How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[cesmonkey]

50 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Oleksiy Danylov, Secreter of National Security Council claims Russian S-400 in Crimea was hit by new UKR missile, have been developing since 2020. He told no any details. I think this can be Neptun, upgraded for ground targets attack. But maybe and some new...

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/26/7417218/

There was another article from yesterday on this:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/08/25/to-blow-up-russias-s-400-battery-in-crimea-ukraine-tweaked-its-cruiser-sinking-neptune-missile/?sh=5a4b39d57d3d

[Bulletpoint]

25 minutes ago, Grossman said:

Wagner mercenaries must swear allegiance to Putin.  Echoes of Hitler

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66627957

Not allegience to Putin personally, but to the Russian state.

Edited August 26, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[akd]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

As soon as that first PGM goes off, they were PGMs or crazy good shooting, the infantry just start running. It would seem the vatniks have learned the signature for when the Ukrainians are serious about taking a particular spot, and just bug out when they see it. It didn't seem to do this lot much good. I don't think most of them had time to regret their life choices properly.

Edit: Terrible news about the pilots, The price Ukraine pays for the West being slow and timid just keeps going up.

Looks like Excalibur.

[billbindc]

1 hour ago, poesel said:

There were some Russians ships with turned off transponders in that region just prior to the explosions. They could have placed the explosives or try to remove them. We don't know.

Pro (Russia is the culprit): they tried to evade the fines for not delivering gas by force majeure

Contra: why would they destroy a big source of income?

Yes, but I don't mean they couldn't do it. I meant that they couldn't do it without being caught afterwards. Their track record hasn't been that good lately.

Quite the contrary. The documentary displays the facts as far as they are known to the public and refrains from presenting a conclusion. But it does list the options. That includes those that most of us probably dislike.

It could go either way and we don't know definitively yet but elements in the German government are clearly pushing the idea that the Russians didn't stop an attack by amateurs with their professionals on site and didn't do the pig obvious thing (go public) that would have stopped the attack in its tracks. Those are extraordinary claims that will require extraordinary proofs...not a recitation of maybes that have all the hallmarks of a false flag operation or look like over worked attempts to explain away the much simpler realities. That's not directed personally at you, to be clear, but at the faction in the German government that seems dead set on complicating Berlin's support for Kyiv. I'm not someone who denigrates German efforts on Ukraine generally but in this case it very much looks like German intelligence that has gotten pretty much everything wrong for a long time is going all in on the bit.

[billbindc]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

As a reminder, the only scenario I see where Ukraine takes back Crimea and DLPR any time soon is if Russia suffers a total systemic militarily collapse.  For that to happen it probably requires Russia to have devolved into some form of civil war.  Therefore, it is a pretty good bet that under those circumstances Russia will be unable to interfere in Ukraine's affairs as it did in 2014-2023 simply because it is too weak and distracted to do so.  This doesn't make Ukraine's efforts to govern and rebuild DLPR and Crimea a piece of cake by any stretch as the challenges there are significant even without an insurgency.

Steve

To this point, the milieu in which Ukraine takes over would be in the wake of decisive Russian defeats that will be more than just military. The idea of Russkiy Mir will have been punctured definitively. Russia itself will be in a pretty dire economic situation and Moscow will be looking to retrench control at home in a precarious political position. Whoever is running the Kremlin at that point will have a limited amount of bandwidth and have enormous trade reliance on partners (China primarily) who will want to invest in Ukrainian grain, Ukrainian ports, etc. Ukraine will have won militarily, it will have won in the contest of ideologies and it will have a lot to offer Russian allies who will possess leverage.

Does that make a supported insurgency impossible? No. But it certainly isn't anything like the COIN problems we faced in the Middle East or even the ethnic divides of Belfast. Ukraine will have advantages here that most security forces lack and very powerful political, cultural and security motivations to win. I know where I'd put my money if it came to a bet. 

[L0ckAndL0ad]

Re: possible insurgency

1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.

2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayhem what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.

3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.

4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.

5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.

 

Re: how am I doing?

My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.

For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.

But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.

I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.

I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...

Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.

At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then, there was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.

Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.

I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.

Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

Edited August 26, 2023 by L0ckAndL0ad
typos

[stuxneet]

3 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Despite losses (by Orix 76 destroyed and captured + 9 damaged/abandoned) BTR-4 still in action. Maybe we continue to produce them...

LIkely 92nd assault brigade (former 92nd mech.brigade)

Had that same thought- maybe the solid green ones without RPG cages are new production? or maybe ones taken from the Indonesian order? I'm no expert on its variations, but the headlights on the two green ones are much different than most you see

[poesel]

10 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It could go either way and we don't know definitively yet but elements in the German government are clearly pushing the idea that the Russians didn't stop an attack by amateurs with their professionals on site and didn't do the pig obvious thing (go public) that would have stopped the attack in its tracks. Those are extraordinary claims that will require extraordinary proofs...

I really shouldn't link to articles nobody can read...

This article is from a German newspaper and TV station, not the government. The government actually says nothing about this. Nil, zip, nada. Theres probably currently no interest in finding out.

Btw, the tip came from the Dutch secret service. It was relayed to the US and Germany. The tip stated that the attack would happen during that NATO maneuvre in the Baltics. When that tip reached the German government that date had already passed and it was thus discarded as false.

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

Re: possible insurgency

1. First off, as Steve already said, things can theoretically happen. We're talking about the most likely scenario. Anyone who predicts future with 100% certainty is a fraud.

2. Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of bad blood. Just as you saw a lot of Crimeans genuinely cheering up and supporting the invaders in 2014, the Crimeans saw people on mainland Ukraine cheer powerlines being blown up as 2 million people plunged into darkness, water channel being cut off, the roads being blocked for cargo traffic, with all the little nasty consequences that were actually physically felt here. The reactionary post-2014 policies, laws and rethoric weren't great either. But compared to all the mayham what's been happening since Feb 2022, this is nothing. And people are TIRED of chaos, flying jets, drones, explosions and death. Those who are currently in the trenches or came from there are tired as well.

3. What would be "the cause" to rally behind? They can't even formulate victory conditions for the current war. Nor can they achieve anything significant, with all their men and equipment in the field. Rallying (who, civilians?) to do something a huge army can't do? That requires guts and there's none. Only stupidity and hubris. They are unable to say NO when told to do something stupid or illegal. Saying no requires guts.

4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.

5. That being said, it's been nine years, and nobody can pretict how much more time will pass before that. It can happen in two months, or in two years, or in ten. And with every single day, people are growing more tired. They are trying as hard as they can not to notice what's happening now. And there's no land warfare close by yet. When it comes, they'll have much more incentive to make it stop ASAP.

 

Re: how am I doing?

My life isn't as horrible as for some others out there. But things can change literally any minute, as for everybody else in the region. So I am trying to live in the moment while I can.

For those who don't know, I tried to get to Estonia via St.Petersburg back in September. Before Feb 2022, it was illegal (by Ukrainian laws) thing to do. I managed to contact some Ukrainian officials and learned that it is okay during the war, if your purpose is to leave the occupied areas/Russia.

But, as I also have Russian passport (issued locally after 2014, and almost impossible to get rid of without being put into danger), Russia views me as Russian citizen first, and by their laws, I had to get foreign travel passport in order to leave. I did that, and it took time. I also had to prepare money and other affairs. Thus I managed to get to the Estonian border only in September. My thinking was that it would be safer to deal with Russian documents after I cross the border, not before.

I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point. The rules are: you can apply for asylum if you have no valid travel documents. But when I got to the border, Estonian police and border guard told me that everything is fine with my Russian passport (the travel document I had to use to leave the Russian side of the border, because Russian laws) and thus I cannot ask for an asylum.

I told them many things about myself, and that I would be in danger if I return, but they did not care. They were angry and not cooperative, unwilling to listen. They blamed me for not coming sooner and for other things I had no control over. That night at the border is something that still haunts me to this day. Being rejected by the people who you considered to be good and being sent back to modern day neo-USSR. And there are things that I am not telling you here, because it is dangerous...

Anyway.. I came to St.Petersburg. Got seriously ill. Still, I got tickets to Vladikavkaz in order to try crossing into Georgia. But soon I found a lot of info online that told me the same story would happen there as well. There were no other good alternatives that came to my mind. Going somewhere else eastward wasn't looking like a good idea either, legally, logistically and for other reasons.

At that time, my little sister was still in Crimea. I've decided to come back here and deal with whatever happens to all of us together. Since then was a harsh winter without work. Serious depression, from which I barely managed to recover on my own, without meds or therapist. The dangers that are lurking out there are real. But I know who I am and what I stand for, and where my allegiance is.

Most importantly, I know that the bastards have already lost. I knew that back in Feb 2022. They will not succeed, no matter what happens to me personally. They can't do anything good in this world, and there's no "winning" for them in any shape or form.

I've stopped working on my Unity dev career for now. I tried to find some remote work, but failed and had to return back to working in a store. I do see a future where things go at least a little bit better. But for that to happen, a lot of people have to put in a lot of effort. There's nothing free, and freedom itself is not free. We all have to work for it.

Alright, I've already said much more than I should've. Over and out.

I cannot begin to imagine what  you've gone through but hang in there! 

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, poesel said:

I really shouldn't link to articles nobody can read...

This article is from a German newspaper and TV station, not the government. The government actually says nothing about this. Nil, zip, nada. Theres probably currently no interest in finding out.

Btw, the tip came from the Dutch secret service. It was relayed to the US and Germany. The tip stated that the attack would happen during that NATO maneuvre in the Baltics. When that tip reached the German government that date had already passed and it was thus discarded as false.

The hard reality of national security reporting is that there are a vanishingly small number of sources to work with and all of them are either former or current members of the intelligence services. So "the Government" isn't putting out official statements but an element of the government most certainly is passing on those details to those reporters. That's how it works. It's critical to ask yourself why. 

[JonS]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 I believe that there is a high probability of civilian violent opposition to Ukrainian liberation in Crimea, ...

You are on record as stating it is “unlikely”.

The fun(?) bit is, regardless of what eventuates, you can both say you were right.

Insurgency occurs: Capt sez "told ya", while Steve sez "'unlikely' is not 'impossible'. This is one of the outcomes I said were possible."

Insurgency does not occur: Steve sez "told ya. You were jumping at shadows" while Capt sez "conditions weren't met because Ukraine took the right countermeasures when they reoccupied."

When the predictions are probabilistic, but the outcomes are binary, everybody gets to say they won.

(See also: 538's prediction of the 2016 election)

Edited August 26, 2023 by JonS

[Haiduk]

One of crucial heights near Novoprokopivka has taken. Rusnia, await our gifts!

Likely this is about height 163 on east. Other smaller height 164 (all heights according old 1985 topomap) is closer to the village and SE from it

[Haiduk]

 

[Anon052]

3 hours ago, poesel said:

Quite the contrary. The documentary displays the facts as far as they are known to the public and refrains from presenting a conclusion. But it does list the options. That includes those that most of us probably dislike.

I watched the documentary and I find it really bad. In german I would say "tendenziös" the english meaning would be tendentiously. A lot of known information was not presented. If this was intentional or just bad research I can not say but especially the spiegel has lost a lot of journalistic credibility in recent years and had a  pro russian tendency. Not long ago they did an article where their only source was a russian spy so they published direct russian propaganda and similar events.

They somehow forgot to mention in the documentary that Diana D. is a russian national, that wasn't born in Ukraine/crimea and only got an ukrainian passport in 2001. After she went to crimea she did a lot of pro russian activity. In the documentary she was portrayed as ukrainian and they found it not strange that she appeared in russia after the bombings.

And I don't know why they missed the seismic profiles of the explosions that clearly contradicts their assumption that only a small amount of explosives was used.

Some of the conclussions they draw there are not very logical. I would like to see how they picture the Andromeda doing the work on 4 pipelines in short amount of time on open sea. I work with specialised ships/ shipcrews that work in bomb disposal. The amount of specialised equipment needed to only work in depths of 5-10m with explosives is really high. I asked some of the divers if they think it was possible to do the work needed from Andromeda. They laughted in my face. Most of the divers have navy background......

 

Edited August 26, 2023 by Anon052

[Grossman]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Not allegience to Putin personally, but to the Russian state.

True. But Putin sees himself as the Russian State as Hitler did with Germany. A sign of insecurity. Putin in my mind is a dead man walking. The Wagner people and the Army will take their revenge.  Within 6 months, I'd say, before next Spring, but the plotting will have already started. And by the way this will be a long war. 

[The_Capt]

32 minutes ago, JonS said:

The fun(?) bit is, regardless of what eventuates, you can both say you were right.

Insurgency occurs: Capt sez "told ya", while Steve sez "'unlikely' is not 'impossible'. This is one of the outcomes I said were possible."

Insurgency does not occur: Steve sez "told ya. You were jumping at shadows" while Capt sez "conditions weren't met because Ukraine took the right countermeasures when they reoccupied."

When the predictions are probabilistic, but the outcomes are binary, everybody gets to say they won.

(See also: 538's prediction of the 2016 election)

Well accept for the part where is does not really matter what two old guys said on a wargaming forum. I damn well hope an insurgency does not occur and that Crimea can be retaken slamming the door shut on Russian meddling forever.  If Russia has totally collapse to do this, well we have a whole new set of problems to deal with.

We will be able to see pretty clearly if the right counters were put in place, having an entire government department built and ready to go for reintegration is a pretty good start.  Soft hands and incentivizing the liberated populations is another good route to go.  Like most professional military we hope and pray to be wrong before a crisis starts, in that is never starts.  But I simple cannot see a way out of this without a lot of risks and conditions for things to go sideways…we will have to see.

[Haiduk]

Drone unit "White wolf" of SBU Special force "Alfa" claimed they alreafy destroyed 216 Russian tanks, using R18 night bombers. This is 2,5 of tank regiments (I suppose they meant 216 armored vehicles, buat anyway this is huge number if true)

 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

4. You need to understand the reality on the ground. Pretty much all Crimeans who haven't left have Russian passports. What, 1.5-2 million people? Myself included. Because living here without one is practically impossible. Hell, I know Crimeans who left and are currently on mainland Ukraine that also have Russian passports, issued in Crimea in 2014 (illegaly, obviously). For Ukrainian government to take back control, they'll have to deal with it somehow. And bunch of other documents. There's already been laws and decrees passed aimed to make the transition back as painless as possible. There's a whole ministry that's dealing with issues like these. Refer to Ministry of Reintegration sources for more information.

You realize that a few pages back people here were calling for your deportation in the event of a liberation?  This is the mess.  You clearly are not a pro-Russian sympathizer but in the wrong circumstances unless you can prove Ukrainian citizenship and loyalty you could be on a boat out based on some of the rhetoric being thrown around here. The cause emerges out of situations just like this.

Anyway as I said before let’s honestly hope it does not come to this.  Hopefully people will be integrated smoothly and embrace peace.  It is when the honeymoon period ends that things may get weird.  For the record I am talking insurgency here, not partisan resistance during the war.  That I strongly suspect is off the table.  I am talking 6 months to a year after the war and something does not go right and Russia is still able to make trouble…because they will if they can.

And in all sincerity, take care of yourself.

Edited August 26, 2023 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, L0ckAndL0ad said:

I knew that Russian passports issued in Crimea are not recognized by the EU. My Ukrainian foreign travel passport was outdated by that point.

Do you have inner Ukrainan passport? Ukraine has opened Kolotylivka border crossing in Sumy oblast in order Ukrainin citizens could return to Ukraine without big circle through Europe. This checkpoint works only in one direction - from Russia to Ukraine. Also it uses for official exchanges of POWs and civilains, moved to Russia. 

Edited August 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

59 minutes ago, billbindc said:

To this point, the milieu in which Ukraine takes over would be in the wake of decisive Russian defeats that will be more than just military. The idea of Russkiy Mir will have been punctured definitively. Russia itself will be in a pretty dire economic situation and Moscow will be looking to retrench control at home in a precarious political position. Whoever is running the Kremlin at that point will have a limited amount of bandwidth and have enormous trade reliance on partners (China primarily) who will want to invest in Ukrainian grain, Ukrainian ports, etc. Ukraine will have won militarily, it will have won in the contest of ideologies and it will have a lot to offer Russian allies who will possess leverage.

Does that make a supported insurgency impossible? No. But it certainly isn't anything like the COIN problems we faced in the Middle East or even the ethnic divides of Belfast. Ukraine will have advantages here that most security forces lack and very powerful political, cultural and security motivations to win. I know where I'd put my money if it came to a bet. 

If Russia totally collapses, we have a whole other set of problems than a Crimean or Donbas insurgency.  A potential Russian civil war for starters.  One that will not stay nicely in Russian borders.  Then any group with a grudge can warband up and do dirty anywhere.  

[billbindc]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If Russia totally collapses, we have a whole other set of problems than a Crimean or Donbas insurgency.  A potential Russian civil war for starters.  One that will not stay nicely in Russian borders.  Then any group with a grudge can warband up and do dirty anywhere.  

You may put me firmly in the camp of those who think a Russian state collapse is a highly unlikely outcome. We've already seen how demobilized Russian citizens are. When this ends, it's far more likely whimper than bang.

[dan/california]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You realize that a few pages back people here were calling for your deportation in the event of a liberation?  This is the mess.  You clearly are not a pro-Russian sympathizer but in the wrong circumstances unless you can prove Ukrainian citizenship and loyalty you could be on a boat out based on some of the rhetoric being thrown around here. The cause emerges out of situations just like this.

Anyway as I said before let’s honestly hope it does not come to this.  Hopefully people will be integrated smoothly and embrace peace.  It is when the honeymoon period ends that things may get weird.  For the record I am talking insurgency here, not partisan resistance during the war.  That I strongly suspect is off the table.  I am talking 6 months to a year after the war and something does not go right and Russia is still able to make trouble…because they will if they can.

I realize you are correct that the situation rife with all sort of bad possibilities. First thing first though, this would be a very good problem to have. It implies the Russians have flat out lost. The second is that Ukraine has a whole ministry dedicated to thinking about these sorts of dilemmas  in advance. Every thing I have seen them put out seems measured, intelligent and thoughtful. In particular their was an announcement that Ukrainian civilians under occupation should accept whatever Russian paperwork they need to get by, including passports. They promised to sort it all out later with maximum forbearance. I don't think there is anything else we can ask them to do at this point.

In short the Ukrainians appear to be trying to emulate the U.S. occupation of Germany after WW2, not some of our later errors. 

Edited August 26, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

You realize that a few pages back people here were calling for your deportation in the event of a liberation?

Why he have to be deported if he lived in Crimea before 2014? But all Russians, who came to Crimea after occupation are illegals and must leave Ukrainian territory. All their deals of real estate are legally void.

I suppose, if Crimea become a theater of warfare, they will just flee as most of local pro-Russian vatniks.

Edited August 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If Russia totally collapses, we have a whole other set of problems than a Crimean or Donbas insurgency.  A potential Russian civil war for starters.  One that will not stay nicely in Russian borders.  Then any group with a grudge can warband up and do dirty anywhere.  

I dream of RU having an internal warlord civil war that goes for a couple years, leading to eastern provinces peeling off as independent states.  I want russians to feel the kind of suffering they've put on other for the last 80 years (eastern europe & now ukraine).  I want them to feel the consequences of their worldview.  I want RU as a rump state w no oil.  I want RU so busy with it's own mess it stops poisoning all the democracies w misinformation and paid propaganda.

Unfortunately my fantasy would probably not come true in a good way, as the chaos would cross borders as you state.  And there's the nukes.  But dang, a fella can dream.

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

If Russia totally collapses, we have a whole other set of problems than a Crimean or Donbas insurgency.  A potential Russian civil war for starters.  One that will not stay nicely in Russian borders.  Then any group with a grudge can warband up and do dirty anywhere.  

 

18 minutes ago, billbindc said:

You may put me firmly in the camp of those who think a Russian state collapse is a highly unlikely outcome. We've already seen how demobilized Russian citizens are. When this ends, it's far more likely whimper than bang.

These two posts seem to encapsulate the fundamental disagreement at the highest policy level. Approximately half the experts think the Russian state is fragile enough to just shatter if it is booted in the bum to hard. The other half thinks most of the Russian population is to unmotivated to have a proper civil war, and will just accept orders from whoever is occupying the Kremlin after a bit of gangland unpleasantness.

 

Quote

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/deep-state-radio/id1245002955?i=1000625765152

One of the experts on this podcast, a native Russian speaker, argues strongly for the to demotivated camp. His take was that the coup demonstrated a desperate desire not to get involved by almost everyone. Only a ~quarter of Wagner actually signed on for the party. Almost all of the actual Russian military was to paralyzed with indecision to do much of anything. Some of them probably preferred Wagner, and some of them probably preferred Putin. All they actually did was get drunk, pretend they were drunk, or and/or mysteriously lose their phones.

Edited August 26, 2023 by dan/california