How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

Russian telegrammer Rybar on the explosion at the customs warehouse at the Tashkent, Uzbekistan airport:
https://t.me/rybar/52447
 

Quote

The current owner is the president's eldest son-in-law, Otabek Umarov . According to rumors, Inter Logistics is a joint Russian-Uzbek venture. Against the backdrop of Western attempts to isolate Russia and eliminate all ties between Central Asia and the Russian Federation, it suggests that what happened was hardly accidental.

The tasks performed in warehouses can be quite specific, and putting the enterprise out of commission in this situation is beneficial to interests with an anti-Russian position. And whether it was sabotage or “failure to comply with fire safety requirements” is not so important. The result is already there.

 

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  Not too difficult to spot, eh?  He has been banned again because that's how bans work.

Steve

Aww, crazy guy pet wants to be loved so bad he tried to come back.  And Steve put him down again?

You know, my problem with the old guys position - beyond being a pretty flimsy cover for “the opposite of whatever the other guy is doing” - is that he cries for a “plan”, “we are just throwing money away”, oh, and “we should think of the Ukrainians and end this war” (which is really upside down).  However, being a very stable genius, he fails to outline an actual counter plan.

I mean what is the alternate strategy for the US here?  Withdraw from the world and let other powers invade whomever they want?  How long do they think US supremacy will last as Russia (and China) grab up the rest of the planet?  The “plan” is to draw back and stop spending money and effort?  Sue for peace with Russia from a weak position? Yet somehow the US will retain its global power position?  There is a giant logic hole in that thinking.

Aw well, the world keeps spinning on.  

[poesel]

Wrt to Taurus & ATACMS:

[Ultradave]

15 hours ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I don’t believe “resolved” is the best term though, since the House will not accept this Senate measure.

Good point. Resolved in the Senate negotiations anyway. There is broad support for Ukraine in the Senate, and I don't think that's going to change, even to placate the House crazies and get something passed.

Dave

[Offshoot]

A new post by Mick Ryan, who is visiting Ukraine again. He is there to research "the institutional elements of the Ukrainian Armed Forces - those strategic capabilities that enable a military to fight a war, not just battles and campaigns" - https://mickryan.substack.com/p/exploring-the-ukrainian-way-of-war

[Joe982]

3 hours ago, cesmonkey said:

Russian telegrammer Rybar on the explosion at the customs warehouse at the Tashkent, Uzbekistan airport:

I always thought Uzbekistan was a place made up by comedians.

 

.

 

[Kinophile]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yup.  Not too difficult to spot, eh?  He has been banned again because that's how bans work.

Steve

Really? That was an excessive amount of acting effort to reengage with a forum hostile to his nonsense. I guess dummies keep dummying on.. 

Funnily, for some reason the "outside my wheelhouse"  comment rang a bell ref KK. 

Oh and I think he copied @NamEndedAllen's style to appear "older". Sorry, NEA,  not meaning to be rude to you. Always good posts, unlike this former Leading Intellect. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

Wrt to Taurus & ATACMS:

Technically,  he doesn't - in the film at least. The Battle at the gates happens outside the gates, commonly understood as the "border" for want of a better word. 

Hello,  I'm your self-nominated Pedant Of The Day. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

6 hours ago, Butschi said:

Waiting for ATACMS is probably one thing. The other may be a legal issue. Apparently German technicians would have to be send to Ukraine, not for maintaining (alone) but for actually programming the coordinates. (Don't know why it of that is actually true) this is somehow different than with e.g. storm shadows.

That would indeed make Germany a more or less direct participant in the war. Which (apart from all the the other ramifications) is a thing Scholz can't decide alone.

I do love me some good German beaurocratic legalize ostentatiously preventing leaders from politically committing to action on a politically "sensitive"  subject. 

I say this as a huge fan of living in Germany. Loved the place, people, food etc. But holy crap do the German political class know how to politically weaponize their beaurocrats to a granular degree. Every country does it of course but man, Scholz does it in perfekter Vollendung. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Kinophile

[Letter from Prague]

Lavrov talking about stalemate and being "ready for talks." Makes me think there's something to the breakthrough rumors.

[Kinophile]

On 9/27/2023 at 8:44 AM, The_Capt said:

  They will fight but surviving to get paid is also on the agenda.  Once the pay stops, the will to fight stops.  

But doesn't he have that covered,  with the large death payouts?

But he's smart,  they don't pay every death (too expensive) but also they do pay just  enough people do that the neighbors see a few others get large sums,  like winning a lottery, which is enticing.

So they take a gamble, for their families at least. What other fast routes to enrichment is there? And off they go. 

 

 

[Kinophile]

On 9/27/2023 at 9:22 AM, Kraft said:

Interesting little guy riding the bomb into a Russian BMP.

Holy ****,  UKR humour alone makes this war worth fighting. We cant lose this people. 

[The_Capt]

12 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

But doesn't he have that covered,  with the large death payouts?

But he's smart,  they don't pay every death (too expensive) but also they do pay just  enough people do that the neighbors see a few others get large sums,  like winning a lottery, which is enticing.

So they take a gamble, for their families at least. What other fast routes to enrichment is there? And off they go. 

 

 

It will go some distance.  Most young man don't believe it will be them - "the poor other guy" fallacy.  Of course if the pay stops it includes death payouts.  Not sure what the tipping point is but if only 1 in 10 families is getting paid out I can see enthusiasm fading.

The bigger one for young guys is disability.  Getting legs blown off and pooping in a bag for the rest of your life is hard to put a dollar value on.  See enough guys like that on street corners and you are going to have problems with recruiting.  Not sure what long term disability looks like in Russia but it would also be coming under strain.  

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I mean what is the alternate strategy for the US here?  Withdraw from the world and let other powers invade whomever they want?  How long do they think US supremacy will last as Russia (and China) grab up the rest of the planet?  The “plan” is to draw back and stop spending money and effort?  Sue for peace with Russia from a weak position? Yet somehow the US will retain its global power position?  There is a giant logic hole in that thinking.

Aw well, the world keeps spinning on.  

I have seen three poorly thought out, vague concepts:

1. Not our problem. Doesn’t affect us so why should we care? This is the one that most exposes the fact that not all opinions have value and not all people should be allowed to vote. This position has no value at all.

2. Bad investment.  Nothing really wrong with the cause, but we can’t afford to be the word’s policeman and therefore we should let nature take its course. It amounts to the same as the first one, but pretends to be thoughtful. Of course there is no thought about the cost of inaction because that requires an understanding of the world the person most likely lacks.

3. We should stop pussyfooting around and actively put an end to this war. This is further split into the camp that favors risking WW3 and the Neville Chamberlain approach of selling out Ukrainian in the hope that Russia will be satisfied. Neither one can articulate a coherent way to achieve stated goals so, even though polar opposite, they amount to the same thing.

There are those who are not satisfied with being wrong in one way, so they combine 2 or 3 unstable positions into one. The 1945 article author combined 2 and 3, for instance.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2023-09-27/eucom-cavoli-ukraine-drones-11510485.html

“One of the biggest results (a simple drone) is it gives people a feeling of insecurity on the other side,” Cavoli said. “It’s not just that you got hit with the drone, it’s that you kind of didn’t hear it coming. And every time you hear a buzzing sound in the air, it fills you with dread.”

The result is “a paralytic effect” on the adversary, he said.

 

The top U.S. officer in NATO, reassuring to see that he is paying attention. Says there are huge lessons learned about EW as well, but declines to be specific.

[Harmon Rabb]

NATO’s secretary-general meets with Zelenskyy to discuss battlefield and ammunition needs in Ukraine (AP)

Quote

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss the status of the war and needs of troops on Thursday, the day after Russia accused Ukraine’s Western allies of helping plan and conduct last week’s missile strike on the Black Sea Fleet’s headquarters on the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

Zelenskyy said that Stoltenberg agreed to make efforts to get NATO members to help provide additional air defense systems to protect Ukraine’s power plants and energy infrastructure that were badly damaged in relentless and deadly attacks by Russia last winter. He also reminded the secretary-general of the persistent attacks that often strike civilian areas, including 40 drone attacks overnight.

“In the face of such intense attacks against Ukrainians, against our cities, our ports, which are crucial for global food security, we need a corresponding intensity of pressure on Russia and a strengthening of our air defense,” Zelenskyy said. “The world must see how Russia is losing dearly so that our shared values ultimately prevail.”

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[akd]

A thousand lulz:

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Looks like the Russian military took a page out of Otto Skorzeny's Operation Greif, by changing into Ukrainian uniforms to cause confusion.  

Edited September 28, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[The_Capt]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I have seen three poorly thought out, vague concepts:

1. Not our problem. Doesn’t affect us so why should we care? This is the one that most exposes the fact that not all opinions have value and not all people should be allowed to vote. This position has no value at all.

2. Bad investment.  Nothing really wrong with the cause, but we can’t afford to be the word’s policeman and therefore we should let nature take its course. It amounts to the same as the first one, but pretends to be thoughtful. Of course there is no thought about the cost of inaction because that requires an understanding of the world the person most likely lacks.

3. We should stop pussyfooting around and actively put an end to this war. This is further split into the camp that favors risking WW3 and the Neville Chamberlain approach of selling out Ukrainian in the hope that Russia will be satisfied. Neither one can articulate a coherent way to achieve stated goals so, even though polar opposite, they amount to the same thing.

There are those who are not satisfied with being wrong in one way, so they combine 2 or 3 unstable positions into one. The 1945 article author combined 2 and 3, for instance.

Steve

These are so politically weaselly.  They are so badly put that they create an unassailable position.  If Russia runs over the border tomorrow and peace breaks out, they can still argue #1 and #2 during reconstruction or any follow on that is not perfect (which they never are).  If things stay bad, they can argue #3 - "we told you to do WW3, weak!"

These are really stating risks as facts and building positions around them.  Not a single solution other than - "ok, so what is the other political side doing?  Ok, we support the opposite."  The Biden administration could cure cancer and some of these people would march in the streets to defend medical jobs.  

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The Biden administration could cure cancer and some of these people would march in the streets to defend medical jobs.  

Winner!

[Letter from Prague]

17 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Looks like the Russian military took a page out of Otto Skorzeny's Operation Greif, by changing into Ukrainian uniforms to cause confusion.  

We've seen them do literally from day one.

[kimbosbread]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

The Biden administration could cure cancer and some of these people would march in the streets to defend medical jobs.  

That’s kind of the plot of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy, though the roles are reversed in that the pyschiatric profession is trying to prevent everyone from having meaning in their life!

[Kraft]

22 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Looks like the Russian military took a page out of Otto Skorzeny's Operation Greif, by changing into Ukrainian uniforms to cause confusion.  

Keep in mind spread of disinformation - these are UA soldiers.

Non-cropped video which appeared earlier in Russian TGs is watermarked in the top right corner, several of these videos are cropped to avoid it - which is why the FOV is so low.

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Kraft

[Harmon Rabb]

48 minutes ago, Kraft said:

Keep in mind disinformation, these are UA soldiers.

Non-cropped video, appeared earlier in Russian TGs. Its watermarked in the top right corner, several of these videos are cropped in to avoid it - which is why the FOV is so low.

That's a shame if true. I thought it was legit because it was posted by an official Ukrainian MoD Twitter account.

I guess I have to keep in mind that the Ukrainian MoD also uses propaganda.

Edit: Ukrainian MoD deleted the Tweet. Looks like it was just a mistake on their part. We all make them.

Edited September 28, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[cesmonkey]