How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes, all of this.  It's been a while since we had this sort of discussion, so I'm glad it got brought up again.  It's important even if we can't see how it's playing out yet.

Putin has been whittling away the political power of the oligarchs for quite some time now.  At least 15 years (Yukos Oil was 2007).  I suppose they could still be important for a Putin usurper or if Putin were to suddenly die.  But I think more likely they will just sit back and let others fight for the job.  It is quite dangerous to make alliances when there's a better than good chance betrayal or discovery will happen before anything productive comes from it.

We've also discussed the tendency for autocratic regimes to consolidate too much power in one direction.  A one legged stool, so to speak.  It's not a stable state and it often leads to too much power being concentrated too close to the leader.  The security officials at the time know how powerful they are and, under the right conditions, decide that they'd be better off in charge.

It's been a long time since we had any indications anything like this was in the works.  Even when Priggy did his thing there wasn't a lot of overt support for him.  Though I still maintain the security services were complicit in some way.  Given how much of a loudmouth Priggy was it's impossible to believe that the security services were in the dark.

Anyhoo, no signs of a coup on the horizon, but at this point I don't think we'll see it coming if it happens.

Steve

 

At this point, I think it's pretty established that the brittle nature of the regime is its strongest support from a coup d'etat from within. Prigozhin's jaunt went further and faster than anyone expected which is why everyone who knew about it was happy to let him take his shot. What surprised them all I think (except perhaps for the national socialists like Girkin) were the clear signs that the Moscow population was going to be quite happy (at least initially) to see Putin tossed out and his boyars hung from the lamp posts. If your goal was to accrue power and set yourself up for the post Putin world, that is profoundly not what you were looking for. 

Where that leaves us today is that Putin remains the keystone in the span to power and nobody wants to remove any other bits (like the war) in case it drops them all into the abyss.

 

[The_Capt]

40 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks!  Haiduk posted some stills from this a few days ago, but I don't think that link had the video.  Crazy stuff.

Absolutely.  The last Bradley video posted here, where it was putting down suppressive fire along a row of houses, is something I commented on for that very same reason.  The difference is... you're thinking of a $10m monster that looks like this:

While I'm thinking this:
 

Steve

“$10 million”?!  The latest M1A2s are $24m a pop:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M1_Abrams

Is that T100 Orge shot from a new upcoming CM game?  (Totally going to start a rumour that BFC has teamed up with the Tom Clancy estate - Combat Mission: End War!)

 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

3 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Some utterly insane CQB fighting between a Bradley and a BTR. A little amazed this kind of close in fighting can still happen with the modern emphasis on range and the plethora of drone recon. While rare I do feel this is why having direct fire capability is still very valuable on the battlefield. 

Really interesting video, I have seen a lot of videos from this war but don't think I have ever seen one like that before. the first thought I had when I saw it was of armored knights jousting.

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 The difference is... you're thinking of a $10m monster that looks like this:

Or this.

The Lyrans know how to build some great tanks!

But as someone who has been following this thread for years, I have accepted that in the 31st century,we will not be fielding MBTs anymore.

 

Edited June 7 by Harmon Rabb

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Some utterly insane CQB fighting between a Bradley and a BTR. A little amazed this kind of close in fighting can still happen with the modern emphasis on range and the plethora of drone recon. While rare I do feel this is why having direct fire capability is still very valuable on the battlefield. 

Definitely intense and crazy, but isn’t this a bit of a self- confirming bias?  I mean if two sides are pushing IFVs at each other of course they are going to be seen using DF, those are the primary weapons on their main platforms.  If both sides sent out platoons armed with swords and we had video of them in a sword fight, it really isn’t evidence that swords are still applicable as a primary weapon (nod to the bayonet accepted).

I think DF will definitely still happen but it will happen more and more between an unmanned edge and after over the horizon fires have gone to work.  More to the point, direct fires are more likely going to be secondary fires, like we see in the maritime environment.  They can still happen but priority is on over the horizon systems.

If terrain is transparent and unmanned gives very long reach, land warfare is likely to evolve into something more akin to naval warfare.  Now naval warfare still has littorals and complex terrain (eg islands), which we will see in land warfare with urban areas.  But DF grudge fights are likely to happen less (as we have seen in this war) as land forces push engagement ranges much further out on an illuminated battlefield.

Edited June 7 by The_Capt

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

At this point, I think it's pretty established that the brittle nature of the regime is its strongest support from a coup d'etat from within. Prigozhin's jaunt went further and faster than anyone expected which is why everyone who knew about it was happy to let him take his shot. What surprised them all I think (except perhaps for the national socialists like Girkin) were the clear signs that the Moscow population was going to be quite happy (at least initially) to see Putin tossed out and his boyars hung from the lamp posts. If your goal was to accrue power and set yourself up for the post Putin world, that is profoundly not what you were looking for. 

Where that leaves us today is that Putin remains the keystone in the span to power and nobody wants to remove any other bits (like the war) in case it drops them all into the abyss.

 

The off ramp that everyone wants the Russians to take is starting to look narrower and narrower. The entire current regime is bound ever more tightly to both Putin and the war. There is no organized succession mechanism to speak off. Where do things go from here without either breaking the Russian army completely? Or throwing the Ukrainians under the bus?

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The off ramp that everyone wants the Russians to take is starting to look narrower and narrower. The entire current regime is bound ever more tightly to both Putin and the war. There is no organized succession mechanism to speak off. Where do things go from here without either breaking the Russian army completely? Or throwing the Ukrainians under the bus?

I don't think the contingencies are very obvious in situations like this. The German and Russian empires had no obvious paths in their death throes and even the final convulsions didn't look so very final until quite suddenly they were. We can and should expect everything and nothing. We don't have enough information to know.

Edited June 7 by billbindc

[Harmon Rabb]

Remember this thing? 

@Kraft

[Vanir Ausf B]

20 hours ago, Fenris said:

/Scurries off to learn about Mirage 2000's.  About all I know is there was a movie about 25 years ago with Mirages doing a long range strike into Africa, some very nice photography.

Anyone with insight want to share?

Justin Bronk is kinda "meh" on it.

__________

1) As much as I love the Mirage 2000-5, with Mica it offers limited air defence options for Ukraine in the face of overlapping Russian SAM and R-37M toting fighter threat picture. No more than F-16, at least.
Ukr brigade training in France is more useful!

2) Mirage 2000-5, limited to MICA air to air, lacks sufficient range to be effective against Russian fighters/strikers operating behind the very lethal Russian SAM network. Hence, I don’t think it’s currently worth the Ukrainian resources required to get it operational in theatre.

3) The obvious ‘direct’ replacement for the Su-24 would be the strike-oriented twin seat Mirage 2000D, not the air-to-air focused single seat Mirage 2000-5.

https://x.com/Justin_Br0nk/status/1798801557473120408

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

“$10 million”?!  The latest M1A2s are $24m a pop:

Good point!  I should have said $10m in additional costs.

One of the arguments against UGV replacements is "they won't be cheap".  True, in relative cost they will be quite expensive.  However, if a UGV is $1m that means we could have 24 of them instead of one Abrams.  I'm sure frontline units would prefer 24 to 1.  Even at $2m each that's still 12 systems.

Plus, $1m these days is nothing.  Simple fire department pumper trucks (the things that bring water to the fight) are over $1m each.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1daeuw7/ua_54th_mechanized_brigades_battalion_k2_posted/

 

UA 54th Mechanized Brigade's "Battalion K-2" posted video of a bizarre incident wherein a pair of Russian soldiers on a motorcycle attempt to storm Ukrainian lines on their own. Published June 7, 2024

 

The interesting bit is the the drone dropping an antitank mine right about the halfway point. The second half is VERY graphic, so skip that if you are sensitive

Quote

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1da4ape/strike_drones_company_vs_two_russians_in_the_wood/

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1da7bzn/ua_1st_tank_brigades_pegaspegasus_drone_team/

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1da51w7/ukrainians_struck_an_electrical_substation_with/

 

 

This last one is more proof of Ukrainian FPV drones operating at much greater depth 

 

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/comments/1dael1m/ua_blck_swan_drone_group_posted_video_showing_the/

This Sub Reddit hs more drone footage than i have time to watch, it just goes on forever. 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Good.

[Battlefront.com]

10 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Good.

We've seen quite a bit of footage of the Brads in action, thanks to the 47th Mech's good PR machine.  I would love to more CV90 footage

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Saw this related link in the Brad jousting video:

I wonder what was there that was worth striking?  Looks like GMLRS was used (based on the amount of destruction), yet a BRDM-2 and a truck aren't themselves very interesting.  BRDM-2s are recon so maybe it was some sort of observation post?

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

This just in!  Putin has warned that if the West keeps sending weapons to Ukraine then Russia will send pointy sticks to its adversaries.  Putin said "weapons", but at this point I think pointy sticks is all they have that qualifies.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4710531-putin-warning-russia-weapons-western-adversaries/

Steve

[Centurian52]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

This just in!  Putin has warned that if the West keeps sending weapons to Ukraine then Russia will send pointy sticks to its adversaries.  Putin said "weapons", but at this point I think pointy sticks is all they have that qualifies.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4710531-putin-warning-russia-weapons-western-adversaries/

Steve

Weren't they already sending weapons to our adversaries before the war? Before domestic demand got dialed up to 11 foreign exports were the main source of income for the Russian defense industry. Also, I have doubts about their ability to bring their export market back up to prewar levels even after the war is over.

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This just in!  Putin has warned that if the West keeps sending weapons to Ukraine then Russia will send pointy sticks to its adversaries.  Putin said "weapons", but at this point I think pointy sticks is all they have that qualifies.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4710531-putin-warning-russia-weapons-western-adversaries/

Steve

The Iranians already hand out pointy sticks, and even slightly more sophisticated flying pointy sticks, to anyone who will grunt "death to America" three times and do a funny dance. The limiting factor on the deal is the number people who want to worry that every buzzing sound they hear for the rest of there lives is a drone that would like to discuss the error of their ways.

[ArmouredTopHat]

On 5/15/2024 at 6:04 PM, Kraft said:

Part 2.

2 armored columns, including shed-MT-LB, manage to break through and 2 russian Platoons storm the trench. Its censored and also has subtitles:

 

So I wanted to check if this had already been posted or not, but I do find it interesting how the 'weak link' in this particular attack was the infantry failing to decisively attack the trenches as the vehicles do deliver them on target. (Though the vehicles not hanging around to support does not help either, I do wonder if these attacks might be more successful if the vehicle support was stronger. Where the hell are the BMPs?)

The fact the Russians threw two platoons into a trench like this and did not even bother to try and help them or even get them out of the bad situation in any real way speaks volumes to the horrific disregard for life they have. 

To me this video shows just how important drone cooperation with the infantry is for these trench fights. This sort of fight does go a long way to explain why Russia is taking such appalling losses overall though. 

Edited June 7 by ArmouredTopHat

[ArmouredTopHat]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Definitely intense and crazy, but isn’t this a bit of a self- confirming bias?  I mean if two sides are pushing IFVs at each other of course they are going to be seen using DF, those are the primary weapons on their main platforms.  If both sides sent out platoons armed with swords and we had video of them in a sword fight, it really isn’t evidence that swords are still applicable as a primary weapon (nod to the bayonet accepted).

I think DF will definitely still happen but it will happen more and more between an unmanned edge and after over the horizon fires have gone to work.  More to the point, direct fires are more likely going to be secondary fires, like we see in the maritime environment.  They can still happen but priority is on over the horizon systems.

If terrain is transparent and unmanned gives very long reach, land warfare is likely to evolve into something more akin to naval warfare.  Now naval warfare still has littorals and complex terrain (eg islands), which we will see in land warfare with urban areas.  But DF grudge fights are likely to happen less (as we have seen in this war) as land forces push engagement ranges much further out on an illuminated battlefield.

Oh this is very much an anecdotal video and it seems both vehicles are caught off a little at the appearance of a hostile vehicle so close to one another. This is very much an outlier (Though the 47th Bradleys do seem to be fighting a lot of BTRs lately) I would point out perhaps instead that seeing clashes like this should remind us that while vehicles are in danger when operating on the front due to FPVs, they can and still do in fact enjoy at least some sort of ability to move and fight on the line. Long enough to potentially get such close encounters at least. 

Edited June 7 by ArmouredTopHat

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Oh this is very much an anecdotal video and it seems both vehicles are caught off a little at the appearance of a hostile vehicle so close to one another. This is very much an outlier (Though the 47th Bradleys do seem to be fighting a lot of BTRs lately) I would point out perhaps instead that seeing clashes like this should remind us that while vehicles are in danger when operating on the front due to FPVs, they can and still do in fact enjoy at least some sort of ability to move and fight on the line. Long enough to potentially get such close encounters at least. 

To be sure, there will always be a front edge of battle.  I am just not sure metal boxes filled with humans will be part of that equation anymore.  Because neither humans nor direct fires are what land warfare will be all about.  It will be about systems built largely on other things,

[Sojourner]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

it seems both vehicles are caught off a little at the appearance of a hostile vehicle

Since there was a drone up filming the encounter, not so sure the Brad was caught off guards. But without broader context, who knows? Would be great to see an AAR from the Bradley crew.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

So I wanted to check if this had already been posted or not, but I do find it interesting how the 'weak link' in this particular attack was the infantry failing to decisively attack the trenches as the vehicles do deliver them on target. (Though the vehicles not hanging around to support does not help either, I do wonder if these attacks might be more successful if the vehicle support was stronger. Where the hell are the BMPs?)

The fact the Russians threw two platoons into a trench like this and did not even bother to try and help them or even get them out of the bad situation in any real way speaks volumes to the horrific disregard for life they have.

As low a regard as I have for the Russians' concern for each others' lives, but it's not the obvious reason for them to pull out... lack of survivability is.  What do you think these things would do, practically speaking, by sticking around?  They already lost a bunch of vehicles on the way in and suffered direct hits on others just in this one attack alone.  This is not a safe environment for them to be in, so the SMART thing is to get the heck out of there.  The MT-LBs are not armed in any real way anyway, so in those cases all they'd be doing is risking a taxi ride for someone else.

The other thing to consider is the drones.  What sort of difference can a T-72 making providing suppressing fire against drones smashing the hapless infantry?  None.  All that T-72 can do is risk being hit and not being available for something else.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

Since there was a drone up filming the encounter, not so sure the Brad was caught off guards. But without broader context, who knows? Would be great to see an AAR from the Bradley crew.

My guess is the crew in the Brad were surprised the BTR came right at them because that's about the dumbest thing the BTR could have done.

Steve

[Kraft]

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

This Sub Reddit hs more drone footage than i have time to watch, it just goes on forever. 

It is also only a fraction (usually the highlights) of what is being uploaded on the drone units TG channels, it is almost a full time job watching everything at this point and I am not able to keep up at all.

3 hours ago, dan/california said:

bizarre incident wherein a pair of Russian soldiers on a motorcycle attempt to storm Ukrainian lines on their own

I'd wager these two were sent to die to expose possible unspotted defending positions.

4 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Remember this thing? 

@Kraft

Sadly no damage assessment, I want to see how the Rider looks like.

[FancyCat]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Saw this related link in the Brad jousting video:

I wonder what was there that was worth striking?  Looks like GMLRS was used (based on the amount of destruction), yet a BRDM-2 and a truck aren't themselves very interesting.  BRDM-2s are recon so maybe it was some sort of observation post?

Steve

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/24/russia-jamming-us-weapons-ukraine/

Ukraine has been forced to use HIMARS in some instances to hit lower priority targets where EW won't cause it to fail.

Quote

But by the second year, “everything ended: the Russians deployed electronic warfare, disabled satellite signals, and HIMARS became completely ineffective,” a second senior Ukrainian military official said. “This ineffectiveness led to the point where a very expensive shell was used” increasingly to strike lower-priority targets.

The Ukrainian military documents did not assess guided M30 or M31 munitions, which are fired from HIMARS launchers. But in January, Ukraine’s military command wrote a policy paper urging Western supporters to provide an alternative: M26 cluster munitions that also could be launched from multiple-launch rocket systems. These low-tech, unguided rockets are resistant to jamming, and the cluster submunitions can still hit targets in a wide area even if the shot is imprecise.

 

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

I'd wager these two were sent to die to expose possible unspotted defending positions.

"If only Putin knew how our commanders are using us!  He would be outraged and make it stop!"