How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[A Canadian Cat]

12 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

EDIT: A friend points out that 10 passengers is a lot for a junglet jet.

Lets nip that in the bud. While it is entirely possible the occupants were not who we were told or already dead - but the size of the plane is not a problem. CNN reports the type of plane as and Embraer Legacy 600 which has a 13 passenger configuration and and 8 passenger configuration. So 10 passengers is a totally normal number.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_Legacy_600

[Kinophile]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1685990377080197121?t=hitRB2uGbV_iM80qshEiXQ&s=19

Leopard working... 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Kinophile

[TheVulture]

8 minutes ago, IanL said:

Lets nip that in the bud. While it is entirely possible the occupants were not who we were told or already dead - but the size of the plane is not a problem. CNN reports the type of plane as and Embraer Legacy 600 which has a 13 passenger configuration and and 8 passenger configuration. So 10 passengers is a totally normal number.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_Legacy_600

And I think there's been unclear reporting on numbers too. There were 10 people on board: 7 passengers and 3 crew. Some places have been reporting 10 passengers (meaning people on board; crew plus actual passengers) and then that getting repeated as 10 passengers plus 3 crew for 13 total. Which is wrong.

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

We can debate this round and round, but I simply do not agree that retaking Crimea and Donbas automatically lead to a Ukrainian total victory.  In fact retaking would only happen after the decisive collapse of the entire RA in the theatre.  Further, at that point the idea that Russia would 1) stop holding a grudge and 2) somehow be incapable of violent action within Ukraine in order to convince itself that the war was still on…are both very weak assumptions.  Finally, the root of this war is not addressed by either retaking land or failure of the RA.  That resides deeply in Russian conative frameworks that need to be re-wired completely and won’t be under the current regime. 

This is the key point (in bold).  Any thoughts of Ukraine retaking Crimea and the Donbas within the next few years without a total Russian military collapse are fantasy.  Pure and simple.  It's one of the only things I disagree with when I hear Ben Hodges speak about the near term.  Russia will NEVER let Crimea go if it has a functioning military.  Even if the rest of Russia is in collapse, they will contest Crimea and make it prohibitively costly for Ukraine to retake it.

The Donbas is different.  Russia would abandon it without a second thought if it needed to divert forces elsewhere EXCEPT that doing so will make it look weak.  Therefore, Russia will not abandon the Donbas unless it has no other choice (i.e. military collapse).

So, any scenario where Ukrainian forces are liberating the pre-2022 Donbas and/or Crimea will mean the Russian military is no longer a cohesive force.  The only thing that would then stand in its way would be the locals.  And here is where I agree 100% with Haiduk.

The Donbas is spent as a military force on its own EVEN IF Russia maintained massive military support.  The DLPR are also economic basket cases and exist only because Russia keeps it subsidized.  There is no way they would either have the will or the means to continuing fighting if direct Russian support evaporated.  What they would likely do is stay militarily active in order to secure some concessions, such as some sort of limited political autonomy.  Whether Ukraine would grant it or not will likely be entirely dependent upon the circumstances at the time.  My point is the people who are still motivated to keep the war going are more likely to run to Russia than continue a futile struggle.  Ukraine has the military force to crush anybody who do continue to fight.

As for Crimea, the bulk of Crimeans supported the takeover by Russia because it literally stated that under its rule the roads would be paved with gold.  The exact opposite happened.  "Carpet baggers" (as we say in the US) came from all over Russia and joined with domestic Crimean mafia (which itself is a Russian enterprise) to rob Crimea blind.  They took over businesses, they took land, they shut down dissent, etc.  This has most certainly disaffected a big chunk of those who initially supported the Russian invasion.  I personally know someone who switched, but also know that his family is still split. 

In the event of Ukrainian forces moving into Crimea the most pro-Russian will leave because they either are Russian or they suspect they won't do so well under Ukrainian rule.  Of the population that remains, it could be split 50/50 between those who at least think Ukraine might treat them better and those who are prepared to not like the change.  But either way, Haiduk is almost certainly correct that none of the latter will raise up arms against Ukrainian forces in any significant way.

Again, this is all predicated on Russian military opposition melting away.  And that will only happen if things get substantially worse for Russia at some point.  Until then, any talk of taking back the pre-2022 Donbas and Crimea is fantasy.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

22 minutes ago, IanL said:

Lets nip that in the bud. While it is entirely possible the occupants were not who we were told or already dead - but the size of the plane is not a problem. CNN reports the type of plane as and Embraer Legacy 600 which has a 13 passenger configuration and and 8 passenger configuration. So 10 passengers is a totally normal number.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_Legacy_600

I think the point wasn't that the plane couldn't carry 10 passengers, rather that it isn't normal practice to fly near capacity.  Which, if true, would indicate something unusual happened.  That is reinforced by the "WTF where they thinking?!?" question about why the top leadership was all in one place at one time within Russia AT ALL, not to mention something so easily used as a means of mass death.

Steve

[paxromana]

4 hours ago, chuckdyke said:

I gave Britannica as reference but you guys still know better. Italy was beaten because the army really didn't fight their natural allies against their natural enemies the Austrians. Mussolini was overrated by Hitler imagine if they had a beter motivation. The Italians should have been able to be able to win in the Mediterranean but the hearts and mind of the armed forces were not into it. Suez Canal was the objective without it Britain was lost. Afrika Korps compared what they had in the Soviet Union was a sideshow. But the Suez Canal was the price. 

You do know what Operation Pedestal was?

The Med was closed to the Brits after the Italian DoW. 

Convoys from Britain to the Far East and Oz/NZ had to go around the Cape ... the Suez Canal didn't stop things, just made them ever so slightly more difficult.

Britain was effectively without the Canal and was not lost.

As for the Italian Armed Forces ... they were a joke. Poorly trained, poorly equipped, poorly led. And easily trashed by O'Connor. 

[Haiduk]

26 minutes ago, IanL said:

Lets nip that in the bud. While it is entirely possible the occupants were not who we were told or already dead - but the size of the plane is not a problem. CNN reports the type of plane as and Embraer Legacy 600 which has a 13 passenger configuration and and 8 passenger configuration. So 10 passengers is a totally normal number.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Embraer_Legacy_600

Even less than 10 - due to passenger list, from these 10 people onboard there were 7 passengers and 3 of crew (2 pilots and stewardess). Also the second Prigozhyn's business jet Embraer 650 also flew to St.Peterburg, but remained intact. 

[A Canadian Cat]

13 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

I cant believe all 3 top Wagner guys would be on same plane. Especially after a coup attempt. These guys aren’t idiots.

I totally agree that it was unwise to all travel together. I'm not sure about that last part though

13 hours ago, kimbosbread said:

Did they all get on the plane already dead? Is the manifest fake (and we tipped Wagner off)?

EDIT: A friend points out that 10 passengers is a lot for a junglet jet.

@Battlefront.com No, I was literally responding to the implication that the jet would not seat 10 passengers. You can feel I missread that but I don't think I did.

Bottom line the plane can easily hold the passengers and crew reported to be on board.

[Battlefront.com]

11 hours ago, billbindc said:

The theory that still fits the facts we know best is that Prigozhin imagined he had enough backing to secure his degrading position and take over the war effort from Shoigu and Gerasimov. It's easy to look back now and think that was a bad bet but...the large majority of the security services did actually either join in or refused to resist the effort. Prigozhin's problem was that the percentage of the former was a lot lower than the latter. Then, like the proverbial dog that caught the car, he didn't know what to do when he had it in his teeth. It's entirely believable to imagine that if he held on a bit more or been less volatile a character he could have won at least in the short term. 

My analysis would be that Prigozhin on his own was incapable of neutralizing the state to that extent and knew that he was dependent on partners in the regime. He had backers in the FSB, GRU, Rosneft and the core governorships who, when it was clear that Moscow there for the taking, held him back because while it's one thing to put a gun to Putin's head it is quite something else to risk a full bore revolution. Without that backing, Prigozhin knew he couldn't go forward and they froze things and used him as a tool to renegotiate the system with Putin. They did, the coup 'failed' and Wagner was sidelined. And as soon as Prigozhin was no longer suit to purpose Putin's vengeance was allowed to go forward. 

Finis. 

This is what I meant about us still having lots of questions, even if we do have enough information to know (broadly) what happened.  The two questions that still remain:

1.  To what extent was Prig the leader of the coup?  The answer could range from "he was the mastermind" all the way to "he was a tool for someone else".

2.  Who really negotiated his surrender?  Could have been Prig, could have been someone else.  The answer is likely based on #1.

We don't know, yet it is very important.  If Prig really lead this and also negotiated the conditions for him to stop marching, then there's probably no real risk of another coup any time soon.  On the other hand, if Prig was a tool and he was sacrificed on behalf of a group that had the power to pull of both, then there still exists a foundation for another coup.

Steve

[A Canadian Cat]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Even less than 10 - due to passenger list, from these 10 people onboard there were 7 passengers and 3 of crew (2 pilots and stewardess). Also the second Prigozhyn's business jet Embraer 650 also flew to St.Peterburg, but remained intact. 

Indeed 10 people on board - 7 passengers and three crew works for the Embraer 600's 8 passenger configuration even.

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, IanL said:

No, I was literally responding to the implication that the jet would not seat 10 passengers. You can feel I missread that but I don't think I did.

Bottom line the plane can easily hold the passengers and crew reported to be on board.

Yup, for sure the plane can hold that many.  But yes, I do not read the quote the same way you do. 

Example... many SUVs and extended cab pickup trucks have seatbelts for 6 people (3 front, 3 rear).  Therefore, they can seat 6.  However, it is unusual to have 6 people in a SUV.  Hell, in the US it is unusual to have more than 1 person in an SUV

Steve

[Haiduk]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

about why the top leadership was all in one place at one time within Russia

Here is a reason why

The source, familiar with Prigozhyn about death of latter:

Prigozhyn was sure, that Putin will forgive him everything and feared nothing. He told he knows many things [about Putin]... Let's see if anything from his archives shows up. Concerning people, with which Prigozyn has lost. They always were flying all three - Prigozhyn, Utkin, Chekalov. Chelalov was responsible for rear, Utkin for combat part of PMC Wagner.  

Edited August 24, 2023 by Haiduk

[paxromana]

5 minutes ago, IanL said:

Indeed 10 people on board - 7 passengers and three crew works for the Embraer 600's 8 passenger configuration even.

So all of them would have had window seats! 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Here is a reason why

The source, familiar with Prigozhyn about death of latter:

Prigozhyn was sure, that Putin will forgive him everything and feared nothing. He told he knows many things [about Putin]... Let's see if anything from his archives shows up. Concerning people, with which Prigozyn has lost. They always were flying all three - Prigozhyn, Utkin, Chekalov. Chelalov was responsible for rear, Utkin for combat part of PMC Wagner.  

Well then, we are once again faced with the most obvious answer... the most likely explanation for anything "mysterious" in Russia is incompetence and/or stupidity and/or hubris.

Steve

[A Canadian Cat]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Example... many SUVs and extended cab pickup trucks have seatbelts for 6 people (3 front, 3 rear).  Therefore, they can seat 6.  However, it is unusual to have 6 people in a SUV

For sure. I'm not sure that's equivalent though. Yes, my car seats 5 but honestly you don't want to be the 5th. Four is what is actually comfortable. But this is a private plane with a standard configuration for 15 or 8. I'm sure there are customized versions too. The point is my car has four real seats and a fifth can be squeezed in you hypothetical SUV has four real seats and six can be squeezed in. This plane has an 8 luxurious seats configuration or a 15 super comfortable seat configuration. No one is squeezing 8 or 10 people on that plane all those passengers are supper comfy right up until the missile blew holes in the fuselage.

Assuming they were actually alive before take off

 

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Hell, in the US it is unusual to have more than 1 person in an SUV

Oh yeah - guilty as charged - except I have a small car at least.

 

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well then, we are once again faced with the most obvious answer... the most likely explanation for anything "mysterious" in Russia is incompetence and/or stupidity and/or hubris.

Yep

[Battlefront.com]

Back to the fighting... this has been a pretty good week for Ukraine.  It appears we are starting to finally see evidence that Russia's ability to continue resisting to the extent it has is decidedly weakening.  The evidence?

1. Ukrainian forces on the ground report the going is much easier than it was for the past two months
2. analysts tracking Russian forces are not seeing new units enter the battle, just old units shifted around
3. both sides' frontline sources confirm that Ukraine has the upper hand with artillery, which is backed by some empirical data (i.e. Oryx and others)
4. deep strikes have been cumulatively effective at creating unfavorable conditions for Russian forces, confirmed by Russian sources (especially noted were recent ammo depot hits)
5. tactically significant gains on the ground by Ukraine and failure of Russian counter attacks
6. Ukraine has increased its presence on the left bank of the Dnepr and Russia seems unable to do anything about it (Russian bloggers are sure angry about this!)
7. Ukraine was able to land on Crimea and conduct a raid.  It also seems to be able to operate deep into Russian territorial waters
8. Russia's offensive activities in Luhansk seem to be long spent and not a threat to Ukraine's eastern front

It is way too soon to say that this is the beginning of a Russian collapse or even a significant setback, but it does seem clear that the nature of the fighting is decidedly different than it has been up until now.  In a good way for Ukraine, bad way for Russia.

Steve

[Kraft]

Intense footage of 30th Brigade doing a mech assault on Russian positions

Fairly graphic!  https://t.me/aerobomber/143

The drone drops a colored smoke grenade to signal the tanks where to shoot

[Battlefront.com]

Good overview of the Lancet:

 

Steve

[dan/california]

So did Ukraine merely destroy this radar? Which would be fantastic. Or did they temporarily capture the the control centers, have time to disassemble the main electronics and pack them in water proof bags, and depart with a couple of prisoners who happen to be the senior techs that kept the thing working? Because that would be off the charts.

Also isn't this a nearly exact copy of a British raid in 1941 or 1942? Do the Russians even HAVE history books anymore?

Edited August 24, 2023 by dan/california

[Sojourner]

11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Do the Russians even HAVE history books anymore

They sure do, and they rewrite them every few years.

[Seedorf81]

Putin reaction on Prig-crash.

https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/nieuws/buitenland/artikel/5403637/poetin-bevestigt-dood-prigozjin-en-condoleert-familie

(Dutch, but scroll a bit down for video in Russian, starts after one annoying advert.)

 

Edited August 24, 2023 by Seedorf81

[Eddy]

46 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Also isn't this a nearly exact copy of a British raid in 1941 or 1942?

Operation Biting - Wikipedia 

This one?

[dan/california]

4 minutes ago, Eddy said:

Operation Biting - Wikipedia 

This one?

 

Yes, that is the one. One of the more significant commando operations of the whole war.

[Seedorf81]

The forementioned video will probably appear everywhere, but here is my crappy translation of Putin's words

"About that planecrash..

My sympathy for the families of the victims.

If (!) Wagner-associates were on plane, I will emphasize that they made a substantial contribution in struggle against neo-nazi's of Ukraine. We know and never will forget that."

 

[Seedorf81]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Yes, that is the one. One of the more significant commando operations of the whole war.

Good old Johnny "Arnhem bridge" Frost!