How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

1 minute ago, Teufel said:

…main news is that around 24-25 August, the ZSU has entered Novoprokopivka.

It was some panic of Ru milblogger. UKR just approached to this village from the east. 

[Haiduk]

Russian milblogger writes, Ukraine uses guided bombs JDAM of 230 and 960 kg of weight on Zaporizhzhia front. Our jets drop them from 40-75 km of range

Crater of JDAM hit, likely 230 kg (500 lb)

So, on the south we also have airstrike support, not only with low-effective rocket tossing salvos from Su-25 and choppers, but something more heavy and precise, but looks like we hadn't enough quantity of JDAMs to more intensive strikes 

Edited August 27, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Russian TG Fighterbomber confirmed attack on Kursk airfield, but wrote nothing about result of this attack. Instead he described type of drones, used by Ukraine. These were presumably Australian SYPAQ, made with pressed waxed cardboard and equipped with electrical engines. He says this made these drones almost invisible for radars on the ranges, which allow to react timely. Each drone can carry 4-5 kh of HE. Fighterbomber says, these drones were launched as "swarm", but not each had warhead (I suppose, not all warheads detonated - UKR source claimed about 16 launched drones, Russian sources wrote about 13 explosions). He also supposes, if drones had electrical engines, they couldn't be launched from Ukrianian territory to reach Kursk. In Wiki pointed that range of SYPAQ can be 40-120 km depending on load. Closest point is Sumy oblast - 101 km from the border to airfield

First time about SYPAQ drones receiveing became knowingly at the end of May 2023

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

DPICM on "Surovkin line" trench

 

[Letter from Prague]

Wait wasn't there an Ukrainian video promising massive drone strikes everywhere on 28th of August? I'm going to assume it was a psyop, but maybe we'll see something funny tomorrow.

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Wait wasn't there an Ukrainian video promising massive drone strikes everywhere on 28th of August?

On 24th - Independence Day. Yes, PsyOps )

[Haiduk]

Russian milblogger about terrible situation on Kherson direction with timely artilelry support. 

Now i Russian media is a big scandal with situation in 205th motor-rifle brigade, commander of which wasted almost whole recon battalion of own brigade, landing them on islands, without fire support, food and water. Here is about artillery support

The reason - main and general is one. Complete absence of fire and artillery support. All coordinates of targets, revealing by soldiers in real-time, are not transmitted further chief of recon [so, this brigade has tough centralized fire control - all coordinates go to brigade HQ, then its distribute to artillery HQ and to the gun units. But maybe brigade's arty hadn't enough ammo too, so chief of recon considers all reported targets as minor]. For this soldiers pay with own lives. This is a "scourge" of all direction. The same situation on dachas and under the bridge (and all this already on left bank of Dnepr) 

 

[Haiduk]

Aftermath of yesterday ammo dump detonation near Tokmak.

[Haiduk]

While many discussing how to restore "Grain deal", UKR and neighbours have found solution

It's similar to this %)

 

[Vet 0369]

23 hours ago, The_Capt said:

That statement alone sends shiver up the spine.  And I know you damn well mean it, you have every right to…but, shivers.

It doesn’t have to be the “post WWII occupations” methods of punishment, e.g. women’s shaved heads and firing squads for the men. I would expect, even with the “calls for blood vengeance,” trials for the accused followed by imprisonment and eventual banishment to Russia with no opportunity to return to Crimea or Ukraine. That will be extraordinarily difficult due to the Russian war crimes, but when it comes down to the “brass tacks,” that will be Ukraine’s decision to make, and no one else’s.

[Battlefront.com]

On 8/26/2023 at 9:19 AM, The_Capt said:

You are on record as stating it is “unlikely”.  Let’s see where it lands.

I am sure everybody in this thread will be happy to watch how Ukraine reintegrates Crimea because that would mean they are in Crimea

I want to be very clear about what I'm "on the record" for predicting:

1.  Ukraine will only retake Crimea if Russia has a systemic strategic collapse of its military.

2.  The only reasonable way Russia's military will collapse at the strategic level is if the Russian state itself collapses, perhaps including a civil war.

3.  Those Russians in Crimea who know they have a target on their forehead will most likely take the easy way out and go to Russia.  It will be extremely easy to expel Russian occupiers who arrived after 2014 because they are inherently foreign.  The occupation leadership will mostly bugger out, with only a few stupid enough to stay (this has been seen in places like Kherson).  Because these traitors have Russian passports and, probably, cash stashed away they will have an easy way to exit.  Far easier than Nazis fleeing to Argentina!

4.  Because the only way this will happen is because Russia has collapsed, for the near term Russia will not be able to focus its attention on undermining/opposing Ukrainian reintegration.  Just like in the early 1990s Russia will have to pick and choose what it does very carefully, and my assumptions are that it will have too much to deal with and more critical things to focus on (especially in a Russian civil war scenario).

5.  Ukraine's administration of the populace will matter significantly in terms of how difficult it is to reestablish law and order and societal harmony.  Best realistic case is it will be horribly difficult and will, best case, take 2-3 generations for the lingering pro-Russian sentiment to no longer be a significant factor in daily life.  However, it will likely never go away (look at eastern Germany for lesson to learn).

6.  All of the above covers only the first 5-10 years or reintegration.  What comes after will be directly related to how well this period goes Crimeans, Ukrainians in general, and Russia as well.

Steve

[TheVulture]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Russian TG Fighterbomber confirmed attack on Kursk airfield, but wrote nothing about result of this attack. Instead he described type of drones, used by Ukraine. These were presumably Australian SYPAQ, made with pressed waxed cardboard and equipped with electrical engines. He says this made these drones almost invisible for radars on the ranges, which allow to react timely. Each drone can carry 4-5 kh of HE. Fighterbomber says, these drones were launched as "swarm", but not each had warhead (I suppose, not all warheads detonated - UKR source claimed about 16 launched drones, Russian sources wrote about 13 explosions). He also supposes, if drones had electrical engines, they couldn't be launched from Ukrianian territory to reach Kursk. In Wiki pointed that range of SYPAQ can be 40-120 km depending on load. Closest point is Sumy oblast - 101 km from the border to airfield

First time about SYPAQ drones receiveing became knowingly at the end of May 2023

 

Looks like a 10-year old's project to build a plane out of carboard boxes at home. A very Australian approach to building a stealth drone. Got to love the cheap and cheerful approach that

can be churned out in huge numbers for pennies.

[dan/california]

8 minutes ago, Vet 0369 said:

It doesn’t have to be the “post WWII occupations” methods of punishment, e.g. women’s shaved heads and firing squads for the men. I would expect, even with the “calls for blood vengeance,” trials for the accused followed by imprisonment and eventual banishment to Russia with no opportunity to return to Crimea or Ukraine. That will be extraordinarily difficult due to the Russian war crimes, but when it comes down to the “brass tacks,” that will be Ukraine’s decision to make, and no one else’s.

 

Quote

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Épuration_légale

This wikipedia article about what happened in France is worth your time. 

[Vet 0369]

7 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

Russian investigators conclude after "genetic testing" that both Prigozjin and Utkin were on the crashed plane.

Of course they did. I would expect nothing less of the extremely professional and transparent Russian “investigations.”

[Haiduk]

New leader of PMC Wagner - Anton Yelizarov ("Lotos"). Field commander. He passed Syria, Libya, Central African Republic. Played important role during battles for Soledar and Bakhmut

Edited August 27, 2023 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

 

[Haiduk]

Interesting thread about defense fortifications around Novoprokopivka, Solodka Balka, Verbove and possible decisions how to breach them

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by Haiduk

[Teufel]

This adds nothing but confusion, will post for reference anyway, in case there is some sense of this later.

Claimed to be Tokmak, could be anywhere, and story behind could be anything really. If anybody has plausible story to this, please do share.

 

Edited August 27, 2023 by Teufel

[Eddy]

19 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Interesting thread about defense fortifications around Novoprokopivka, Solodka Balka, Verbove and possible decisions how to breach them

 

Good read.

Thread also can be found here => Thread by @emilkastehelmi on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App .

[Teufel]

No location given in video descriptions but 72nd made name for itself getting in trouble with Wagners around Bakhmut. Nothing spectacular, trench cleaning.

Bit more action, two birds with one rock (if actually from the same fight).

Edited August 27, 2023 by Teufel

[chris talpas]

Perun brings his usual wit  and insightful analysis to this week’s big story about the downing of Prig’s plane.  Examines the impact of the loss of 3 senior members on the organization.  Concludes not much impact for Ukraine and NATO.  Comments on who benefits and message it sends as well as who remains standing for now: Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov.

 

[Haiduk]

UKR TG:

Now, I think, we can make a statement, that a fight for Novoprokopivka has begun. We overran pidors from several positions in the village. Also were taken sevaral VOPs (platoon strongpoints) on the village outskirt 

Edited August 27, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, chris talpas said:

Perun brings his usual wit  and insightful analysis to this week’s big story about the downing of Prig’s plane.  Examines the impact of the loss of 3 senior members on the organization.  Concludes not much impact for Ukraine and NATO.  Comments on who benefits and message it sends as well as who remains standing for now: Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov.

 

Poor Priggy - too crazy for Coup Town, too much coup in him for Crazy Town.  Like a falling star he fell to earth after shining ever so brightly, and having a wing blown off.  My sense is that although popular in some circles, I don't think he is going to become the martyr for a movement.  Unless said movement is already well on its way and simply wants to slap his mug on the T-shirts.

Keep aiming for the bushes Priggy, and say hi to Lucifer for us all.

Edited August 27, 2023 by The_Capt

[Degsy]

A link to Mark Galeotti's latest podcast, on the death of Prigozhin. He starts, "today I wanted to talk about agriculture in the Tver region, and what must be the expectation of a truly bumper crop, given the amount of bull**** being spread around following the crash of Evgenii Prigozhin's jet..."

In Moscows Shadows-112-Goodbye Prigozhin

 

[Seedorf81]

Quote

 

8 hours ago, poesel said:

Very well put.

One thing to add: one reason why Germany and Japan were treated so well by the allies was that they were needed vs Russia and/or China. Without that, I guess the willingness to forgive would have been a bit less.

The willingness of Ukraine to forgive Russia or Russians will pay out in good PR in the West, which translates to money or things like EU membership.
Ukraine has managed to stay the 'good guy' in a horrible war. When the war ends, it needs to stay that for its own future.
That will be a very hard thing to do - not to pay back what the bastards have done to you. But the West is not in this war, we are only observing. And the West will judge Ukraine by its own standards, which are not adjusted by having been into that war.

Winning the war is only halfway to peace.

Thank you for the kind words and the addition.

Like with so many subjects, things are much more complicated than the simple explanation/description I used in my "ruthless or forgiving"-post. There's more to it. After ww2 ended, hardly anyone would, or could, really believe that the committed atrocities during the war could be as bad as they were. No smartphones, no Youtube, no Twitter in those days. So maybe it was easier to forget and forgive in those days.

My personal feelings do not always correspond with my rational and "factual" observations. I write about "forgiving", but I do struggle with that concept. Because although I consciously understand that refraining from revenge, and trying to empathize with "wrong-doing" people really will - how counter-intuitive it may sound - improve things in the long run, my gut-feelings struggle to accept that.

I feel that if I were in power, and I could catch people like Putin and Prigozhin and Utkin alive, or the ones that were responsible for the abduction of the Ukranian kids that were taken to Russia, or the soldiers that tortured and killed ordinary people just for fun, etc, that I would summary execute them. No questions asked.

Rabid Russian-supporting politicians? Bullet in the back of the head, no sorrow, no guilt. And no need for trials or laywers. No doubt, no hesitation. That is how I feel. I'm beginning to look like idiots as Stalin, Hitler and Saddam!

And then the difficulty really starts.. The Crimean-conundrum starts. Because, where do I draw the line? Traitors? Sure, they can be shot on site. But what about people who had a shop or business and supplied the Russian Army? Should they be shot? Imprisoned? Flogged?

And what about Ukrainian people who "only" had a Russian flag out in front of their house? Not because they liked the Russians, but because they were scared. What to do with those? What about the people who didn't support Ukraine, but didn't support Russia either? Do we consider them cowards?

I don't know. And the Ukrainians probably don't know. But I hope they are more prone to understanding, then to get even.

Maybe my peace-loving posts do not make it very clear, but I admire the Ukrainians. They are without a doubt on the moral high ground, so far. They care about their own soldiers and civilians, and they sometimes even care about the Russian soldiers(!!!). They can't get air-superiority, and they cannot fight on even terms, because they cannot (the West would not like that) go berserk on Russian territory where a lot could be gained ( Only one brigade on the loose on Russian soil, imagine that!), and that must feel like being in a fist-fight with one hand tied behind your back.

I really hope this war ends before the climate-change will end it.