How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[JonS]

It's true.

[NamEndedAllen]

22 hours ago, The_Capt said:

To my eyes “woke” has been so over used that I am not sure people pointing at it even know what it really means anymore.

It’s most frequently used by frightened old white people who cannot properly shout, “Yo mama!” insults.

[Jiggathebauce]

3 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

It’s most frequently used by frightened old white people who cannot properly shout, “Yo mama!” insults.

It's just the latest iteration of calling something politically correct, which was always just another way of saying something is too liberal.  In another decade they will call it something else.

 

Seems to me the armed forces can't be too picky about who joins, although ironically the wider demographics they need to recruit don't want to join sometimes precisely BECAUSE they don't want to be singled out by white conservatives who think they don't belong.

[Vanir Ausf B]

It doesn't matter. If forum predictions are correct unmanned/autonomous is going to solve everyone's recruitment problems.

[The_Capt]

5 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

It's just the latest iteration of calling something politically correct, which was always just another way of saying something is too liberal.  In another decade they will call it something else.

 

Seems to me the armed forces can't be too picky about who joins, although ironically the wider demographics they need to recruit don't want to join sometimes precisely BECAUSE they don't want to be singled out by white conservatives who think they don't belong.

I think it goes beyond political correctness, which was really an exercise in re-labeling and taking into account multidimensional sensitivities.  This is something else.  My working theory is that it is following patterns seen after every major pandemic - a re-evaluation on a broad and deep social scale.  During the pandemic social value paradoxes were laid bare and felt just about everywhere.  Grocery store clerks became front line critical staff while CEOs were stuffed into Zoom boxes with the rest of us - is an example. 

That exposure laid bare all sorts of "hey wait a minutes" that coalesced together incredibly fast.  After the Black Death there was a massive social renegotiation as labour realized that is value had fundamentally changed.  1918 (plus WW1) gender and class value shifted dramatically.

So here we are again as what determines "value" is shifting under our feet.  History shows it can be a pretty bumpy ride but then things settle down and we adapt to new social frameworks.

[Harmon Rabb]

Croatian court rules to transfer seized yacht 'Royal Romance' belonging to Medvedchuk to Ukraine (odessa-journal.com)

Quote

In Croatia, the district court of the city of Split, based on a request for international legal assistance, has decided to transfer the yacht "Royal Romance," formerly owned by former Member of Parliament Viktor Medvedchuk, to Ukraine.

This information was reported by the head of the Asset Recovery and Management Agency (ARMA), Olena Duma.

She noted that this information was provided by the State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign and European Affairs of the Republic of Croatia, the head of the interdepartmental working group to support Ukraine, Frano Matušić. The head of ARMA also added that assurances were received that Croatia expects the "speediest transfer of the vessel to Ukraine" and believes that there are no legal obstacles for this.

Duma also emphasized that ARMA has obtained approval for a re-examination of this asset and, after its assessment, plans to proceed with its realization.

"The sale of this lot will be the first example of the realization of seized assets located abroad," wrote Duma.

At the same time, she noted that "the seized yacht temporarily sailed on January 25, 2024, to confirm its technical capability, buoyancy, and engine operation."

This was done in accordance with the court's decision.

Royal Romance, very nice name for a yacht Mr.Medvedchuk. Now she can be called more money for Ukraine. Don't think the Ukrainian Navy will be using her.

Also did find it kind of interesting that Ukraine has a government organization called ARMA, as this is a wargaming forum I doubt I need to explain why.

arma.gov.ua

Edited January 26 by Harmon Rabb

[Sojourner]

23 hours ago, The_Capt said:

To my eyes “woke” has been so over used that I am not sure people pointing at it even know what it really means anymore.

That almost sounds like a Berra-ism...

That place is so crowded nobody goes there anymore.

I suppose you meant "misused"

Now if you want to talk about over-used AND misused, I think "game changer" is leading the pack.

[zinz]

Quote

German Minister of Defense Pistorius announced the following planned support from Germany for Ukraine for 2024.

air defense system IRIS-T SLM
GEPARD anti air guns
additional artillery systems with more than 230.000 rounds of ammo
80+ Leopard 1A5 tanks
additional APC's
additional engineering machines and bridge-layers
450 armored vehicles
Mine clearance systems
drones
radar systems and recon systems

https://mastodon.social/@noelreports@mstdn.social/111818835823470609

https://www.bmvg.de/de/aktuelles/sechs-sea-king-hubschrauber-der-bundeswehr-fuer-die-ukraine-5729832

German military aid plan for 2024. Looks quite solid to me for keeping Ukraine in the war. 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

It doesn't matter. If forum predictions are correct unmanned/autonomous is going to solve everyone's recruitment problems.

Except that there are a at least a dozen kinds of highly skilled specialist required to make that work like the hype says it should. In the absence of conscription Western militaries are going to have to PAY those people. Ukraine is getting by because entire tech firms and university engineering school  student bodies signed up. 

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Except that there are a at least a dozen kinds of highly skilled specialist required to make that work like the hype says it should. In the absence of conscription Western militaries are going to have to PAY those people. Ukraine is getting by because entire tech firms and university engineering school  student bodies signed up.

For sure there will be huge demand for those skills, but if you're not paying for machine gunners, tanks crews and fighter pilots that should free money for a smaller number of technical specialists, at least enough to compete with the private sector.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Sojourner said:

That almost sounds like a Berra-ism...

That place is so crowded nobody goes there anymore.

I suppose you meant "misused"

Now if you want to talk about over-used AND misused, I think "game changer" is leading the pack.

Over use can imply mis-use through dilution of original meaning and intent.  If a term is over used it can morph into something else over time - like "nit picking".  

[NamEndedAllen]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If a term is over used it can morph into something else over time - like "nit picking". 

Or, as often has been a worse case, a political club with which to wack one’s opponents. Otherwise known as “demonizing”. Something we are seeing far too much of in place of reasoned civil discourse and substantive debate. I suspect this is not limited to the USA. Nor untainted by influencing by hostile nations. Seeps into every corner - even here, in generally excellent discussions about an existential war in Europe. Said war many of us see as a particularly virulent tip of a much larger and ominous iceberg. 

[JonS]

35 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Over use can imply mis-use through dilution of original meaning and intent.  If a term is over used it can morph into something else over time - like "nit picking".  

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, zinz said:

https://mastodon.social/@noelreports@mstdn.social/111818835823470609

https://www.bmvg.de/de/aktuelles/sechs-sea-king-hubschrauber-der-bundeswehr-fuer-die-ukraine-5729832

German military aid plan for 2024. Looks quite solid to me for keeping Ukraine in the war. 

That is a nice and robust list of equipment!  If this war goes into a lull (that's up to Russia) this equipment will likely wind up replacing a lot of worn out ex-Soviet stuff.

Steve

[Beleg85]

About the tunnel- seem it is admittedly  badass operation. Here sum up from one of better analytical accounts, with translated excerpts from Russian TG sources:

Awdjijwka - Tunnel. Discovered by RUS about three months ago. Partially flooded and buried, it was cleared by technical and sapper units. At the end, we had to dig through and create an exit - a very narrow one. The technical tunnel has a diameter of about one and a half meters, so you can only move around it by crouching. According to rumors, several RUS have already suffocated in the pipe and one person committed suicide. Up to 300 people could pass through the tunnel at one time.

 

17/01/2024 Everything is prepared, the walking time of over 2 kilometers, the routes of UKR patrols and their numbers. RUS special units quietly prepared a bridgehead, the so-called safety buffer. The UKR 110th Brigade was surprised and probably did not even know where the RUS had come from and why there were so many of them. Losing position around the restaurant was only a matter of time. "They immediately told me that I could say goodbye to the large backpack. I realized that if I leave my backpack at the unloading point, I will never see it again, there is always something to eat in the backpacks. To whom is war and to whom is mother loved..."

 

20/01/2024 On that day, UKR learned about the existence of the tunnel, as the Rus had already occupied private houses at the fork of Soborna, Sportivna and Czernyszewska streets Additionally, 2 Battalions were brought from reserve and a new defense line was created. At the same time, a counterattack began, aimed at driving RUS out of this bag. "We moved in a group, the commander stopped us every 20-30 meters. Thank God, the commander encountered the same problems as me - shortness of breath. Otherwise, I would most likely simply not survive and suffocate or have a stroke. It looks like. You walk 20 meters, dragging a bag behind you, which is already half wet with water and therefore twice as heavy. Then they start having slight cramps in their legs and they don't want to walk. Legs wet up to the waist. You touch and walk another twenty meters, you're out of breath again, your legs and spine hurt, you don't want to go, three hundred times in a row anyway. It's about 1,200 meters to the landfall point.

 

22-23/01/2024 UKR conducts a large counterattack and secures the area of the former restaurant, but they fail to expel RUS from the tunnel area and the streets of the residential district. The houses are defended only by infantry, about 200 RUS soldiers. They are trying to evacuate and deliver ammunition through the now famous tunnel. "At the end of the tunnel, we are waiting for the guide on a string. We waited about an hour for him to come. You can't go out with a machine gun and a backpack. One person helps. You give him a backpack and a machine gun and into the hole vertically up, to a height of two meters, you climb stairs made of boxes on which you can only lean with your leg. You climb out by pulling yourself up on your hands through a narrow circular opening less than 90 cm in diameter.

 

25/01/2024. For me it's a stalemate. RUS is defending, and UKR cannot counteract much. Elements of the 110th Brigade and tanks of the 116th Zakhar Brigade attempt to push the RUS infantry away from the residential area. On the other hand, in the south, the UKR is engaged in heavy fighting in the area of the station and Dubrava and the Tsarska Ohota complex. If it turns out that 40,000 RUS are waiting for a signal to attack, it is difficult to predict what will happen in the next two weeks.

 

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

58 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

About the tunnel- seem it is admittedly  badass operation. Here sum up from one of better analytical accounts, with translated excerpts from Russian TG sources:

Awdjijwka - Tunnel. Discovered by RUS about three months ago. Partially flooded and buried, it was cleared by technical and sapper units. At the end, we had to dig through and create an exit - a very narrow one. The technical tunnel has a diameter of about one and a half meters, so you can only move around it by crouching. According to rumors, several RUS have already suffocated in the pipe and one person committed suicide. Up to 300 people could pass through the tunnel at one time.

 

17/01/2024 Everything is prepared, the walking time of over 2 kilometers, the routes of UKR patrols and their numbers. RUS special units quietly prepared a bridgehead, the so-called safety buffer. The UKR 110th Brigade was surprised and probably did not even know where the RUS had come from and why there were so many of them. Losing position around the restaurant was only a matter of time. "They immediately told me that I could say goodbye to the large backpack. I realized that if I leave my backpack at the unloading point, I will never see it again, there is always something to eat in the backpacks. To whom is war and to whom is mother loved..."

 

20/01/2024 On that day, UKR learned about the existence of the tunnel, as the Rus had already occupied private houses at the fork of Soborna, Sportivna and Czernyszewska streets Additionally, 2 Battalions were brought from reserve and a new defense line was created. At the same time, a counterattack began, aimed at driving RUS out of this bag. "We moved in a group, the commander stopped us every 20-30 meters. Thank God, the commander encountered the same problems as me - shortness of breath. Otherwise, I would most likely simply not survive and suffocate or have a stroke. It looks like. You walk 20 meters, dragging a bag behind you, which is already half wet with water and therefore twice as heavy. Then they start having slight cramps in their legs and they don't want to walk. Legs wet up to the waist. You touch and walk another twenty meters, you're out of breath again, your legs and spine hurt, you don't want to go, three hundred times in a row anyway. It's about 1,200 meters to the landfall point.

 

22-23/01/2024 UKR conducts a large counterattack and secures the area of the former restaurant, but they fail to expel RUS from the tunnel area and the streets of the residential district. The houses are defended only by infantry, about 200 RUS soldiers. They are trying to evacuate and deliver ammunition through the now famous tunnel. "At the end of the tunnel, we are waiting for the guide on a string. We waited about an hour for him to come. You can't go out with a machine gun and a backpack. One person helps. You give him a backpack and a machine gun and into the hole vertically up, to a height of two meters, you climb stairs made of boxes on which you can only lean with your leg. You climb out by pulling yourself up on your hands through a narrow circular opening less than 90 cm in diameter.

 

25/01/2024. For me it's a stalemate. RUS is defending, and UKR cannot counteract much. Elements of the 110th Brigade and tanks of the 116th Zakhar Brigade attempt to push the RUS infantry away from the residential area. On the other hand, in the south, the UKR is engaged in heavy fighting in the area of the station and Dubrava and the Tsarska Ohota complex. If it turns out that 40,000 RUS are waiting for a signal to attack, it is difficult to predict what will happen in the next two weeks.

 

 

 

That's a pretty good sized battle.  With Ukraine pushing so much into the area I don't see how the Russians can hold out with such a difficult supply route.  Especially if Ukraine has figured out specifically where it is.

Steve

[cesmonkey]

These two updates from ISW are pretty interesting:

The Kremlin is reportedly no longer offering pardons to convict recruits and is significantly changing the terms of their service, likely in response to the reduction of the pool of convicts suitable for recruitment into Russian force generation efforts.

Bloomberg reported on January 24 that labor shortages in Russia have increased wages in civilian sectors enough to compete with relatively lucrative military salaries, likely making military service even less appealing to Russian citizens.

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's a pretty good sized battle.  With Ukraine pushing so much into the area I don't see how the Russians can hold out with such a difficult supply route.  Especially if Ukraine has figured out specifically where it is.

Steve

Seems like a couple of PGMs would collapse the tunnel...

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

These two updates from ISW are pretty interesting:

The Kremlin is reportedly no longer offering pardons to convict recruits and is significantly changing the terms of their service, likely in response to the reduction of the pool of convicts suitable for recruitment into Russian force generation efforts.

Bloomberg reported on January 24 that labor shortages in Russia have increased wages in civilian sectors enough to compete with relatively lucrative military salaries, likely making military service even less appealing to Russian citizens.

Some people forget that if Russia is going to rely upon core principles of Capitalism to get people to sign up, then it's making itself vulnerable to larger market forces.  In this case, supply and demand.

The way autocracies generally get around this is to simply mandate people do what the state wants.  Putin has been conspicuously reluctant to do that so far, which indicates other forces are working against one of the (theoretically) easiest ways to staff the military. 

For a while I suspect Russia will simply increase how much they pay.  However, we know that Russia's budget is under massive strain from the cost of the war so they can't do that without affecting other market forces, such as cutting back on services or raising taxes.  For the most part it seems cutting back on services is what Putin's favored, which also indicates that Putin's not interested in finding out how people might react to increasing taxes.

It's not surprising to see this finally happening, though it's not clear how soon this will have a significant impact.  It might take a while or it could be that the steady flow of volunteers is about to become constrained.  We should know soon.

Steve

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Some people forget that if Russia is going to rely upon core principles of Capitalism to get people to sign up, then it's making itself vulnerable to larger market forces.  In this case, supply and demand.

The way autocracies generally get around this is to simply mandate people do what the state wants.  Putin has been conspicuously reluctant to do that so far, which indicates other forces are working against one of the (theoretically) easiest ways to staff the military. 

For a while I suspect Russia will simply increase how much they pay.  However, we know that Russia's budget is under massive strain from the cost of the war so they can't do that without affecting other market forces, such as cutting back on services or raising taxes.  For the most part it seems cutting back on services is what Putin's favored, which also indicates that Putin's not interested in finding out how people might react to increasing taxes.

It's not surprising to see this finally happening, though it's not clear how soon this will have a significant impact.  It might take a while or it could be that the steady flow of volunteers is about to become constrained.  We should know soon.

Steve

There is third choice, though not a better one, simply print the money. Of course you then have to win the war before full blown hyper inflation sets in. But one way or another Putin only has so much time to get this done. We just have To ensure Ukraine can outlast him.

[Ales Dvorak]

12 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Croatian court rules to transfer seized yacht 'Royal Romance' belonging to Medvedchuk to Ukraine (odessa-journal.com)

Royal Romance, very nice name for a yacht Mr.Medvedchuk. Now she can be called more money for Ukraine. Don't think the Ukrainian Navy will be using her.

Also did find it kind of interesting that Ukraine has a government organization called ARMA, as this is a wargaming forum I doubt I need to explain why.

arma.gov.ua

"For months, it has been communicated on the air that the yacht Royal Romance is owned by the Russian oligarch and friend of Vladimir Putin - Viktor Medvedchuk. However, this is not true, because the yacht was transparently acquired through a sales contract by our client Lanelia Holdings, whose ultimate owner is Mr. Aleksey Inkin," they claim. lawyers." - Večernji list

 

It's in Croatian language, hope google translate will help.

https://www.vecernji.hr/vijesti/hrvatska-zbog-jahte-u-trogiru-moze-snositi-ozbiljne-financijske-posljedice-ovo-nije-sala-1741465#

 

Edited January 26 by Ales Dvorak

[Kinophile]

13 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Croatian court rules to transfer seized yacht 'Royal Romance' belonging to Medvedchuk to Ukraine (odessa-journal.com)

Royal Romance, very nice name for a yacht Mr.Medvedchuk. Now she can be called more money for Ukraine. Don't think the Ukrainian Navy will be using her.

Also did find it kind of interesting that Ukraine has a government organization called ARMA, as this is a wargaming forum I doubt I need to explain why.

arma.gov.ua

They should fill it with explosives, katyushas and booby traps and send it against Sebastapol for the BSF to blow up, streaming it live on vkontackt. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

9 hours ago, dan/california said:

Seems like a couple of PGMs would collapse the tunnel...

Thermobarics were invented for that sort of thing

[Bearstronaut]

6 hours ago, dan/california said:

There is third choice, though not a better one, simply print the money. Of course you then have to win the war before full blown hyper inflation sets in. But one way or another Putin only has so much time to get this done. We just have To ensure Ukraine can outlast him.

Or simply not pay the soldiers. How many mobik/mobik wives videos have we seen complaining about not getting the pay that was promised them?

[billbindc]

Kofman: 

https://warontherocks.com/2024/01/hold-build-and-strike-a-vision-for-rebuilding-ukraines-advantage-in-2024/