How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

It depends what is strategic goal here. If they want to grind trained and relatively well-equipped Ukrainian units defending this area in exchange for their own cannon fodder (and not elites) it is actually sound long-term plan.

 

 

Well, assuming new forms of lethal air- and ground-mobile unmanned weapons are coming into play, along with AP mines, I can see these attacks becoming an order of magnitude more bloody for the mobiks. 

Below, the 'dancing floor of war'; open fields and then housing tracts (dachas) providing little hard cover.

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Haiduk]

Russians had further success in industrial zone ("Promka") and around Donetsk water filtration facility on SE of Avdiivka. Russian milblogger told UKR forces still have some strongpoints there and situation on Promka is dynamical. Judging on posts in UKR "insider" TGs UKR troops will not try to attack captured areas so as not to lose personnel. Russians have larrha advantage in infantry, so artillery strike and FPV drones atatck on the enemy who occupied new positions are main measures to prevent their firm foothold gaining. 

 

On the norther part of front Russians slightly expanded own bridgehead behind railway to Stepove, but lost bridhehead north from coke plant

[Haiduk]

Unverified info that UKR forces allegedly expanded bridgehead in Krynky toward Korsunka village

[Tux]

As someone who grew up in east London I had good neighbours and school friends whose families came from Turkey, Greece, Ireland, New Zealand, Guyana, Iran, Iraq, Malawi, The Dominican Republic, Trinidad, Albania, Kosovo, Russia, Bangladesh, Ukraine, Nigeria, India, Pakistan, Israel, Ethiopia, Germany, Sri Lanka, China and Laos (and that’s the ones I can remember of the top of my head).  Between them they represented various different Christianities, Sikhism, Islam, Jainism, Zoroastrianism, Hinduism and Buddhism.  We all celebrate Xmas (or not) however we bloody want and oh dear god I don’t have the strength to do this again…

I feel like there’s a lot of pent up fear, anger and frustration being vented on the board recently.  I guess that’s understandable from certain members at least but wow, are there some ridiculous things being said.

Slava Ukraini.

[Haiduk]

Explosion on tarctor plant in Cheliabinsk. This is huge enterprise, producing not only tractors, but diesel engines and spare parts for them almost for all armored vehicles. Reportedly power substation on the plant blew up and olive of transformers effectly burnt out

 

 

[Carolus]

Someone thought this Russian engine factory was way too cold in winter and decided to warm it up.

Edit: Ninja'd.

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Carolus

[acrashb]

More signs of Russian stress:
"...Russia has likely moved strategic air defence systems from ... Kalingrad, to backfil recent losses..."

 

[danfrodo]

10 minutes ago, acrashb said:

More signs of Russian stress:
"...Russia has likely moved strategic air defence systems from ... Kalingrad, to backfil recent losses..."

 

We all know & Putin also knows, I suppose, that NATO is not an offensive threat, which this validates.  Good to know that RU is having to take such measures due to losses.

Meanwhile, Haiduk, and LLF providing some very good content on the war today, thanks much.  We see the RU losses at Andiivka and elsewhere and I continue to wonder whether this will ever make a significant difference.  RU burns out huge amounts of men & material but if UKR can't capitalize on it I suppose it makes some sort of twisted sense for Putin to keep doing it.

[Haiduk]

Again about sanctions and bypassing...

 

[dan/california]

The accuracy of the grenade drops against a moving vehicle is impressive.

[LongLeftFlank]

45 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I suppose it makes some sort of twisted sense for Putin to keep doing it.

3 hours ago, Harmon Rabb said:

 

The latest Perun goes into possible motives, well worth the time (as usual).

(I'm not as comely as @Harmon Rabb, being a five thousand year old animated sorceror with  no flesh on my forearms, but I also listen to Perun while working out)

Edited November 26, 2023 by LongLeftFlank

[Letter from Prague]

12 minutes ago, LongLeftFlank said:

The latest Perun goes into possible motives, well worth the time (as usual).

(I'm not as comely as @Harmon Rabb, being a five thousand year old animated sorceror with  no flesh on my forearms, but I also listen to Perun while working out)

What are you working out, if you have no flesh?

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, Tux said:

As someone who grew up in east London I had good neighbours and school friends whose families came from Turkey, Greece, Ireland, New Zealand, Guyana, Iran, Iraq, Malawi, The Dominican Republic, Trinidad, Albania, Kosovo, Russia, Bangladesh, Ukraine, Nigeria, India, Pakistan, Israel, Ethiopia, Germany, Sri Lanka, China and Laos (and that’s the ones I can remember of the top of my head).  Between them they represented various different Christianities, Sikhism, Islam, Jainism, Zoroastrianism, Hinduism and Buddhism.  We all celebrate Xmas (or not) however we bloody want and oh dear god I don’t have the strength to do this again…

I feel like there’s a lot of pent up fear, anger and frustration being vented on the board recently.  I guess that’s understandable from certain members at least but wow, are there some ridiculous things being said.

Slava Ukraini.

And the quite confident statements about the impossibility of integration and synergy from folks who clearly haven't a clue about...oh I don't know....American immigration history for instance are an excellent way to chill support from exactly the kind of folks who support Ukraine most vociferously.

 

[Letter from Prague]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

And the quite confident statements about the impossibility of integration and synergy from folks who clearly haven't a clue about...oh I don't know....American immigration history for instance are an excellent way to chill support from exactly the kind of folks who support Ukraine most vociferously.

 

And of course hearing these far-right opinions from a Ukrainian is particularly ironic considering how much effort Russia spent on the "Ukrainians are Nazis" thing. Luckily we all know not all Ukrainians are like that.

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

And of course hearing these far-right opinions from a Ukrainian is particularly ironic considering how much effort Russia spent on the "Ukrainians are Nazis" thing. Luckily we all know not all Ukrainians are like that.

Exactly. This is a war about civilizational values. If you want to kill support for Ukraine, sound like the Russians. 

[Harmon Rabb]

@LongLeftFlank's love for old school hits is infectious.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[dan/california]

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Wild weather in Ukraine.

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[kimbosbread]

57 minutes ago, billbindc said:

And the quite confident statements about the impossibility of integration and synergy from folks who clearly haven't a clue about...oh I don't know....American immigration history for instance are an excellent way to chill support from exactly the kind of folks who support Ukraine most vociferously.

American immigration is very different than the rest of the world and people would be wise to acknowledge the differences.

Because we have the best jobs, and ironically the least racism towards immigrants, and a society that fetishizes working a lot, plus a rather maleable and heterogenous national culture, it’s not that hard to fit in here. Witness the people bussed up to New York from the border, who immediately started taking delivery jobs and whatever they could find. We don’t have a huge Muslim terrorist problem, because all these young guys can find work, and it’s completely cool to have Mosque, or an Afghan man-skirt, or whatever you want (the conservatives almost certainly prefer it to a fursuit or latex, at least in public).

Immigrants who come here generally want to work as much as possible and are often quite patriotic about their new country, illegal or otherwise. It’s not that easy to get here, so you have to be smart, risk-taking, hard-working, lucky or some combination thereof.

Europe is much easier to get to, much harder to integrate into, and has a much worse economic situation. Even if as a young MENA dude you are there to just make a better life for yourself, it’s gonna be harder.

EDIT: Another anecdote: A friend of a friend is CFO for a major regional bank in the South and wishes he could lend to illegal immigrants, as he says they always repay their debt and are the best workers.

 

Edited November 26, 2023 by kimbosbread

[Haiduk]

20 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

And of course hearing these far-right opinions from a Ukrainian is particularly ironic considering how much effort Russia spent on the "Ukrainians are Nazis" thing. Luckily we all know not all Ukrainians are like that.

So, natural right of nation to defend own culture and don't turn into "multicultural Babylon" to be gradually "swallowed" by newcomers is a sign of nazism? As for me this is a sign of nation health. 

You have wrong opinion about Ukrainians, I should say. We never will greeting hordes of non-european culture migrants here. Some Muslim communities live here historically, but they are minor, and they are more "secular Muslims", so they don't make problems for us

[Harmon Rabb]

Looking good, but wish the number could be higher than 31.

Still any image of an Abrams tank in the service of the AFU is pleasant.

[billbindc]

21 minutes ago, kimbosbread said:

American immigration is very different than the rest of the world and people would be wise to acknowledge the differences.

Because we have the best jobs, and ironically the least racism towards immigrants, and a society that fetishizes working a lot, plus a rather maleable and heterogenous national culture, it’s not that hard to fit in here. Witness the people bussed up to New York from the border, who immediately started taking delivery jobs and whatever they could find. We don’t have a huge Muslim terrorist problem, because all these young guys can find work, and it’s completely cool to have Mosque, or an Afghan man-skirt, or whatever you want (the conservatives almost certainly prefer it to a fursuit or latex, at least in public).

Immigrants who come here generally want to work as much as possible and are often quite patriotic about their new country, illegal or otherwise. It’s not that easy to get here, so you have to be smart, risk-taking, hard-working, lucky or some combination thereof.

Europe is much easier to get to, much harder to integrate into, and has a much worse economic situation. Even if as a young MENA dude you are there to just make a better life for yourself, it’s gonna be harder.

EDIT: Another anecdote: A friend of a friend is CFO for a major regional bank in the South and wishes he could lend to illegal immigrants, as he says they always repay their debt and are the best workers.

 

The idea that European nations are set blocs of ethnic groups is a recent, modern conceit. Britain, for one obvious example, is a melange of Irish, Scottish, German, Norman, Welsh, Cornish, etc. It only looks, if one squints hard enough, homogeneous because popular memory is short. This is true in some degree with every nation south of the Baltic Sea and more true the further east and south one goes. It is *especially* true of Ukraine. The idea that there is an unchanging "national culture" is also, on any timescale worth mentioning, an absurdity. France, as another example, had 40+ regional dialects that were only semi mutually intelligible to each other as recently as the last 150 years. "National culture" has always been effectively an elite choice of what dialect will be promoted, what traditions will be enshrined and what myths will be used to unite a particular state. And that unity, often, was achieved at the price of the toxic nationalism that tore Europe apart twice in the last 120 years and is tearing up Ukraine today. 

 

[billbindc]

19 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

So, natural right of nation to defend own culture and don't turn into "multicultural Babylon" to be gradually "swallowed" by newcomers is a sign of nazism? As for me this is a sign of nation health. 

You have wrong opinion about Ukrainians, I should say. We never will greeting hordes of non-european culture migrants here. Some Muslim communities live here historically, but they are minor, and they are more "secular Muslims", so they don't make problems for us

To claim that multiculturalism is "Babylon" is a universal precursor to every version of fascist authoritarianism and the idea that cultural change via immigration destroys nations runs up against the obvious example of America as a superpower. Your approach to this subject is flat out Putinist.  

 

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The idea that European nations are set blocs of ethnic groups is a recent, modern conceit. Britain, for one obvious example, is a melange of Irish, Scottish, German, Norman, Welsh, Cornish, etc. It only looks, if one squints hard enough, homogeneous because popular memory is short. This is true in some degree with every nation south of the Baltic Sea and more true the further east and south one goes. It is *especially* true of Ukraine. The idea that there is an unchanging "national culture" is also, on any timescale worth mentioning, an absurdity. France, as another example, had 40+ regional dialects that were only semi mutually intelligible to each other as recently as the last 150 years. "National culture" has always been effectively an elite choice of what dialect will be promoted, what traditions will be enshrined and what myths will be used to unite a particular state. And that unity, often, was achieved at the price of the toxic nationalism that tore Europe apart twice in the last 120 years and is tearing up Ukraine today. 

True to a point, but we are talking about scale and scope of migation that is unprecedented in last generations and only growing stronger. Also Scotts, Germans, Normans and so on were all coming from roughly similar cultural millieu, based on latin concepts/religion/civitas/humanism whatever this thing "European culture" is. To think that people from Africa, Middle East and other completelly different civilizational models will simply integrate- cause we are so awsome, right?- is rather risky assumption. Cultures exists objecively, like it or not; and while most of us can transcend them individually (under right circumstances), it is in our best interest to be more prudent about limits of our integrations, when millions of people are coming to Europe yearly. And it's just a start; climate migrations are ahead of us. Add "D Weapon", fully utilized already by Lukashenka and soon by Russians in Finland. Various autocrats, non-state actors and rogue states know perfectly well where our Achilles heel lies.

Also he didn't mean (I hope at least) nationalism- it's one of great problems with curent western debate, mixing nationalism with nationhood- even smart guys like Tim Snyder don't get it, overusing former label to a point when even French Revolution becomes "peak nationalism". USA is truly different ballpark and integation model, it's political nation focused on progressive Enlightment ideas and born on "open" borders. A different polity than old, closed and tired European nation-states.

But yeah, a complex topic to be sure.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Hypothermia or Crocodile?

Good old C2H5OH. Looks dead drunk to me.