How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, billbindc said:

This is an extremely stupid thing to do if you are trying to address American escalation concerns.

No, no, let’s let the ATACMs off the leash entirely…what could possibly go wrong?

[OldSarge]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

This is an extremely stupid thing to do if you are trying to address American escalation concerns.

There are two Voronezh-DM (77Ya6-DM) radars at the Baronovsky Airfield, one covers the SE and the other faces SW. Since they're located at an airfield, I'm wondering if they were just targets of opportunity because nothing better was around.

Both appear to have been hit.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/24-may-russian-overthehorizon-early-detection-radar-station

 

Edited May 24 by OldSarge
Added pondering about target of opportunity

[keas66]

18 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No, no, let’s let the ATACMs off the leash entirely…what could possibly go wrong?

I mean definitely a bad idea - but is there proof that this was Ukrainian Drones - the impact strikes/damage on the buildings looks pretty enormous for a drone  no ? The pictures also look  like old damage ? Where is the smoke damage/ discoloration etc . The pictures look odd .

Edited May 24 by keas66

[Kraft]

2 hours ago, Eddy said:

for the upcoming peace talks that the Ukrainians are putting together

?

[Eddy]

8 minutes ago, Kraft said:

?

There is a peace summit in Switzerland, June 15th/16th, which apparently President Biden isn't going to:

Bloomberg: US President Biden likely to miss Ukraine's peace summit (kyivindependent.com)

(I should have typed peace summit, not talks)

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, OldSarge said:

There are two Voronezh-DM (77Ya6-DM) radars at the Baronovsky Airfield, one covers the SE and the other faces SW. Since they're located at an airfield, I'm wondering if they were just targets of opportunity because nothing better was around.

Both appear to have been hit.
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/24-may-russian-overthehorizon-early-detection-radar-station

 

No idea...but there should have been bright red "Do Not **** With This" warnings all over these targets on the Ukraine side. Kyiv actively hurt it's cause here. Acton with more detail: 

 

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

No, no, let’s let the ATACMs off the leash entirely…what could possibly go wrong?

If nothing else, this episode is a great example of why the US has legitimate concerns about the use of American weapons. The first and foremost priority is to avoid nuclear escalation. If Ukraine cannot commit to that principle in the use of aid then the US has every right to put limitations in. 

[dan/california]

52 minutes ago, billbindc said:

If nothing else, this episode is a great example of why the US has legitimate concerns about the use of American weapons. The first and foremost priority is to avoid nuclear escalation. If Ukraine cannot commit to that principle in the use of aid then the US has every right to put limitations in. 

There is no evidence Ukraine has ever violated an agreement with the U.S. about the utilization of a particular weapon system. Indeed their is at least a a rumor that the U.S. sees an actual target list beforehand for the longer range stuff. The Ukrainian very long range drone program is first and foremost a response to the six month stoppage in U.S. aid. We can't possibly blame them for that. I am absolutely certain the Ukrainians would give the U.S. the same target pre approval with that system in return for being able to drop a couple of dozen ATACMS on Tagnerog, and other air bases just over the Russian border from Ukraine. It even sounds like that deal might be underway.

We also shouldn't overlook the fact that the Russian air defense system is so broken that top tier strategic assets can hit by what amount to autonomous kamikaze Cessnas.

Last but not least, their is a none zero chance the Russians blew up their own radar just to apply diplomatic pressure on the Ukrainians over the strike program. Said program is by all appearances having an effect.

If we want the Ukrainians to quit fighting, and accept a ceasefire/armistice on the current lines, all we have to do is accept them into (Edit: NATO) and the EU at the same table, at the same time. If we can't get ourselves organized to do that the choices are allowing Ukraine to be defeated, or supporting it until Russia collapses. Seems like it is time for some diplomats to have a frank discussion or five.

Edited May 24 by dan/california

[keas66]

 I assume we ( The US )  already know the facts - so if Ukraine really did do this  I expect we will hear some official statement / action relatively soon . Until then color me  suspicious .

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, dan/california said:

There is no evidence Ukraine has ever violated an agreement with the U.S. about the utilization of a particular weapon system. Indeed their is at least a a rumor that the U.S. sees an actual target list beforehand for the longer range stuff. The Ukrainian very long range drone program is first and foremost a response to the six month stoppage in U.S. aid. We can't possibly blame them for that. I am absolutely certain the Ukrainians would give the U.S. the same target pre approval with that system in return for being able to drop a couple of dozen ATACMS on Tagnerog, and other air bases just over the Russian border from Ukraine. It even sounds like that deal might be underway.

We also shouldn't overlook the fact that the Russian air defense system is so broken that top tier strategic assets can hit by what amount to autonomous kamikaze Cessnas.

Last but not least, their is a none zero chance the Russians blew up their own radar just to apply diplomatic pressure on the Ukrainians over the strike program. Said program is by all appearances having an effect.

If we want the Ukrainians to quit fighting, and accept a ceasefire/armistice on the current lines, all we have to do is accept them into Ukraine and the EU at the same table, at the same time. If we can't get ourselves organized to do that the choices are allowing Ukraine to be defeated, or supporting it until Russia collapses. Seems like it is time for some diplomats to have a frank discussion or five.

Forgive me if that wasn't clear but I did not say they had violated an agreement. I said that it was deeply irresponsible to hit that particular target. It is of only marginal use to the Russian military vis a vis the war in Ukraine but is a significant strategic Russian asset that tracks incoming ICBMS. That's flat out destabilizing and provides fuel to those who want to limit ATACMs, etc.  

[OldSarge]

39 minutes ago, billbindc said:

No idea...but there should have been bright red "Do Not **** With This" warnings all over these targets on the Ukraine side. Kyiv actively hurt it's cause here. Acton with more detail: 

 

I certainly agree  with you, it was a dangerous move if the UAF actually did it. It just interests me that the UAF would waste valuable munitions on targets that have almost no value to them. The radars are fixed and not looking into Ukraine, and even if they were most TACAIR operations would fall below the radar horizon - if the public numbers are right.

I used this calculator. assuming 30m for sensor height.
https://www.translatorscafe.com/unit-converter/en-US/calculator/radar-horizon/

[dan/california]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/23/3-billion-secret-program-undermining-bidens-tech-policy-00158757 It might not be the best way to find the money, but at least someone understands that the Pentagon a needs a supply of chips with a truly secure supply chain.

[danfrodo]

I am hoping to see more of this, where RU actively attrits itself thru stupid attacks then gets counterattacked and wiped out.

 

[billbindc]

52 minutes ago, OldSarge said:

I certainly agree  with you, it was a dangerous move if the UAF actually did it. It just interests me that the UAF would waste valuable munitions on targets that have almost no value to them. The radars are fixed and not looking into Ukraine, and even if they were most TACAIR operations would fall below the radar horizon - if the public numbers are right.

I used this calculator. assuming 30m for sensor height.
https://www.translatorscafe.com/unit-converter/en-US/calculator/radar-horizon/

It could very easily have been a misunderstood target of opportunity but a blunder none the less. 

Also, it's *very* unlikely the Russians would advertently do this to themselves. They are already paranoid about regime survival and weakening their own strategic early warning systems is just not a thing.

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It could very easily have been a misunderstood target of opportunity but a blunder none the less. 

Also, it's *very* unlikely the Russians would advertently do this to themselves. They are already paranoid about regime survival and weakening their own strategic early warning systems is just not a thing.

Not at all sure I agree with this. The Putin regime wants to survive this war. It seems to have recently, MAYBE, decided that getting some sort of ceasefire/armistice is its best chance. Stating that they wouldn't mess with a radar whose primary purpose is to never be used, and to announce the end of the world if it is, does not accord with anything Putin has done since February 2022. He has an enormous tolerance for risk, and things like blowing the Khahovka dam, and the endless threats to cause a nuclear melt down prove it. Putin would sacrifice strategic assets in heartbeat to get out of the bind he has stuck himself into. 

It will be very revealing to see if there is a big increase in U.S. finger wagging about Ukrainian strikes in Russia. I am assuming we have pretty good information one way or the other on what happened here. Among other things the posted photos were taken at ground level at what is presumably a very secure facility. and it happens at the exact moment Russia starts to push for a cease fire. All sorts of things are just to convenient for the Kremlin here.

Edited May 24 by dan/california

[zinz]

2 hours ago, billbindc said:

No idea...but there should have been bright red "Do Not **** With This" warnings all over these targets on the Ukraine side. Kyiv actively hurt it's cause here. Acton with more detail: 

 

To be honest in those two pictures they mostly hit the building around the radar. It is extremely likely that this rooms were used for some form of c&c. Judging by these pictures alone for me they look definitely like something Ukraine wants to hit. Too bad for Russia to put two eggs in one basket. 

[OldSarge]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

It could very easily have been a misunderstood target of opportunity but a blunder none the less. 

Also, it's *very* unlikely the Russians would advertently do this to themselves. They are already paranoid about regime survival and weakening their own strategic early warning systems is just not a thing.

I think it is semi-official now the the UA press is talking it up. The article seems to indicate that this installation was not fully operational, that Russia is still relying upon the Dnepr station in Sevastopol. I can imagine that doesn't make the pucker factor at the Pentagon go down any.

"Now the confirmation comes from the photos that have appeared in the public domain. They indicate the very fact of damage dealt to the Voronezh-DM, and that some hits also landed on the staff accommodation buildings. The scale of destruction is unclear.."

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_uavs_hit_russian_voronezh_dm_over_the_horizon_radar_of_6000_km_observation_range-10612.html

Edited May 24 by OldSarge

[FancyCat]

Bah I wouldn't trust Russia at all. It is entirely in Russian interest to play up it's "paranoia" vis nuclear strikes from the West. Same "paranoia" has underpinned everything from the F-16s inbound to Ukraine, long range missiles, tanks, ammunition, Ukraine's status as a neutral base, the American biolabs designing COVID in Ukraine, the secret operating bases for NATO, etc.

Meanwhile actually signalers of Russian worry note the draining of personnel and equipment along Russia's NATO border, including air defense assets, hardly actions of a nation terrified of NATO invasion.

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Tough one to read.  We know that the Russian government only lies when their lips are moving, but there have been some weird signals coming out of the war.  This whole Kharkiv thing looks a lot less like shaping and more a weak punch while other areas are running out of gas.  The RA can’t take the levels of punishment we have seen indefinitely.  The lack of vehicles at Kharkiv and petering out quickly, increases in UA capability and strikes and all this general firing - maybe adds up to Putin needing a pause (and that is what it will be).

Weird that it has gone mainstream so quickly.  Normally there would be rumour and rumblings.  Of course it will be all the other conditions layered on the thing that will tell the tale - Ukraine stays conveniently neutral, recognizing taken lands, normalizing Russian trade.

Posturing for sure, but posturing for what?  The scenario we're hoping for is that the tea leave readings we've been doing here (Kharkiv + MoD purge + near term US support + costs to homefront we know are happening) does seem to indicate that Putin might be seeing time having run out.

Up until now, no matter how bad the battlefield was, Putin never once suggested anything less than total Ukraine surrender.  If these Russian sources are disseminating official Kremlin policy (I think we can assume that's the case), then something has changed in Putin's "victory" calculations.  Otherwise he would not be floating a 2015 style peace agreement at all.

This doesn't necessarily mean that Russia is about ready to collapse, but it does seem to indicate that Putin believes his negotiating position is weakening. 

Steve

[Eddy]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Tough one to read.  We know that the Russian government only lies when their lips are moving, but there have been some weird signals coming out of the war.  This whole Kharkiv thing looks a lot less like shaping and more a weak punch while other areas are running out of gas.  The RA can’t take the levels of punishment we have seen indefinitely.  The lack of vehicles at Kharkiv and petering out quickly, increases in UA capability and strikes and all this general firing - maybe adds up to Putin needing a pause (and that is what it will be).

Weird that it has gone mainstream so quickly.  Normally there would be rumour and rumblings.  Of course it will be all the other conditions layered on the thing that will tell the tale - Ukraine stays conveniently neutral, recognizing taken lands, normalizing Russian trade.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister states that the Russian 'ceasefire' thing is purely to derail Ukraine's peace summit. 

Kuleba: Putin wants to derail Ukraine's peace summit by claiming 'readiness for ceasefire' (kyivindependent.com)

I suppose it's the safest/default view for the Ukrainian govt. to take whether they believe it or not. 

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This doesn't necessarily mean that Russia is about ready to collapse, but it does seem to indicate that Putin believes his negotiating position is weakening. 

Or maybe that now is as good as it is going to get.

[FancyCat]

Quote

Stating that targeted a Russian strategic early-warning radar without reason is wrong.  The radar in Armavir was absolutely capable of providing early warning against theater-range missiles, most notably ATACMS.  Very different from single-purpose nuclear infrastrucutre. 1/2

I have some concerns about how politically wise this decision was, as it may have negative repercussions for Ukraine down the road in terms of targeting restrictions.  However, that doesn't mean it was militarily ineffective to carry out. 2/2

 

[OldSarge]

More expansion of defense manufacturing in the US. at Lima’s Joint Systems Manufacturing Center (JSMC).

"The JSMC is scheduled for a significant increase in government investment in the publicly-owned, privately-managed factory, with its budget increasing to $287.1 million in 2028 and $300 million in 2029 for plant upgrades, including more automated and robotic processes. The plant, which refurbishes existing tanks, will produce new hulls from raw products for the first time since the 1990s at its 369-acre campus off Buckeye Road, south of Lima"

https://www.limaohio.com/top-stories/2024/05/20/major-improvements-coming-to-limas-tank-plant/

[FancyCat]

Doubtful that Russian position is weakening. Some random Twitter people have noted perhaps Putin wants to declare Zelensky illegitimate and then use Yanukovych to bestow false legitimacy on any Russian backed government. Pulling Yanukovych out from the background to be pictured with Putin on a official visit not done since the beginning of the invasion indicates some possibility more so than signalling Russian weakness.

Quote

And this is likely why he brought Yanukovych…  Putin: “The legitimacy of the current head of state [of Ukraine] has ended”

Presence of disgraced former Ukrainian president Yanukovych as part of Putin’s delegation to Belarus for the first time since March 2022 is interesting

Putin and Russia's defence minister are currently in Belarus meeting with Lukashenko   Former Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych has also arrived in Belarus. The last time he did was in March 2022

 

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

It really does matter if it was dual purpose.  The US and West are not going to support a partner who actively targets Russia’s nuclear architecture. Actively targeting a nations strategic deterrence is a serious escalation we do not need. I understand if younger generations don’t get it but having grown up in that era the underlying risk calculus has not changed. This action - if confirmed as UA, which I suspect it was - demonstrates a clear gap between Ukrainian and Western targeting disciplines that may very well have been the primary reason we have been very deliberate and cautious about deep strikes into Russia. It is not “cowardice” or whatever emotional reason people throw around, it is a fundamental disconnect on targeting controls and authorities.