How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

Update from commander Oleksandr Syrskyi:
https://t.me/osirskiy/712
 

Quote

Once again, he worked in the area of active hostilities on the Kharkiv and Kupyan directions of the Eastern Front.

The enemy continues to carry out offensive actions, concentrating the main efforts on the Kurakhiv, Pokrovsky, Kupyan, Kharkiv directions. In addition, it conducts active assault operations in Vovchansk and on the approaches to Chasovoy Yar with the aim of capturing and taking control of these two settlements.

In other directions, the enemy is conducting offensive actions with the aim of stretching the line of the active front, restraining our troops and preventing them from being transferred to other areas of hostilities.

In general, the situation remains difficult due to the high intensity of hostilities and the widespread use of armored vehicles by the enemy, as well as the use of a significant number of guided aerial bombs.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy concentrates its main efforts and tries to advance towards Hlyboke - Lypka, but suffers significant losses and does not succeed.

In Vovchansk, our main task at this stage is to restrain the enemy, inflict maximum losses on him and gradually move forward to liberate our territories.

The situation in the Kupyansk region is difficult. The enemy is trying to break through the defense of our troops from two directions. Fierce fighting continues. Our task is to stop the enemy and force him to go on the defensive.

My task is to provide this direction with a sufficient amount of ammunition and combat-ready reserves, which will allow to significantly strengthen the defense.

Despite all the complexity of the situation, we have chances to change the situation in our favor. And the defense forces are doing everything possible for this.

I would like to note the efficient work of most commanders and staffs. The commanders of our units are fully aware of the situation, skillfully use all types of weapons, especially attack drones of all types. And I also thank the soldiers, sergeants and junior officers for their steadfastness and courage.

Together we will defeat the enemy!
Glory to Ukraine!

 

[holoween]

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Then that lead MTLB does bog but it is weird.  Maybe he threw a track?  Or did it get blown off?

 

15 hours ago, holoween said:

obstacle on path, 1st mtlb stopps before it, second one runns up behind it, first one reverses over second one, both seem to be immobilized,

Look at the video and its clearly visible. Also in a later shot there are track marks in a circle at the mtlb so it definitely threw a track during this manouver. One of the mtlbs also gets hit by an fpv but its not clear what exactly the damage was. that ko could also have come from the crash or arty. also there is infantry already dismounted before the fpv hits.

13 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Those infantry vehicles had a long way to go under observation and artillery.  I am not sure which came first, the screw ups or arty (hard to see) in the end it did not matter.  That FPV would have likely hit an MTLB because they were the priority.

There has been arty fire the entire time but it never actually hit anything mobile.

And the mtlbs wouldnt have been priority based on the fact that in the attack the next day which actually got into the trench they didnt focus them either.

[cesmonkey]

 

[kimbosbread]

If “tank” transitions to VLS cells on tracks, don’t bother with an expensive chassis at all. Just grab an M113 from the boneyard and you are good to go. But that begs the question of why not just using whatever MRAP you have laying around, or an LC70/Hilux.

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

(evidently, this too is a UL)

Steve @Battlefront.com can you special flag that post somehow so folks don't miss it?

Now whaddayaknowaboutthat... there IS a feature to do such a thing.  See top of this page!

Steve

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, holoween said:

 

Look at the video and its clearly visible. Also in a later shot there are track marks in a circle at the mtlb so it definitely threw a track during this manouver. One of the mtlbs also gets hit by an fpv but its not clear what exactly the damage was. that ko could also have come from the crash or arty. also there is infantry already dismounted before the fpv hits.

There has been arty fire the entire time but it never actually hit anything mobile.

And the mtlbs wouldnt have been priority based on the fact that in the attack the next day which actually got into the trench they didnt focus them either.

You have better (and likely younger) eyes than me.  Bottom line is whether this was an induced cluster F or was it organic.  Looks like a combination of both to me with a lot of the same symptoms we have been noting for months.

I do think that you are underestimating the effects of those fires though.  Artillery fragments could be damaging and blowing holes in those APCs and we are not going to be able to see it.  Those shell drops are danger close.  Positive safety for explosives + metal is a 1000m, below 100m and you are under effective fire.  Troops are going to feel concussion and fragments can easily kill.

As to MTLB priority - I can only go with what the narrator said, they were more concerned with infantry than the armor…and I don’t blame them.

Said it before, and will say it again, mass as we knew it is broken in this war.  No amount of training is going to solve it.

Edited June 5 by The_Capt

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Now I have to get that floppy hat…

Nah, we love you just the way you are

Thanks to LLF for prodding me to flag that post of yours.  It does an excellent job of summarizing multiple threads of conversation here in a succinct way.

We've had debates about the merits, practical application, and near term realism of each of these points.  I'm quite satisfied that nobody has yet poked any significant holes in any of this and, more importantly, managed to present a better or more viable alternative long term strategy.

The ongoing discussion about APS (which is largely a repeat of several before it) is an excellent example. 

The "tank is dead" position might be disputed, but nobody here is disputing that "tanks" (really, heavy AFVs generally) can't stay as they are.  The battlefield is already too lethal for them to perform their traditional roles and that successful counters to them (everything from ATGMs to cheap FPV drones) are trending upward with no end in sight to it.  Therefore, the defenders of the tank know that the burden of proof to continue maintaining the tank is *not* dead rests on their shoulders.  This is no the 1990s any more.

We've seen some very smart and informed people talk in detail about what could change to retain tanks on the battlefield.  Unfortunately for arguing their side, the hill to climb is incredibly steep and their opponents are already well ahead of them because they have a far easier path.

APS comes up as Wunderwaffe, something that can magically protect tanks from everything the "tank is dead" crowd can argue against.  We get into technical weeds that few other discussion areas could possibly hope to dive into.  The "tank is not dead" crowd can even make progress here because what they are arguing for may actually be technically possible, even if perhaps not probable.

With this the "tank is not dead" crowd believes it has at least part of the solution to keeping heavy armor on the battlefield.  Except for the fact that they won't engage in a meaningful and realistic discussion about the length of time, costs, and logistics strain such a solution presents.  So the other pillar of the "tank is not dead" argument is that there's nothing to replace the tank.

That part of the debate is still shaping.  But The_Capt's post addresses where we should head with it.  And unlike the "tank is not dead" side, length of time, costs, and logistics aspects *are* directly discussed.  In fact, much of this is the reason why the "tank is dead" side is so convinced of their position.  Whatever they can come up with will be quicker, cheaper, and logistically easier to support than anything the "tank is not dead" side can come up with.  Why am I so sure of it?  Because it's been long established that it is already vastly cheaper to kill a tank than it is to maintain it.  The argument is already won, which is likely why the "tank is not dead" side seeks to avoid it as a topic of discussion.

Steve

[keas66]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

 

I have that Twitter poster blocked for reasons - see if you can figure them out .

However  "Don's Weekly , 3rd Jun 2023 Part 2"    email  from Sarcosaurus/ Tom Cooper's feed   goes into this a little more detail and  uses less exaggerated wording  - "Russia continues to attack across the sector. They suffered heavy losses and made little progress with the exception of a 1500 meter gain west of Semenivka"

 

Edited June 5 by keas66

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Well, that's logical and what I would have expected... but we just had a flap about this specifically in regards to the ambush Ukraine did.  Interesting.

Steve

[Harmon Rabb]

Quote

Hetman Ivan Mazepa (F-211) Corvette, built by RMK Marine Shipyard as the main contractor, made its first navigation test today. (Translated using Google Translate)

Ukrainian Corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa Begins First Sea Trials (mil.in.ua)

Quote

The newest Ukrainian corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa (F-211) left the RMK Marine shipyard for its first sea trials.

The corresponding photos were published by the Turkish marine columnist en_balci on his X page.

In the published photos, it is clear that the ship is already armed with a Super Rapid 76-millimeter naval gun manufactured by the Italian company OTO Melara.

 

The open cover of the VL MICA naval anti-aircraft missile system, announced back in March 2023, is also visible on the bow of the ship.

A sea version of the Turkish Korkut 35mm anti-aircraft gun from Aselsan is installed above the helicopter hangar.

The company’s other product on Mazepa’s board are STAMP 12.7mm remote controlled weapon stations, which are installed on the port and starboard sides of the ship.

It can also be seen typical radars of the Ada project: Thales Sting EO MK2 fire control system, Aselsan satellite communication system, ARES-2N electronic warfare system and Mk 36 SRBOC decoy launching system.

ALPER tactical navigation radar is installed on the Hetman Ivan Mazepa corvette, and SMART-S 3D-radar MK2 is installed to detect air targets.

The published photos do not show torpedo tubes or anti-ship missile launchers, so it can only be assumed that the corvette is armed with Murene 90 Impact torpedoes and Harpoon anti-ship missiles, making it unlikely to have Atmaca missiles.

Recall that the corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa was launched in October 2022.

The laying ceremony was held in September 2021, and at the end of December of the same year they began to compose the building.

Earlier it was planned that by the end of 2022 the ship with partial equipment would be towed to Ukraine for completion, but due to the full-scale Russian-Ukrainian war, the ship was completed and equipped in Turkey.

An update regarding the Ada class corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Update from commander Oleksandr Syrskyi:
https://t.me/osirskiy/712
 

 

As we get into the summer campaign season more we have yet to see any significant actions in the south.  This should not be surprising as it seems long ago Russia realized that it had gone as far as it could go from that direction.  Even the limited attempts to increase their hold on Donbas failed spectacularly (Vuhledar) in 2022 and have continually shown no promise since then.  Plus, Russia has invested a huge amount in fortifying that sector of front, so they have every incentive to stay where they are (except for Donbas).

Thus far we've seen Russia pursue 3 primary efforts for the summer:

1.  Taking Kupyansk (Luhansk north)

2.  Pushing out from Bakhmut towards Chasovoy Yar and beyond (Luhansk south)

3.  Continuing to push westward from Avdiivka (Donetsk center)

The Kharkiv operation is kinda its own thing because territorial gains are not really the primary goal there, at least from what I can tell.  Which puts that operation in with the sundry of other attacks designed to tie down and attrit Ukrainian forces generally.

I think we should expect Russia to try to launch another major attack somewhere else.  This doesn't seem like enough for them based on their standard pattern of behavior.  The usual suspect is from the Lyman direction or perhaps a "southern pincer" from Svatove to support the existing Kupyansk effort.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

 

Fortunately for Ukraine, this report is by Röpcke.  He's about as reliable as broken clock.

Steve

[Carolus]

Clip of an FPV drone which finishes the job autonomously to avoid jamming, from a plucky group of Ukrainian volunteer inventors.

 

 

[Blazing 88's]

Can I turn off "Recommended" at the top of the page and if so how do I turn it off?

Thanks.

[Harmon Rabb]

Quote

First recorded appearance of the Dutch Cheetah self-propelled guns, which were purchased by the United States from Jordan in the amount of 60 units, in Ukraine.

 

In 2013, the Netherlands sold it to Jordan, receiving 21 million euros for the deal. The Dutch army sent the last 60th unit in 2016.

The United States announced decision to buy 60 vehicles from Jordan for 110 million euros in order to deliver them to Ukraine at the beginning of summer 2023.

American company Global Military Products received a contract from the US Department of Defense for more than $118 million for the purchase and supply of self-propelled anti-aircraft guns for Ukraine.

At the time it was reported that an estimated completion date of May 30, 2024. It’s not known whether all 60 units were delivered up to this point.

Dutch Flakpanzer Gepards spotted in Ukraine.

 

[LongLeftFlank]

2 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Ukrainian Corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa Begins First Sea Trials (mil.in.ua)

An update regarding the Ada class corvette Hetman Ivan Mazepa.

Sail her to the Baltic, with letters of marque to waylay LNG ships.

Sink, Burn or take her a Prize.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Carolus said:

Clip of an FPV drone which finishes the job autonomously to avoid jamming, from a plucky group of Ukrainian volunteer inventors.

 

 

This is step one. the next trick will be that the no longer FPV drones can pick up the the targeting data straight form the recon drone. It could even home on the recon drone until it was close enough to see the target. This time next year jamming these things is going to be almost irrelevant, maybe even by the end of summer. The more progress they make down this road the less they will be limited by bandwidth and operator availability and training. Once this really works drones will stop showing up much closer together even if they are not truly swarming yet. Five of them coming in five seconds apart will still wreck someones day.

This makes the Ukrainian program to take out mid altitude recon drones even more important. The Russians will eventually figure this out too.

[billbindc]

22 hours ago, ArmouredTopHat said:

Thank you, it honestly means a lot. I for one am enjoying the different perspectives here, even if I have my reservations or disagreements and concerns with some of them. No one is making bad or poorly structured points and I honestly find it refreshing. 

Yes. Good show all around. 

I for one had no idea APS has as strong signal presence and it completely rewired my understanding of the issue. 

[LuckyDog]

23 hours ago, The_Capt said:

- C4ISR - best in the world.  I want a fully illuminated battlefield in real time that can integrate all my shooters in a cloud-like concept.  I see targets early and can pull from that cloud of a self-healing network of offensive systems.  From sub-surface, surface, air, space and cyber - I want See, Hear, Understand superiority.  With that I can beat just about anyone.

Might I suggest the addition of predictive analytics to preemptively position units and strikes? The level of data integration gives a significant amount of insight into what units will do. While the factors involved are amazingly complex on the surface, the option space on the ground is more limited due to terrain/mines/supply, and the command/control structure reduces uncertainty. This could mitigate the issues around drone endurance.

[Harmon Rabb]

Quote

Speaker of the House of Representatives Mike Johnson believes that the current permissions for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use US weapons from the Biden administration are not enough.

Washington must stop "micromanaging the war effort in Ukraine" and Mr. Johnson plans to raise this issue in conversation with the Biden administration. "I continue to say it, and I'll say it again. We will have conversations with the White House about it," the Speaker told Voice of America's congressional correspondent Kateryna Lisunova.

Mike Johnson reaffirms his position and says more restrictions should be lifted.

[dan/california]

 

[billbindc]

Fascinating: https://theins.ru/en/politics/272145

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, LuckyDog said:

Might I suggest the addition of predictive analytics to preemptively position units and strikes? The level of data integration gives a significant amount of insight into what units will do. While the factors involved are amazingly complex on the surface, the option space on the ground is more limited due to terrain/mines/supply, and the command/control structure reduces uncertainty. This could mitigate the issues around drone endurance.

Predictive analytics are the shining city on a hill from a warfare point of view.  If some one can crack how to create reliable predictive algorithms for what is an inherently chaoplexic space they are in effect fighting on a different temporal plane.  I am all in on this one but I have no idea when the technology will be there.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Mike Johnson reaffirms his position and says more restrictions should be lifted.

This man has truly had his "road to Damascus" moment. Either that, or he suffered a massive stroke.

[sburke]

Ukrainian vintners in Napa Valley learning to rebuild their wine industry (msn.com)

Very cool, first winery I ever visited in Calif. and still one of my favorites.