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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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19 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

So, with great regret, we most probably have first (confirmed) destruction of Himars.

Russian troops destroyed the M142 Himars system launcher belonging to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The destruction was the result of counter-battery fire conducted by the Russian 9K515 Tornado-S missile system. Nikanorovka, about 40 kilometers from the contact line at Horlivka.

After all this time and countless media flipflops on their part it frankly looks like proof that Russia Sux rather than Russia Rulez. At least in this narrow field.

Rybar says 50 km from the front line instead of 40. Either way, that's quite a distance.

 

Edited by cesmonkey
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1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Article is from RT, so credibility is not presumed to be great. If Singapore actually said that, it is possible that China is using assets and connections in Singapore to throw Putin a bone. The Taurus conversation intercept originated from Singapore as well. It feels like the beginning of a trend. 

 

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28 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

Rybar says 50 km from the front line instead of 40. Either way, that's quite a distance.

Last month it was a NASAMS. If Russia starts using Tornado-S in larger numbers it could become a serious problem.

Edited by Vanir Ausf B
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28 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Article is from RT, so credibility is not presumed to be great. If Singapore actually said that, it is possible that China is using assets and connections in Singapore to throw Putin a bone. The Taurus conversation intercept originated from Singapore as well. It feels like the beginning of a trend. 

 

So Singapore is a Russian or Chinese ally? Really?

I'm sure they still have decent economic relations.

https://www.mindef.gov.sg/web/portal/mindef/news-and-events/latest-releases/article-detail/2024/February/28feb24_speech
 

Quote

More recently, the US used their F-35s to locate and identify surface-to-air missile sites of Russian units in Ukraine, and this information was shared with NATO countries

 

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6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I am assuming western intelligence is chasing after this stuff and the real answer is likely classified for now. 

This particular flavour of secret squirrel behaviour always amuses me.

I have to assume the Russians already know what's in (or, as the case may be, not in) their tanks.

Yes, yes; "protecting sources and methods", but I do have to wonder whether widely publicising that the Russian armed forces are already on a steep de-modernisation slope would deflect some of the "all is woe" narrative.

Edited by JonS
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3 minutes ago, JonS said:

This particular flavour of secret squirrel behaviour always amuses me.

I have to assume the Russians already know what's in (or, as the case may be, not in) their tanks.

Yes, yes; "protecting sources and methods", but I do have to wonder whether widely publicising that the Russian armed forces are already on a steep de-modernisation slope would deflect some of the "all is woe" narrative.

With anything in these realms it is a cost/risk/payoff question.  A lot of what they are getting is likely from captured Russian equipment so "hidden assets" may be less of a consideration.  But if they do have people inside Russian manufacturing - and given the "money talks" dynamic of Russian corruption I am willing to bet they do - burning them by releasing insider info would have to lead to a significant gain.

And here is the problem, widely publicizing is going to sell well with people already onside (like us) but those against are simply going to call it "lies...more lies!" and ignore it.  So my guess is that it is being held inside the bubble and used to inform decisions. 

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22 hours ago, TheVulture said:

Modern hull thicknesses are probably in the 10-50mm range depending on the ship

Ok, but a lot of cargo ship hulls - including all tankers - ARE double skin and each layer is ~20mm giving ~40mm of spaced "armour equivalent" (although presumably they use a different grade of steel)

Edited by JonS
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1 hour ago, cesmonkey said:

Rybar says 50 km from the front line instead of 40. Either way, that's quite a distance.

 

Wouldn't it be great if Rybar announced "after 2 years of claiming to hit a HIMARS, we apparently finally did.  Maybe in 2026 we will get a second one!".

Looks like Ukraine is going to have to revisit/revise their risk minimization strategy.  There's no way Russia just got randomly lucky.  Which means there's something to counter whatever Russia did to get this hit.

Steve

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37 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

So Singapore is a Russian or Chinese ally? Really?

I'm sure they still have decent economic relations.

https://www.mindef.gov.sg/web/portal/mindef/news-and-events/latest-releases/article-detail/2024/February/28feb24_speech
 

 

Not an ally, but perhaps deciding that whatever the Chinese are offering is worth tilting a bit. If Singapore doesn't come up in the Ukraine related news for the next six months, perhaps it is random coincidence. If there are two more things out of there that advantage Putin in the next month...

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@Letter from Prague

Launch sequence ~30mins

Flight time ~ 3mins

Sensor-shooter time ~???

If the SS time were even 2 hours, that's still 'quick' enough to hit a hide. It's just not feasibly practical to redeploy every 30 mins or so. I mean, in theory it could be done, but the himars crews would be wrecked inside 72hrs.

 

Edited by JonS
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31 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

What is a time on target for ballistic missile? I would intuitively expect them to be quite slow, so this destroyed HIMARS sounds like Ukraine making a mistake and reusing a hiding place, instead of Russian ISR getting faster. But I dunno.

If reporting is accurate this was not a ballistic missile, but rather the Russian analog to GMLRS. The Russians claim a three minute "launch-ready" time for the system, but who knows.

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5 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Still a mystery that no Lancet caught a Himars off guard and the first kill is from a GMLRS. (Although I recall unconfirmed russian claims of destroyed himars in the past ) 

Lancet range is about 40 km so Ukraine could be holding them just out of range. This HIMARS was 50 km behind the front line so that tracks.

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On 3/4/2024 at 4:58 AM, Beleg85 said:

Could be a little difficult. "Guys, I am going for shopping to newest Krauss-Maffei Wegmann tank dealer saloon, do you need anything?"

Most countries by that time were discouraged from selling any serious, top-shelf military eqipment to UA. I think we all agreed it was wrong policy, so no point in further beating dead horse.

Well, to be fair, there is a specific reason that NO NATO country will sell (or give) their latest and greatest weapon systems to Ukraine. Please reference the pictures of the knocked out Abrams (along with others of Leopards, Bradley’s, et Al). It is a thing called “technological security.” One just doesn’t send their best and highest technology to a situation where the technology can end up being looted!

Case in point, when I was stationed in Japan as a mechanic on USMC F4-J Phantom II in 1970, the USN wouldn’t allow Us to send any into Vietnam because they were “too new, and would constitute a security risk!” And those would have been used in Direct Support of our own Marines on the ground!

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16 hours ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Yeah! Here is the vid

Thank you, that was excellent! The music sounded like a “ Sea Chanty” to this old Devil Dog New Englander! The fiddle and drum beat actually had me tapping my foot and smiling from ear to ear!

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8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Well,  its Russians saying 12 (ie, a lie) so double that as a rule of thumb. 

Perhaps it isn’t a lie. Perhaps those are the total number of under strength crew on the boat?

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