The_Capt Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: This is already standard. Commercial drones can automatically return "Home" if signal is lost. That is 100% autonomous flight. Extending that to flying to a specified point ahead of time is already happening. So flight paths are already being used autonomously. We've even seen target recognition being used in drones operating in Ukraine. So I think we're already seeing what you've described and more. Steve I was talking more about human in the loop up to a kill box and then letting them loose. This would require not only autonomy for navigation but also targeting. Not sure if we have seen it in the war yet, but I am pretty sure we will. We already know China has invested heavily in fully autonomous weapon systems, Russia will no doubt acquire if they can. I have not seen any evidence of independent targeting but if someone has please pipe up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 hours ago, OBJ said: Think we're maybe talking past each other low intensity limited war vs high intensity major power conflict. BTW, glad you are here with us to tell the story. No, it will be universal. Machines can’t tell if a human is surrendering or honypotting. They cannot really discern between mud covered humans nor can they hold a tactical picture in their heads and make judgements based on what people are doing and where. Low intensity is more muddled but even in free fire zones a level of context is always needed for targeting. Machines and software are coming up fast but there will be issues with target selection and application - hell fratricide is a major issue in any war. Troops can’t run around with IFF beacons without getting picked up, so it will be likely visible markers, which are too easy to spoof an AI system on. Finally, machines without context cannot tell when they are being lied to, or deceived. This could mean a whole lot of wasted systems, and p/or exposure to being accused of warcrimes. I think autonomous systems are inevitable and some nations are just going to jump in with both feet. But they are not risk free in the least. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonS Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 8 minutes ago, The_Capt said: Troops can’t run around with IFF beacons without getting picked up Heh. When I was working on battle management systems, the standard way of pranking the gullible was to suggest that Red Force Tracking was being implemented in phase 3, and see if they fell for it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Quote https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/from-the-crows-nest/id1561252894?i=1000643699298 A very interesting podcast that bears on many tof the things currently under discussion. It strongly advocates an umanned heavy force for the defense of Taiwan among other things. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Take out drones at "middle to long range" with a directed microwave weapon? https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2024/01/high-powered-microwave-weapon-may-have-just-passed-critical-test/393821/ https://www.rtx.com/news/news-center/2024/01/29/rtxs-chimera-high-power-microwave-system-excels-during-three-week-field-test 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 hour ago, The_Capt said: I was talking more about human in the loop up to a kill box and then letting them loose. This would require not only autonomy for navigation but also targeting. Not sure if we have seen it in the war yet, but I am pretty sure we will. We already know China has invested heavily in fully autonomous weapon systems, Russia will no doubt acquire if they can. I have not seen any evidence of independent targeting but if someone has please pipe up. Just a few days ago someone posted a video of Ukraine operating a drone that can do target analysis and identification. I'm sure it's crude and extraordinarily prone to catastrophic false positives, but it exists in a form that Ukraine has access to. For now what it does is help the Human in the Loop find things they might otherwise have missed. That will change. It seems that the combination of cheap thermal cameras and fast processors with rather cheap supporting architecture are pretty close to being able to duplicate what the LRAS3 type system was doing 20 years ago, except it's tiny and doesn't cost $3m. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vic4 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Surprised not to see much conversation about this as it's been circulating for the past few days. Any thoughts on how the replacement of Zaluzhny may affect the the course of the war? https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/zaluzhny-oust-ukraine-army-zelensky-intl/index.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 28 minutes ago, Vic4 said: Surprised not to see much conversation about this as it's been circulating for the past few days. Any thoughts on how the replacement of Zaluzhny may affect the the course of the war? https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/31/europe/zaluzhny-oust-ukraine-army-zelensky-intl/index.html Still waiting for a coherent explanation of what is happening. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 58 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: Just a few days ago someone posted a video of Ukraine operating a drone that can do target analysis and identification. I'm sure it's crude and extraordinarily prone to catastrophic false positives, but it exists in a form that Ukraine has access to. For now what it does is help the Human in the Loop find things they might otherwise have missed. That will change. It seems that the combination of cheap thermal cameras and fast processors with rather cheap supporting architecture are pretty close to being able to duplicate what the LRAS3 type system was doing 20 years ago, except it's tiny and doesn't cost $3m. Steve Quote https://www.phonearena.com/phones/Apple-iPhone-16-Pro-Max_id12238 Above is the current guess on specs for the Iphone 16. I have also read it it going to have some sort of optimization for running AI directly on the phone. If you replace one of the cameras with a with the best room temperature infrared you can get for a reasonable price you have a luxury model drone guidance kit for ~1500. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vic4 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) Another interesting article haven't seen posted here yet. US weapons exports up 50 percent in 2023 as Washington challenges Russia, China "The Russian defense industry is failing and continues to fail," said a top State Department official. Read in POLITICO: https://apple.news/AcumTh4SiRpmY0NrPqH7meA Edited February 1 by Vic4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 45 minutes ago, Vic4 said: Another interesting article haven't seen posted here yet. US weapons exports up 50 percent in 2023 as Washington challenges Russia, China "The Russian defense industry is failing and continues to fail," said a top State Department official. Read in POLITICO: https://apple.news/AcumTh4SiRpmY0NrPqH7meA After all the political disappointment about when, how and why to arm Ukraine over the last two years, I still have the hope that there is one guy who will not let me down: The almighty dollar 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) Quote https://www.threads.net/@tsua_23/post/C2y3XypoX8G Seeing reports That Ukraine got at least three Russian planes on the ground at Balbek airfield in Crimea, anybody have anything solid? Edited February 1 by dan/california 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 34 minutes ago, dan/california said: Seeing reports That Ukraine got at least three Russian planes on the ground at Balbek airfield in Crimea, anybody have anything solid? The Kyiv Post linked to this tweet: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Two majors reported this on the Crimean attack: https://t.me/dva_majors/33763 Quote Yesterday, Crimea was subjected to a massive attack by 20 air-launched missiles supplied by NATO countries. Among the targets was the Belbek airfield , but two missiles hit a construction waste dump; apparently, our electronic warfare systems were activated. In the morning, attacks on the west of the Crimean Peninsula continued. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tux Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 10 hours ago, OBJ said: Maybe, your thoughts on the comparison between the machine learning data base set for high intensity major power conflict targeting vs that for driverless vehicles? Point granted, along with billb’s follow up. Conversation’s moved way on now though. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelRain Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) With ongoing reliability issues and lessons from the War in Ukrain, Germany will ditch its Tiger Attack Helicopters in favour of new solutions like artillery deployed loitering munitions, while France and Spain will upgrade their Tiger's. As interim solution the Bundeswehr will acquire the H145M utility helicopter. Edited February 1 by SteelRain 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maciej Zwolinski Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, cesmonkey said: Among the targets was the Belbek airfield , but two missiles hit a construction waste dump; apparently, our electronic warfare systems were activated. To be fair, it is objectively difficult to distinguish between a Russian airfield and a construction waste dump. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Offshoot Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Deal reached on 50 billion euros in EU aid for Ukraine (from the Guardian's live updates, which I don't know how to link directly, if it can be) Quote Deal reached on 50 billion euros in EU aid for Ukraine Charles Michel, the European Council president, has announced that a deal has been reached on 50 billion euros for Ukraine. “All 27 leaders agreed,” he said, adding that “this locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine.” The agreement comes after the bloc’s most influential politicians sat down with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán this morning. Orbán had vetoed an agreement during a summit in December, and efforts have been ongoing to bring him onboard. Michel’s announcement indicates leaders succeeded in convincing the Hungarian leader. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 10 minutes ago, Offshoot said: which I don't know how to link directly, Right click on the time at the top left of the post and choose copy link https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/feb/01/eu-leaders-gather-for-key-summit-in-bid-to-unblock-orban-veto-on-ukraine-aid-europe-live?page=with:block-65bb73188f08d26c7ae387f2#block-65bb73188f08d26c7ae387f2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 (edited) UA proclaims that they sank Russian corvette "Ivanovets" with kamikaze USV. Edited February 1 by Carolus 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVulture Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 25 minutes ago, Carolus said: UA proclaims that they sank Russian corvette "Ivanovets" with kamikaze USV. Certainly looks pretty sunk in that video at the end. At 1:18 or so you can see one of the drones coming in on what looks like an already badly damaged ship and manage to successfully hit right on one of the holes in the side from a previous hit. The editing implies that this causes a catastrophic explosion. Which might just be editing, but then it wouldn't be surprising for a drone that managed to get through a hole and *inside* the armour before detonating. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: Just a few days ago someone posted a video of Ukraine operating a drone that can do target analysis and identification. I'm sure it's crude and extraordinarily prone to catastrophic false positives, but it exists in a form that Ukraine has access to. For now what it does is help the Human in the Loop find things they might otherwise have missed. That will change. It seems that the combination of cheap thermal cameras and fast processors with rather cheap supporting architecture are pretty close to being able to duplicate what the LRAS3 type system was doing 20 years ago, except it's tiny and doesn't cost $3m. Steve Definitely getting closer then. I suspect we are going to see killboxes where fully autonomous drones will be free to engage anything and everything. They won’t be perfect and prone to deceptions but the advantages are clear - no operator link to cut. This severely blunts EW, which has been about the only way to hold UAS off in this war. I am waiting to see a drone chase a Russian around and tree, but completely autonomous with no human operator. Next challenge will be target deconfliction between autonomous systems to ensure distribution of targeting but that is a really good problem to have. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cesmonkey Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Rybar's report on the Crimean events: https://t.me/rybar/56611 Quote ️ Combined attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Crimean Peninsula - the course of the operation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine After a complex reconnaissance operation and a drone raid, from the second half of yesterday until the morning of today, Ukrainian formations launched an attack on the Crimean Peninsula . At least three Su-24M bombers from the Starokonstantinov airfield and several more Su-27 and MiG-29 fighters from the Kanatovo airfield took off in the direction of the Nikolaev region. Having reached Bashtanka , Ukrainian fighters fired ADM-160 MALD decoy missiles, which distracted air defense systems. At the same time, AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles were tested in the Kherson region at a maximum range of 150 km . After this, six Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles were fired from the Su-24M in the direction of Crimea. One was shot down over Krasnoperekopsk , another one over Gvardeyskoye . The third missile was intercepted by a Su-30 fighter 50 km northwest of Sevastopol , and three more on approach to Sevastopol - Belbek airfield . After this, the Ukrainian bombers made a second circle and fired six more cruise missiles towards the Belbek airfield. The targets, rounding Tarkhankut , came from the sea. Three were intercepted northwest of Sevastopol, two were intercepted over the airfield, and one was intercepted directly above the ground. Its debris crashed into the ground and detonated without causing damage to the runway. At night, the attack by Ukrainian formations continued. Nine unmanned boats left Odessa and the mouth of the Danube River in the direction of Crimea. Four of them were discovered by Russian sailors at the entrance to Lake Donuzlav . Fire was opened on them, as a result of which four drones were destroyed. One of the BeKs exploded right next to the side of the boat, damaging it. There is no data on the extent of damage at this time. Two patrol boats, two helicopters and a fighter jet were sent to search for the four remaining drones. During the operation they were hit and scuttled. ️As can be seen from this attack, the Ukrainian formations clearly aimed their air assets at the airfield network on the peninsula: Dzhankoy , Gvardeyskoye and Belbek . Considering that Storms/Scalps have a penetrating effect, the targets of the attack were most likely control posts. Moreover, a few hours earlier, an Italian G-550 AWACS aircraft of the Italian Air Force, and, in addition to it, five more US and NATO reconnaissance aircraft were operating in the air off the coast of Romania. And the day before the raid, the air defense of Crimea was checked with drones. A certain change in the enemy’s tactics looks quite interesting: if earlier strikes were carried out immediately, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine deliberately delayed the launch of missiles, which is why the duration of the missile danger exceeded two hours . And the subsequent attack by unmanned boats took place after a long break. But this again confirms the enemy’s intention to hit the Black Sea Fleet with the ultimate goal of weakening its capabilities. High resolution map English version 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OBJ Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 8 hours ago, The_Capt said: No, it will be universal. Machines can’t tell if a human is surrendering or honypotting. They cannot really discern between mud covered humans nor can they hold a tactical picture in their heads and make judgements based on what people are doing and where. Low intensity is more muddled but even in free fire zones a level of context is always needed for targeting. Machines and software are coming up fast but there will be issues with target selection and application - hell fratricide is a major issue in any war. Troops can’t run around with IFF beacons without getting picked up, so it will be likely visible markers, which are too easy to spoof an AI system on. Finally, machines without context cannot tell when they are being lied to, or deceived. This could mean a whole lot of wasted systems, and p/or exposure to being accused of warcrimes. I think autonomous systems are inevitable and some nations are just going to jump in with both feet. But they are not risk free in the least. Nope, no one at the enemy RSC node is going to be walking around with their hands up waving a white flag. As for the guy in the crapper when the strike comes in, well, s**t happens. In high intensity conflict high capability systems will be assigned to high value targets first. Allegedly the Israeli's already have an autonomous system that looks for, identifies and attacks radiating targets, run by on board AI. The issues you bring up are autonomous AI in the close fight, CM level, not at operational or strategic depth. But in that regard, if machines can be taught to drive in cities, think of the complexity of situations the machine has to get right. If they can drive they will differentiate between a guy with his hands up and a guy taking a squat, or with mud on his face, or with a sun tan, eventually. Refer to @billbindc. Probably sooner than later, war being a great accelerator of technical development, see Ukraine, see Gaza. Also, no one is going to put an orange cone on the hood of an aerial drone or AD system. No major power is going to cede the kinds of military advantage autonomous AI represents to a competitor and potential enemy. Autonomous AI will be part of systems and platforms, another tool, component, aspect of warfighting. It already is part of AD systems, enabling target ID and engagement times humanly impossible. The time when wars are fought exclusively by AI systems is still a ways off, if we ever get there. I would be interested in the sources you have for your opinions. Here are a few I found useful in forming mine: https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3604459/defense-officials-report-progress-on-replicator-initiative/#:~:text=Hicks unveiled the Replicator initiative,China's rapid armed forces buildup. Dec 23 - Replicator initiative in August 2022, first iteration fielding thousands of autonomous systems across multiple domains within the next 18-to-24 months. https://cepa.org/article/between-killer-robots-and-flawless-ai-reassessing-the-military-implications-of-autonomy/ Nov 23 - as is, trending, cautions https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/2928194/artificial-intelligence-autonomy-will-play-crucial-role-in-warfare-general-says/ Feb 22 - Target management, close fight, low intensity/ counter insurgency. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ringo Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 9 hours ago, The_Capt said: I was talking more about human in the loop up to a kill box and then letting them loose. This would require not only autonomy for navigation but also targeting. Not sure if we have seen it in the war yet, but I am pretty sure we will. We already know China has invested heavily in fully autonomous weapon systems, Russia will no doubt acquire if they can. I have not seen any evidence of independent targeting but if someone has please pipe up. If your adversary has little to no concern about using AI/autonomous weapons on the battlefield due to ethical constraints, you may likely die on the battlefield while debating what should or should not be targeted. The ethical AI debate may be mute if your adversary has the ability to use similar technology. Based on the low value placed on human life by the Russians and the Chinese, as well as most terrorist organizations, I doubt they'll have any hesitation sending an AI targeted death package. Thankful for the contributions and commentary from so many on this forum, amazing and highly informative discussions. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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