How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Harmon Rabb]

1 hour ago, Hapless said:

Ukraine hitting the nail on the head again:

 

Absolutely brilliant video.

Personally I enjoy cooking, I know how to make a pretty damn good steak. But when you go to cooking instruction videos on YouTube you don't generally see comments like this, because most people can admit they don't know everything there is to know about cooking.

When it comes to anything to do with the military/war, in my experience those videos attract a certain internet tough guy type, who being an internet tough guy knows everything their is to know about warfare. Because maybe he played Call of Duty or even watched Black Hawk Down 10 years ago. I'm not even talking about the obvious paid Russian trolls here.

Thank goodness for resources like this forum, where informed people can actually help people understand the situation on the battlefield.

And this is coming from someone who the closest they came to war was playing DCS and Arma on my PC.

 

 

[Jiggathebauce]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

So if that was true - how come a supposed raping/terrorizing SS soldier was never accused in Nuremberg and instead got a Canadian citizenship?

Shouldn't that be a big no no in 1954 when there was a ton of witnesses alive and Canada itself fought in WW2? And he wasn't the only one who got the citizenship by far. I mean if he is a war criminal then he should've stood trial. There were 78 years to do it, no? He wasn't hiding.

But now he is a war criminal out of the blue without the trial or proof because exactly ignorance.

If SS Galicia committed such horrible crimes against locals - we would be seeing evidence of that every step of the way as Ukrainians are rather touchy regarding traitors of their own during those times. We would be seeing court cases all over every territory and from relatives they tortured and raped. No? Certainly not getting citizenships in Canada.

Or maybe they were indeed used to fight russians.

Are you being  ****ing serious?  Lots of war criminals got away with it, particularly if they had useful skills that governments could employ in missiles and rockets. Frankly I thinks every single person who fought on that side of the war should have been behind bars or shot. 

 For you as a Ukrainian, are you aware that the goal of the fascists was to exterminate your country and it's people completely? If they got you to fight for them before finishing, it was just a bonus for them.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[kimbosbread]

Ooooh I like this. I was hoping we’d see a drone detector that would give off a sidewinder growl or something that could be clipped into a standard military headset. Cheap, simple and practical!

 

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1708504126898757939

 

But the most amazing ammo on the way to Ukraine are a whoping $134.5m in M1147 rounds for Abrams tanks! The M1147 is the US Army's most modern (!) round and specifically designed to ruthlessly butcher enemy infantry in trenches!

 

Do we think this is true? because it implies a later model version of the Abrams than I thought they were getting. It also seems like the perfect round for how so much of the fighting in Ukraine seems to go. And yes I understand a guided mortar shell works just as well, but this does imply that at least we are trying to make the Abrams we sent as effective as possible.

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

So if that was true - how come a supposed raping/terrorizing SS soldier was never accused in Nuremberg and instead got a Canadian citizenship?

This has already been covered a little bit, but it boils down to the Western governments prioritizing resources and trying to find every single lowly individual who had some tie to warcrimes was not even possible, so they didn't try.  For the most part refugees were processed with the presumption of innocence unless there was some reason to doubt the person's wartime account.  I already mentioned the case of the Ukrainian concentration camp guard Demjanjuk who was a naturalized US citizen until they found out he had lied on his immigration paperwork.

In other words, the process for vetting refugees was incredibly flawed by circumstances as well as design.  Lots of war criminals avoided identification.

There were also expedient decisions made that were intended to resolve bothersome problems.  The Ukrainian survivors in Allied hands could either be deported to the Soviet Union (and presumably murdered), they could undergo very lengthy and resource consuming trials, or they could just be swept under the rug.  The Allies chose the latter even though the Nuremberg Trials definitely cited the 14th SS for war crimes.

3 hours ago, kraze said:

Shouldn't that be a big no no in 1954 when there was a ton of witnesses alive and Canada itself fought in WW2? And he wasn't the only one who got the citizenship by far. I mean if he is a war criminal then he should've stood trial. There were 78 years to do it, no? He wasn't hiding.

You don't have to hide if nobody is looking for you or, as was the case here, the government didn't want bad publicity so it squashed efforts to "reopen old wounds".

3 hours ago, kraze said:

But now he is a war criminal out of the blue without the trial or proof because exactly ignorance.

If SS Galicia committed such horrible crimes against locals - we would be seeing evidence of that every step of the way as Ukrainians are rather touchy regarding traitors of their own during those times. We would be seeing court cases all over every territory and from relatives they tortured and raped. No? Certainly not getting citizenships in Canada.

Or maybe they were indeed used to fight russians.

Nobody is saying this guy actively participated in war crimes.  We don't know if he did or didn't.  What we do know is that he was a member of an SS unit that was documented to have committed war crimes above and beyond the "norm" for German led forces.

A serious question for you... do you view cooks and clerks of Russian units that participated in war crimes, such as Bucha, to be free of any sort of guilt?  Based on your previous comments about the collective guilt of Russians, I already know the answer.  You should attempt to not be hypocritical.

3 hours ago, kraze said:

If SS Galicia committed such horrible crimes against locals - we would be seeing evidence of that every step of the way as Ukrainians are rather touchy regarding traitors of their own during those times. We would be seeing court cases all over every territory and from relatives they tortured and raped. No? Certainly not getting citizenships in Canada.

As I said in my previous post, people tend to be ignorant of history to include their own.  You have decided to accept a very superficial and distorted view of the 14th SS because it fits in with your view of Ukraine's legitimate struggle against Soviet impression.  But the reality is the 14th SS was created and commanded by Nazis who were carrying out the orders of Adolf Hitler.  They were never, ever, EVER intended to be a tool for Ukrainian independence.  Ever.

3 hours ago, kraze said:

Or maybe they were indeed used to fight russians.

No, it was used primarily for rear area "pacification" operations, which is a nice way of saying war crimes.  The first frontline use (Brody) did not go well and after that they were relegated to more "pacification" activities in Slovakia and Slovenia.  This is documented and not subject to dispute.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Jiggathebauce said:

Are you being  ****ing serious?  Lots of war criminals got away with it, particularly if they had useful skills that governments could employ in missiles and rockets. Frankly I thinks every single person who fought on that side of the war should have been behind bars or shot. 

I have to say that my view of war criminality has changed significantly in my older years, but in particular since this war started.  Let's just say I am a much bigger supporter of the concept of "collective guilt" than I ever used to be.

A quick related story.  I have a very old Bundeswehr general's uniform in my uniform collection.  Based on various bits of evidence I narrowed down who it once belonged to.  During the war he was an intelligence officer who worked under Gehlen.  He was (obviously) never tied directly to any war crimes, however he oversaw responsibility for a very large occupied area that involved numerous war crimes.  What are the chances that this officer didn't provide information that was used in the commission of those criminal acts?  I'd say just about zero.  I am not naive.

Then there's Kurt Waldheim.  Undoubtedly a war criminal by any reasonable definition of the term, yet also a Secretary General of the UN.

Just because something wasn't done in the name of higher ideals doesn't mean it shouldn't have.  We live in a highly flawed and unjust world.  It's not smart to disregard reality in order to defend the indefensible.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/01/opinion/volunteering-supplies-ukraine-military.html

No, but there is a kind of Amazon for the Ukrainian military, in analog form: a network of civilian volunteer groups that deliver an array of goods to soldiers in the field, on request.

I know because I’m one of those volunteers. We deliver tourniquets, chest seals for lung wounds, observation drones, night vision monoculars, power banks, underwear and feet warmers, all within a few days. A secondhand four-wheel-drive vehicle or a thermal drone takes a little longer, up to two weeks.

 

 

[Vanir Ausf B]

41 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Do we think this is true? because it implies a later model version of the Abrams than I thought they were getting. It also seems like the perfect round for how so much of the fighting in Ukraine seems to go. And yes I understand a guided mortar shell works just as well, but this does imply that at least we are trying to make the Abrams we sent as effective as possible.

I could be wrong, but AFAIK the APM munition has not yet entered serial production. AMP also requires the SEPv3 data link. Could the Pentagon have upgraded the M1A1s to SEPv3 and shipped some pre-production AMP rounds to Ukraine for real-world testing? I wouldn't rule it out but it seems unlikely since the main rationale for sending the M1A1 was to get it into Ukraine as fast as possible.

Edited October 1, 2023 by Vanir Ausf B

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

I have been of this view since mid 2022. This labels me as a pessimist on this forum, although I have very badly wanted the Russians to hit their 'Uncle' point first, and quit, as they did in A'Stan, then Eastern Europe and then the USSR itself.

There is a very strong case to make that Russia will outlast Ukraine's short term efforts.  It would be quite wrong, in my opinion, to label someone who thinks the fuzzy line is clear enough to rule that out.  So who is to say if you are more pessimistic or more realistic than those who are more confident Russia will collapse?  Only time will tell.  However, there's only so far either side can push in the fuzzy area before veering into "pessimist" or "cheerleader" because there still are objective facts that put guardrails on certain lines of thinking.

I prefer thinking of you as a healthy skeptic than a pessimist.

3 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Unfortunately, the Arsenal of Democracy doesn't exist any more. There are probably as many or more cheerful Ukrainian Vikings capable and interested in becoming skilled machinists (or CAD draftsmen) than North Americans today, at a 10x population delta.  (And those in N.A. who do try to go into these fields are overwhelmingly Asian immigrants).

...The frat boys I went to uni with in the '80s who (unlike me, no I was the 'smart guy', too clever for all that) went to the elite banking jobs on Bay Street/Wall Street, and then on to private equity. Pretty much everyone else in our age group who chose a different profession has either struggled to prosper in a world shaped by these sh*theads, or basically become one of them, or served them. Time has done the rest, most of the folks who could recreate and manage the world we lived in as of Desert Storm 1991 are retired or dead.

A major component of "empire" is the ability for the established population to occupy the best jobs and bring in workers from outside to do the rest of the work.  The US would go hungry within weeks if migrant labor was cut out of the equation.  It would take a little longer to have a shortage of lumber and other things (migrant labor from central/south America is used in the forests where I live, despite us being on the Canadian border).  The same is true for many technical positions, such as engineers and medical professionals. 

Lately the lack of migrant labor and restrictions on various work visas is showing how bad things are.  My state is trying to combat this by brand new investments in trade schools instead of just plowing money into the university system.  Better late than never.

Steve

[Kraft]

M777 with a blown barrel from use/bad ammo

[cesmonkey]

This seems likely to me how more funding for Ukraine will get approved:

Graham says Ukraine aid will not be separated from border funding
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4232668-graham-says-ukraine-aid-will-not-be-separated-from-border-funding/

[poesel]

13 minutes ago, Kraft said:

M777 with a blown barrel from use/bad ammo

This looks like a failure of the muzzle brake and the barrel is ok. But I'm no expert.
Obviously, you cannot tow the gun as easily anymore, but could it still be fired?

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

This seems likely to me how more funding for Ukraine will get approved:

Graham says Ukraine aid will not be separated from border funding
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4232668-graham-says-ukraine-aid-will-not-be-separated-from-border-funding/

Yes and this reinforces a discussion we had a couple of months ago about work around options.  At the time people familiar with the way the US government works pointed out that there's very little wiggle room for a President unless either the Senate or the House is in agreement.  Not ideal, but far better than the President being on his/her own.

Steve

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

Ooooh I like this. I was hoping we’d see a drone detector that would give off a sidewinder growl or something that could be clipped into a standard military headset. Cheap, simple and practical!

 

We have several different developers/manufacturers of such devices, some of them work better, some worse, but anyway amateur production lines can assemble too few of these devices to supply each squad. And not each soldier even know about these devices. MoD and defense industry as usually don't see these inventions in order to unite developers, give equipmemt and finalize product. The state thinks and makes decision too looooong time, so such drone detectors like and trench-EW still a sector of "Volunteer Research LTD" 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, kimbosbread said:

Ooooh I like this. I was hoping we’d see a drone detector that would give off a sidewinder growl or something that could be clipped into a standard military headset. Cheap, simple and practical!

 

In additions - in comments a good video of UKR EW asset work. Operator shows on the screen frequencies, using by ZALA and Lancets in range 867 - 870 MHz, lower he shows result of supression - likely equal lines are supressed channels, but in last lines there are  dots and disturbances. Operator says this is UAV tries to rebuild control channel, fighting with supression 

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, paxromana said:

It is virtually impossible to shut down a rail line ... track repairs, as you note, generally take mere hours. Switching gear is a little harder.

Power supplies for electric trains requires more precisiopn than the Russians are showing even now and, as Ukraine has already shown, they have the capacity to switch to diesel for the short outages.

The thing that really disrupted the Western French rail net in the runup (and follow on) from Normandy was the Allied Airforces dropping every bridge within 200 miles of the invasion beaches and then having air Supremacy that made daylight road marches to the front ... lethal.

In Germany the Strategic Bombing Campaign again only started to shut down German rail traffic when the bridges started to be dropped* and, perhaps more importantly, they started hitting the Switching Yards so new consists could only be formed by physically tipping rolling stock off the rails (effectively destroying it).

And, of course, with Air Supremacy Fighter and Fighter Bomber Jocks found that shooting up trains with cannon and HMG is great fun!

* By the end of the war the SBS estimated that nowhere in Germany could trains run more than 12 miles (IIRC) without running into something the prevented further travel - either completely or until repaired.

In the modern era, I disagree.  C4ISR and precision means one can essentially unravel transportation infrastructure.  Air superiority and supremacy likely don't apply either, you need only ensure you are not entirely denied.  It is less about hitting rail -however if the RA had concentrated on bridges, which they could target from Google Earth, it would have been a start- it is about destroying systems.  In fact EBO sprung out of the failures of the strategic bombing campaigns; don't hit everything, hit that one thing to get an effect.

So you hit the entire system.  Repair/maint depots.  Line controls and switching infra.  The individual trains themselves.  Transport nodes.  Energy supplies.  Then you start targeting the people with the expertise to run the rail line, they are legitimate targets if those lines are part of the war effort.  A snowstorm can cripple a rail line, so can a modern deep strike campaign.

So I suspect the shortfall on the Russian side was C4ISR for precise targeting and "know how".  I am betting Russia does not have a centralized operational targeting enterprise - a bunch of stovepiped and untrusting commanders all doing "something" to show the boss they are onside.  I don't think they had the resolution to hit individual trains or precise targets.  They had enough missiles and 18+ months.  

My concern is that these latest hits are demonstration of more precise targeting.  Which means they got their act together, got lucky or someone is pumping them really high res ISR - could be all three.  None of that is good news.

[Haiduk]

46 minutes ago, Kraft said:

M777 with a blown barrel from use/bad ammo

UKR artillerymen discuss this in chat and complain this is because quality of Pakistanian L15 ammunition. 

- L15, bi..c

- Maybe RAP?
- likely L15, we had the same

- Is this Pakistan made this?

- Pakistan is complete fu..g sh...t - from 10 shells 8 don't explode

- Or they tear off barrels! On SP-gun! Iran, Pakistan on BMs [means Grad] they either don't go out or tear off packets!  

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[JonS]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

This looks like a failure of the muzzle brake and the barrel is ok. But I'm no expert.
Obviously, you cannot tow the gun as easily anymore, but could it still be fired?

There are;

Breech prems (horrible horrible events)

Bore prems (bad, but can make for amusing photos)

Muzzle prems (can be very bad, depending on battery layout)

Flight prems (problematic, and a cause for serious concern ... quite aside from the potential for fratricide)

The cause for any of those is far from easy to define, although the different types of prem each have more- or less-likely causes. It could be a wonky fuse, an obstruction in the barrel/muzzle, defective projectile, poor ammo handling proceedures, poor drills by the gun crews, force majure, etc. Without a full investigation, you're just left hoping it was a one off, and not a systematic problem with the ammo batch or fuse batch or the drills of the gun crew (assuming they survived).

That particular barrel appears to be ok, but I really wouldn't want to push anything other than a bore brush through it until its had a full tech inspection. *Something* caused the prem, and it'd be more than nice to know what it was before trying that again. Also there could be internal damage to the rifling, the front section of the barrel was likely overstressed by the detonation,  and the recoil system probably needs to be checked since it wouldn't have functioned in the way it was designed with this round. Specifically, the muzzle brake normally 'pulls' the barrel forward reducing stress on the recoil system, but of course that wouldn't have happened with this round, and obviously couldn't on any future rounds. Also, the mass of the muzzle brake forms an important part of the fine balance of the barrel assembly - without it working the elevating gears is really tough, and probably really damaging to the fine gears. It also makes the fine adjustments absolutely needed for accurate fire all but impossible. On the other hand, firing *this* gun /without/ removing the remains of the muzzle brake (to keep the balance roughly right) would do weird things to the trajectory since the air pressure on the round as it transitioned out of the barrel would be all over the place, which would itself bollix accuracy in random ways,  due to the modern art sculpture now sitting where the muzzle brake used to be.

*could* it be fired? Well ... yeesss. At least once more ...

*should* it be fired? Oh hellz no!

 

Edit: just saw Haiduk's post about Pakistani ammo. Aye, some manufacturers/countries rapidly get a poor reputation. We used to use Hirtenberger ammo for the 81mm mortar; lovely stuff - reliable and a delight to work with. But really expensive. So it got replaced by cheaper ammo from [differentcountry]. Yikes. Yiiiiikes.

Edited October 1, 2023 by JonS

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Jiggathebauce said:

 For you as a Ukrainian, are you aware that the goal of the fascists was to exterminate your country and it's people completely? If they got you to fight for them before finishing, it was just a bonus for them.

It's easy to judge about situation with contemporary knowledges, dividing all to white and black. As I told in Baltia and Ukraine were many grey shades and it wasn't obvious who is good guy and who is bad in conditions of war "all against all" (yes, we had more than two sides here and had even inner war inside national resistance for control). So, the choice of many, who were under Stalin's power even two years was obvious, that even Germans appeared more "civilized" (since "Distrikt Galicia" hadn't so hard occupation regime and terror, like on other part of Ukraine). Service in Waffen SS was a single chance to establish national regular armies for fight with Sovites. With future goal "when Allies will come we will uprise" or "let Soviets and Germany exsanguinate each other and we will take power and claim own existance as a state and nation". And here was main differense between OUN wing of Bandera (main social base - rural and small towns population), who were strictly against idea of UKR Waffen SS and OUN wing of Melnyk (main social base intelligentsia, students, population of cities, enterpreneurs). Latter didn't believe in capability of let even numerous, but usual partisans in forests to defeat regular armies and seize power. Balts also went by this way.  

The same hopes had Polish Army Krajowa, in Warsaw uprising - "to claim own rights on power after expelling of Germans", though they had own legitimate government in exile. And how to be with Finns, Romanians, Italians who initially fought for Axis, but then crossed on Allied side? They never did warcrimes?    

Edited October 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[kimbosbread]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

We have several different developers/manufacturers of such devices, some of them work better, some worse, but anyway amateur production lines can assemble too few of these devices to supply each squad. And not each soldier even know about these devices. MoD and defense industry as usually don't see these inventions in order to unite developers, give equipmemt and finalize product. The state thinks and makes decision too looooong time, so such drone detectors like and trench-EW still a sector of "Volunteer Research LTD" 

A friend and I have substantial experience in this area and I figured it might be worth a stab (many years ago we had an unsuccessful embedded hardware startup), as there is a relatively small band of frequencies used by the majority of small drones. You need to cover 700-1300mhz and the two WiFi ranges and you are solid (so an RTL-SDR and then a wifi chip), and I’m pretty sure it’d be easy to classify drones roughly by frequency and by the signals sent over the wire (at least for WiFi enthusiasts like us). This is an EE grad student semester project in terms of complexity level for a prototype. Productionizing it would cost $50-200k.

As I posited many pages ago, I think there’s a realistic, near-term path to build an anti-radition drone to go after drone operators or drones in the air themselves. You take the above signal detector + some basic computer vision setup running on something like a rasberry pi, and have it go after a certain signal. Tracking the drone is easier because of the omni antenna and larger signal (sending video) and the fact it is moving so triangulation is easier even with one antenna.

Edit: Think of this as counter-battery, but for drones.

Edited October 1, 2023 by kimbosbread

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

It's easy to judge about situation with contemporary knowledges, dividing all to white and black. As I told in Baltia and Ukraine were many grey shades and it wasn't obvious who is good guy and who is bad in conditions of war "all against all" (yes, we had more than two sides here and had even inner war inside national resistance for control). So, the choice of many, who were under Stalin's power even two years was obvious, that even Germans appeared more "civilized" (since "Distrikt Galicia" hadn't so hard occupation regime and terror, like on other part of Ukraine). Service in Waffen SS was a single chance to establish national regular armies for fight with Sovites. With future goal "when Allies will come we will uprise" or "let Soviets and Germany exsanguinate each other and we will take power and claim own existance as a state and nation"

The same hopes had Polish Army Krajowa, in Warsaw uprising , though they had own legitimate government in exile. And how to be with Finns, Romanians, Italians who initially fought for Axis, but then crossed on Allied side? They never did warcrimes?    

Anyone who hasn't read Timothy Snyders "Bloodlands" book should do so.The extent of the 360 degree awfulness pretty much anywhere between Berlin and Moscow was simply incomprehensible from 1900 to 1950. Not to say that it was the same everywhere in that large expanse of territory, but it was some flavor of awful in almost all of it. There was a whole lot of intentional forgetting after that, because it was the only way to get thru the day.

BTW I almost always read a book in a week or less, "Bloodlands" took me six months just because it is to awful to take more than little tiny bits.

Edited October 1, 2023 by dan/california

[billbindc]

3 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

This seems likely to me how more funding for Ukraine will get approved:

Graham says Ukraine aid will not be separated from border funding
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4232668-graham-says-ukraine-aid-will-not-be-separated-from-border-funding/

Simply put, control of just over 1/2 of 1/3rd of the US government isn't really enough to stop what the rest of it wants. There  will be some delays in votes and some bumps along the way buy what has happened in the House is ultimately a good thing for Ukraine. The Putin wing of the House GOP caucus just tried to shut down the government, overstepped politically and failed. This coming week, there will be a motion to vacate the Speaker's chair and Democrats very likely step in to save McCarthy as there aren't really the vote in the GOP caucus for anyone else would take the job if they won it.

The price of that action will be aid to Ukraine. Finis.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Anyone who hasn't read Timothy Snyders "Bloodlands" book should do so.The extent of the 360 degree awfulness pretty much anywhere between Berlin and Moscow was simply incomprehensible from 1900 to 1950. Not to say that it was the same everywhere in that large expanse of territory, but it was some flavor of awful in almost all of it. There was a whole lot of intentional forgetting after that, because it was the only way to get thru the day.

BTW I almost always read a book in a week or less, "Bloodlands" took me six months just because it is to awful to take more than little tiny bits.

Similar to Wedgewood's "30 Years War" in that respect. 

At Calw the pastor saw a woman gnawing the raw flesh of a dead horse on which a hungry dog and some ravens were also feeding. In Alsace the bodies of criminals were torn from the gallows and devoured; in Zweibrücken a woman confessed to having eaten her child. Acorns, goats' skins, grass, were all cooked in Alsace; cats, dogs, and rats were sold in the market at Worms. In Fulda and Coburg and near Frankfort and the great refugee camp, men went in terror of being killed and eaten by those maddened by hunger. Near Worms hands and feet were found half cooked in a gipsies' cauldron. Not far from Wertheim human bones were discovered in a pit, fresh, fleshless, sucked to the marrow.

[Seedorf81]

Another sign of growing problems in Russia.

Title of article: "Russian police crisis. Burned out, disappointed, demoralised."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66924404

If the Russian police starts to complain, there must be some serious discontent. And if a dictator looses support of his police-force, well, that makes revolts (in most countries, but with Russia you'll never know) more likely/possible.  

[Harmon Rabb]

Here we go again, where have I heard all of this before?