Zeleban Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Meanwhile, a gigantic fire in Kyiv continues. A cloud of smoke in the sky for tens of kilometers. It feels like a huge oil refinery is on fire. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeleban Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Zeleban said: Meanwhile, a gigantic fire in Kyiv continues. A cloud of smoke in the sky for tens of kilometers. It feels like a huge oil refinery is on fire. As I know there are no large petroleum storages in Kyiv. And the smell was obviously not the same, when oil or petrolium burns. Just very sharp smell of chemical or plastic. City authorities say there is a fire on 2000 sq.m on storage facility in Podil district. Russian propagandists claimed there were drone factory. Greek businesman Tasos Tsiamis posted a video likely with this large fire, I hope SBU already interrogates him. Looks kile you could see this place. It's funny in this place Tesla Motors car showroom was destroyed %) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) Preliminary results of attack. Russians launched: 10 Kh-47 Kinzhal (all 10 were intercepted) 70 Kh-101 (59 intercepted) 3 Kalibr (3 intercepted) 12 S-300/Iskander-M (no interceptions, all hit Kharkiv) 4 Kh-31P (no information, likely not intercepted) 35 Shakheds (35 intercepted) Kyiv was attacked by 61 missiles (i.e. all Kinzhals were launched on Kyiv) and with 13 Shakheds After atatck several right-bank districts were partially power and water supply cutt off, now water supply is fully recovered, power lines partially restored too, but repair works are ongoing. It's claimed part of shot down Kinzhal falls down to Dnipro, but maybe this is accelerating stage of Patriot, quality is too low to say definetly Vysheve town, SW suburb of Kyiv - appartments of about 700 people were damaged In Kyiv 2 killed, 38 wounded in Kyiv oblast - 2 killed, 6 wounded. Kharkiv 1 killed, 44 wounded. Total number of victims in Ukriane on this time is 4 dead and 92 wounded. Well, Belgorod, you are just closest... Kharkiv after Russian strikes But also there are good news too, one Russian Kh-101 missile fell down on Peropavlovka village of Voronezh oblast in Russia. Seven buildings badly damaged or destroyed. Russian authorities claimed there are no victims. Second failed Russian Kh-101/555 missile fell in Stavropol region of Russia Edited January 2 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 14th separate UAV regiment destroyed for several days already fifth Russian "Buk" system. This one was destroyed on the waste heap of "Kuibyshevskaya" coal mine on westerm outskirt of Donetsk. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Jaros Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Jarosak said: "So, this is a disaster... there very big chances we are witnesses of final days or even hours of Zelenskiy regime, because I can't undertsand how any country can survive under such heavy pressure". ROFL. Author of this video is obviuos vatnik. Edited January 2 by Haiduk 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Jaros Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Next top-ace dropping on Russian ATV 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holien Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Jarosak said: Hi, just bombing the thread with YouTube links and no explanation puts you on my troll list. So care to explain your POV? 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_Morpheus_ Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 21 minutes ago, Haiduk said: "So, this is a disaster... there very big chances we are witnesses of final days or even hours of Zelenskiy regime, because I can't undertsand how any country can survive under such heavy pressure". ROFL. Author of this video is obviuos vatnik. Haiduk, don't bother yourself to answering on his comments, he is like an author of that video. Just take a look on his posts in other topics: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carolus Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 55 minutes ago, Jarosak said: Brian Berletic / Tony Carlucci is a well-known propagandist and conspiracy theorist who has been blogging about geopolitics for years. On X he closes shoulders with some of the most vile Moscowite "journos" thst bring the truth about the "Western world conspiracy" etc. His coverage of Syria was especially vile, blaming the civilian victims of Russian and Syrian warcrimes on the USA. Completely ignorable individual. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 53 minutes ago, _Morpheus_ said: Haiduk, don't bother yourself to answering on his comments, he is like an author of that video. Just take a look on his posts in other topics: Oh, I understand. Here is just for laugh what Russians write in own TG about today's strike. Highest level of copium and s...t in their brains. And many people believe in this No so much Kinzhal launches, as write Grman press and UKR TG-channels, but today next Patrot destroyed and storage for missiles to it In Odesa three storages for Harpoon missiles destroyed and hangar with laucnhers. In present time knowingly about large amount of destroyed command points with British and Polish militaries. There are 8 Kinzhals were launched, all hit own tarherts - Patriot SAM, underground storage of ATACAMS, underground command center of AFU, According to some information, Turks confirmed this [in Russian TGs is a popular to refer on different Turkish "yellow military media"] 9 generals were killed, amid then a deputy of Zaluzhnyi. In Kharkiv oblast two Iris-T destroyed, 4 Gepards and two command centers with 65 officers In Kyiv oblast except Patriot also destroyed four command centers and two hotels with merceneries from Sweden, Denmark, Lithuania and Estonia. More than 78 men More than 1000 Iris and NASAMS missiles destroyed on storage in Holosiivskyi district of Kyiv In Kropyvnyrskyi the storage with Strom Shadow missiles was destroyed and two Su-24 as well and repair base. In Odesa the losses of AFU in personnel, fuel, ammunitions are uncountable. Main result - 4 acting servicemen of BND killed and 7 Czech officers. Two French radars were destroyed. Thousands of UAVs were destroyed in Kyiv, Sumy, Kharkiv oblast - total 23 workshops, assembling these UAVs were hit. More than 45 houses were damaged by Ukrainian AD in Kyiv because AD assets was deployed in the center of the city, so 2/3 of their missiles hit buildings. Edited January 2 by Haiduk 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) Politician (Green Party) criticises "very low number" of Leopard tanks in combat ready. (Article in German) https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-krieg-nur-sehr-geringe-zahl-leopard-panzer-wohl-noch-im-kampf-einsatz-a-4af130dd-6c94-48dc-a23d-9a388285407d (excerpts translated with DeepL) At the turn of the year, the defence budget expert wrote to the defence companies involved, Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann: "Unfortunately, only a very small number of the battle tanks supplied can still be used by Ukraine." Repairs are taking a very long time because, according to the industry's repair workshop in Lithuania, there is a lack of suitable spare parts. I guess this is the aftermath of the disagreement between Germany and Poland about the details for a maintenance facility? Lack of spare parts in Lithuania is weird, though. There are those things called "train" or "truck" that should be capable of transporting spare parts for a few tanks... In addition, repair attempts by the Ukrainian army had led to further damage to the tanks. The extent to which this could be prevented through better training of mechanics or the provision of manuals, or whether repairs could be carried out in Ukraine, should be examined. @Haiduk This would be the perfect occasion to complain about Ukraine being seen as a " tumba-yumba tribe". Obviously your engineers just haven't RTFM... Edited January 2 by Butschi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kraft Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 17 hours ago, Battlefront.com said: For sure they still have a lot in reserve, but as they dig deeper into that pile they find worse equipment to restore in worse condition. This means the effort to have something increases, the quality of what that something is decreases. Put another way, Russia has already picked the tree of all the "low hanging fruit". OSINT guys have focused heavily on tanks and SPGs, not as much of IFVs. I am sure Russia has quite a lot left to drag out of fields and onto factory floors, but again the effort is going to go up and the quality down as this continues. As for the estimates of time... well... I wonder if those estimates were based on Avdiivka scale losses. As Haiduk just posted, those losses are enormous. I expect Russia will get into yet another cycle where they've lost too many too quickly for there to be adequate numbers of replacements at the ready. There is no mobilization going on in Russia. If you have a source to support this, I'd love to see it. Anyway, my point is still the same. Russia's manpower is not unlimited. It also comes in over a period of time, not whenever the MOD wants it to. The more wasteful Russia is with its manpower, the sooner it will have to make a tough decision of some sort. I had hoped that would be 2023, now I hope it will be 2024. Steve The video made a different argument, the T-62s and other rubbish were being pulled to allow time for restoration of systems that have more upgrade potential, such as T-72 versions. But of course quality will degrade. No questions, but I ask, what quality will UA support be in 2 years time? A rusty tank, IFV or truck is always better than nothing and so far 2024 appears to be quite dry, in regards to everything. Maybe US elections will change this but there are reasons as to why many things havent been supplied and I doubt those reasons are changing, as military necessity has always been 'everything is needed' and the political excuses have been countless from such amazing arguments as 'abrams too heavy' and 'taurus too complicated'. Avdiivka losses are greater than ex. Bakhmut in terms of equiptment but not russians, I do not think russia will be able to sustain this type of attack for years but all they really need is to sustain them for another 2-3 km until the city is essentially cut off. Then, the next target may differ in casulties/losses again. As for mobilisation, immigrantion for enlistment is still ongoing, as well as all other types of vulnerable nobodies getting forced, such as religious minorities and so on. Example from New Year: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/01/01/st-petersburg-police-round-up-thousands-of-migrant-workers-in-new-years-raids-reports-a83624 These thousands here are the subsection of migrants who decided to bail on mandatory enlisting, unlike the far greater amount that did enlist and is/was part of the meatwaves. Edited January 2 by Kraft 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 53 minutes ago, Butschi said: Obviously your engineers just haven't RTFM... Not engineers, but former tractorists and mechanics, many of them from villages - they never knew English more than "My name is Mykola, I live in village Mykolivka". And becase of really lack of properly translated manuals. I don't know, why MoD can't hire normal translators (and why NATO countries can't do the same from own side) Edited January 2 by Haiduk 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Capt Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 1 hour ago, Butschi said: Politician (Green Party) criticises "very low number" of Leopard tanks in combat ready. (Article in German) https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/ukraine-krieg-nur-sehr-geringe-zahl-leopard-panzer-wohl-noch-im-kampf-einsatz-a-4af130dd-6c94-48dc-a23d-9a388285407d (excerpts translated with DeepL) At the turn of the year, the defence budget expert wrote to the defence companies involved, Rheinmetall and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann: "Unfortunately, only a very small number of the battle tanks supplied can still be used by Ukraine." Repairs are taking a very long time because, according to the industry's repair workshop in Lithuania, there is a lack of suitable spare parts. I guess this is the aftermath of the disagreement between Germany and Poland about the details for a maintenance facility? Lack of spare parts in Lithuania is weird, though. There are those things called "train" or "truck" that should be capable of transporting spare parts for a few tanks... In addition, repair attempts by the Ukrainian army had led to further damage to the tanks. The extent to which this could be prevented through better training of mechanics or the provision of manuals, or whether repairs could be carried out in Ukraine, should be examined. @Haiduk This would be the perfect occasion to complain about Ukraine being seen as a " tumba-yumba tribe". Obviously your engineers just haven't RTFM... And we land on the problem with the tactical wargamers point of view. Don’t get me wrong there is strength in the micro view. It forecasted a lot of what we are actually seeing. But it misses the fact that modern militaries are in fact really complex systems built out of more complex systems. We can sit back and say “send more XYZ! What aren’t they sending more XYZ?!” Like it is the purchase menu in CM. But more western hardware means more western logistical strain. It is more than “a few spare parts”. An MBT needs something like 2-3 hours of maint for every hour of operation? These are big complex machines that need professionals with years of training to keep in the field. This Romanichal caravan of western military equipment has likely made the UAs job harder, not easier. They are trying to keep an eclectic fleet of vehicles in motion that a bunch of western nations essentially dump onto the problem. While an effective stopgap measure, if we are talking longer term war - and it looks like we are - then shifting to UA logistical and industrial military capability should take a front seat. I would be thinking about steering clear of hot and heavy complex platforms and moneyball platforms and systems that have 1) bought wins so far and 2) are cheap, easy and disposable. The western strategy has been woefully, western in this war. Sending a bunch of high end equipment that we expect to win the war in a month. When that fails…well blame the user. I mean we could solve the disparity at sea by sending Ukraine a bunch of cruise missile destroyers too but keeping them afloat would be impossible. Why we thought complex armoured formations would be any different is a testament to just how far up our own a$$es western military thought is at the moment, Edited January 2 by The_Capt 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beleg85 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 hours ago, Haiduk said: 12 S-300/Iskander-M (no interceptions, all hit Kharkiv) For this salvo casualties in the city seems fortunatelly rather small. 1 hour ago, Haiduk said: In Odesa three storages for Harpoon missiles destroyed and hangar with laucnhers. In present time knowingly about large amount of destroyed command points with British and Polish militaries. A propos discussions about Russian will to fight, war with West etc.- it is always worth to remember, that significant minority of Russian populace seems seriously convinced they already wage undeclared, conventional war with NATO, and just fear AFRF instills in weak Western minds (especially its rocket and nuclear component) limits the escalation to Ukraine. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Haiduk Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) Ukrainian outdoor, strikeball and military gears brand M-TAC officially claimed one of Russian missiles today hit their storage and one of workshops. M-TAC is exellent "self-made" brand rised since 2014, when was critical lack of modern military gears... These guys, many of which were strikeball players in short terms could launch a productions of wide assortment of different around-military stuff of own design. They have been leraning and year-to-year enhancing quality of own goods. Of course, they are not 5.11, but if you want to buy in Ukraine any element of military or outdoor clothes, footwear, accessories of good quality and not for cosmic money - this is M-TAC. Dozen thousands soldiers were equipped by them for these 9 years. I also buy something of their civil clothes and boots and always found its very suitable. Fortunately, most of their production are made on Chineese factories, but some in Ukraine too. I hope, this incident can't seriously hit their business Edited January 2 by Haiduk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harmon Rabb Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, Holien said: Hi, just bombing the thread with YouTube links and no explanation puts you on my troll list. So care to explain your POV? Out of curiosity I checkout out his profile just to get a sense of where he is coming from, because besides two YouTube videos no context was provided. He seems to have an axe to grind with the people who post in this topic. Quote It is good place ( ukraine topic) where so called intelligent people think they know everything and it is also the place where you will not find many of them trust me haha just my observation Quote They do not care . Just move on or join ukraine topic where everyone is military expert just ridiculous But hey, if he wants to trust some YouTube vatniks over guys like @The_Capt and @Haiduk. Who I'm convinced have forgotten more about military matters, than most people will know in their life. The choice is his. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Letter from Prague Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 Cruise missile destroyers would be nice, but I think cruise missiles would be better. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butschi Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) 1 hour ago, The_Capt said: And we land on the problem with the tactical wargamers point of view. Don’t get me wrong there is strength in the micro view. It forecasted a lot of what we are actually seeing. But it misses the fact that modern militaries are in fact really complex systems built out of more complex systems. We can sit back and say “send more XYZ! What aren’t they sending more XYZ?!” Like it is the purchase menu in CM. But more western hardware means more western logistical strain. It is more than “a few spare parts”. An MBT needs something like 2-3 hours of maint for every hour of operation? These are big complex machines that need professionals with years of training to keep in the field. This Romanichal caravan of western military equipment has likely made the UAs job harder, not easier. They are trying to keep an eclectic fleet of vehicles in motion that a bunch of western nations essentially dump onto the problem. While an effective stopgap measure, if we are talking longer term war - and it looks like we are - then shifting to UA logistical and industrial military capability should take a front seat. I would be thinking about steering clear of hot and heavy complex platforms and moneyball platforms and systems that have 1) bought wins so far and 2) are cheap, easy and disposable. The western strategy has been woefully, western in this war. Sending a bunch of high end equipment that we expect to win the war in a month. When that fails…well blame the user. I mean we could solve the disparity at sea by sending Ukraine a bunch of cruise missile destroyers too but keeping them afloat would be impossible. Why we thought complex armoured formations would be any different is a testament to just how far up our own a$$es western military thought is at the moment, I get your point and agree (and btw was never in the magic Leopard 2s win the war camp) but the article was specifically about the small number (18?) of German Leopard 2A6 MBTs that were delivered to Ukraine. Sure, such a system has a hugely different logistical footprint than my old car (and I have to trust the experts on what that really means because, as you say, my expertise ends at the CM purchase menu). Then again those tanks 1) came from current Bundeswehr stocks, so regular maintenance, including spare parts is already implemented, meaning that production of spare parts shouldn't come entirely on top of current production capacities. 2) The tanks were taken from a training unit, so I guess they already had to plan with higher tear and wear (of course not on combat level but still). 3) They were only a small fraction of the Bundeswehr's Leopard 2 fleet, so we are not taking about building two extra factories to meet the demand (I think?). 4) Lithuania isn't that far away from Germany and naive me thinks that even sending the stuff via DHL shouldn't upend European logistical capacities. This is really not the armchair general's perspective on my favourite toy but comes from someone working in automotive industry where I think we should be able to handle that kind of issue... Edited January 2 by Butschi 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 hours ago, Jarosak said: Please stop posting pro-Russian propaganda unless it is clearly labeled as such. Nobody here has any interest in garbage trying to be passed off as real information or informed opinion. I spent 1 minute confirming this is pro-Russian propaganda by tracking down who made it: https://www.khaosodenglish.com/politics/2020/11/04/conspiracy-blogger-tony-cartalucci-reveals-his-identity/ You have now posted twice and both times were of this nature. You are now officially warned and there will be no further warnings. NOTE - if I ban you from this thread you are banned from the entire Forum and that ban is *FOREVER*. Consider this carefully before polluting this thread again. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Battlefront.com Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 hours ago, Haiduk said: Next top-ace dropping on Russian ATV And 2 drones were used on this ATV attack! The Russian providing aid cared enough to at least try and help the guy. Must have concluded the neck wound would be fatal so he just walked away. Maybe to get help, but based on his sense of urgency I doubt it. Well, at least he didn't rob the guy. Steve 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sburke Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) never mind, Steve beat me in the 10 second google search race though it took him a minute! Ha Edited January 2 by sburke 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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