How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

The Russians on the receiving end of this must have annoyed someone.

!!!!!

Does anybody have feel for the credibility of this data? It is priceless information if it is real, and they keep updating it.

Read Dmitri every day!

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, danfrodo said:

OK, I'll just admit I don't get it.  This indicates UKR makes new BTR4 w some kind of new turret on top?  

This indicates, Ukraine keeps capability to prduce own armor. 

In recent statement of prime-minister Shmyhal' Ukrainian defense-industry complex could increased own production:

- mortar ammunitions in 42 times.

On mass production gradually are coming own manufacturing of 122/152 mm ammunition, 155 mm is preparing to launch. Main problems - powder charges, we have to import. By the way Russia buys up alsmost all cotton for powder and charges manufacturing in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.  

- APCs - in 5 times more than in November 2023 in comparison with a spring

- armored cars - in 3,4 times than in 2022.

In 2024 is planned to build 750 armored vehciles. One source in Twitter claimed UKR "Praktyka" manufactirer can produce now 5-6 "Kozak" armored cars series monthly. By security reasons there almost no any information about volumes and places of manufacturing. Probably part of manufacturers established new workshops either in western Ukraine or abroad. 

- Stugna-P ATGMs - in 4 times

[dan/california]

When you divide what this thing cost by the three hours it lasted in actual use the cost per hour must be spectacular.

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The Russians on the receiving end of this must have annoyed someone.

!!!!!

Does anybody have feel for the credibility of this data? It is priceless information if it is real, and they keep updating it.

Read Dmitri every day!

Russian LostArmor resource makes the same statistic, based on visually spotted drone usage on infantry, armor, fortified positions, arty etc. Probably this info is from there 

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

When you divide what this thing cost by the three hours it lasted in actual use the cost per hour must be spectacular.

Our experts say 250$ millions is enormously exaggregated at least in 5-6 times.   

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.newsweek.com/us-atacms-missiles-cluster-munitions-expiry-date-1857108

There are various types of ATACMS with different ranges and warheads.Hundreds of Lockheed Martin-made M39 and M39A1 missiles that are "excellent legal, precision-guided cluster weapons" are scheduled for destruction at "significant" expense to American taxpayers, said Daniel Rice, a former special adviser to Ukraine's lead commander, General Valery Zaluzhny.

 

If this is in fact true? Then it moves right to the top of the list that Jake Sullivan ought to be fired.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Our experts say 250$ millions is enormously exaggregated at least in 5-6 times.   

That is still ten million dollars an hour, more or less.....

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

When you divide what this thing cost by the three hours it lasted in actual use the cost per hour must be spectacular.

I am not sure who thought sticking this giant EM emitter in full view of broad daylight was a good idea.  I mean the thing was being tracked by a UAS the whole damned time.

[JonS]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Everywhere but a spunky little wargame thread in the middle of internet nowhere.  We had a bead on this by Apr ‘22…or at least that is how I remember it.

So, two things here:

1) we - the collective we - don't have any skin in this game. If we get it right; yay us. If we get it wrong; oh well, no harm, no foul.^ We can happily look back and say "see - we were right" while ignoring all the times we were wrong, and we also don't have to make meaningful decisions while peering forward into the murky future.

2) There have been a LOT of assertions and opinions and statements of 'fact' in this thread. I'm pretty sure if you went back and tallied them all up then the overall strike rate would look about as good as War On The Rocks. There definitely is a 'wisdom of the crowds' thing working in our favour here, but that masks a lot of outliers and outlandish stuff needed to get to that point.

 

To give a spectacular example: We said; "lol, silly Russians. Why are they bothering to dig in?"

 

^ Some individuals in this thread obviously do have a LOT of skin in this.

Edited January 3 by JonS

[dan/california]

50 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I am not sure who thought sticking this giant EM emitter in full view of broad daylight was a good idea.  I mean the thing was being tracked by a UAS the whole damned time.

Hopefully they can make a few similar decisions before they wind up in whatever the Russians are calling punishment battalions this week. 

[The_Capt]

18 minutes ago, JonS said:

So, two things here:

1) we - the collective we - don't have any skin in this game. If we get it right; yay us. If we get it wrong; oh well, no harm, no foul.^ We can happily look back and say "see - we were right" while ignoring all the times we were wrong, and we also don't have to make meaningful decisions while peering forward into the murky future.

2) There have been a LOT of assertions and opinions and statements of 'fact' in this thread. I'm pretty sure if you went up and tallied them all up then the overall strike rate would look about as good as War On The Rocks. There definitely is a 'wisdom of the crowds' thing working in our favour here, but that masks a lot of outliers and outlandish stuff needed to get to that point.

 

To give a spectacular example: We said; "lol, silly Russians. Why are they bothering to dig in?"

 

^ Some individuals in this thread obviously do have a LOT of skin in this.

This right here is why we can’t have nice things….

[JonS]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

This right here is why we can’t have nice things….

Nah. "We" have gotten a lot of stuff right (sooner or later. Literally; sooner than some, or later than some), and I'm serious about the wisdom of the crowd. But we shouldn't dislocate a shoulder patting ourselves on the back.

We also don't have anything riding on our deductions. That alone means we can be more certain in our proclamations than perhaps is justified.

Analysis from incomplete and contradictory information is hard, yo.

Edited January 3 by JonS

[Yet]

https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/buitenland/artikel/5427435/oekraine-rusland-poetin-zelensky-oorlog-nederland

 

Dutch chieff of defence and former chieff of arms declare that Ukr should get also long distance rockets to hit RU on RU territory. 'Ukr cant stay in the boxing ring with 1 hand tied on its back'. 

[chuckdyke]

28 minutes ago, Yet said:

Dutch chieff of defence and former chieff of arms declare that Ukr should get also long distance rockets to hit RU on RU territory. 'Ukr cant stay in the boxing ring with 1 hand tied on its back'. 

Correct like a game of chess in which you are not allowed to checkmate your opponent. The Vietnamese war was a little like that, not allowed to invade and capture Hanoi. 

[Beleg85]

It seems somebody was partying in Kalinigrad/Kralovec in Russian style. Still some reservations if this OSINT-er localization is correct, but it seems so;  NATO spy planes most probably know it well for long time.

 

[Vet 0369]

5 hours ago, Splinty said:

Those comics are NOT manuals. EVERYTHING the military does has an associated manual for it. Those "comics" merely contained hints on how to use the system better. My Army units would receive a box of them every few months, but we NEVER used them for training or maintenance. We would use the associated Technical or Field Manual.

 

Exactly as I said in my first sentence. It was just the military doing what the military does best; wasting monies.

[Heirloom_Tomato]

Hopefully the world can someday make them do the same for every house and vehicle in Ukraine.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-accidentally-bombs-own-village-vows-to-rebuild-homes-1.6708978

Edited January 4 by Heirloom_Tomato

[Harmon Rabb]

With all the talk of F-16s and Abrams tanks, I for one still think Dana is a pretty girl.

 

Edited January 4 by Harmon Rabb

[Vet 0369]

4 hours ago, dan/california said:

The Russians on the receiving end of this must have annoyed someone.

!!!!!

Does anybody have feel for the credibility of this data? It is priceless information if it is real, and they keep updating it.

Read Dmitri every day!

Yeah, regarding the Bushnaster fire, the Russians were in Ukraine, and they were alive!

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, JonS said:

Nah. "We" have gotten a lot of stuff right (sooner or later. Literally; sooner than some, or later than some), and I'm serious about the wisdom of the crowd. But we shouldn't dislocate a shoulder patting ourselves on the back.

We also don't have anything riding on our deductions. That alone means we can be more certain in our proclamations than perhaps is justified.

Analysis from incomplete and contradictory information is hard, yo.

Check the tape barracks lawyer.  Been saying something wrong with mass since spring ‘22.  You were totally “that kid” weren’t you?

I honestly think we have been swinging pretty well on the batting averages in trying to understand what is going on.  This is not a crowd - Vox Populi is a bit of a myth.  It is a collection of varying professionals and enthusiasts from a very wide base - Vox Expertorum (which is what Galton was really seeing).  We are fed information, often directly from the front - granted it is slanted in Ukraines direction but we still see evidence that won’t show up in a book for a few years yet.  We bounce it around and have been pretty damned accurate.

Only thing we did not really see coming was Summer offensive.  I for one was not in the “lolz Russia” camp on those dragons teeth.  But I never thought that the RA could cover off such a large frontage with what it had left last Spring.  That one surprised the hell outta me.  I would have never thought that the defensive bar was so low right now.  But of course it makes perfect sense in hindsight because it was damned low at Kyiv.

I give us an A for effort and solid B+ for results.

[Sojourner]

52 minutes ago, Heirloom_Tomato said:

Hopefully the world can someday make them do the same for every house and vehicle in Ukraine.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-accidentally-bombs-own-village-vows-to-rebuild-homes-1.6708978

But was it an accident?

Maybe Russia has recruited Milo Minderbinder.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Check the tape barracks lawyer.  Been saying something wrong with mass since spring ‘22.  You were totally “that kid” weren’t you?

I honestly think we have been swinging pretty well on the batting averages in trying to understand what is going on.  This is not a crowd - Vox Populi is a bit of a myth.  It is a collection of varying professionals and enthusiasts from a very wide base - Vox Expertorum (which is what Galton was really seeing).  We are fed information, often directly from the front - granted it is slanted in Ukraines direction but we still see evidence that won’t show up in a book for a few years yet.  We bounce it around and have been pretty damned accurate.

Only thing we did not really see coming was Summer offensive.  I for one was not in the “lolz Russia” camp on those dragons teeth.  But I never thought that the RA could cover off such a large frontage with what it had left last Spring.  That one surprised the hell outta me.  I would have never thought that the defensive bar was so low right now.  But of course it makes perfect sense in hindsight because it was damned low at Kyiv.

I give us an A for effort and solid B+ for results.

Let me rephrase my take on our discussions here about mass.  I'm going to speak mostly for myself, but what I'm saying absolutely fits what others were saying early war.

I have been skeptical of mass for some time now.  At the very least "the other guy's mass".  The fact is that the good guys have tons of varied PGMs that work as advertised, sometimes even better, so I don't care how much mass the bad guys cobble together... I've been saying for ages now (since the early 1990s) that it won't be enough to overcome precision.  More recently I skewered a RAND study that showed Russia would take the Baltics in a couple of days because I didn't think they did anything to account for the compounding chaos that PGMs (in particular Javelin) cause.  Which is why they were shocked by February/March 2022 and I wasn't.

I was *SO* convinced of this that I thought Russia would get its ass kicked years before this war started.  Not just because they had no antidote to PGMs, but also because their stuff does not work as advertised and Russia Sux™ at modern warfare.  It's a bad combination even with a good plan and excellent execution, two things Russia wasn't able to muster.

And here's the important part...

When Russia's mass attack collapsed in more ways than we can count, there was a question to ask; how much of Russia's epic military failure was due to the reliance upon mass and how much of it was due to other factors (corruption, incompetence, crap training, etc.)?  Nobody knew the answer to this question with any certainty. 

However, those of us who suspected mass was on the way out as dominant factor BEFORE the war started suspected Russia's other problems only made their failure worse.  Improve all the other stuff and there would still be a failure.  Which then got us to the question of asking if NATO could do much better.  Although I thought, and still think, the answer is "yes" because I see the US/NATO still having enough edge to win a defensive battle with mass + PGM.  Offensively?  Probably?  The kicker is friendly casualties may be too high a price to see it through.  Jury is still out on that.

To summarize... we smarty pants here called "mass is dead" early, but we also held out the possibility that there were non-mass reasons for Russia losing so badly.  Especially regarding the Kharkiv counter offensive.  In my view we haven't had real confirmation that "mass is dead" until the failures of the Ukrainian counter offensive and subsequent slaughter of Russian forces trying to regain the initiative.

At least that's my take on it.

Steve

[The_Capt]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

To summarize... we smarty pants here called "mass is dead" early, but we also held out the possibility that there were non-mass reasons for Russia losing so badly.  Especially regarding the Kharkiv counter offensive.  In my view we haven't had real confirmation that "mass is dead" until the failures of the Ukrainian counter offensive and subsequent slaughter of Russian forces trying to regain the initiative.

 

It was a bit chicken and egg as I recall.  Some thought “Russia Sux” was primary and mass being dead was an accelerant.  I personally saw it the other way.  I mean c’mon, 5 major operational axis of advance and they all fail against an opponent who has not even had time to dig in, let alone build minefields?  A opponent whose airforce is outnumber something like 10:1.  Russia sux but no one sux that bad.  Something else was happening.

I was not fully convinced until Summer ‘22 with the Russian offensive at Severodonetsk.  This year just sealed the deal.

I think we are beyond the death of mass.  We are in Defensive/Denial primacy…that is what this year has been telling me.  And that has immense implications across all military affairs.

[JonS]

35 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have been skeptical of mass for some time now.

So, coming at this from an artillery perspective, it's apparent that 'mass' means different things to different people. A lot of  folks think of mass as something like the Old Guard forming up in columns trying to smash through the heights behind La Haye Sainte in the early evening of 18 June 1815 (which failed), or the tanks of VIII Corps trying to smash past Caen on 18 July 1944 (which kinda sorta worked). Which, sure, that is mass. But that kind of raw and naive mass has been increasingly unreliable for centuries.

The inexorable trend over the centuries has been for units to fight more and more dispersed - the current concentrations in the Ukraine would have been unthinkably thin in 1943.

As time has passed soldiers and their kit at the front line became more dispersed while at the same time firepower and other effects are becoming more concentrated - or massed - in both time and space. This trend is very obvious with artillery once indirect fire became the norm. The fire from of dozens and eventually hundreds of guns spread out over dozens or hundreds of square kilometres could be massed into a single area at about the same time, first winning WWI and then critically influencing the way WWII was fought. Note that this isn't strictly a function of range - the Paris gun had an absurdly long range, but didn't really affect the course of WWI. That said, increasing range definitely drove dispersion.

The ultimate (so far) development of massing effects is PGM (incl ATGM). In some ways that sort of seems counter intuitive - how can less guns/rounds = more mass? - but it really isn't. The effect you want can now be concentrated, or massed, at exactly where you want (to within a metre or two), exactly when you want it (to within a few seconds).

On a graph over time you get two crossing lines; massing of manpower and equipment is falling fast, while massing of effects is rising about as fast.

 

tl;dr: you should be skeptical of massed manpower and equipment. It's been dying for a long time. No pun intended.

 

Edited January 4 by JonS

[cesmonkey]

While I l sincerely hope the U.S. Congress eventually delivers on an aid package for Ukraine, if they do not, I can't see the U.S. leading another meeting in Ramstein of the contact group. If the U.S. becomes a "no show", who do you think should lead the next meeting?

Would anyone actually step up to lead such a meeting?