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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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32 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

A sustained commando raid? Piracy?

Honestly if it isn’t too muddy, ebikes with trailers might be the ideal option. Good speed, good range, low signature,  tiny logistical footprint. The trailer could hold a dozen or two FPV drones, or a mortar/AGL. Not sure how casevac would work though.

They have heavy drones already in motion for cas evac.  Or worst case do it the old fashion way and pull cas back to river.

If you go in light, fast and dispersed  one has about 85 km of river south of Kherson to play with.  No hard xing sites, fast boats and UAS resupply.

A corrosive sustained raiding campaign.  As a min it will force the RA to shift effort.  At best you might just get them to fold. 

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1 hour ago, Grigb said:

Quick question - do we have topic regarding Israel? I am subscribed to the RU channel of David Gendelman. He writes short but informative posts that clarify some aspects of Israel operation. 

This forum had two topics related to that conflict, both got closed because the conversation got heated.

https://community.battlefront.com/topic/143010-how-hot-is-israel-gonna-get/

https://community.battlefront.com/topic/143009-israel-war-thread/

I think Steve made it clear he does not want that conflict brought up on this topic. Unless it directly impacts the war in Ukraine.

Edited by Harmon Rabb
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I don't see how the Krinky bridgehead is any advantage to Ukraine if it's only held and not used to go farther inland.

AFU might destroy some Russians coming to attack the location, but UKR could do that better in a position where they are not hemmed in on a tiny piece of land and where they need to carry all supplies across a river.

It seems like it's not even a real bridgehead, but more of a contested area where both sides come and go, and nobody stays for very long since it's extremely exposed.

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29 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

This forum had two topics related to that conflict, both got closed because the conversation got heated.

https://community.battlefront.com/topic/143010-how-hot-is-israel-gonna-get/

https://community.battlefront.com/topic/143009-israel-war-thread/

I think Steve made it clear he does not want that conflict brought up on this topic. Unless it directly impacts the war in Ukraine.

Did not want to bring it here (it is completely separate). But I could not find another topic for that and decided to ask if there is one. Just sad to waste it. 

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10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I don't see how the Krinky bridgehead is any advantage to Ukraine if it's only held and not used to go farther inland.

I think the importance of Krynky comes down to options spaces. Krynky is valuable to UKR because it creates options and undecides the defense of this flank for RU (in @The_Capt language), not necessarily because they have a grand plan of how they're going to exploit it. It's important to RU for the same reason. While the air and sea dimensions are still quite fluid, it seems like a lot of the aspects of the ground war have stabilized and been decided for the time being, with Krynky appearing to be an exception.

Quote

It seems like it's not even a real bridgehead, but more of a contested area where both sides come and go, and nobody stays for very long since it's extremely exposed.

This rings true for me. A deathmatch arena for attrition as opposed to a jump-off point for larger operations. At least for now.

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2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

It seems like it's not even a real bridgehead, but more of a contested area where both sides come and go, and nobody stays for very long since it's extremely exposed.

Well, if you mean RU, then yes, they come and go. Mostly to hell.

Quote

Misha is a former Novosibirsk prisoner [zek] named Mikhail Maltsev, who was pardoned in September 2023 in exchange for a contract with the Ministry of Defense...

In December, Maltsev, 32, was dispatched to storm Krynki. Before departing, "realizing that he was going one way [only]," he left another video in which he addressed the "convicts":...They don't grant you vacation days. The wounded are not being evacuated; instead, they patch you up, let you lay for a week, and then send you back into battle. Our [dead] boys are lying about, decomposing, and are not being hauled away".

Maltsev spent four November days in a pit on such corpses. "His commanders forbade him to take them out. There were incoming fires. He lived on the dead [bodies]. Took cookies out of their pockets and ate them," says one of the [his] soldier [friends].

"If you ask questions, you quickly go to storm places from where you can't come out alive". Maltsev continues with his video address. — Guys, it's better to stay at home...We cannot survive here. We do not comprehend what a ****ing war is. They fool us whatever they want."

"I have no idea if I'm going to get out of here, only **** knows. Let the normal boys hear me and, at the very least, protect themselves and their closest friends [from this]. Hell is here. I'm giving you a video in the hopes that it will save someone," he says in a postscript to the video.

Maltsev and his whole group were destroyed during an attempt to attack the Krynki in December 2023.

The true face of RU war. I will not translate the article (yet), but auto-translation should suffice if you want to learn about the true horrors of the RU situation at Kherson direction.

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2 minutes ago, Grigb said:

The true face of RU war. I will not translate the article (yet), but auto-translation should suffice if you want to learn about the true horrors of the RU situation at Kherson direction.

I'm not uninformed about the Russian casualties.

I just don't see why the same resources Ukriane spends in a poor fighting position on the other side of a river couldn't be better put to use in other parts of the front where Russians are also charging forward.

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17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What is so hard to believe? There is no shortage of stories of unscrupulous Indian "agents" scamming people by offering them lies about overseas positions. My country has deported victims of such scams, Russia puts them in front of missiles. It is a bit of a surprise that some of them managed to be discharged.

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https://mil.in.ua/en/news/russia-creates-two-new-military-districts-in-reorganization-move/

Russia Creates Two New Military Districts in Reorganization Move

Russia has reorganized its military-administrative structure. Two new military districts have been deployed instead of the liquidated Western District, as stated in the new decree of the president of the Russian Federation.

On February 26, 2024, Vladimir Putin signed Decree No. 141, “On the Military-Administrative Division of the Russian Federation,” which reorganized the military-administrative structure of the Russian army.

According to the decree, the Western Military District in the Russian Federation is divided into two smaller ones: Moscow and Leningrad. Instead, the Northern Fleet lost the status of a district.

 

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37 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm not uninformed about the Russian casualties.

I just don't see why the same resources Ukriane spends in a poor fighting position on the other side of a river couldn't be better put to use in other parts of the front where Russians are also charging forward.

They are not charging forward. They crawl. This is their advance in 4 month and 16 thousand dead.

fTfwxq.jpg

Their wild charge after capturing Avdiivka is 3.5 km. They aren't charging anywhere. They crawl and push. It is not strategically relevant. 

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New UKR tactics

Quote

There is unverified report that Ukrainians are employing large Baba Yaga drones as mother carriers for FPV drones. Yaga carries six kamikaze drones.  The Mother will most likely behave as a repeater once she enters the operational area. It is logical to assume that Yaga is controlled via starlink. Information should be reviewed, and vigilance should be increased.

UPDATE: The information has been corroborated by guys on the front lines in several areas!

 

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30 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

What is so hard to believe? There is no shortage of stories of unscrupulous Indian "agents" scamming people by offering them lies about overseas positions. My country has deported victims of such scams, Russia puts them in front of missiles. It is a bit of a surprise that some of them managed to be discharged.

What is hard to believe is that anyone outside of Russia would be desperate or ignorant enough to come anywhere near Russian military service/employment.  “You will be a helper.  A helper in spending Ukrainian ammunition.”

I mean in year 1, maybe.  Year 2?  Year 3…c’mon.  Beyond the morale and ethical equation (and I get that is a western bias), there are just too many stories of foreigners being cannon fodder.  And now this one too.

 

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Just now, The_Capt said:

What is hard to believe is that anyone outside of Russia would be desperate or ignorant enough to come anywhere near Russian military service/employment.  “You will be a helper.  A helper in spending Ukrainian ammunition.”

I mean in year 1, maybe.  Year 2?  Year 3…c’mon.  Beyond the morale and ethical equation (and I get that is a western bias), there are just too many stories of foreigners being cannon fodder.  And now this one too.

 

I think a trip to parts of India would dispel your disbelief. 

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7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What is hard to believe is that anyone outside of Russia would be desperate or ignorant enough to come anywhere near Russian military service/employment.  “You will be a helper.  A helper in spending Ukrainian ammunition.”

I mean in year 1, maybe.  Year 2?  Year 3…c’mon.  Beyond the morale and ethical equation (and I get that is a western bias), there are just too many stories of foreigners being cannon fodder.  And now this one too.

 

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.
India has about 1,4 billion people. It has more than enough misinformed or uninformed stupids (like any other country, but India has a larger population)

Edited by Fernando
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21 minutes ago, Grigb said:

They are not charging forward. They crawl. This is their advance in 4 month and 16 thousand dead.

You could say the exact sme thing about Krynky. The Russians are crawling forward there too.

But that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying they charge into the line of fire and get shot dead. Ukraine doesn't need to do that in Krynky in a position that is also bad for them.

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1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

What is hard to believe is that anyone outside of Russia would be desperate or ignorant enough to come anywhere near Russian military service/employment.  “You will be a helper.  A helper in spending Ukrainian ammunition.”

I mean in year 1, maybe.  Year 2?  Year 3…c’mon.  Beyond the morale and ethical equation (and I get that is a western bias), there are just too many stories of foreigners being cannon fodder.  And now this one too.

 

Very likely they have not heard these stories. I'm guessing your average westerner also knows very little about the nitty gritty of what is going on. Given India's relationship with Russia and based anecdotally on comments by Indians I have seen on various social media, I think a lot of Indians will have a different perception of Russia to ours.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Hell, I don’t need to spend the ticket money.  Pretty sure I could find completely out of touch here in Canada.  It still boggles my mind. 

A Canadian family with a youtube channel called Countryside Acres moved to Russia last year because they believe they are freer there to express their bigoted views but ran into some problems with banking rules. They posted a video complaining about this but rapidly deleted it and then issued a grovelling response saying they weren't really upset with Russia. Freedom!

Edited by Offshoot
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2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

You could say the exact sme thing about Krynky. The Russians are crawling forward there too.

No, I could not. It is UKR who is crawling forward there. Not RU. 

KQrGe7.jpg

 

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

But that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying they charge into the line of fire and get shot dead. Ukraine doesn't need to do that in Krynky in a position that is also bad for them.

UKR do not charge into the line of fire in Krynki. They mostly do what they do in Avdiivka - defend it. And it is not a bad position to defend.

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49 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

What is hard to believe is that anyone outside of Russia would be desperate or ignorant enough to come anywhere near Russian military service/employment.  “You will be a helper.  A helper in spending Ukrainian ammunition.”

I mean in year 1, maybe.  Year 2?  Year 3…c’mon.  Beyond the morale and ethical equation (and I get that is a western bias), there are just too many stories of foreigners being cannon fodder.  And now this one too.

 

In addition to poverty that is beyond mere destitution I suspect most of these guys are basically illiterate. What little coverage is on the radio in Hindi and other Indian languages about the war probably has only a passing familiarity with the truth, if that.

38 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Hell, I don’t need to spend the ticket money.  Pretty sure I could find completely out of touch here in Canada.  It still boggles my mind. 

The hardest thing for me about analyzing U.S. politics is making myself that this many people can be this stupid. My brain rejects this at some fundamental level, and I have to compensate for it constantly.

34 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

You could say the exact sme thing about Krynky. The Russians are crawling forward there too.

But that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying they charge into the line of fire and get shot dead. Ukraine doesn't need to do that in Krynky in a position that is also bad for them.

The thing about Krnky is that it is better for the Ukrainians than you think, Because the terrain on the right/Ukrainian held bank is about 200 feet higher the than the left/Russian held side. That is in addition to the very constricted approach lanes someone else mentioned. So Ukrainian troops in Krynky benefit from a lot more fire support from the other side of the river than you might think, alot more actually which is why they are still there.

Edited by dan/california
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