Grigb Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 7 minutes ago, Kinophile said: Or air launched? Flight angle seems S-> A though. To clarify - it was hit overland and snotted down near Mariupol? It was hit in RU, Krasnodar kray 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omae2 Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 hours ago, billbindc said: Where could I find that plan or a good description of it? It would help with some of the people I deal with. If i were you i wouldn't waste energy on this types of peoples. I'm talking from experience. The best you can get is that they will be silent around you until some set back happen with the Ukrainians, than they will start again. If somebody is believing in something you cannot persuaded them with facts, it does not matter if its religion or ideology. Whats even worst is that they gonna dislike you because of cognitive dissonance. Even if you are right and prove it they will have negative feelings towards you and you still can't change their views. So unless you want them to dislike you, i would avoid the subject. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 This A-50 shoot down is interesting. Too far into Russian airspace to think that a Russia asset shot it down (though it is possible), too far away to be Patriot or any other Ukrainian system based on Ukrainian soil. That leaves three possibilities: 1. A Ukrainian aircraft got through enough of the air defense system to fire at least 2x AA missiles 2. Ukrainian special forces got close enough by boat to use an otherwise non-portable AA system 3. The plane was flying low enough to be hit by MANPAD and a special forces group positioned themselves along an established flight path I'm going with boat and significant ground based AA system as my first guess. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Video footage of the plane's damaged bits. The man says nothing significant. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Grigb said: It was hit in RU, Krasnodar kray Another huge UKR SOF success. Or the Ukrainians have a new drone that can carry AAMs. It seems clear the attacks on Russian AEW and airborne command and control systems are designed to give the F-16s more freedom to operate when they arrive. It might also really improve the success rate of UKR long range drone strikes. Edited February 23 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tux Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: This A-50 shoot down is interesting. Too far into Russian airspace to think that a Russia asset shot it down (though it is possible), too far away to be Patriot or any other Ukrainian system based on Ukrainian soil. That leaves three possibilities: 1. A Ukrainian aircraft got through enough of the air defense system to fire at least 2x AA missiles 2. Ukrainian special forces got close enough by boat to use an otherwise non-portable AA system 3. The plane was flying low enough to be hit by MANPAD and a special forces group positioned themselves along an established flight path I'm going with boat and significant ground based AA system as my first guess. Steve I might be able to believe number 1 was possible if this wasn’t a literal AWACS that got shot down - it was the air defence system! I’m going with number 3. The people videoing it comment on how low the aircraft is flying and modern MANPADS can reach pretty high up in any case. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 6 minutes ago, Grigb said: Video footage of the plane's damaged bits. The man says nothing significant. Yeah, planes lose their entire tail section all the time. No biggy. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twisk Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) Doing a quick search there appears to be a Russian air base about 20-30 miles (20-50km) away. I'm not that familiar with aircraft but the airfield does point towards Kanveskaya. Getting into Tom Clancy territory but the plane regularly makes an approach to land along the same route. A Ukrainian team places themselves along that route with some sort of AA system. https://www.google.com/maps/place/46°03'33.2"N+38°13'50.5"E/@46.0595425,38.2250318,2082m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m4!3m3!8m2!3d46.059209!4d38.230697?entry=ttu edit: there are a few other airbases that are farther away. But that could explain the low height. Aircraft preparing to land and routinely lands at the same airport and roughly the same time. If you know the specs of the plane along with this information you could identify points along the route where an ambush would be feasible. https://www.google.com/maps/place/44°57'42.1"N+37°59'50.6"E/@44.9704883,37.9776557,15043m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m7!1m2!2m1!1sairfield!3m3!8m2!3d44.961681!4d37.997397?entry=ttu https://www.google.com/maps/place/44°57'42.1"N+37°59'50.6"E/@44.9704883,37.9776557,15043m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m7!1m2!2m1!1sairfield!3m3!8m2!3d44.961681!4d37.997397?entry=ttu Edited February 23 by Twisk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grigb Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) I made simple map Regarding Boat - they managed to do this So, i think Boaty McBoatface with a couple of ASRAAM is possible. The range is around 50 km. And it is infrared homing. Edited February 23 by Grigb 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHO Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: That's not going to happen unless Putin is deposed and someone smarter takes the throne. And when "smarter one takes the throne" then happens what? The worst deed of idea-crazy European / Americat leftist politicians is to instill the the understanding that "whoever takes the throne in Russia" will inherit the "****ed up throne". Yet if he/she shows even a glimplse of being accomodating then the cheque will grow up times more just because he/she may look like even considering accepting the check. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHO Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: That's not going to happen unless Putin is deposed and someone smarter takes the throne. Delete please. A mispost of the verbatim previous post Edited February 23 by IMHO 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHO Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 41 minutes ago, Tux said: The plane was flying low enough to be hit by MANPAD and a special forces group positioned themselves along an established flight path 43 minutes ago, Tux said: I’m going with number 3. Yeah, that's logical You put up in the skies at a 100x-200x cost a radar that is is every respect worse than a land based radar elevated at a mast. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) 59 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: This A-50 shoot down is interesting. Too far into Russian airspace to think that a Russia asset shot it down (though it is possible), too far away to be Patriot or any other Ukrainian system based on Ukrainian soil. That leaves three possibilities: 1. A Ukrainian aircraft got through enough of the air defense system to fire at least 2x AA missiles 2. Ukrainian special forces got close enough by boat to use an otherwise non-portable AA system 3. The plane was flying low enough to be hit by MANPAD and a special forces group positioned themselves along an established flight path I'm going with boat and significant ground based AA system as my first guess. Steve That would explain the flares. And that video seemed fairly low level. Edited February 23 by The_Capt 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHO Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) 20 minutes ago, The_Capt said: That would explain the flares. And that video seemed fairly low level. AFAIK Il-22 survived. 20 minutes ago, The_Capt said: This A-50 shoot down is interesting. Too far into Russian airspace to think that a Russia asset shot it down (though it is possible), too far away to be Patriot or any other Ukrainian system based on Ukrainian soil. That leaves three possibilities Are you joking? 140km for PAC-2 is not impossible? And Ukrainians are really allowed to put their best into creativity unlike Russian MoD. Edited February 23 by IMHO 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 1 hour ago, omae2 said: If i were you i wouldn't waste energy on this types of peoples. I'm talking from experience. The best you can get is that they will be silent around you until some set back happen with the Ukrainians, than they will start again. If somebody is believing in something you cannot persuaded them with facts, it does not matter if its religion or ideology. Whats even worst is that they gonna dislike you because of cognitive dissonance. Even if you are right and prove it they will have negative feelings towards you and you still can't change their views. So unless you want them to dislike you, i would avoid the subject. These are political, not personal conversations. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) Pravda claims S-200 system shot down the A-50 https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2024/02/23/7443442/ Edited February 23 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHO Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 29 minutes ago, The_Capt said: That would explain the flares. And that video seemed fairly low level. I'm sorry. What booly flares? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 (edited) Wait, I think there might be confusion of which plane where. There's reports of both A-50 and a transport plane. For example, liveuamap places the A-50 near the front and the transport deep in Russia. Is it one plane or two? It's possible Ukrainian air defense shot down the A-50 neaby and something else happened with the transport plane. Edited February 23 by Letter from Prague 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMHO Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Flares are against MANPADS / SR IR AAMs and no one flies AWACS so close. Really, for a radar thant covers hundreds of kilometers to fly is it expose a 300-700M MUSD platform to danger in return to like 1-2% of its detection distance? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 Rybar credits Russia for the downing. Who knows what the truth is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said: Wait, I think there might be confusion of which plane where. There's reports of both A-50 and a transport plane. For example, liveuamap places the A-50 near the front and the transport deep in Russia. Is it one plane or two? It's possible Ukrainian air defense shot down the A-50 neaby and something else happened with the transport plane. I diont think its a transport plane, but a Ilyushin Il-22M “Coot”. That and the A50 often operate in tandem, AIUI. Like with the last A50 shoot down. So here the A50 is hit at relatively low level and makes splody hugs with the ground, while the IL-22M is also struck but lands, sadly.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 14 minutes ago, IMHO said: Flares are against MANPADS / SR IR AAMs and no one flies AWACS so close. Really, for a radar thant covers hundreds of kilometers to fly is it expose a 300-700M MUSD platform to danger in return to like 1-2% of its detection distance? Airborne radar gives a much more different view of the ground and airspace, no? I don't think it's an apples-to-apples comparison of radar range... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 3 hours ago, Kinophile said: A50 strike video with eng translate/ Looks like it fired off all its flares, 1, maybe 2 missiles were deceived but the rest of the salvo kept going. 18 minutes ago, IMHO said: I'm sorry. What booly flares? I do not think we are talking about the same incident. The video above reports to show a low level A-50 being shot down. It fires off a string of flares, which are not normally a counter for long range radar guided systems. Hence Steve's MANPAD theory - which would make some sense given the video. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kinophile Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 9 minutes ago, cesmonkey said: Rybar credits Russia for the downing. Who knows what the truth is. Well he would...cue massive eyeroll at Russian milblogger blinkered chavinism... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 23 Share Posted February 23 16 minutes ago, IMHO said: Flares are against MANPADS / SR IR AAMs and no one flies AWACS so close. Really, for a radar thant covers hundreds of kilometers to fly is it expose a 300-700M MUSD platform to danger in return to like 1-2% of its detection distance? Unless it was landing or on approach...exactly where I would put SOF teams with MANPADs. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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