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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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37 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

having Mitch McConnell waive the white flag and surrender to Trumppublicans is not good for anybody,

To be fair he's not in the best of health. It may not be as much a surrender and he just cannot do the job any more - or can see that day coming rapidly. He certainly has given enough service to get a break.

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Russians continue own offensive in Donetsk oblast. 

Heavy clashes in Orlivka village west from Avdiivka. Our soldiers report about numerous Russian infantry, accumulating on eastern outskirt of the village and clashes in the center.

Russians have small, but steady advance in Bohdanivka and Ivanivske north from Bakhmut. Though, reportedly Russians already threw in the battle own reserve - elements of 31st air-assault brigade have been beginning to involve additionally to 98th airborne division, operating there in full composition. 

Russian artillery and aviation are striking Chasiv Yar.

Russian troops (mosltly DNR units) could to seize small SE part of Krasnohorivlka town north from Maryinka. They had a time to gain foothold there, but 3rd assault brigade later counter-aatcked them by elements of 1st and 2nd assault battalions and in fierce house-to-house clashes restored positions. 3rd brigade press-service say Russian soldiers rejected to surrender and were all eliminated or wounded. Total number of Russian losses there about 100 KIA/WIA.

On the map are Russian gains in Krasnohorivka before 3rd assault brigade attack. 

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2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

As much as I loath the guy... having Mitch McConnell waive the white flag and surrender to Trumppublicans is not good for anybody, least of all Ukraine:

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4494536-mcconnell-to-step-down-as-senate-gop-leader/

Steve

There's an argument that I find persuasive. McConnell is taking a page from Pelosi's book (indeed, it would not shock me in the slightest if they sat down and drew it up together) by retiring in this way so that he can heavily influence the make up of leadership after he is gone. An orderly exit in which he hamstrings Cruz, Paul, Hawley and Vance seems to be in the offing. Proof will be if some mix of the Johns (Borrasso, Thune, Cornyn) dominate the leadership afterwards. 

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https://mastodon.social/@Ukrainenews/112011138304920773

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Explosions in Nova Kakhovka: partisans blew up the headquarters of Putin's party!!

 

Partisans blew up the headquarters of Putin's party in occupied Nova Kakhovka in the Kherson region. 

 

As the Ukrainian Resistance movement reports, explosions rang out this morning near the entrance to the office of the United Russia party. It was also loud near the "polling station".

The resistance is still going on. We haven't written about it here lately. Well I am also sure lots of Ukrainians have left the occupied areas in the last 2 years. Anyone got some numbers on that? 

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Interesting thread from UKR serviceman from engineer-position building unit of engineer brigade (these units subordinated to Support Troops Command, not to Ground Forces Command) about why unlike Russians UKR forces have so poor fortifications (if they were built after the big war started), which often dig hastily with shovels and limided engineer means of brigades instead to be prepared beforehand by engineer troops of Support Command.

1. Why we have so small number of useful fortifications. According to General Staff directive of Marh 11 2016 the infantry unit, seizing area of defense is a disposer of defense lines, and the performer of works of building and equipping of this defense line is Support Forces, which have to do it according to requests of infantry brigades engineer service chiefs.

2. Many of chiefs of infantry brigade engineer services do not know how to plan ahead and send requests to Support Command untimely. When I arrive on the place, I have neither a map nor enginner justification of positions. As a rule I hear some sort: "Dig here from the stump to tree-plant". But this is not work in this way. The defense must be continous. Ше must have a depth and the enemy hadn't to bypass it. But infantry engineers in stupid way don't know how to plan this and we have to do it themselves or even to shut up and to gig there, where they to tell, because your business is to shut up and execute.

3. Why is thete no concrete? According to the order of Engineer Troops Chief and a resolution of Chief-in -Command of July 4 2017, the character of defensive positions determinates by Operative Tactical Groupment Commands - OTU (wood cladding) and Operative Strategical Troops Groupment Commands - OSUV (pouring with a concrete) after appropriate request of the infantry unit, seizing defense area.  Wood is provided by Engineer seervice of OTU, and concrete and technic are provided by OSUV. The second defense line have to be cladded with a wood and the thired defense line with a concrete. Why there is no this, because, again, brigade's engineer services have no will to denand this and OTU have no money, because deals (author used a word more corresponding to "frauds") with a wood is a separate theme. 

4.Concerning a concrete - I report. There is no one engineer unit doesn't supply with corrwsponding technic (like and NATO too). These works performs civilian technic, but this is contracts with business. Moscovites just rob technic for works, but we can't do in such way. And again - where is third defense line should be? No one infantry brigade on East didn't provide a project.

5. Where are the tractors? According to numerous directives, orders, normative documents to maintain the defense line have to a units of Support Forces with a supply of infantry units. Alas, an excavator doesn't work on the water - it needs a diesel, and soldier, who works in it have to rest somewhere and to eat something, 

6. As result - with all my respects to engineer services of 110th, 47th, 53rd brigades, you guys are guilty themselves, that your troops hadn't proper trenches. And to all other collegues in Twitetr I recommend to study documents and contact the proper address.    

7. Concering to our work. We work from 6:00 to 17:00 and build continuosly, having more poor funding and more vulnerable technic. Pay attantion, there are many fundrising requestes, but no one engineer unit doesn't ask about a tractor or excavator. Because we undcerstand - the needs of infantry is more important. But instead the infantry for some reasons considers us as useless appendage 

    

Edited by Haiduk
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Russian milbloggers write two UKR HIMARS hit the ceremony of awarding of 155th naval infantry brigade personnel in Olenivka (near Volnovakha). 

Reportedly 19 KIA, 12 WIA. Among killed three high-ranked officers, including deputy commander of brigade. The commander of brigade was wounded.

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I asked about the efficacy of this tactic - widely used by both Russians + Ukrainians - but often criticised as a waste of resources (pretty exclusively by those who have never been on the receiving end of it) - the Ukrainian commander, however, considered it extremely effective.

He points out that RuAF helicopters, flying at treetop level behind the line, are effectively invulnerable to ground fire. They can put a salvo of rockets relatively accurately on their positions and, unlike ground based rocket artillery, are invulnerable to counter-battery fire.

 

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Why Ukraine hasn't cleared Transnistria is something I don't understand. Technically, Ukraine would attack Moldova if they invaded Transnistria, but I don't think Moldova would mind.
This is just another piece of Russian influence that poisons its surroundings.

 

NEW | WARNING: Transnistria May Organize a Referendum on Annexation to Russia to Support Russian Hybrid Operation Against Moldova The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.

 

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42 minutes ago, poesel said:

Why Ukraine hasn't cleared Transnistria is something I don't understand. Technically, Ukraine would attack Moldova if they invaded Transnistria, but I don't think Moldova would mind.
This is just another piece of Russian influence that poisons its surroundings.

 

NEW | WARNING: Transnistria May Organize a Referendum on Annexation to Russia to Support Russian Hybrid Operation Against Moldova The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.

 

I think Ukraine wants to maintain it's moral high ground in this war and will only move into Transnistria if Moldova gives Ukraine their seal of approval.

My guess is the reason Moldova has not given said approval is because Russia may use it as a reason to declare war on that country. Don't think Moldova's AD systems are up to the task of defending against Russian missiles and drones, more than enough of those have already landed in that country without a war even being declared.

All of this reminds me of a meme I had saved on my hard drive since May 2022, guess it is relevant again.

 

transnistria.jpg

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51 minutes ago, poesel said:

The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both.

this is quite outdated no?

They already voted for russia to "protect" them. Likely just bull**** to get ukraine to keep troops there as the frontline desperately needs some reinforcing

https://www.dw.com/en/moldova-breakaway-transnistria-asks-russia-for-protection/a-68396033

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1 hour ago, Kraft said:

this is quite outdated no?

They already voted for russia to "protect" them. Likely just bull**** to get ukraine to keep troops there as the frontline desperately needs some reinforcing

https://www.dw.com/en/moldova-breakaway-transnistria-asks-russia-for-protection/a-68396033

No, that's from today. They did it before, however. It is speculated that they did it again now to distract from Navalny's death & funeral.

Transnistria isn't recognized as a country by anyone, even Russia itself. So attacking it would not create a casus belli. And frankly, Ukraine couldn't care less.

Even more interesting is that Moldova is ethnically very close to Romania. So instead of applying for EU membership, they could just join Romania. Which would make Transnistria a NATO area. But I'm not sure if the Romanian would want that to happen. It wouldn't be a very prosperous addition to the country.

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Now that is the kind of statement I would like to hear from more countries.

Honestly getting tired of seeing Ukrainian civilians be killed and Ukrainians not even being able to strike legitimate military targets inside Russia, with some of the weapons that they are provided.

You go Finland! 🇫🇮

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1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Now that is the kind of statement I would like to hear from more countries.

Honestly getting tired of seeing Ukrainian civilians be killed and Ukrainians not even being able to strike legitimate military targets inside Russia, with some of the weapons that they are provided.

You go Finland! 🇫🇮

Has Finland provided weaponry that realistically could be used to strike inside Russia? I tried to look it up but it seems Finland is coy about what they send, exactly.

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3 minutes ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Has Finland provided weaponry that realistically could be used to strike inside Russia? I tried to look it up but it seems Finland is coy about what they send, exactly.

I think artillery shells, no missiles. But they also havent disclosed everything 

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ISW has. a ton of details and analysis of the situation in Moldova. the short version is that that the Kremlin is making as. much trouble as it possibly can considering it has no way get more military forces there. Whether or not the ~battalion that has been rotting there. for decades has any meaningful capability seems rather doubtful.

They also detail various small gains the Russians may or may not have made up and down the L/DPR front. Small is the operative word, but they aren't quitting

Edited by dan/california
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33 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

I suppose this is what Rybar was talking about here?

 

Interesting.  Could be for disruption purposes only, but Rybar is thinking this is a recon mission for something larger.  Er, like what we were just talking about.  Though I think all of the pros I listed of crossing directly over the Dnepr only apply to that, not coming in from the Black Sea.

Steve

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Russian planes are no longer afraid to fly as close as possible to Ukrainian positions to drop controlled air bombs. It looks like a well-planned operation, with lancets destroying long-range air defenses and planes dropping bombs from high altitude to avoid SHORAD. This tactic is becoming more and more effective. I laugh when people here claim that the F-16 won't make a difference on the battlefield. After all, the F-16 is capable of carrying a wide variety of guided bombs. 50 F-16s is about the same as the Russians have SU34s on the southern sector of the front

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1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

Russian planes are no longer afraid to fly as close as possible to Ukrainian positions to drop controlled air bombs. It looks like a well-planned operation, with lancets destroying long-range air defenses and planes dropping bombs from high altitude to avoid SHORAD. This tactic is becoming more and more effective. I laugh when people here claim that the F-16 won't make a difference on the battlefield. After all, the F-16 is capable of carrying a wide variety of guided bombs. 50 F-16s is about the same as the Russians have SU34s on the southern sector of the front

This is a discussion we've had recently.  First, the glide bomb problem has been evident for a long time now and was really prevalent at Avdiivka.  Also at Krynky, at least until recently.  So nothing new about this threat at all, except that in some places Ukraine has at least temporarily caused Russia pain (see shot down planes last week) for such actions.

As for the usefulness of F-16s, everything is relative.  At the beginning of the war their probable usefulness was impractical because of how long it takes to get pilots trained.  That's been going on for about a year and since then the battlefield has changed.  Russian fixed wing attacks are now a critical part of Russia's ground strategy, whereas before it wasn't.

So as discussed at length some pages ago, the utility of F-16s has increased.  Which is good, because they should be available soon.

Steve

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