Bearstronaut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, dan/california said: Kristof is pretty much an out and out peacenik. At the very least his attitude is extremely dovish, he just issued what amounts to a hair on fire war warning about North Korea doing something absolutely crazy. Anybody else seeing weirder noises than usual from the hermit kingdom? My background is Korean Peninsula analysis and I speak the language but I haven't really focused on North Korea professionally for a few years. That being said, I do try and keep up on news even if not to the level I used to. The timing seems off. If he waits a year it is possible that he may have his buddy Donny Trump back in the White House. Trump has repeatedly expressed his opposition to the entire notion of USFK and I suspect he would try to withdraw all our forces from there if he wins the election. Additionally, South Korea is going through a truly unprecedented demographic crisis. Their birth-rate is something like 0.78 kids per woman. That is existentially bad for society in general but also catastrophic for a nation that relies on universal conscription for its national security. If Kim waits even five years before making a move the ROKA will have a massive problem fielding enough soldiers to effectively fight the KPA. KJU is a relatively young (if unhealthy) man and he has time if he is truly dead set on re-uniting Korea by force. I think trying something now would be extremely foolish. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 40 minutes ago, Bearstronaut said: My background is Korean Peninsula analysis and I speak the language but I haven't really focused on North Korea professionally for a few years. That being said, I do try and keep up on news even if not to the level I used to. The timing seems off. If he waits a year it is possible that he may have his buddy Donny Trump back in the White House. Trump has repeatedly expressed his opposition to the entire notion of USFK and I suspect he would try to withdraw all our forces from there if he wins the election. Additionally, South Korea is going through a truly unprecedented demographic crisis. Their birth-rate is something like 0.78 kids per woman. That is existentially bad for society in general but also catastrophic for a nation that relies on universal conscription for its national security. If Kim waits even five years before making a move the ROKA will have a massive problem fielding enough soldiers to effectively fight the KPA. KJU is a relatively young (if unhealthy) man and he has time if he is truly dead set on re-uniting Korea by force. I think trying something now would be extremely foolish. "Look at me" has been the main preoccupation of NK foreign policy for 60+ years. I don't see any alteration to the strategic situation that would change that barring mental illness on Kim's part. Even if Trump gets back in the WH, I wouldn't rate their chances. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearstronaut Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Just now, billbindc said: "Look at me" has been the main preoccupation of NK foreign policy for 60+ years. I don't see any alteration to the strategic situation that would change that barring mental illness on Kim's part. Even if Trump gets back in the WH, I wouldn't rate their chances. Exactly. Their playbook for decades has been to ratchet up tension and then use that to gain sanction relief or food or money. I'm sure KJU would like nothing better than to realize his grandfather's dream and rule over a unified Korea but I doubt he wants to rule a blasted, irradiated wasteland. Assuming he even survives the war that is. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billbindc Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Bearstronaut said: Exactly. Their playbook for decades has been to ratchet up tension and then use that to gain sanction relief or food or money. I'm sure KJU would like nothing better than to realize his grandfather's dream and rule over a unified Korea but I doubt he wants to rule a blasted, irradiated wasteland. Assuming he even survives the war that is. I think various parties over the years have made it very clear to him that he would not. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 hours ago, billbindc said: I'm more interested in what damage is actually being done to the T-90. Optics? Gun? Ammo explosion? What else? I bet all that external fun bits on the turret were damaged beyond use. Something triggered the turret to get locked into rotation and it doesn't appear to be because the TC was slumped over the controls. Additionally, something blew up in the frontal arc of the tank. My guess is an ERA block, which makes me wonder why other blocks didn't make a similar boom. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Either someone is switching a really big lamp on and off at Belgogrod or I would say that a high voltage transformer is burning. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 hours ago, billbindc said: Bottom line: Sanctions, attrition, demographic issues, labor short falls and the rest all are working as expected to damage Russian power. The only difference is the expectation in timeline. It's happening slower than we expected...just as the collapse in Russian offensive power happened much faster than we expected. We thought we had (Russian) Afghanistan II, then it turned for a while into Braveheart and now it's WWI circa 1916. This too shall pass. Yes, it's all about the pacing. I remember early in the war I (and others) sketched out what collapse might look like. Everything said then was accurate, including their ability to some degree work around some sanctions. What has been wrong is the timeline. Even people that understand the Russian cultural mindset and the reality of Putin's regime are surprised at how little sign of internal opposition there is. I've said many times I overestimated the Western shift in attitude of Moscow and St. Petersburg since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The shift is there for sure, but those who embraced it the most left Russia en mas. Since seeing that happen I kinda slapped my forehead and said "doh! Of course they picked up and left rather than being beaten in the streets". Since I was counting on these people to be the spark to ignite something larger, that something larger didn't happen. So now we're left with the longer term scenario of waiting for Russia's internal quality of life to drop so low that the masses react. Since we have no idea where the breaking point is, not to mention how close Russians are to it, we're all going to be surprised when collapse actually happens. Because it will, even if Ukraine surrendered in full tomorrow. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosuri Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 This has potential to be huge: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26885 Ukranians reaching leningrad by drone means they can strike ust-luga and primorsk, two out of three big oil export terminals on the western side of russia. Third being novorossisk, which, well ... Ukraine might decide to go sanctions schmanctions at some point and truly bork russian exports for good. At the very least russia needs to dedicate some resources to guard against careless smoking at the oil terminals, which is away from other uses ... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chibot Mk IX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 hours ago, billbindc said: I'm more interested in what damage is actually being done to the T-90. Optics? Gun? Ammo explosion? What else? Just saw a pic of the abandoned T-90M In CM's language, it is: Optics: X CITV: X Weapon control: X Main Gun : X the two bright flash in the video are the smoke grenades discharged from the launcher. So all the smoke grenades are gone too. And from the pic the smoke launchers seem to be taken a badly damages. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 8 minutes ago, mosuri said: This has potential to be huge: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26885 Ukranians reaching leningrad by drone means they can strike ust-luga and primorsk, two out of three big oil export terminals on the western side of russia. Third being novorossisk, which, well ... Ukraine might decide to go sanctions schmanctions at some point and truly bork russian exports for good. At the very least russia needs to dedicate some resources to guard against careless smoking at the oil terminals, which is away from other uses ... Indeed. We've seen how totally unable Russia is to defend its skies even close to the Ukrainian border which has the highest concentration of AD assets in all of Russia. If Ukraine can get something through that zone, it's relatively smooth sailing after that as far as the drone can take it. Oil infrastructure is by its nature extremely vulnerable. Big, fixed position, and highly flammable targets tend to be Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said: Just saw a pic of the abandoned T-90M In CM's language, it is: Optics: X CITV: X Weapon control: X Main Gun : X the two bright flash in the video are the smoke grenades discharged from the launcher. So all the smoke grenades are gone too. And from the pic the smoke launchers seem to be taken a badly damages. I saw the guess of the smoke discharges being the cause of the bright flash. I would expect to have seen a lot of residual smoke after and did not. Regardless, however, for sure they would get damaged. They are just bits of relatively mild steel. A Brad's 25mm splash would be enough to wreck them. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akd Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 minutes ago, Chibot Mk IX said: Just saw a pic of the abandoned T-90M In CM's language, it is: Optics: X CITV: X Weapon control: X Main Gun : X the two bright flash in the video are the smoke grenades discharged from the launcher. So all the smoke grenades are gone too. And from the pic the smoke launchers seem to be taken a badly damages. The 3D17 grenades are burning in the launchers then detonate inside them. That is not normal deployment for 3D17, which should be launched 50m up and away from tank before detonating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chibot Mk IX Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 minutes ago, akd said: The 3D17 grenades are burning in the launchers then detonate inside them. That is not normal deployment for 3D17, which should be launched 50m up and away from tank before detonating. I will check the video again when I get a chance, but I remember the first flash is about 30m away from the T90 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 3 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said: With English subtitles. German journalists interview an AFU Leopard 2 crew. They said they were hit with a 120 mm shell but survived because of the tank, which will be repaired in Lithuania. I've read UKR tankers have very good opinion about Stridsvang 122 - Sweden version of Leo2 and many issues about German ones, because German Leo2 are "too tender", less stable for cold, dirt and to combat overload in that time that Sweden tanks are more appropriate for real war. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 47 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said: My guess is an ERA block, which makes me wonder why other blocks didn't make a similar boom. This was smoke grenade. ERA blocks don't activate when 23-30 mm shells hit them. You can recall video of 2014, when UKR tank got several hits in front turret from BMP-2, but Kontakt-1 ERA didn't activate 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 minute ago, Haiduk said: This was smoke grenade. ERA blocks don't activate when 23-30 mm shells hit them. You can recall video of 2014, when UKR tank got several hits in front turret from BMP-2, but Kontakt-1 ERA didn't activate Yup! This and Chibot Mk IX's examination explain everything, I think! Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 One more FPV hit in weak zone in hull top-behind the turret. No nuke, but cooked off anyway 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan/california Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddy Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 27 minutes ago, mosuri said: This has potential to be huge: https://www.kyivpost.com/post/26885 Ukranians reaching leningrad by drone means they can strike ust-luga and primorsk, two out of three big oil export terminals on the western side of russia. Third being novorossisk, which, well ... Ukraine might decide to go sanctions schmanctions at some point and truly bork russian exports for good. At the very least russia needs to dedicate some resources to guard against careless smoking at the oil terminals, which is away from other uses ... On top of that this happened => Russian Lukoil Refinery Incident Has Moscow Considering Gasoline Export Ban | OilPrice.com. Production of petrol has been halted at one of the biggest refineries and the incident happened on Friday, 12th Jan. Quote The NORSI refinery in Nizhny Novgorod is one of the biggest oil refineries in the country, and Monday’s unspecified incident is the third such incident since the beginning of the New Year. Stoppages affected thousands of tons per day in two separate incidents in the first week of January, according to Reuters. and Quote "The breakdown is serious... There will be a reduction in production of AI-95, AI-98 (gasoline grades) this month," Reuters cited one source as saying. They only just re-started gasoline exports in mid-November and now it looks like they may have to stop them again. UATV on YouTube said it was because something (a Catalyst/Catalyser/Cata-something - I have no idea) broke and needs Western parts to fix. Dunno if the cause is true (not sure how reputable UATV is), but I trust Reuters that production has stopped. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 (edited) 8 minutes ago, dan/california said: Tsargrad this is TV-channel from which you can know about Jewish-Masonic conspiracy against Russia, about that most of anglo-saxons are reptiloids and King Charles III is main reptiloid and anyway - "Russia is a motherland of elephants" ))) Edited January 18 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 (edited) 49 minutes ago, dan/california said: In addition - Russian milblogger compalins since Russia scaled mass-production of one of FPV models, UKR adapted to it and UKR EW systems quite easily supress this model, so from 10 drones only two reach tragets. And in conditions of EW fields their effective range is no more 300 m, so because this model is one of mass in army, that army can leave itself without big part of properly working drones Edited January 18 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 (edited) Interesting video - Russian BMP-3 attacks inside tree-plant and something lauch itself from the foxhole in dozen meters from IFV and knoked out it in big explosoin (or BMP ran over the mine?). After explosion Russian infantry flee in panic and UKR soldier of 3rd "Spartan" brigade of National Guard makes control shot with light AT weapon at BMP Edited January 18 by Haiduk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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