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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/how_many_russian_landing_craft_left_in_black_sea_after_caesar_kunikov_has_sank-9516.html

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Note that even though russia is technically capable of replenishing the losses by producing new ships, each loss of such a ship takes a heavy toll on the Kremlin's budget. Because any Project 775 lost cannot be replaced with a new vessel of the same class, the only alternative is to build a Project 11711: $160 million per unit as of 2012 price tag, now amounting to $214 million adjusted for inflation.

That was the cost of an old generation of this project called Ivan Gren. Since then, russia has updated Project 11711 to the current Vladimir Andreev class. Two vessels of the modern iteration have been under construction since 2019 and are expected to enter service in 2025 and 2026.

They are larger: 8,000 tons vs. 6,600 tons of displacement. Therefore, despite the relevant cost is unknown, we can safely assume their cost is much higher compared to the older version, the difference could amount to more than 21% due to a proportional increase in the cost of all its components and mechanisms.

 

Edited by Kinophile
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https://mil.in.ua/en/news/netherlands-joins-coalition-to-supply-ukraine-with-drones/

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Latvia initiated the establishment of the Drone Coalition. The initiative was announced during a meeting between its Defense Minister Andris Sprūds and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umierov in December 2023.

In addition to the Netherlands, Sweden and the United Kingdom have already joined the Drone Coalition.

 

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1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Yeah, and where are they going to get the shipyards and trained workers to build these things all at the same time?  Ukraine has made ship building in the Black Sea pretty damned near suicidal.  That cuts down on capacity by quite a bit.  Building new facilities takes a lot of time and even more money.

Yes, every large ship Ukraine sinks means capacity lost for at least 5 years even under ideal circumstances.  And yet Putin wants to keep this war going. 

This is a reminder of why Russia either surrenders or pushes Ukraine to the point of accepting full surrender.  Some sort of frozen conflict like 2014-2022, where hostilities were only reduced rather than eliminated, leaves Ukraine with a free hand to continue sinking ships.  That's untenable for Russia.

Is it just me, or do others think Putin got Russia into quite the tight spot? 🙂

Steve

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10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

These drones could in theory also become small torpedo-bearers. Their payloads are easily reaching something circa 200kg, which seems not far from weight of light torpedoes already used by various navies. There are technical limitations here probably, but stationing several clandestine drones 2-3 kms from target and shooting a volley would leave very little time for ship crews to react.

http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-Maritime-Drones.html

Hard times for sailors, that's for sure.

Or create a bigger drone which would be in essence a self-propelled torpedo tube for one of those ex-Soviet wake homing monsters.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_65_torpedo

You would not need more than 2 of those drones on station at the same time. Once the wake homer is in the water it can swim at 50 knots (27 nautical miles range) or at 30 knots (whopping 54 miles). If released from 10 miles away at an unsuspecting ship, in about 10 minutes that ship should be in two halves. And in the worst case even if the target ship notices the incoming torpedo and tries to escape, it just acquired a Moby Dick on its stern going after it for miles and miles. Scary weapon.

 

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The SBU detained a traitor who wanted to hand over the latest developments of Ukraine in the field of military shipbuilding to the special services of the Russian Federation and Iran

As a result of a multi-level special operation in Mykolaiv, an engineer-designer of the strategic enterprise of Ukroboronprom was arrested "red handed".

The official secretly copied and tried to "leak" technical documentation on Ukrainian secret developments to foreign special services.

According to SBU counter-intelligence data, the attacker was supposed to give information to two "clients" at once. The first is a Russian who works at one of the machine-building plants of the Russian Federation and cooperates with the special services of the aggressor country.

Another "customer" of the intelligence turned out to be an Iranian citizen who had previously been convicted of espionage in Ukraine.

Now the foreigner is in a Middle Eastern country and works for Iranian intelligence under the "cover" of an official of a local company for the production of high-tech products.

Both foreigners acted separately from each other, and kept in touch with the traitorous Ukrainian engineer through anonymous chats in the messenger.

According to the available data, foreign special services hoped to obtain the latest developments of Ukraine in order to establish the serial production of their own components for warships.

Among the main companies that planned to use Ukrainian technologies were Russian factories that build ships for the Russian navy.

However, SBU counter-intelligence officers worked ahead of time - promptly exposed and gradually documented the traitor's criminal actions. Thanks to this, an attempt to transfer strategically important developments of Ukraine abroad was thwarted.

During the search, a mobile phone was seized from the detainee, which he used to copy secret documents and communicate with foreign spies.

Currently, the investigators of the Security Service informed him of the suspicion under part 2 of Art. 111 of the Criminal Code of Ukraine (treason committed under martial law).

The perpetrator is in custody. He faces life imprisonment.

An investigation is ongoing to establish all the circumstances of the crime and bring the perpetrators to justice.

The special operation was carried out by SBU employees in the Mykolaiv region under the procedural guidance of the Mykolaiv specialized prosecutor's office in the field of defense of the Southern region.

SBU caught a spy trying to relay shipbuilding(/drone) information to russia and iran.

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9 hours ago, Kinophile said:

@Haiduk etc

All misiles were intercepted on approaches to Kyiv. Though we have impacts in Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro,  Khmelnytskyi and Kharkiv oblasts

Here is giaint crater on the place of falling of intercepted missile near Bucha. It could not necessarily be a ballistic missile, but cruise too - soils NW from Kyiv are soft with many of sand, so even lesser impact can throw out many of soil. In nearby village seven houses were damaged by shockwave

Вирва, мов озеро, вибиті вікна, потрощені дахи − наслідки ракетного удару по Київщині  

 

Total statistic of the strike - 26 missiles launched/13 intercepted:

- 12 Kh-101 (8 intercepted)

- 2 Kalibr (2)

- 4 Kh-59 (2)

- 6 Iskander-M/ KN-23 (1)

- 2 S-300 (0)

Edited by Haiduk
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11 hours ago, Centurian52 said:

I believe we tested nukes in space. The EMP didn't fry absolutely everything. Just everything over roughly a continent-sized region, which is probably fine if your opponent is on the other side of the world. I believe the biggest problem with nukes in space is that it puts everyone on a hair trigger since the amount of time you have to respond to a nuclear attack is basically zero. Every time it passes overhead (which, in Low Earth Orbit, would be about once every 30 minutes) there is a chance that you could be facing a practically instantaneous first strike. Escalation risks skyrocket to the point that it just isn't a viable concept.

If we are talking about this thing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime

That was back in 1962 and was not a precision weapon back then.  The major issue is that the effects do not stay “over there” as in space “over there” is the entire planet.

“In the months that followed these man-made radiation belts eventually caused six or more satellites to fail,[13] as radiation damaged their solar arrays or electronics, including the first commercial relay communication satellite, Telstar, as well as the United Kingdom's first satellite, Ariel 1.[14]Detectors on Telstar, TRAAC, Injun, and Ariel 1 were used to measure distribution of the radiation produced by the tests.[15]

In 1963, it was reported that Starfish Prime had created a belt of MeV electrons.[16] In 1968, it was reported that some Starfish electrons had remained in the atmosphere for 5 years.[17]

 

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26 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Like most Russian propaganda, it's probably not really meant to be believed or disbelieved.  It's meant to cause arguments and distrust,  widen divisions and increase mutual suspicion between those who chose to believe it and those who chose not to. Whether Putin would actually prefer Biden or not is a completely unrelated Issue. 

It's meant to generate heat,  not shed light.

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23 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Likely this statement  is further part of fallout after Carlson interviewed, which received mixed- to say mildly- reception at Kremlin itself. Putin positions himself as sane, responsible leader equal to other two "empires" (USA and China) but clearly above Europeans and others. Very likely it is also concious help for Trump in elections process; Republican media will have something to feed on in discussions about who is in fact pro/anti Russia.

9 hours ago, JonS said:

ll the lightweight (2-300kg) torpedoes seem to be anti-submarine, not anti ship

"Sea Baby" already has payload of 850kg, and this is enough to bite any ship.

http://www.hisutton.com/Ukraine-USV-Sea-Baby.html

Perhaps barrier is seaworthiness of such small drone carrier or some issues with realease mechanisms, but frankly I wonder why we did not see such devices in action yet. Perhaps we will.

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/02/14/joe-biden-could-send-millions-of-artillery-shells-to-ukraine-for-free-tomorrow-and-its-perfectly-legal/?sh=539a38ba20c7

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"The law caps annual transfers of so-called “excess defense articles” at a total value of $500 million a year. But the same law doesn’t dictate how much value the president assigns to a particular weapon. He in theory could price an item at zero dollars."

"Biden only rarely has used his EDA authority for Ukraine. And where he has used it, lately it’s been a part of complex “ring-trades” where the U.S. government gives excess weapons to third countries—Ecuador and Greece, to name two—then encourages those same countries directly or indirectly to give to Ukraine some of their own surplus weapons."

"Why Biden hasn’t already put in motion this plan is unclear. It’s possible—likely, even—he prefers to hold out for $60 billion in fresh funding, which gives him more options for buying, or even developing from scratch, a wide array of weapons for Ukraine.

But once Biden decides, as many other observers already have decided, that Russia-aligned Republicans never will approve more money for Ukraine, he could lean on his EDA authority—and speed millions of shells to Ukraine’s starving batteries."

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Sorry, know this takes discussion in a new direction that is way above the CM level, still, Nukes in space, Trump NATO fallout.
Direct relevance to this thread, would Putin attack Ukraine or any NATO country in the future if the country being attacked had nuclear weapons? Apparently the Germans are asking this question for themselves. EU disunity and German unification agreements are listed as the current biggest obstacles. 

https://www.dw.com/en/germany-rethinks-bundeswehr-and-deterrence/a-68248353

As US resolve and reliability come into ever greater question, the thinking here appears to be if Iran and North Korea can/do have them, Israel, India and Pakistan do have them, why not the rest of the west, nuclear proliferation being the new deterrence? Note South Korea and Japan are asking this question also, albeit re deterring China/North Korea. 

Article also includes interesting chart on NATO defense spending 2014-2022 compared to 2023 by country.

Very interested in all opinions, but especially those in European countries.

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8 hours ago, Kinophile said:

The flip side is Biden using it to remind people that Russia is actually a threat, making a pro-Russia stance in the House more tricky. Timing seems...opportune.

The reminder very emphatically did not come from the White House. It came from GOP Rep Mike Turner and Jake Sherman actually did a press briefing to express bewilderment that a Republican on the Gang of Eight would publicize the secret subject of a meeting scheduled for the following day.

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re naval drones, US 'Replicator' initiative. 'Hellscape' thinking sounds encouraging.

https://news.usni.org/2024/02/14/navy-will-stand-up-lethal-drone-unit-later-this-year-first-replicator-usvs-picked

"The second squadron will focus on small USVs, building on the medium and large USVs that the Unmanned Surface Vessel Division ONE (USVDIV-1) has been experimenting with for the last two years, USNI News understands.

Last year, the Navy experimented with its medium and large USVs to operationalize test platforms with real units as the Pacific Fleet refines concepts for using unmanned systems.

Those concepts are set to inform the emerging “hellscape” concept that would use swarms of unmanned platforms to thwart a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, USNI News previously reported."

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5 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Or create a bigger drone which would be in essence a self-propelled torpedo tube for one of those ex-Soviet wake homing monsters.

You would not need more than 2 of those drones on station at the same time. Once the wake homer is in the water it can swim at 50 knots (27 nautical miles range) or at 30 knots (whopping 54 miles). If released from 10 miles away at an unsuspecting ship, in about 10 minutes that ship should be in two halves. And in the worst case even if the target ship notices the incoming torpedo and tries to escape, it just acquired a Moby Dick on its stern going after it for miles and miles. Scary weapon.

 

Putting a lot of faith in a soviet era torpedo. Plus does UKR actually have them? They're almost 5 tons... That's a heavy weapon, to be fired from a heavy-ish platform, no? Plus stuck in its current capabilities. 

The suicide drone approach is much more reliable, smaller, easier to move on land and hide it, faster, networkable and can be expanded...?

 

Edited by Kinophile
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24 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The reminder very emphatically did not come from the White House. It came from GOP Rep Mike Turner and Jake Sherman actually did a press briefing to express bewilderment that a Republican on the Gang of Eight would publicize the secret subject of a meeting scheduled for the following day.

Yup never underestimate the excitability of selfish fools. WH doesn't seem particularly "angry". Definitely a plus in the Russia = Bad narrative. 

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8 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Yup never underestimate the excitability of selfish fools. WH doesn't seem particularly "angry". Definitely a plus in the Russia = Bad narrative. 

Congress is adjourning until 2/28 and will come back to schedule that compacts two crucial budget votes into the first two weeks. The sudden adjournment is telling...in that moving it forward seems clearly designed to avoid a discharge petition. 

The story here isn't the self fools...it's that the Speaker of the House is clearly going to avoid giving Ukraine aid at all costs. 

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https://www.reuters.com/world/india/kites-battle-drones-farmers-take-police-during-india-protests-2024-02-15/

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AMBALA, India, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Farmers protesting in India this week are using a homemade arsenal to counter the state-of-the-art weaponry of the security forces trying to disperse them: they're flying kites to ensnare police drones carrying tear gas canisters.

Barrage balloons 2.0

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