How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Letter from Prague]

Wow, I spend week away on a business trip and it took like three days to catch  up!

I have a question about ATACMS. There's people saying that one of the reasons GMLRS is so effective is that it is hard to AD against - it is small and fast, and maybe cheaper / more plentiful than AD missiles.

Would ATACMS not be much larger, important and easier to intercept target?

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, sburke said:

Tanks, more artillery.  Fk just open the faucet and send everything they have.  Tell Putin "no gas?  No reason to worry anymore then about the weapons we send." 

Oh, it can be more than that.  Why would it be just limited to what Germany could do for Ukraine directly?  Why not get on the phone to allies to help out.  Even to the point of paying for things or giving an ally something else of value.

Russia is running out of options, for sure.  Not only does shutting off the gas to Germany do nothing to help them win the war in Ukraine, it just finalized the argument by Europe that they should never do business with Russia again.  Russia is losing revenue now and for as long as Russia is an autocratic state.  And after that, guess what?  Russia will have to work very hard to win back European customers.  That is going to be very expensive for Russia, likely including mandates that the energy sector be completely independent of government control.

It's like Putin sat down last year and decided to ensure that Russia goes down in flames and isn't rebuilt until long after he's dead.  If this was what Putin really did then I'd revise my opinion of him from idiot to genius.  Because he certainly is ruining Russia with exceptional speed and thoroughness.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

We will see - I can still imagine Germany turning around and starting to talk about ceasefire in few weeks.

But the timing of this - on anniversary of MH17, right after another heavily medialized terror bombing / warcrime and a like a week after Russia appeared to be losing ammo dumps in hude explosions left and right due to HIMARS - really shows typical Russian strategic planning.

[Beleg85]

Curious, can anybody confirm it? Would it be the first time Ukrainians actually tried to target high rank Russian civil official; Kiriyenko even was for short time prime minister during Yeltsin times.

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It's like Putin sat down last year and decided to ensure that Russia goes down in flames and isn't rebuilt until long after he's dead.  If this was what Putin really did then I'd revise my opinion of him from idiot to genius.  Because he certainly is ruining Russia with exceptional speed and thoroughness.

Amen to that.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Beleg85

[Huba]

58 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

what consequences could Germany apply?  Send more weapons to Ukraine?  

In the short term there will be a nasty shock to energy market and prices, which Putin hopes will turn public opinion his way.  In the longer term, Germany and EU will find different oil suppliers and speed up alternative energy assets.  But in the short term Putin loses some money but causes big headaches to allies of Ukraine. 

Getting out there and condemning Putin in very harsh words would be a good start. Weapons are of course a no brainer, but how about declaring that if NS is not operational, they'll start dismantling it? Or making it known that various German machinery RU operates ( in mining industry?) might soon stop working due to lack of maintenance, or will need a software update that won't come? If you want to hit the dog, you'll surely find a stick, as a Polish proverb says... 

[akd]

Previously it was reported that Russia was drawing from sailors and other elements of the Northern Fleet to reconstitute the Northern Fleet's 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade that was devastated in the first phase of the war.  Seems the Brigade has been recommitted on the Kharkiv front with specially-trained underwater teams used as infantry replacements.  Here a recently captured platoon commander (probably Sr. Lt.) of the 140th Detachment to Combat Underwater Sabotage Forces and Means from the Northern Fleet base at Vidyaevo talks about the disintegration of his unit:

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/ПДСС

Edited July 18, 2022 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

Previously it was reported that Russia was drawing from sailors and other elements of the Northern Fleet to reconstitute the Northern Fleet's 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade that was devastated in the first phase of the war.  Seems the Brigade has been recommitted on the Kharkiv front with specially-trained underwater teams used as infantry replacements.  Here a recently captured commander (probably Sr. Lt.) of the 140th Separate Detachment for Underwater Sabotage Forces and Means from the Northern Fleet base at Vidyaevo talks about the disintegration of his unit:

 

From a reminder of Schlottman's documentation, in mid May the 200th was moved from Belgorod (where it was rebuilding) into Kharkiv Oblast to stop the Ukrainian counter attack.  As far as I know it's still there.

The most interesting thing this guy said was that his unit was "setup and deceived by the commanders".  I interpret this to mean that they were pushed to take a location that the commanders had little confidence could be held, but felt needed to be taken anyway.  Pressure from senior commanders to secure a location on a map without knowing/caring about feasibility?

Steve

[womble]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

what consequences could Germany apply?  Send more weapons to Ukraine?  

They could get behind a more comprehensive sanctions package and push. "Nothing in, nothing out; penalties on nations that bust the package" kinda thing. Along with help for alternative suppliers of staple foods and agrochem feedstock.

[billbindc]

There's been a drum beat of "time is running out for us" language out of Fareed Zacharia, and others in US media. This clearly activated Fiona Hill and others to respond and it's a message folks on this forum will understand completely:

https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/14/putin-russia-war-fiona-hill-future-west-nato/

[poesel]

About Russia cutting gas to Germany: I do not doubt that the news is legit, but that letter is not a sure sign of what really is going to happen on Thursday.
I checked the German news sites, and neither the serious nor the tabloids carry that piece as of now. I guess they wait for a second source.
The political reaction will probably none until Tuesday, and then I guess the weekend will decide what happens if there is no more gas.

As others have already stated, it would be an extremely stupid move to cut off the gas completely because then there is no reason anymore for Germany to hold back. With the current track record, that doesn't mean it's not going to happen, though.

My expectation would be that Russia would continue with its 40% delivery, which is just not enough but better than nothing. That would put some pressure on us not to go full out.

[Battlefront.com]

Good graphic to shows the area ATACMS can reach out and touch.  It clearly shows how thoroughly screwed Russia is if Ukraine has access to significant numbers of them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/w1wb3m/if_ukraine_is_given_atacms_missiles_for_himars/

 

[sburke]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good graphic to shows the area ATACMS can reach out and touch.  It clearly shows how thoroughly screwed Russia is if Ukraine has access to significant numbers of them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/w1wb3m/if_ukraine_is_given_atacms_missiles_for_himars/

 

would love Ukraine to be supplied with them and then announce.  Next Russian missile barrage on a UK city will be responded to with a strike on Russian territory.  Where is that training base previously mentioned?  Is it in range?

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

There's been a drum beat of "time is running out for us" language out of Fareed Zacharia, and others in US media. This clearly activated Fiona Hill and others to respond and it's a message folks on this forum will understand completely:

https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/14/putin-russia-war-fiona-hill-future-west-nato/

That first link has some good stuff in it, even if the author is somewhat "controversial".

We've been focused on ammunition so much lately that we seem to have forgotten that this is a two way race between Russia running out of ammo and running out of barrels.  Because an army needs both in order to fling death and destruction onto the enemy. 

A quote from the article:

Quote

“The barrels wear out quickly, faster than the factory parameters, because either the steel is worthless, or they are made with a violation of technology. There is almost nothing to replace them now, because there are few new trunks. Near Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, at some point, one of the three guns worked for us. And it looks like it will get worse in the future,” says the Russian artilleryman.

We've been assuming that the apparent slowdown of Russian shelling (borne out by FIRMS data) is related to a combo of "Operational Pause" and running low on ammo due to depot losses.  However, it could be some of it is due to some artillery having to be pulled offline for refitting.

I wish we knew what the general state of Russian serviceable reserve barrels is.  My gut instinct is that there's probably more difficulty keeping artillery pieces in the field than keeping them fed with ammo.

Steve

[Huba]

8 minutes ago, sburke said:

would love Ukraine to be supplied with them and then announce.  Next Russian missile barrage on a UK city will be responded to with a strike on Russian territory.  Where is that training base previously mentioned?  Is it in range?

If they get ATACMS, Sevastopol and Crimea bridge are toast no matter what. What could be threatened are strikes on Novorossyisk and Tuapse with PrSM - initial batch was already delivered to US Army this year. Then BSF could either operate from yacht port in Sochi, the only remaining RU port out of range or run away up the Volga ( but not the subs...). I'm on a way to buy some popcorn... 

Edited July 18, 2022 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, sburke said:

would love Ukraine to be supplied with them and then announce.  Next Russian missile barrage on a UK city will be responded to with a strike on Russian territory.  Where is that training base previously mentioned?  Is it in range?

Waaaaaaay to the east of Moscow.  Not surprisingly, Russia didn't put a base like that in the traditional invasion path.  If this base is threatened Moscow has already fallen, so not really important at that point.

Steve

[Haiduk]

21 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I don't know where you get the CEP figures for those from

Here about 500 m CEP of Kh-22M/MA generation in comparison with Kh-22 generation: https://military.wikireading.ru/hOIyKWeQCi 

Missiles of second generation little outwardly changed, but with enchanced homing system CEP of Kh-22MA reduced from 1000 m to 500 m, and the speed increased up to 4265 km/h

And here about CEP of Kh-22N/NA: https://topwar.ru/37561-krylataya-raketa-h-22.html

The feature, of missiles, adopted in the mid of 70th became new homing systems. They maintained significantly better accuracy of hit. So, CEP of Kh-22N didn't exceed several dozens meters. 

[The_Capt]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good graphic to shows the area ATACMS can reach out and touch.  It clearly shows how thoroughly screwed Russia is if Ukraine has access to significant numbers of them.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/w1wb3m/if_ukraine_is_given_atacms_missiles_for_himars/

 

This is bigger than munitions dumps at these ranges; railheads, industry, IT infrastructure and airfields as a start.  We are basically looking at ersatz air superiority effects without the need of aircraft, at strategic ranges.  And again, we know western ISR can see all those targets.

[billbindc]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That first link has some good stuff in it, even if the author is somewhat "controversial".

We've been focused on ammunition so much lately that we seem to have forgotten that this is a two way race between Russia running out of ammo and running out of barrels.  Because an army needs both in order to fling death and destruction onto the enemy. 

A quote from the article:

We've been assuming that the apparent slowdown of Russian shelling (borne out by FIRMS data) is related to a combo of "Operational Pause" and running low on ammo due to depot losses.  However, it could be some of it is due to some artillery having to be pulled offline for refitting.

I wish we knew what the general state of Russian serviceable reserve barrels is.  My gut instinct is that there's probably more difficulty keeping artillery pieces in the field than keeping them fed with ammo.

Steve

Everyone talks about the 1917 Spring Offensive as Brezinski does, but I wonder if what we are seeing will be more like the Kaisershlacht in the West in 1918. This Russian Army is not quite the shambles of the Czarist one of 1917 and it is more in the situation of the Germany in 1918. The enemy is getting stronger, trade sanctions are quickly going to wreck the ability to fight on the home front and what qualitative advantages its armed forces enjoyed earlier in the war are being overtaken by the technology and training being brought to bear against it. So, it has been attempting to militarily force a cessation of hostilities through an offensive that is doing little but consuming combat power for no real gain. Is the end similar? Maybe. But it gets there in a different way with other options for the post war situation.

[Huba]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Everyone talks about the 1917 Spring Offensive as Brezinski does, but I wonder if what we are seeing will be more like the Kaisershlacht in the West in 1918. This Russian Army is not quite the shambles of the Czarist one of 1917 and it is more in the situation of the Germany in 1918. The enemy is getting stronger, trade sanctions are quickly going to wreck the ability to fight on the home front and what qualitative advantages its armed forces enjoyed earlier in the war are being overtaken by the technology and training being brought to bear against it. So, it has been attempting to militarily force a cessation of hostilities through an offensive that is doing little but consuming combat power for no real gain. Is the end similar? Maybe. But it gets there in a different way with other options for the post war situation.

The major difference is that RU is missing anything that could even remotely resemble the Stosstruppen... 

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, Huba said:

If they get ATACMS, Sevastopol and Crimea bridge are toast no matter what. What could be threatened are strikes on Novorossyisk and Tuapse with PrSM - initial batch was already delivered to US Army this year. Then BSF could either operate from yacht port in Sochi, the only remaining RU port out of range or run away up the Volga ( but not he subs...). I'm on a way to buy some popcorn... 

I'd prioritize the bridge to Kherson first.  Without that, Russia's got no chance of holding on west of the Dnepr.  However, Ukraine can target it without ATACMS.  For some reason Ukraine is holding back on it.  I just don't understand that.

Next thing on my list would be a major railyard or two in Russia.  They are so dependent upon rail transportation that laying waste to something like this (Belgorod) would likely have significant impact:

50.57861507521112, 36.6535580319228

I'd also keep a significant number at the ready to smash Russian industrial and infrastructure targets if Russia engages in a renewed terror war.  I'd stick to militarily defensible targets, but I'd select ones that are "dual purpose" that will cause hardship for the Russian people.

Oh, and I'd also love to do some WW2 style propaganda.  How about releasing a few million leaflets over Rostov or Kursk that says "Hey, we could have used HE like your leader does on our cities, but we didn't.  Please understand that we reserve the right to change our minds if you don't change Putin's."  That would make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside as I go all gooey at the thought of Psyops stuff

I'd also keep a bunch at the ready to take out any command gatherings.  Hell, I'd devote an entire launcher for that role.  With ATACMS one centralized launcher could hit any command center anywhere on or near Ukrainian terrain.

Smashing Sevastopol or the Kerch Bridge would be on my list, but only after doing some of these things.  Boil the frog concept.  Get Russians used to bad news and they would be more accepting of losing targets in Crimea.  Go with Crimea first and they might reactive more aggressively in response.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

12 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This is bigger than munitions dumps at these ranges; railheads, industry, IT infrastructure and airfields as a start.  We are basically looking at ersatz air superiority effects without the need of aircraft, at strategic ranges.  And again, we know western ISR can see all those targets.

Dang!  I posted while you typed this and I knew I was forgetting to put those on my short list.  AIRFIELDS!!  They are hard to take out of commission for very long, but that's if you target the runways only.  Taking out control towers, fuel storage, hangers, etc. is a lot better.  Even better still if you whack the airfield when there's a lot of aircraft sitting on the tarmac.  Look at how much fun Ukraine had with the Kherson airport!

In short, if I had these at my finger tips I would be focused on infrastructure that has strategic importance to Russia's military operations first, then go after more generalized targets (like Kerch) after.  Now, if I was given 500 ATACMS "after" would be probably within the first week of getting my hands on them   And since Russia can't move a bridge or a rail yard, it's not like you have to rush these sorts of attacks.

Steve

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Seems the Brigade has been recommitted on the Kharkiv front with specially-trained underwater teams used as infantry replacements.

Almost the same role played our seals from 73rd Maritime Special opeartions Center in 2014. Though, during Debaltsevo battle they worked in one episode by own speciality - they destroyed the dam on small river, conducting some underwater works. 

When our forces landed recently on Zmiinyi island, teams of 73rd MSOC and 801st  Detachment to Combat Underwater Sabotage Forces used micro-submarines to reach the shore and search approaches to the island for landing groups on Willard RIBs.

On the photo - this group before or after Zmiinyi landing - micro-submarine in right lower corner and Willard, armed with M2 behind them

Edited July 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

6 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

This retired UK Air Marshall is in favor of giving the Ukranians F-16s vs other Western types because:

1. There are plentiful numbers in reserve that wouldn't take away from existing Western capabilities.

2. They are relatively simple to operate. He speculates the Ukraines could be trained up to a minimum standard in 6 weeks.

I agree, unlike the fictional heroic aviator I named myself after in this part of the internet I have never flown a fighter jet.

But speaking as a DCS player the F-16 is definitely one of the easier modern fighter jets to learn to fly.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I'd prioritize the bridge to Kherson first.  Without that, Russia's got no chance of holding on west of the Dnepr.  However, Ukraine can target it without ATACMS.  For some reason Ukraine is holding back on it.  I just don't understand that.

Next thing on my list would be a major railyard or two in Russia.  They are so dependent upon rail transportation that laying waste to something like this (Belgorod) would likely have significant impact:

50.57861507521112, 36.6535580319228

I'd also keep a significant number at the ready to smash Russian industrial and infrastructure targets if Russia engages in a renewed terror war.  I'd stick to militarily defensible targets, but I'd select ones that are "dual purpose" that will cause hardship for the Russian people.

Oh, and I'd also love to do some WW2 style propaganda.  How about releasing a few million leaflets over Rostov or Kursk that says "Hey, we could have used HE like your leader does on our cities, but we didn't.  Please understand that we reserve the right to change our minds if you don't change Putin's."  That would make me feel all warm and fuzzy inside as I go all gooey at the thought of Psyops stuff

I'd also keep a bunch at the ready to take out any command gatherings.  Hell, I'd devote an entire launcher for that role.  With ATACMS one centralized launcher could hit any command center anywhere on or near Ukrainian terrain.

Smashing Sevastopol or the Kerch Bridge would be on my list, but only after doing some of these things.  Boil the frog concept.  Get Russians used to bad news and they would be more accepting of losing targets in Crimea.  Go with Crimea first and they might reactive more aggressively in response.

Steve

There is no reason to strike Russia with the first batch of ATACAMs. Drop the Kherson bridges. Smash the pontoon bridge they will surely try to build. Smash all the rail way infrastructure feeding Kupiansk, in and out. Smash all the ammo dumps they just moved. Then ask Russia if they want to see week two. If they were stupid enough to have submarines at dock in Crimea though I would give those anti missile defenses a little test. 

The Russians cut bait on Kyiv when it came down to that or lose. Maybe Putin will have a fatal headache if Ukraine can demonstrate the whole war is lost and every Russian soldier on the west side of the Dnipro might as well be a prisoner.

Edited July 18, 2022 by dan/california

[akd]

Hard to see, but looks like there is an operating AD system (Pantsir?) driving away from the HIMARS’d target:

 

Edited July 18, 2022 by akd