How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Carolus]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

This is the only must pass bill this year, aside from the actual budget. I would even forgive the Dems for protecting Johnson until November if it got this thru. It isn't like anything else more significant than naming a post office is going to pass regardless.

From what I read online the bill is guaranteed to get killed on the floor of the House.

[Bulletpoint]

Despite massive casualties, the Russians keep inching closer to encircling Avdiivka. They are now less than 1 km away from the main road into the city.

To my eyes, the situation doesn't look good. Not sure how the Ukrainians can keep supplying their positions in the fields east of Avdiivka even now.

Time to pull back, or am I overlooking something important here? Apart from the huge Russian losses.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

8 hours ago, billbindc said:

aluzhny actually admitted that he didn't deliver when in his Economist interview he called it his own personal mistake that he underestimated Russia's ability to regenerate force and resist the Ukrainian offensive this summer.

He might have admitted that mistake, and of course he made mistakes we do not know of, but as I wrote, I do not think he is being blamed for any of them in particular by the public opinion. In other words, his mistakes seem to be excusable. Roughly at the same time as the interview, the Economist published two good opinion pieces about the Summer offensive which showed at least a part of the decision process and how the Ukrainian staff navigated between the options, resisted pressure from the US advisers to make a massed conventional mech attack, etc. - generally, that it was an extremely difficult if not impossible job. I think his mistakes are considered par for the course.

8 hours ago, billbindc said:

With the fate of the nation at stake, I think it's pretty clearly Zelensky's role to decide if Zaluzhny should stay on the job and the latter making public statements about what should be done in opposition to the administration he serves isn't making that any easier.

Actually, I have trouble finding "public statements about what should be done in opposition to the administration he serves" by Zaluzhny. Could you specify which ones do you have in mind? I only remember Zelenski's administration throwing a fit about the word "stalemate" in the Economist interview, but that hardly qualifies as a reason for bona fide criticism.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

10 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

The Zalushny sounds almost identical to MacArthur in that he is publicly challenging his Commander in Chief. I expect it will have the same result if he doesn’t back off.

Could you specify what public statements by Zalushny brought you to that view?

[OBJ]

Zelenskyy - Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi,

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2024/02/05/ukraines-president-confirms-hes-thinking-about-dismissing-countrys-military-chief.html

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he was weighing a possible dismissal of the country's top military officer, a prospect that has shocked the nation fighting Russia's invasion and worried Kyiv's Western allies.

Asked whether he was considering the ouster of Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Zelenskyy told Italian RAI TV in an interview released late Sunday that he was thinking about it as part of a broader issue of setting the country's path. He said that “a reset, a new beginning is necessary,” and it's "not about a single person but about the direction of the country’s leadership.”

"I’m thinking about this replacement, but you can’t say here we replaced a single person,” Zelenskyy said. “When we talk about this, I mean a replacement of a series of state leaders, not just in a single sector like the military. If we want to win we must all push in the same direction, convinced of victory, we cannot be discouraged, let our arms fall, we must have the right positive energy.”

Zelenskyy's comments marked his first confirmation that he was mulling to fire the widely popular general, a possibility that caused an uproar in Ukraine and delighted the Kremlin as the war approaches its second anniversary.

According to Ukrainian and Western media reports, Zelenskyy last week offered Zaluzhnyi to resign, but the general refused. Zaluzhnyi hasn’t commented on the issue.

The tensions between the president and Zaluznyi have been rising as the country grapples with dire ammunition and personnel shortages following a failed summer counteroffensive. The need for a broad mobilization to fill the ranks has reportedly been one of the areas of disagreement.

Zelenskyy said at the end of last year that he had turned down the military’s request to mobilize up to 500,000 people, demanding more details about how it would be organized and paid for.

Ukrainska Pravda reported Monday that Zelenskyy was allegedly considering the removal of General Staff Chief Serhii Shaptala along with Zaluzhnyi.

Zaluzhnyi on Monday congratulated Shaptala on his birthday and posted a picture of them together on Facebook.

“It will still be very difficult for us, but we will definitely never be ashamed,” Zaluzhnyi wrote.

A rift between Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy first broke into the open last fall when the general acknowledged in an interview with The Economist that the fighting with Russia had stalemated. The president strongly denied that was the case.

Ukraine desperately needs more Western military assistance as the Russian forces are pressing in many directions of the 1,500-kilometer (900-mile) frontline, but an aid package has been blocked in the U.S. Congress. Zaluzhnyi’s dismissal could fuel uncertainty among Western allies.

Russia has rejoiced at the prospect, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov saying that the talk about Zaluzhnyi's dismissal exposed rifts in the Ukrainian leadership.

Edited February 5 by OBJ

[The_Capt]

7 hours ago, JonS said:

As I said: compared to COTS

Well of course industry will jump on the bandwagon and we will see MILCOTS costing x10 as much for the same COTS system because they added cam paint.  But I still think there is no real peacetime cost comparison where it turns out that guns or mech are cheaper than a UAS heavy off set suite.

FPVs et al are not weapon systems tossed in the back of the truck.  They are a complete military capability that requires all the bits to keep it competitive and in motion.  C4ISR, force generation and development and integration costs within a joint warfare context.  All of that is not going to be cheap - so let’s not fall into the “fast, cheap easy” trap either.

But overall the per unit cost of a broad utility unmanned capability is very likely going to remain much lower than the same costs of current conventional capability suites.  Artillery, tanks, mech etc all have the same institutional costs but the per unit costs, plus logistics and support are very likely much higher (we do not know this definitively because no cost comparison is available).

In the end it will come down to operational effectiveness.  That in itself is a dynamic and opposed metric.  The enemy will work extremely hard at creating both symmetry and asymmetry on any capability we field.  So effectiveness of unmanned systems (of all types) could be a flash in the pan, or as enduring as cavalry.  We really do not know.  But in this war their utility and effectiveness are being demonstrated pretty clearly.  In fact in the last two years we have seen an evolution arc that points to some scary deductions.  

I stand by a hybridization of overlapping system.  Hell, unmanned could become its own combat arm before we are done.  I think all we can really do is watch and wait as this thing keeps unfolding.  Personally, my Ostfriesland moment will be if the UA can mass FPVs to the point they can pull off a successful operational offensive.  Until then all we can do is speculate.

[The_Capt]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

Meanwhile, COIN/HADR/lower-intensity-stuff is going to remain human-centric and require lots and lots of solders, not 'bots. It's going to be quite the trick to square that circle.

Absolutely.  The flip side is trying to rub drone-love on everything.  Low intensity and hybrid are going to remain very human heavy.  Militaries being who they are, and politicians being who they are will see militaries reduce human capital in trade for unmanned.  Why?  Because unmanned systems don’t need a VA or pension plan.

Problem will be that if military institutions are gutting of people on some sort of unmanned dividend we are going to be screwed come next COIN fight.

[pintere]

Can’t speak to the reliability of this report from Telegram, but it does potentially provide some details on what’s happening on the ground at Avdiivka:

AVDIVKA UPDATE

 

Russian forces in the south west salient they created have effectively been cut off as Ukraine has regained the key fortified area of the restaurant services area.

Russia tried to send a column to reinforce their troops in Avdivka’s lower streets, but this was annihilated.

The Russians used a 2km waste water service pipe to get behind the restaurant and into south Avdivka. It’s very narrow and they had to crawl through it, so supplying and reinforcing the now cut off island they’re in in south Avdivka is near impossible, if not pointless.

The tunnel needs to be destroyed at both ends and it’s deep so this hasn’t yet happened.

Eradicating the Russians in the housing they occupied is well underway.

Overall the Russian operation was quite imaginative and it gave them a major gain -  taking the southern defences completely and the Ukrainians by surprise. In some ways the Ukrainians should have expected use of the tunnel, or at least taken precautions to block it. It’s far more likely they just never expected it could be used if they even remembered it was there.

Russian success  - and it was, there’s no getting away from that, it was a daring and imaginative operation, was simply not followed up. Senior commanders doubted its likely success and no one was ready to exploit it until it was far too late. By then the Ukrainians had snatched back the restaurant’s fortification, because nobody reinforced the Russian forces, and now the few remaining Russian troops are more or less trapped, and the whole thing has turned into a Russian disaster. It’s not something Ukraine will fall for again and they’re probably looking to make sure nothing like happens anywhere else either.

This could have been the most consequential move the Russians made in months.

If they had been ready to exploit the success and acted quickly, given it the support it needed, they could have surrounded Zenit and have broken deep into Avdivka. It would in all likelihood have been the beginning of a much faster end for the town which would have quickly become untenable.

Instead their own handful of competent people were as usual, let down by hide bound commanders with zero imagination. Ukraine has always worked well against such opponents and did so again. That they were just as quick to see what had happened and responded with lightning pace to retake the initiative says it all.

[pintere]

3 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Despite massive casualties, the Russians keep inching closer to encircling Avdiivka. They are now less than 1 km away from the main road into the city.

To my eyes, the situation doesn't look good. Not sure how the Ukrainians can keep supplying their positions in the fields east of Avdiivka even now.

Time to pull back, or am I overlooking something important here? Apart from the huge Russian losses.

Unfortunately I think it’s further confirmation Avdiivka will eventually be lost. It’s Bakhmut all over again, the Russian advance is slow, and their losses heavy, but they’re consistently gaining a little more ground day by day, and unless Ukraine launches counterattacks to retake lost ground (likely a costly strategy given their materiel inferiority) then the result is inevitable.

It’s honestly painful to watch. The Ukrainians are fighting like lions to defend their country, but unfortunately we happen to live in a time where courage is about as important as the supply of 155mm artillery ammunition. And somehow North Korea is better at helping out the Russians in this way than Ukraine’s western allies…

[Kinophile]

 

 

[Kinophile]

43 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Hell, unmanned could become its own combat arm before we are done.  

UKR is probably on the institutional verge (year+) of doing that. The establishment of an entire drone brigade (or Batt?) sets the base precedent. 

The establishment of UAS as a distinct separate and funded service is probably the only tool that will crack the defensive primacy nut... For a while. But that institutional Headstart could be strategically critical, not just at tac/op. 

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

27 minutes ago, pintere said:

AVDIVKA UPDATE

 

Russian forces in the south west salient they created have effectively been cut off as Ukraine has regained the key fortified area of the restaurant services area.

 

20 minutes ago, pintere said:

Unfortunately I think it’s further confirmation Avdiivka will eventually be lost. It’s Bakhmut all over again,

Hang on, are those posts not a bit contrary to each other? Either the Ukrainians have cut off Russian forces which infiltrated into Avdiivka (in which case Avdieevka is one of the sides of the Kessel), or Avdieevka is being slowly conquered by the Russians. I mean, if Russians are physically in Avdieevka but are cut off they are not doing the conquering, they are doing all-round defence.

[Kinophile]

Sorry, but did we talk properly about this? First sinking of a significant at-sea naval asset by purely USS? 

Note that at 1.02 the boat is striking into the exact same spot as previous hits. No ship can resist that kind of stacked effects punching repeatedly into its hull volume. 

Add some MLRS onto the drones (done), and carry some UAS to strike the bridge during the fight.

@The_Capt functionally there is already an Unmanned Service Arm - the UKR Navy.

Russia destroying the UKR surface fleet was the best thing that could ever happen to it. It wiped the slate clean, disconnecting all the outdated thinking and personnel from future operations. Whomever is leading the Ukrainian Unmanned Navy is worth their weight in gold. 

[cesmonkey]

56 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

 

Hang on, are those posts not a bit contrary to each other? Either the Ukrainians have cut off Russian forces which infiltrated into Avdiivka (in which case Avdieevka is one of the sides of the Kessel), or Avdieevka is being slowly conquered by the Russians. I mean, if Russians are physically in Avdieevka but are cut off they are not doing the conquering, they are doing all-round defence.

Yes, very confusing. The Reporting from Ukraine YouTube channel also tries to explain it. The title might be a little misleading as it sounds like it hasn't been firmly decided either way.
 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

54 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Sorry, but did we talk properly about this? First sinking of a significant at-sea naval asset by purely USS? 

Note that at 1.02 the boat is striking into the exact same spot as previous hits. No ship can resist that kind of stacked effects punching repeatedly into its hull volume. 

Add some MLRS onto the drones (done), and carry some UAS to strike the bridge during the fight.

@The_Capt functionally there is already an Unmanned Service Arm - the UKR Navy.

Russia destroying the UKR surface fleet was the best thing that could ever happen to it. It wiped the slate clean, disconnecting all the outdated thinking and personnel from future operations. Whomever is leading the Ukrainian Unmanned Navy is worth their weight in gold. 

Agreed, we are seeing naval history being made in the Black sea right now.

Also, weight in gold is a good expression but according to this tweet, Ukraine has some specific numbers for how their success in the Black sea is helping the overall war effort.

Quote

Exports through Odesa ports reached pre-war levels

 

During the six months of operation of the Ukrainian corridor from the ports of Great Odesa, 661 ships exported more than 20 million tons of cargo to 32 countries of the world. This was announced by Oleksandr Kubrakov, the Deputy Prime Minister for the Reconstruction of Ukraine — the Minister of Community Development, Territories and Infrastructure of Ukraine.

 

14.3 million tons are products of Ukrainian farmers. Ukraine continues to ensure world food security.

 

Ports of Greater Odessa are increasing cargo transshipment. In January, 6.3 million tons were exported, which is almost equal to the pre-war level.

 

The ports are waiting for the approach of another 104 ships, which are supposed to take out more than 3 million tons of cargo .

 

The UN sponsored grain deal did not achieve that much...

 

Edited February 5 by Harmon Rabb

[The_Capt]

22 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Agreed, we are seeing naval history being made in the Black sea right now.

Also, weight in gold is a good expression but according to this tweet, Ukraine has some specific numbers for how their success in the Black sea is helping the overall war effort.

 

You know the Ukraine grain thing.  How come whenever any news of the Russian economy that is remotely hopeful the pro-Russia crowd (a conglomeration) crow from the rooftops - or doom and gloomers all point to it as the End of Days?  But when news comes out about the Ukrainian economy beginning to recover/readjust...silence? 

We have had numerous drive-bys from people who are all quick to point to Russian "success" but they never seem to come back to discuss Ukrainian success.

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Bulletpoint said:

Despite massive casualties, the Russians keep inching closer to encircling Avdiivka. They are now less than 1 km away from the main road into the city.

To my eyes, the situation doesn't look good. Not sure how the Ukrainians can keep supplying their positions in the fields east of Avdiivka even now.

Time to pull back, or am I overlooking something important here? Apart from the huge Russian losses.

And speaking of Ukrainian success.  If those numbers flying around are even halfway correct, the RA has lost around an entire Bde - maybe up to crippling a Div - on this one little (and operationally insignificant) town over the last 3 months.

The UA could pull out right now and this is a major win.

[alison]

7 hours ago, chrisl said:

Now imagine instead of powerpoint and MSword expanded into unnecessary 3D, it's got a whole squad or platoon networked to each other and some next level of command, with the 3D world for each person constructed from what everybody else is seeing, plus GIS data and realtime ISR from other sources, with each wearer properly located and oriented within the AR world.

This has been a dream for decades. I remember reading articles about it during the first round of VR/AR/wearable computing buzz in the 90s. I feel like there have been half a dozen Future Land Force Spectrum Warrior Initiative programs to make it happen, and as far as I know it never has. The last thing I remember was Microsoft pivoting HoloLens to the military. Looking at Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integrated_Visual_Augmentation_System) it seems like that one might have actually gotten somewhat of a rollout. Perhaps our active duty or recently-serving members can comment on if it's any good?

I'm skeptical, because this tech has been just around the corner forever, and yet never seems to be worth its literal weight to people who are already lugging a ton of gear around. I'm not a soldier, but I have done a decent amount of long term travel - bike touring, hiking etc - and even though having a permanent HUD is a cool fantasy, in practice just having a cheap and easily-replaceable phone was good enough. The times you really need hands focused on what's right in front of you, you generally need your full field of vision too. The times a fully networked computer would add context to what you are seeing - when you're in a position to contemplate that extra data - then you also have time to take a glance at a device on your wrist or in your pocket or attached to the rest of your gear.

I don't think the barrier is that the technology isn't there yet, I think it's more that humans have discovered that integrating a "second brain" works more smoothly when it's a discrete tool that can be held in our hands and manipulated with our fingers, then tucked away while we focus on something else. The best thing about modern networking technologies is that the front line soldiers can do exactly that, while all the data is still being collected and fed back to the command post where dedicated specialists can apply further analysis.

Looking at what we can see from what's happening in Ukraine, the modern feedback loop appears to be faster than it was in the days of human scouts and radio signals, but the overall flow of collecting, filtering and distributing information seems largely unchanged. I am not sure if it will ever become efficient to issue devices that multiplex a dozen inputs to a single soldier when they - quite literally - have an army to lean on.

Of course, the sci-fi nerd in me would love to be proven wrong.

[Bulletpoint]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

And speaking of Ukrainian success.  If those numbers flying around are even halfway correct, the RA has lost around an entire Bde - maybe up to crippling a Div - on this one little (and operationally insignificant) town over the last 3 months.

The UA could pull out right now and this is a major win.

Hopefully this major win won't end with a major loss if a similar number of Ukrainians end up encircled and destroyed.

[billbindc]

5 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

He might have admitted that mistake, and of course he made mistakes we do not know of, but as I wrote, I do not think he is being blamed for any of them in particular by the public opinion. In other words, his mistakes seem to be excusable. Roughly at the same time as the interview, the Economist published two good opinion pieces about the Summer offensive which showed at least a part of the decision process and how the Ukrainian staff navigated between the options, resisted pressure from the US advisers to make a massed conventional mech attack, etc. - generally, that it was an extremely difficult if not impossible job. I think his mistakes are considered par for the course.

Actually, I have trouble finding "public statements about what should be done in opposition to the administration he serves" by Zaluzhny. Could you specify which ones do you have in mind? I only remember Zelenski's administration throwing a fit about the word "stalemate" in the Economist interview, but that hardly qualifies as a reason for bona fide criticism.

 

Zaluzhny also talked about a huge mobilization, inter alia that I can tell you was used as fodder in DC to question the Ukrainian war effort. It is not that he's wrong...it's that he's contradicting the civilian leadership in a public way that is complicating their job in getting American aid. That's not what his job is and he should be vetting all of his statements through Zelenksy, period and end of story. 

[Harmon Rabb]

New video of Ukrainian SOF activity in Sudan.

I think I did spot a mistranslated in this video, the POW clearly say CAR which is short for Central African Republic, and would geographically make more sense. But the translation in the video was South Africa.

Edited February 5 by Harmon Rabb

[The_Capt]

2 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Hopefully this major win won't end with a major loss if a similar number of Ukrainians end up encircled and destroyed.

In order for that to happen, the UA would need to collapse in that area.  The RA has tried it, but been destroyed every time.  Why?  My guess is a combination of C4ISR and strike - if that fails, the UA has much larger problems than this one small town.

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

In order for that to happen, the UA would need to collapse in that area.  The RA has tried it, but been destroyed every time.  Why?  My guess is a combination of C4ISR and strike - if that fails, the UA has much larger problems than this one small town.

Maybe I'm fixating too much on the two roads. It might be that they can bring in supplies across the fields, too. And withdraw that way also, if need be.

[Carolus]

There is a rumor going around that Ukraine will get JASSM with their F16s, but I haven't found a good confirmation.

A bunch of outlets say the origin is Naev, the commander of the northern front in Ukraine.

JASSM seems pretty new. Is it realistic that the US would give them away or even allow it after the song and dance around ATACMS?

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Maybe I'm fixating too much on the two roads. It might be that they can bring in supplies across the fields, too. And withdraw that way also, if need be.

Do we have any idea how many UA troops are actually in that pocket?