How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Fenris]

/Scurries off to learn about Mirage 2000's.  About all I know is there was a movie about 25 years ago with Mirages doing a long range strike into Africa, some very nice photography.

Anyone with insight want to share?

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Eddy said:

To give some background to this announcement the current training pipeline for future Ukrainian pilots is this:

1. Basic training is done in the UK on Grob Prefect T1
    (At the same time there is language training and also training in G simulators to get used to the nest step)
2. Initial fast jet training is done  in the UK on a Beechcraft Texan T1 ( a turboprop aircraft)
 
3. Advanced fast jet training is done on Armee de l'Air Alpha Jets

As neither the French or the British have F16s, there is no existing pipeline from moving from Alpha Jets to F16s.

There is, however, an existing pipeline for moving from Alpha Jets to Mirage 2000s

This, I think, indicates a longer term, more mature approach to providing capability to the Ukrainian Air Force. It's a more thought out announcement that President Macron trying to get Brownie points.

(There's a load of bollocks on socials about Mirage 2000s only being provided to launch Scalp/Storm Shadow. The Mirage 2000-5 is a lot more capable than that. It's no F35 but it's no Su 24 either) 
 

Belgium uses Alpha Jets, so transition from the Alpha Jet to the F-16 has been done on a routine basis by at least one air force off the top of my head. Also, I don't think the curriculum for fighter pilot training on an operational type is all that dependent on which platform was used for the advanced/LIFT phase... There are plenty of cases where pilots will train with another air force, especially within NATO, so I'm guessing the French are already used to training LIFT candidates going on to an operational type not in service with l'Armée de l'Air.

Or, to put it another way, a new USAF fighter pilot would currently be trained on the T-38 Talon...which was originally designed in the late 1950s as a lead-in trainer for the Century Series fighters and the F-4 Phantom II.

Fully agree on the Mirage 2000-5, it's an excellent fourth generation multirole fighter, closely comparable to the F-16A MLU in capability (Greece, Taiwan and the UAE already currently operate both the Mirage 2000 and the F-16, so Ukraine will not be alone in operating both types).

Edited June 6 by G.I. Joe

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

 

We have seen just from the Prigo thunder run episode how potentially brittle Putin's regime is. We know for a fact that some troops ordered to stop Wagner refused to do so. All it takes is the right combination of dominos falling. I would agree though that any removal would probably be done by the military (Its a famous thing in Russia)

I agree that the regime is more fragile than it seems to casual observation but those weren't oligarchs who were standing aside and letting Prigozhin make his run. They were power brokers amongst the siloviki who tacitly supported the challenge for their own purposes but were also not prepared to see someone like Prigozhin take the reins. He was a catspaw to force a renegotiation of terms between the upper edge of middle management and the CEO's office and nothing more.  

Those who were simply industrialists and/or money men have been eclipsed by those who have a foot in the intelligence world and also have broad experience running sectors of the government and/or economy. The next generation of the Patrushevs, Dyumin, etc are prime examples. Ironically, the greatest buttress of Putin's position at the moment is that they are all terrified of a proper collapse. Wagner entering Moscow could have quite easily triggered an actual popular explosion and in the end, that is the last thing any of them want. Control is all.

Edited June 6 by billbindc

[dan/california]

51 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I agree that the regime is more fragile than it seems to casual observation but those weren't oligarchs who were standing aside and letting Prigozhin make his run. They were power brokers amongst the siloviki who tacitly supported the challenge for their own purposes but were also not prepared to see someone like Prigozhin take the reins. He was a catspaw to force a renegotiation of terms between the upper edge of middle management and the CEO's office and nothing more.  

Those who were simply industrialists and/or money men have been eclipsed by those who have a foot in the intelligence world and also have broad experience running sectors of the government and/or economy. The next generation of the Patrushevs, Dyumin, etc are prime examples. Ironically, the greatest buttress of Putin's position at the moment is that they are all terrified of a proper collapse. Wagner entering Moscow could have quite easily triggered an actual popular explosion and in the end, that is the last thing any of them want. Control is all.

There were a bunch of off ramps for Putin early that he didn't even deign to acknowledge much less consider. There are probably not any off ramps for Putin anymore. So that that leaves two ways this ends, either the people right under Putin decide that throwing him overboard and blaming him for everything is their best bet, or the Russian state/army simply cracks. I guess Ukraine giving up would be the third, but I don't like that one very much.

Edited June 7 by dan/california

[danfrodo]

4 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

We have seen just from the Prigo thunder run episode how potentially brittle Putin's regime is.

Yes, a very good point!  It's like russians aren't willing to revolt but they are also quite ready to stand aside if someone else takes out putin

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, billbindc said:

I agree that the regime is more fragile than it seems to casual observation but those weren't oligarchs who were standing aside and letting Prigozhin make his run. They were power brokers amongst the siloviki who tacitly supported the challenge for their own purposes but were also not prepared to see someone like Prigozhin take the reins. He was a catspaw to force a renegotiation of terms between the upper edge of middle management and the CEO's office and nothing more.  

Those who were simply industrialists and/or money men have been eclipsed by those who have a foot in the intelligence world and also have broad experience running sectors of the government and/or economy. The next generation of the Patrushevs, Dyumin, etc are prime examples. Ironically, the greatest buttress of Putin's position at the moment is that they are all terrified of a proper collapse. Wagner entering Moscow could have quite easily triggered an actual popular explosion and in the end, that is the last thing any of them want. Control is all.

And let's not forget all of the "suicides" and "murder suicides" that occurred amongst top oil and gas executives in the first months of the war.  Some of them were shocking even to me, a person familiar with Soviet/Russian messaging.

It was clear then that Putin was sending a message to the oligarchs that they need to stay in line or they'll wind up hanging in the room where their family was cut open presumably in front of their eyes.  Since oligarchs like money best when they are alive to spend it, they are a pretty easy clique to keep from causing too much trouble.  As long as the "spice flows", that is.

The question we've been asking since the war started is if the oligarchs might change their minds if they find that their enjoyment of money is curtailed by either having less of it or having less ways to spend it.  So far as we can tell the answer is they're sitting by hoping that someone else takes care of their problems for them.  But what do we really know?  Nothing.  Because if there was anything going on we'd only hear about it after something happened, not before.

Steve

[billbindc]

18 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And let's not forget all of the "suicides" and "murder suicides" that occurred amongst top oil and gas executives in the first months of the war.  Some of them were shocking even to me, a person familiar with Soviet/Russian messaging.

It was clear then that Putin was sending a message to the oligarchs that they need to stay in line or they'll wind up hanging in the room where their family was cut open presumably in front of their eyes.  Since oligarchs like money best when they are alive to spend it, they are a pretty easy clique to keep from causing too much trouble.  As long as the "spice flows", that is.

The question we've been asking since the war started is if the oligarchs might change their minds if they find that their enjoyment of money is curtailed by either having less of it or having less ways to spend it.  So far as we can tell the answer is they're sitting by hoping that someone else takes care of their problems for them.  But what do we really know?  Nothing.  Because if there was anything going on we'd only hear about it after something happened, not before.

Steve

Money is simply not that important any longer in terms of actual power in Russia...or perhaps a better way to say it is that money is not *sufficient*. Real power resides with those who have strong connections in the security services and either a dual or subsequent role in government. Control of or strong influence over a department means control of regulation and enforcement in that sector which then in turn provides a framework with which to compel tribute/corruption/acquiescence within that sphere. The security service connections supply the muscle. 

Dyumin is an excellent example of this. He went   to military engineering school but immediately after was doing counter surveillance work in Moscow. From there to the Federal Protective Service, then Putin's security team,  Deputy MoD, Governor of Tula and now Secretary of the State Council (some steps omitted). Sergei Ivanov, per and fils, are similar examples. Ditto the Patrushev clan. 

The distinction between the oligarchs and the siloviks is a very important one for understanding the current Russian state and should not be blurred. BLUF, don't worry about the money men. They are cowed and powerless. Look at what the middle aged graduates of the FSB college or similar are up to. That's who likely owns and are likeliest to bring about a post Putin Russia.  

Edited June 7 by billbindc

[Carolus]

FPV strikes on a Russian locomotive. 

Silly to leave it in range. Unfortunately the Russian reserves of locomotives are as deep as some Soviet vehicle depots.

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, Carolus said:

FPV strikes on a Russian locomotive. 

Silly to leave it in range. Unfortunately the Russian reserves of locomotives are as deep as some Soviet vehicle depots.

I was unable to find a good geolocation, but the important thing about this video is that Ukrainian FPV drones are operating at whatever distance from the frontline that this very relaxed looking locomotive was parked. Some of the comments about this say it was partisans, But I don't think GUR would use up competent partisans for a target like this one. Not when there are S-400s, generals, and EW systems to go after. I think Ukraine has solved the problems with drone motherships and com relays at a large enough scale start attacking te entire Russian system at a depth of at least twenty or thirty kilometers. 

We have also seen FPV style drone killing SPGs, again that implies ten kilometers or more of reach.

Edited June 7 by dan/california

[cesmonkey]

From Ukrainian Konstantin Mashovets:
https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/1934

Quote

In the Pokrovsky direction , the enemy apparently managed to “catch on” to Novoaleksandrovka and provide the left flank of his Ocheretinsky group with an advance to the Sokol-Novopokrovskoye line.

In the Kramatorsk direction , the enemy is expanding the area of control, where he managed to reach the Seversky Donets - Donbass canal, south of the city of Chasov Yar, and also advance south of the "Novy" microdistrict of the city of Chasov Yar.

Obviously, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet been able, unlike the Kharkov operational direction, to stop the enemy’s offensive in the Eastern operational zone - neither in the Pokrovsky nor in the Kramatorsk directions.

There will be no review tomorrow morning due to “technical reasons”.

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.reddit.com/r/DroneCombat/wiki/list/

This is a LENGTHY list of Russian soldiers committing suicide after drone attacks, ~approximately sixty vids. It drives home how nuts it is that the Russian army is still in the field.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

Money is simply not that important any longer in terms of actual power in Russia...or perhaps a better way to say it is that money is not *sufficient*. Real power resides with those who have strong connections in the security services and either a dual or subsequent role in government. Control of or strong influence over a department means control of regulation and enforcement in that sector which then in turn provides a framework with which to compel tribute/corruption/acquiescence within that sphere. The security service connections supply the muscle. 

Dyumin is an excellent example of this. He went   to military engineering school but immediately after was doing counter surveillance work in Moscow. From there to the Federal Protective Service, then Putin's security team,  Deputy MoD, Governor of Tula and now Secretary of the State Council (some steps omitted). Sergei Ivanov, per and fils, are similar examples. Ditto the Patrushev clan. 

The distinction between the oligarchs and the siloviks is a very important one for understanding the current Russian state and should not be blurred. BLUF, don't worry about the money men. They are cowed and powerless. Look at what the middle aged graduates of the FSB college or similar are up to. That's who likely owns and are likeliest to bring about a post Putin Russia.  

Yes, all of this.  It's been a while since we had this sort of discussion, so I'm glad it got brought up again.  It's important even if we can't see how it's playing out yet.

Putin has been whittling away the political power of the oligarchs for quite some time now.  At least 15 years (Yukos Oil was 2007).  I suppose they could still be important for a Putin usurper or if Putin were to suddenly die.  But I think more likely they will just sit back and let others fight for the job.  It is quite dangerous to make alliances when there's a better than good chance betrayal or discovery will happen before anything productive comes from it.

We've also discussed the tendency for autocratic regimes to consolidate too much power in one direction.  A one legged stool, so to speak.  It's not a stable state and it often leads to too much power being concentrated too close to the leader.  The security officials at the time know how powerful they are and, under the right conditions, decide that they'd be better off in charge.

It's been a long time since we had any indications anything like this was in the works.  Even when Priggy did his thing there wasn't a lot of overt support for him.  Though I still maintain the security services were complicit in some way.  Given how much of a loudmouth Priggy was it's impossible to believe that the security services were in the dark.

Anyhoo, no signs of a coup on the horizon, but at this point I don't think we'll see it coming if it happens.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

This sounds familiar.  Last year a Russian influencer funneled $7m worth of chips and other sanctioned high tech to Russia.  She just plead guilty:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7bnk3/globetrotting-millennial-woman-pleads-guilty-to-sending-dollar7m-of-drone-missile-parts-to-russia

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

Looks like Russia is going to create the Novorossiia federal district, which will comprise Ukraine's Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions (including their non-occupied parts, which Russia already considers its own) and, surprisingly, Crimea.

 

[Sarjen]

Small update by Generalmajor der Panzerwaffe Freuding to the current situation in Ukraine. He visited the Ukraine some days before and was deeply impressed by them as they were commanding/leading the maneuver by drone overview. Captions should be good enough to understand everything.
 

 

[cesmonkey]

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3799832/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
 

Quote

This Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package, which has an estimated value of $225 million, will provide Ukraine additional capabilities to meet its most urgent battlefield needs, such as: air defense interceptors; artillery systems and munitions; armored vehicles; and anti-tank weapons.

The capabilities in this announcement include:

    Missiles for HAWK air defense systems;
    Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
    Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
    155mm Howitzers;
    155mm and 105mm artillery rounds;
    81mm mortar systems;
    M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
    Trailers to transport heavy equipment;
    Coastal and riverine patrol boats;
    Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
    Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
    Small arms ammunition and grenades;
    Demolitions munitions;
    Night vision devices; and
    Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

 

 

[cesmonkey]

 

[cesmonkey]

Commander-in-Chief of the AFU
https://t.me/osirskiy/715

Quote

The war does not stand in the way of changes in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

We continue to improve the structures of military management. Our main task is to make the military command system more effective and eliminate duplication of functions.
These measures are carried out as part of the implementation of the strategy for the development of the types and separate branches of the Armed Forces of Ukraine until 2035.

For the first time, we are planning ten years ahead.
In the same context, the formation of the Forces of unmanned systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is being carried out.
In addition, optimization of the staffing structure of the units of the General Staff continues. In particular, their number is decreasing and they are getting rid of extraneous functions. Thanks to this, the military management bodies that command the troops in the areas of hostilities have already been strengthened.

Our goal, despite Russian aggression, is to create a promising structure of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the period before joining NATO.

 

[dan/california]

7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

This sounds familiar.  Last year a Russian influencer funneled $7m worth of chips and other sanctioned high tech to Russia.  She just plead guilty:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7bnk3/globetrotting-millennial-woman-pleads-guilty-to-sending-dollar7m-of-drone-missile-parts-to-russia

Steve

Maybe they can trade them for the WSJ reporter, and some of the other foreign nationals the Russians are holding on transparently trumped up charges.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3799832/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
 

 

This is now the second time I've seen Hawk AD missiles being part of an aid package, the first one being about a month ago.  I don't recall seeing any reports of their use. 

Although this is an ancient system, they should be good enough to take on most of the stuff Russia is using against civilian targets.  This will take the burden off of the more capable systems so they can better focus on Russia's more advanced missiles.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Commander-in-Chief of the AFU
https://t.me/osirskiy/715

 

Read this as "economizing manpower so we don't have to mobilize".

No peacetime system, not even one that was engaged in a protracted "frozen conflict", is as efficient as it needs to be under wartime conditions.  I'm sure there are lots of areas to trim/eliminate to free up personnel for other duties.  I'm reminded of the British getting rid of their AAMG units in late 1944 because a) they weren't really necessary and b) they needed more men for things that were.

Steve

[dan/california]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Read this as "economizing manpower so we don't have to mobilize".

No peacetime system, not even one that was engaged in a protracted "frozen conflict", is as efficient as it needs to be under wartime conditions.  I'm sure there are lots of areas to trim/eliminate to free up personnel for other duties.  I'm reminded of the British getting rid of their AAMG units in late 1944 because a) they weren't really necessary and b) they needed more men for things that were.

Steve

There is more than a little bit of historical irony that Ukraine had stand up AAMG units frantically to counter the Shaheed threat.

[ArmouredTopHat]

Some utterly insane CQB fighting between a Bradley and a BTR. A little amazed this kind of close in fighting can still happen with the modern emphasis on range and the plethora of drone recon. While rare I do feel this is why having direct fire capability is still very valuable on the battlefield. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Some utterly insane CQB fighting between a Bradley and a BTR. A little amazed this kind of close in fighting can still happen with the modern emphasis on range and the plethora of drone recon.

Thanks!  Haiduk posted some stills from this a few days ago, but I don't think that link had the video.  Crazy stuff.

7 minutes ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

While rare I do feel this is why having direct fire capability is still very valuable on the battlefield. 

Absolutely.  The last Bradley video posted here, where it was putting down suppressive fire along a row of houses, is something I commented on for that very same reason.  The difference is... you're thinking of a $10m monster that looks like this:

While I'm thinking this:
 

Steve

[ArmouredTopHat]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Absolutely.  The last Bradley video posted here, where it was putting down suppressive fire along a row of houses, is something I commented on for that very same reason.  The difference is... you're thinking of a $10m monster that looks like this:

Never thought I would see an Tom Clancys End War tank reference here!

 

Edited June 7 by ArmouredTopHat