain airliners, which would be a different matter, especially without ready access to spare parts.

 

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1 minute ago, Haiduk said:

No, at least three tanks destroyed (one with the teared off turret), some fallen trees and branches can see aroud lika after the strike. Soldier tells at the end of second video: "here the damaged TOR stands near the white car"

So both vids show different occasions? Anyways the material in the second vid is all abandoned and recovered by UA.

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13 minutes ago, John Kettler said:

Your "meliorative canals" sent me to multiple sites which I read closely and still don't understand properly.

Hm... But there is English word for this. Floodplain of Irpin' river hystorically was swampy, so in post-war Soviet times with swamp terrains struggled with special meliorative canals, which bypassed the water from the swamps to the rivers. This allowed to dry the terrain at least partilaly. You can find WWII time map of the same place and see the difference.

Edited by Haiduk
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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

  

I didn't see these posted yet.  Sorry if I missed them.  Ukrainian infantry on the counter attack:

 

Steve,

The top one is the first real infantry infantry  video I've seen from this invasion. And in it and the second one you can't miss a big black thing the two men (same guy?) have slung on theirbacks/his back? Is that a Panzerfaust 3. If not, what is it, please? Are the guys in the second vid an armor killing squad? They sure seem to be loader for bear (ha!) on that score--more heavily armed than those German squads where every man had a Panzerfaust.

Regards,

John Kettler

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5 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Hm... But there is English word for this. Floodplain of Irpin' river hystorically was swampy, so in post-war Soviet times with swamp terrains struggled with special meliorative canals, which bypassed the water from the swamps to the rivers. This allowed to dry the terrain at least partilaly. You can find WWII type map of the same place and see the difference.

"Drainage channels" or "drainage ditches" sounds like it would fit as a translation,  although there might be a more technical term. 

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2 hours ago, sburke said:

Apple, IKEA, among companies Russia considers nationalizing (msn.com)

How do you nationalize Apple in Russia?  I could kind of understand China taking over the production facility there, but what is Russia going to do?  Take over the genius bar?

sburke,

That crack about taking over the genius bar was hilarious and cracked me up.

Regards,

John Kettler

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@John Kettler

John, meliorative essentially means "harm reduction", which implies canals for reducing flood damage or redirecting flood waters. So, canals to maintain/return the water table in the event of flooding.

In farming these aren't very deep and are really about spreading/directing the water away so that it doesnt build up into a deep flood - i.e. keep it moving. Large scale flood plains engineering can get quite large - some German drainage canals are functionally transport canals due to their size, which is linked to the size of the Rhine et al.

We had similar small versions on my family farm; it was ridiculously easy to get a tractor bogged in them. There was even an incident in my childhood of a neighbor's tractor getting bogged down, and then the "Rescue Tractor" getting bogged down until finally a Backhoe had to build a mini road with large gravel/rocks to get in and free the Rescue Tractor. This thoroughly trashed the ground so then the Backhoe had to build another mini road from a different angle to get to the first tractor.

It then took the Backhoe and very soon also the rescued Rescue Tractor several hours to suck that m-fer out of the ditch. It was c. 11pm before the first tractor was finally out. Its front angle was ruined and the engine clogged with mud. 

This was in Ireland, with farmers deeply familiar with wet soggy ground and its perils.

And no one was shooting missiles at us.

Its great that there's more snow and ice in UKR now - when it melts in the next few days/week it'll really and truly f*ck the RUS mobility off-road for even longer.

Edited by Kinophile
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10 minutes ago, TheVulture said:

"Drainage channels" or "drainage ditches" sounds like it would fit as a translation,  although there might be a more technical term. 

My google translator shows me a word "meliorative" :) But maybe English term is exactly "drainage canal"

Edited by Haiduk
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Re the infantry video above - at the start of every single CMBS game I load up my UKR inf (I only play UKR) with every damn AT weapon I can find.

I don't care that it makes them slower (should it, realistically?) because I've found that every 3rd man needs to have an AT weapon or they're just useless cannon fodder.

Inf without AT I just hold back and use as spotters/rear security.

 

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10 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

2nd vid by OSINTdefender.

OSINTdefender videos are from different places and the second is a part2 of the video from Mokrytsi. The first one probably from Sumy or Poltava oblast, where 4th GTD with T-80U is operating. 

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Chinese, american and russian travel on a train.


Chinese pulls out an iphone13, plays with it for a bit then throws it out of the window. 
Everybody else: but why?
Chinese: meh, I have lots of this **** at home.


American then drinks half of his Starbucks cup of coffee and throws the rest out of the window.
Everybody else: but why?
American: meh, I have lots of this **** at home.


Russian then silently throws out of a window:
Personnel - 12000
Combat airplanes - 49
Helicopters - 81
Tanks - 335
APCs - 1107
Air defence pcs - 61
Artillery pcs - 120
Transport vehicles - 544

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#osinttechnical:

This is one of the major issues Russia is running into. They are using heavily mechanized formations to try and break through largely infantry based Ukrainian forces.

That difference in force format seems to be the fundamental factor between the two armies - UKR is motivated and trained enough to fight operationally dispersed, RUS arm is strait-jacketed by out of date training, rigid leadership and self-defeating goals.

I've a half-made UKR campaign still sitting around somewhere, about a UKR retreat under constant RUS mechanised attack, and I do remember noticing how AT infantry were utterly vital to stalling the pursuit. BTRs were useful but it was flooding my infantry with AT weapons that really did the damage.

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