How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kraft]

2 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

That's a shame if true. If that's true I guess I have to keep in mind that the Ukrainian MoD also uses propaganda.

Or they did not fact check and just reposted false content unknowingly, happened to me too several times already. 

[akd]

3rd Assault Brigade clearing Andriivka, part 2 (mostly unseen footage, I believe):

Really stresses the tactical importance of root cellars in these small settlements.

Also, more SMArt work:

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by akd

[Harmon Rabb]

Neat.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[paxromana]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Superseded ...

Edited September 28, 2023 by paxromana

[Kraft]

1 hour ago, akd said:

3rd Assault Brigade clearing Andriivka, part 2 (mostly unseen footage, I believe):

Really stresses the tactical importance of root cellars in these small settlements.

3rd AB doing so much work, I wonder when the guys need to get rotated, they've been grinding the Russians very hard for months.

Also for the experts, what missile/.. system is that at 3:15?

Edited September 28, 2023 by Kraft

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-prof-g-show-with-scott-galloway/id1498802610?i=1000629486344

As badly as the Russian strategy is failing militarily it is sort of succeeding politically. Mostly because the politicians and diplomats don't know anything are to lazy to learn. This entire podcast is one long diatribe of defeatism from Ian Bremmer. As bad as I hate to say this, Ukraine needs to run more risks, and take more casualties to break the land bridge this year to keep this whole thing on the rails. They shouldn't have to do that, we should have gotten them much more stuff, much more quickly. But this really seems to be where the politics is at.

[Kinophile]

5 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Lavrov talking about stalemate and being "ready for talks." Makes me think there's something to the breakthrough rumors.

Nah, he's always 'ready for talks'. It's just that what he wants the Ukrainians to 'talk' about is how specifically they will surrender their sovereignty, way of life and their women.

Just more garbage vomited out by an amoral human weasel.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Kinophile

[akd]

More thorough DPICM treatment for a Russian position:

 

[Beleg85]

15 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Nah, he's always 'ready for talks'. It's just that what he wants the Ukrainians to 'talk' about is how specifically they will surrender their sovereignty, way of life and their women.

Just more garbage vomited out by an amoral human weasel.

Yes, Kremlin signals similar readiness to "talks" for half a year at least, in its own language. Ongoing visit of Stoltenberg, French and British MoD's can be not coincidental in this context, though; they come in numbers to Kyiv so issue is probably important. But it is probably more to be connected to ATACM's and military plans for autumn/winter rather than probe of eventual Ukrainian willingness to negotaiate anything, as some  analysts suggest.

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Beleg85

[A Canadian Cat]

4 hours ago, akd said:

A thousand lulz:

 

"does not have any concerns regarding territorial claims from the Russian Federation"

See, the destruction of large amounts of Russian army equipment and the death of thousands of their soldiers has a clear benefit to the world: Some countries are no loner concerned about Putin's threats of attack.

[Kinophile]

There's a note in yesterday's ISW report, about a UKR attack on the Robtyne-Verbove at least 4 companies, preceded by a massive artillery barrage. I had also noticed reports of this on twitter. There were also reports of a heavy drone wave leading the advance, pinning the RUS in place as the mech inf moved up, then pushing out as the infantry took hold. 

I dont know if the assault pushed much further on (doubt it) after the initial success, and it does appear they were fully successful.

It sounds like one of the larger set-piece assaults in a while, with drones organic to the assault plan and critical for success, not just added as a useful afterthought.

As I understand it the RUS line was fully manned but overwhelmed by artillery, then drones then IFV fires then infantry in a straight up frontal attack.

This implies the ZSU was able to mass, deploy (including clear lanes through minefields), assault and hold without RUS fires impeding any one stage. The scale of the attack implies a very wide blind spot in the RUS tactical ISR, even if only for a while. That's quite a good achievement and suggests we'll see more from this brigade (unfortunately I lost the tweet that has it, perhaps someone knows?).

I'm particularly interested in how they achieved local Drone supremacy.

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Kinophile

[NamEndedAllen]

6 hours ago, Kinophile said:

I think he copied @NamEndedAllen's style to appear "older". Sorry, NEA,  not meaning to be rude to you. Always good posts, unlike this former Leading Intellect. 

Hey! I earned my older!! Took a very long time!

But thanks. Really.

[cesmonkey]

24 minutes ago, akd said:

More thorough DPICM treatment for a Russian position:

 

I believe the below show an earlier portion of that video where the Russian soldiers are seen near their trench hole.
Seems to me, they were probably safely underground when this cluster munitions landed.
https://t.me/operativnoZSU/116670

[FancyCat]

 

Quote

1/ I don't really get why there are so many articles on FPV-Drones vs. AFVs while mines only get mentioned in passing

2/ An obvious lesson from this war is that large quantities of older AT and AP mines can still be very effective at slowing an advance and reducing a larger adversary’s advantages. Remote-delivered mines have also proven to be effective in both offensive and defensive situations.

 

 

[Kinophile]

45 minutes ago, akd said:

More thorough DPICM treatment for a Russian position:

 

At 0:14 you can see the munitions falling through frame before detonation

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

We have talked about it PLENTY here. To the point of arguing about how much combat engineering to add to the next game in various ways. Mines are just a stupidly hard problem at the fundamental physics level, and the TONS of money thrown at at least parts of the problem since 2003 have produced very little except V shaped hulls.  Still hoping the renewed impetus of the war will finally result in a fundamental breakthrough, it jus has NOT happened yet. Indeed the Ukrainians have resorted to the extremely old fashioned method of the men crawling around in the dirt with a probe and a metal detector. I honestly think the biggest reason that works is that the Russians are unwilling to reveal their firing positions to shoot at such spread out targets.

[Haiduk]

On 9/27/2023 at 10:51 PM, Jr Buck Private said:

13,000 Ukrainians massing for a crossing of the Dnipro? 

That supposedly is what Rybar reported.   Did anybody else hear of anything like that?  Not sure if I believe it but that sure would be an attention getter.   Maybe I've watched A Bridge Too Far's river assault at Nijmegan too many times, but I keep wondering what the end game is for what's been happening across from Kherson.  You'd figure the Russians have pulled out some forces there to shore up their lines up north.

Russians already three days conduct heavy bombardments of Kherson and right bank of Dnipro south and north of the city. Each day about 25 guided bombs not counting artillery and MLRS. Either our General Staff made some false demonstration or misinformation to distract part of Russians airstrikes from Zaporizhzhia oblast, or something really prepare itself

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, akd said:

Really stresses the tactical importance of root cellars in these small settlements.

 I was always annoyed by the lack of cellears in CM, when your infantry hides in the house and artillery begins own barrage. Though, this in some extent compensated by weak effect of HE on houses.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, Kraft said:

3rd AB doing so much work, I wonder when the guys need to get rotated, they've been grinding the Russians very hard for months.

They really do hard work, but their "PR service" is on high level too. Brigade, which creates cool picture is more popular, more known, it risies more money for short time and have more potential volunteer recruits. Each brigade can make such footage, but onlly small number do this with such quality. And all they are former volunteer units, having roots in 2014. 

About rotations. If brigade is on frontline it's not means all staff 24/7 in the battle. Their units also have own micro-roattions. Today company A holds a trenche, company B prepares to assault in battalion rear, company C have a rest in brigade rear. Since some time they are change each other. Russians do the same. So, if you hear that in some sector UKR brigade X agaist Russian brigade Z, it's not means whole brigades fight each other in full composition.   

Edited September 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Evacuation bus of volunteer medical unit "Hospitaliers". Usual passenger bus redone in medical, equipped for donations. It carries wounded from stabilization points in frontline rear to hospitals, usually it's a Dnipro city.

[Lethaface]

On 9/27/2023 at 10:30 PM, Beleg85 said:

Therefore, killing as many soldiers as it can be done may not be sufficent to knock them off, even if we reach half a milion or so. Problem is that our toolbox is so limited here, compared to Putin's...

I agree, but I shouldn't have to. The Wests 'toolbox' is still much 'better' relatively (better institutions for everyone, less poverty, less brutality, etc), but somehow we have lost part of our marketing/PR advantage; mostly because of our own design. 
We don't need Putin's toolbox, or rather what would make us different from Putin & co if we utilized the same type?

[billbindc]

19 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Indeed.  And as such then we should presume the timing is not accidental and is, instead, designed to effect a specific outcome.  The obvious reason to push the "Ukraine did it" is to increase political representation by the various groups that oppose supporting Ukraine ranging from pro-Russians to those simply angry about being denied access to cheap Russian gas.  I'm not well informed about what critical elections in Europe are in the near future, but it is probable that one or more are specifically being targeted.

Assuming this is an FSB/GRU operation.

Steve

Germany, AfD, etc.

[Lethaface]

On 9/27/2023 at 10:33 PM, Anon052 said:

I read the newsarticle Seedorf posted that somehow claimed new kind of evidence surfaced but everything in there was identical to the investigative report that was published in germany more in depth roughly a  month ago and was discussed here too. The german investigative report was very onesided and ignored a lot of evidence  that pointed in russian direction and it failed to plausibly establish how the Andromeda could do the northsteam sabotage.  The only  new "fact" in the dutch article was that traces of the explosive HMX was found at the site of sabotage. I am no forensic expert but there are different reasons I would be highly sceptical of this fact. But even if true. HMX would be one  of the most probable explosives that one would use for such a bombing by diver. And if the Andromeda was a false Flag, then it would be very easy for the perpetrator to plant the same kind of explosive that was used in the bombings.

You say the complexity of the operation was overestimated. Do you have any idea what kind of complexity is needed to do this kind of operation? I work in UXO,UXB, ERB disposal in the northsea, baltic sea and rivers. I work on specialised ships and with divers (most of them  with navy background) that do exactly this kind of work that would be needed for the northstream sabotage.

The complexity of this operation is a LOT more than just being able to do the dive. The equipment needed just to do the simple dive ignoring all of the  other specialised equipment: on the ships I work on this equipment is located in  containers that are half as big as the Andromeda. All those gastanks alone do take a lot of room. You need a lot more of those for a deep sea diving suit/ hard-hat than you would for a simple diving suit.

The first problem the divers  had to overcome is to find the pipelines and then the right locations for the bombing. This alone is a very big problem. To locate those you need a depth sonar or a submersible. Good luck instaling those on the Andromeda.  In those depths it is pitch black. Those divers have to work completely blind. They are trained to do so but they still need instruction  by those one the ship  with exactly this kind of equipment that the Andromeda lacks. And on top of that they did this on the same day at  three different locations. And they did the dive on a very instable plattform which means high chance of death.

Then there is the question of  the explosives. The theory that was presented in the investigative report was that only a small amount was used.  There exist seismic profiles of those explosions  and those hint  at  a  bigger amount of explosives used. It is not conclusive evidence but it points in another direction.

Not one of the divers I work with thinks its realistically possible to do the northstream sabotage from the  Andromeda in a short amount of time.

There is more  I could write but it is already late here I have to work very early tomorrow.

One thing I have to say. The reporting on northsteam really does remind me on the reporting in german media about MH17 after it happend. The media tried to be "neutral" but it was mostly pointing in ukrainian direction and sometimes it was just reciting russian propaganda. Even after Bellingcat could show exactly what BUK was used by which unit german media ignored this evidence. It was only after the dutch reports with conclusive evidence were published that the reporting did change.

 

Thanks for your reply and detailing of the specifics with regards to the equipment. With regards to my statement that the complexity was overstated I referred to the statements that only US Navy Seals and equivalent capable organizations could organize such an operation. And that a nation state with the capabilities of Ukraine couldn't achieve such a feat. 
The fact that you work in exactly this type of field sort of proves the point I made (derived from the info from the video; I'm no diver).

It is unfortunate that the documentary video is mostly in Dutch, like I said there is a diver/instructor interviewed who explains that it is his dayjob teaching dives at that depth and said it is a complicated operation but not overcomplicated; certainly doable for experienced divers with the appropriate gear.
Neither does the documentary in my opinion show bias 'against' Ukraine imo, they just point out what information is available and even explained how some people don't believe it could be only the andromeda (I guess concluding that is a viable theory was an extrapolation on my side, which could be wrong according to the specifications/expertise you post). Or that the source could be a 'walk in' providing / planting disinformation.
Others in the video believed the Andromeda certainly played a key role in it. Like I said, it leaves the conclusion open.

It seems the majority here is more convinced that the Andromeda stuff must be a false flag than I am, but that's fine. It still is information, I didn't hear these details before. I guess the makers of the documentary worked together with the German source you mentioned. 

Ok, back to the actual situation.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Lethaface

[kluge]

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

The scale of the attack implies a very wide blind spot in the RUS tactical ISR, even if only for a while. That's quite a good achievement and suggests we'll see more from this brigade (unfortunately I lost the tweet that has it, perhaps someone knows?).

I'm particularly interested in how they achieved local Drone supremacy.

The breach of the main defensive line and subsequent battles have mostly all been located in a narrow, shallow valley. The geography limits the exposure of Ukranian forces at the bottom of the valley to direct fire and observation. Conveniently there's also a well built set of fortifications that provides excellent cover for infantry.

I suspect that Ukraine is able to freely operate drones in that area because the valley provides a degree of protection from jamming, so long as the drones fly low enough (< 50-100 ft) such that they are out of the LOS of various EW systems. An EW system covering that valley would need to be within 1km of Ukranian positions and wouldn't last terribly long.

 

[Lethaface]

On 9/27/2023 at 11:39 PM, billbindc said:

Someone is clearly leaking a particular version of events to media and only some media in the usual country(s) is picking it up. Why? Because that scenario looks quite a bit like a Russian disinformation operation. 

Lol actually knowing what was in 'some media' would be a good thing before making conclusions about it, but I digress.