How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

What facts?

That Ukraine did not face any form of insurgency in the "separatist" areas it took back from separatist control, despite having similar opinion polls to the one you cited.  I also stated some facts about the most problematic pre-war individuals now holding both official government positions in Crimea and also Russian passports.  It is not a fact that they will leave instead of being tried for treason, but I think it's a pretty safe assumption that is what will happen. 

It has also been accepted as fact (leaked Kremlin document) that about 50 (or was it 60?) something percent of the people who voted opted to become part of Russia, even though there was no solid option to remain part of Ukraine.  Estimates put the actual number far lower:

Andrey Illarionov, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute and a former Russian government adviser, cited results of previous polls over past three years showing the Crimean support for joining Russia between 23 and 41 percent to conclude that the actual support for the reunification of Crimea with Russia was about 34 percent and that at least two thirds of Crimea did not vote for it. He called the referendum a "grossly rigged falsification" and the outcome "cynically distorted".

And then there's this:

50 to 60% of a 30-50% turnout suggests that only about 15 to 30% of eligible voters actually voted for annexation. Moreover, the low turnout rate, combined with evidence of intimidation and violence by pro-Russia forces, strongly suggests that many opponents of annexation chose not to vote out of fear. This does not definitively prove that annexation lacked majority support. It is possible that a fair vote might still have led to a narrow majority in favor of annexation. Still, the Council report provides further evidence that the official results cannot be trusted and that the real distribution of opinion in Crimea is at least much more evenly divided than Russia claims.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2014/05/06/russian-government-agency-reveals-fraudulent-nature-of-the-crimean-referendum-results/

Another fact is there hasn't been any independent polling (i.e. without fear of FSB listening in) since the 2014 occupation started and a related fact is that many things have changed since then.

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This says based on 2014 census that 67.8 of the Crimean population identified as Russian.

I'm surprised you would quote this and think it is relevant.  It has been proven to have no correlation to wanting to be part of Russia.  In fact, these polls have been cited over and over again as one of the top reasons why Putin thought he could just roll in and take everything east of the Dnepr excepting Kyiv.  And we know how well that turned out

It's akin to asking someone who lives in Texas if they view themselves a Texan first or American first.  I bet a majority would say Texan.  How many, though, would be in favor of separating from the US?  A frighteningly large number, I'm sure, but I doubt it is the majority.

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This is not over hyping in the least. 

Sure it is.  There is a strong case to make that Ukraine will not face an armed insurgency if it takes over Crimea if Russia collapses.  I have seen no specific argument to suggest an insurgency is a possibility other than "crap happens, plan for the worst".  Plan A should be based on the most likely scenario, not the worst case.  Since insurgency isn't the most likely case, it shouldn't be Plan A.  But it would be stupid to not have a Plan B (as Russia should know by now).

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As to previously already re-liberated regions simply rolling over.  Well first of all we really do not know what they did

Er, unless Ukraine and all the world's media (including Russian) missed the fact that there was an insurgency in the recaptured territory, then it's pretty safe to conclude there wasn't an insurgency.  You can argue that it might not necessarily be reflective of Crimea due to scale, but that's not what you stated.

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We do no [sic] LNR and DPR sent tens of thousands to fight the UA and I do not think they all did so at gunpoint.  And second, how quickly we forget the problems with Russian sympathizers and actions at the beginning of this war (eg Kherson). 

Note that DLPR and Crimea need to be looked at differently.  Crimeans did not fight to be part of Russia, they just didn't fight against it.  DLPR, on the other hand, have fought long and hard to be either independent of Ukraine or part of Russia (there's a split on this within their population, BTW).  However, they are militarily exhausted and without Russian support they'd fold up within a few months to a couple of years as Russia is the only thing keeping it afloat.  More so now that DLPR's military has been forcefully, and incompetently, folded into the Russian MoD.

That said, if Ukraine militarily seeks to retake DLPR territory then I do think some form of insurgency would be a major concern.

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

And of course we have not discussed Russians simply sending “insurgents” over the border to make lives miserable…like they did the last time. 

This is a highly complex situation rooted deeply in the human space and that is never simple or easy by any stretch.  We are best prepared understanding the risks up front and ready to deal with them than pretending they can’t possibly happen.

Who said it can't possibly happen?  Certainly not me.  What I argued is that an insurgency is not likely given a realistic scenario for Ukraine taking back its territory.  Not likely ≠ impossible

As a reminder, the only scenario I see where Ukraine takes back Crimea and DLPR any time soon is if Russia suffers a total systemic militarily collapse.  For that to happen it probably requires Russia to have devolved into some form of civil war.  Therefore, it is a pretty good bet that under those circumstances Russia will be unable to interfere in Ukraine's affairs as it did in 2014-2023 simply because it is too weak and distracted to do so.  This doesn't make Ukraine's efforts to govern and rebuild DLPR and Crimea a piece of cake by any stretch as the challenges there are significant even without an insurgency.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

This is why I don't understand Tatarigami_UA's statement that we should not believe that Russia has a manpower problem nor a rotation problem.  Here's the latest ISW report:

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 25 and reportedly advanced as Russian milbloggers expressed concern over a lack of reinforcements and troop rotations in the area. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved unspecified successes in the directions of the Novodanylivka-Novopokropivka (5-13km south of Orikhiv) line and the Mala Tokmachka-Ocheretuvate (9-25km southeast of Orikhiv) line.[25] A prominent Russian milblogger expressed concern about the ability of battle-weary Russian forces to defend against possible future renewed Ukrainian attacks near Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) amid claims that fighting shifted to southern Robotyne.[26] The milblogger claimed that many of the Russian servicemen fighting near Robotyne have been on the frontline since the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and that these units struggle with a shortage of frontline reinforcements.[27] This claim supports ISW’s assessment that Russian forces fighting in the western Zaporizhia Oblast area have been defending against Ukrainian attacks since the start of the counteroffensive without rotation or significant reinforcement.[28]

The non-specific advances south of Robotyne are the ones mentioned yesterday by some bloggers.  Probably they're wrong about Ukraine already being in Novopokropivka (I think we'd have seen more claims if it were true), but it does appear that they have made significant progress towards that.

On the other hand, Ukraine is reporting that Russia is transferring new forces into Luhansk as part of an attempt to rebuild the offensive capacity they lost in the last few months:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

WTF is this?  A top leader of one of the worst DLPR units ever was arrested in FINLAND?  What was he doing anywhere near a country where he's considered a war criminal?

On the other hand, Ukrainian MOD thanking the Brits makes total sense:

 

 

Steve

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

WTF is this?  A top leader of one of the worst DLPR units ever was arrested in FINLAND?  What was he doing anywhere near a country where he's considered a war criminal?

Steve

Trying not to get shot and left in a ditch somewhere near the front by the FSB? Putin seems like he is sort of over RuNat criticism. This guy might be even more likely to fall out of a window, since Putin seems to view any hint of independence by the L/DPR just as dimly as he views criticism of his war plan. The only explanation for picking Finland though is that he thought he had fake papers that would hold up. Not many places he would get less sympathy.

[Battlefront.com]

This is a video of Russia's recent loss of a bunch of tanks and IFVs.  I don't think this particular video has been posted yet.  Interesting look at how the column got to where it was destroyed:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Yesterday I ran across a Russian source that stated some 85+ Ukrainian vehicles were observed moving into the Roboytne area.  Nothing about engaging them, just that they were observed moving into the area.  Then today I found this post from Rybar (also from yesterday) seeming to identify them as 118th Mech Brigade and 15th NG Brigade:

85 vehicles is only a couple of companies, maybe a battalion, depending on what the vehicles are.  A significant force for this small of a sector, but probably not out of the ordinary.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Abkhazia doesn't appear to be interested in becoming a part of Russia, despite Medvedev suggesting it:

https://www.politico.eu/article/georgia-breakaway-region-abkhazia-joining-russia-south-caucasus/
 

Steve

[Haiduk]

Huge loss for our knights of the sky. This night, in result of collision of two jets over Zhytomyr oblast experienced pilot "Juice" has died. He was one of "energizers" of F-16 supply for Ukraine and has been preparing for training on F-16 in October. 

"Juice" on the photo

Also,as became knowingly, other known pilot "Nomad" was lost in sortie on 2nd of June.

 

Edited August 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[chuckdyke]

She has a long memory this old dear. 103? I would give her 75.

 

 

Edited August 26, 2023 by chuckdyke

[poesel]

SPIEGEL has a long article about the destruction of Nord Stream (paywalled, German):
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/nord-stream-anschlag-in-der-ostsee-die-spuren-fuehren-in-eine-richtung-in-die-ukraine-a-befcbfbb-b1cd-4912-aeaa-56bef4dd8047

They did it together with German TV ZDF who made a documentary (I'm not sure if this is accessible from abroad):
https://www.zdf.de/politik/frontal/doku-fall-nord-stream-spurensuche-ostsee-andromeda-gas-pipeline-explosion-russland-sabotage-ukraine-krieg-100.html

TL;DR:

• it was done with a small sail boat with 6-man crew, specialists have confirmed that to be feasible
• Russian activities at the time & place likely were attempted countermeasures
• all trails lead to Ukraine & Ukrainians
• Zelensky's involvement highly unlikely, but maybe lower rank, nothing proven
• could be Russian false flag - biggest counterargument is that they didn't botch that highly complicated mission
• German government is unusually tight-lipped & has no real interest in solving the case (now or maybe never)

[Livdoc44]

4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Huge loss for our knights of the sky. This night, in result of collision of two jets over Zhytomyr oblast experienced pilot "Juice" has died. He was one of "energizers" of F-16 supply for Ukraine and has been preparing for training on F-16 in October. 

"Juice" on the photo

Also,as became knowingly, other known pilot "Nomad" was lost in sortie on 2nd of June.

 

Oh damn, that's a shame. 

For anyone who hasn't seen it, he sat down for two 40-minute-long videos with the Aircrew Interview channel on YouTube last year. Worth a watch.

Edited August 26, 2023 by Livdoc44
Word choice

[Haiduk]

56 minutes ago, Livdoc44 said:

Oh damn, that's a shame. 

If you haven't seen it, last year he sat down for two 40-minute-long videos with the Aircrew Interview channel on YouTube. Worth a watch.

Air Forces Commander told two L-39 trainer jets have collided. Three pilots have lost. 

Here first time photo of "Juice" with full-open face. His name was Andriy Pil'shchikov.

 

Edited August 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Looks like main efforts now UKR troops concentrate for taking height 163 east from Novoprokopivka (on the map this is where most southern "finger" of UKR advance)

Edited August 26, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Sure it is.  There is a strong case to make that Ukraine will not face an armed insurgency if it takes over Crimea if Russia collapses.  I have seen no specific argument to suggest an insurgency is a possibility other than "crap happens, plan for the worst".  Plan A should be based on the most likely scenario, not the worst case.  Since insurgency isn't the most likely case, it shouldn't be Plan A.  But it would be stupid to not have a Plan B (as Russia should know by now).

Ok, let’s use your facts then.  At 15% of the local population actively supporting annexation that is around 330,000 who appears to be solidly in the pro-Russian camp…in 2014.  It is a major leap of logic to assume that the dynamics of 2014 apply ten years later but after ten years of Russian rule it is safe bet that the area was “Russified” pretty intensely.

And then there is the very awkward question of “how much civil resistance did the Russian’s see when they took over the entire region?”  This is also a major indicator you are skipping over.

Here is the point most people miss on insurgencies, and you are doing it here as well - they are very often if not always a very small minority of the population.  If all 2.2 million Crimeans decide “nope” and take up active or violent resistance then Ukraine will not take back Crimea.  However, as you note and here I do agree, this is very unlikely.  But they don’t have to. The majority of civilians need only stay neutral or play both sides - here the nearly 68 percent who identify as Russia come into play.  A fraction of a fraction of the 15% who actively were onside need only take up arms and be supported by an outside power for this to constitute a major insurgency.  Say only 33,000 Crimeans get really riled up, hidden amongst a neutral population that really have no love or loyalty to either side, you have the conditions right there for a decades long problem.  It will be very much in Russia’s interest to make that happen, which is another major factor.

”Crap happens plan for the worst”.  Really?  Ok, once again let’s review the key factors that provide the fuel for insurgents, all that “happening crap” that we teach a joint war colleges:

- A cause.  Very often tied to identity, ethnicity or religion (often all three) and a belief in an idea of a political framework other than the one they are living under.  In simpler terms a certainty.  Is there a population in either of the occupied regions who are likely to have “a cause”?  Well 2014-2023 says “likely”. https://www.crisisgroup.org/content/conflict-ukraines-donbas-visual-explainer

- Failure in mechanism of change/representation.  Re-integration of these regions is going to be dicey in the extreme as it will mean re-enfranchisement of potentially hostile citizenry into a democratic process.  This was a major flash point in the Donbas pre-2014, perceived lack of representation and failures in representative governance.https://www.ponarseurasia.org/wp-content/uploads/attachments/Pepm351_Kudelia_Sept2014.pdf.  This situation boxes some people in to the point that violent resistance is the only agent of change.  So is there likely to be a portion of the Crimean population that is at risk of feeling dis-enfranchised after liberation?  Are they going to feel boxed in?

- Weak governance.  This is an area you have already admitted is a risk and frankly it will become a key battleground post-conflict.  If governance slips, corruption and old habits come into play then popular sentiment can swing pretty fast. Insurgencies thrive on poor governance and inequities, which they link immediately to their cause as the solutions for. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-choice-corruption-or-growth/

- Popular support.  This does not need to be active support, it can simply be passive.  Both you and our Ukrainian posters point to largely “neutral populace in these regions”, that is more than enough to set conditions for effective insurgencies.  They will play that neutrality and use money and other incentives to create transactional networks that allow them freedom of movement.  The other viable tactic is effectively staging over reaction from the “liberators” in order to push neutrality in their direction.  As has already been covered, this is a very likely condition in these regions.

- Repression.  Perceived or manufactured narratives, conditions of repression of populations are rich soil for insurgency.  You, and other posters have already leaned into mass deportations, which is going to look and feel pretty repressive in the regions.  This sort of stuff can split families and friends along “citizenship and true loyalty” lines.  As has also been noted Ukrainian security services are in high gear and will be very likely pushing hard to root out cells before they can metastasize.  Is there a likely perception of repression under these conditions?  Is there a vulnerable narrative that can be exploited?

- External support with interests.  Normally passive support by a neighbouring nation, safe havens and blind eyes (eg Taliban in Pakistan) is bad enough.  Active support at the levels Russia is likely to provide is something else.  This is a North Vietnam/Mujahideen situation.  Is this likely?  We already saw Russia do this for years in these regions.  Will Russia have an interest in making life a living hell for Ukraine in Crimea and Donbas?  Will they have means and opportunity?  Short of a complete collapse of Russia (and then we have a whole new set of problems), I suspect the answer is a hard “yes”.

That is not great risk calculus nor is it “hype”.  And in the “crap happens” camp of "no insurgency": “Solvyanks did not blow up, all the bad people will leave, those left are too lazy to do anything about it anyway and LNR/DPR and Russians suck.”

Ok, well let’s put this one down on record then because we are not likely to agree.  I believe that there is a high probability of civilian violent opposition to Ukrainian liberation in Crimea, and even though it will be a very small minority it will cause strategic effects. It will likely happen in the 1-5 years after liberation, faster if Ukraine gets too heavy handed.  To counter this will take significant effort not only by Ukraine but by it allies to ensure those conditions above are stamped out. This will come at significant cost and risk, and cannot be the piecemeal support we have seen from the West so far.  It will also take an epic reconciliation, reconstruction and enfranchisement effort on the part of the Ukrainian people as well as major reforms in Ukrainian government, some of which are facing off against generational internal cultures.  Can it be done? Yes.  Will it be done?  Unknown

You are on record as stating it is “unlikely”.  Let’s see where it lands.  The good news in all this is that if we get a chance to find out the region will have been retaken in the first place.

Edited August 26, 2023 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

Despite losses (by Orix 76 destroyed and captured + 9 damaged/abandoned) BTR-4 still in action. Maybe we continue to produce them...

LIkely 92nd assault brigade (former 92nd mech.brigade)

 

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

Looks like main efforts now UKR troops concentrate for taking height 163 east from Novoprokopivka (on the map this is where most southern "finger" of UKR advance)

As soon as that first PGM goes off, they were PGMs or crazy good shooting, the infantry just start running. It would seem the vatniks have learned the signature for when the Ukrainians are serious about taking a particular spot, and just bug out when they see it. It didn't seem to do this lot much good. I don't think most of them had time to regret their life choices properly.

Edit: Terrible news about the pilots, The price Ukraine pays for the West being slow and timid just keeps going up.

Edited August 26, 2023 by dan/california

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, poesel said:

SPIEGEL has a long article about the destruction of Nord Stream (paywalled, German):
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/nord-stream-anschlag-in-der-ostsee-die-spuren-fuehren-in-eine-richtung-in-die-ukraine-a-befcbfbb-b1cd-4912-aeaa-56bef4dd8047

They did it together with German TV ZDF who made a documentary (I'm not sure if this is accessible from abroad):
https://www.zdf.de/politik/frontal/doku-fall-nord-stream-spurensuche-ostsee-andromeda-gas-pipeline-explosion-russland-sabotage-ukraine-krieg-100.html

TL;DR:

• it was done with a small sail boat with 6-man crew, specialists have confirmed that to be feasible
• Russian activities at the time & place likely were attempted countermeasures
• all trails lead to Ukraine & Ukrainians
• Zelensky's involvement highly unlikely, but maybe lower rank, nothing proven
• could be Russian false flag - biggest counterargument is that they didn't botch that highly complicated mission
• German government is unusually tight-lipped & has no real interest in solving the case (now or maybe never)

The idea that the Russians were attempt to covertly stop a Ukrainian attack on Nordstream is...to put it mildly...absurd. All they would have had to do is make it public and the Ukrainian government would have perforce put an end to it. Also, that Russia is somehow inherently incapable of complex covert operations is...well, let's just say that they've been doing them against the Germans successfully for a long time so perhaps the BND and friends aren't the best judges of that capability.

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The idea that the Russians were attempt to covertly stop a Ukrainian attack on Nordstream is...to put it mildly...absurd. All they would have had to do is make it public and the Ukrainian government would have perforce put an end to it. Also, that Russia is somehow inherently incapable of complex covert operations is...well, let's just say that they've been doing them against the Germans successfully for a long time so perhaps the BND and friends aren't the best judges of that capability.

Indeed, this documentary appears to have been one of those successful operations.

 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

22 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Trainloads of deported Russian who have been living in Crimea for ten years with sad music on YouTube is also not really a good thing either.

If Ukrainians take Crimea, that is 100% certain to happen. The UKR are not going to be fooled twice and leave in place a fifth column ready to make trouble again. This, and some images of Russian PoWs getting a kick on the bottom or some other humiliating treatment. Look at WW 2 images of Germans surrenderring or having surrendered - that kind of behaviour is bound to happen, because soldiers on the good side are not angels themselves, just fighting for a vastly better cause and most of the time, not incentivised to commit outright war crimes.

So it is the duty of UKR PsyOps units to counterballance those images with the horrors of Bucha or indiscriminate attacks on cities, etc. They are good at this so I am confident the public opinion effect will be minimised. Unless the Western governements actively look for excuses to cut aid to the Ukraine, in which case their propaganda machine will be engaged to amplify the sad lot of the Russians being ethnically cleansed. But that would be a result of a shift in policy, not a reason for it.

[poesel]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

The idea that the Russians were attempt to covertly stop a Ukrainian attack on Nordstream is...to put it mildly...absurd. All they would have had to do is make it public and the Ukrainian government would have perforce put an end to it.

There were some Russians ships with turned off transponders in that region just prior to the explosions. They could have placed the explosives or try to remove them. We don't know.

Pro (Russia is the culprit): they tried to evade the fines for not delivering gas by force majeure

Contra: why would they destroy a big source of income?

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Also, that Russia is somehow inherently incapable of complex covert operations is...well, let's just say that they've been doing them against the Germans successfully for a long time so perhaps the BND and friends aren't the best judges of that capability.

Yes, but I don't mean they couldn't do it. I meant that they couldn't do it without being caught afterwards. Their track record hasn't been that good lately.

7 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Indeed, this documentary appears to have been one of those successful operations.

 

Quite the contrary. The documentary displays the facts as far as they are known to the public and refrains from presenting a conclusion. But it does list the options. That includes those that most of us probably dislike.

[Haiduk]

Oleksiy Danylov, Secreter of National Security Council claims Russian S-400 in Crimea was hit by new UKR missile, have been developing since 2020. He told no any details. I think this can be Neptun, upgraded for ground targets attack. But maybe and some new...

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/08/26/7417218/

[Haiduk]

Nice turret toss of Russian BMD-4 after it was hit with FPV drone of 77th air-assault brigade

 

[Grossman]

Wagner mercenaries must swear allegiance to Putin.  Echoes of Hitler

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66627957

[danfrodo]

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

On the other hand, Ukrainian MOD thanking the Brits makes total sense:

Literally laughed out loud at the end of that, thanks for sharing.  

 

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Looks like main efforts now UKR troops concentrate for taking height 163 east from Novoprokopivka (on the map this is where most southern "finger" of UKR advance)

And from the topo maps I've seen, it looks like UKR would be looking downhill toward Tokmak once they get the remainder of the heights in that area.  I've lowered my expectations but also still optimistic.  If UKR completely cuts Tokmak, that's a pretty darn good outcome of the summer campaign.  The rasputitsa can still be spent doing corrosion all the way to the coast if UKR controls a wide line either side (or even one side) of Tokmak, as we've seen in maps here on the forum.  Then I am hoping for some frozen ground this winter and UKR makes it the rest of the way to the coast.  

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Grossman said:

Wagner mercenaries must swear allegiance to Putin.  Echoes of Hitler

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66627957

I am guessing a hefty paycut for these mercs.  Putin will probably promise big money and then simply not follow once he doesn't need them anymore.